Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[danlb_2000]

Lowest since June 2nd, and first time under 1k since June 9th. It's Monday though which is usually when the low point of the week is. But least the trend is still in the right direction, and 2 week positivity is still under 5% at 4.54%. Testing is lower overall, but it means fewer feel the need to get tested. Hospitalization has trended downward too.

Let's see where we are in 2 or 3 weeks once the impact of restrictions roll back starts to be seen.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Let's see where we are in 2 or 3 weeks once the impact of restrictions roll back starts to be seen.

that'll take closer to a month

 

[danlb_2000]

that'll take closer to a month

symptoms usually appear in 2 to 5 days. I think in 2 to 3 weeks we could start to see the start of an up swing in cases.

 

[GoofGoof]

I agree with most of what you say. Unfortunately, we can't do the things that will truly put a stop to the virus, such as staying home and avoiding indoor gatherings. We have to go to work, school, stores, doctor's offices, etc. Masks are what we CAN do, and one's attitude towards them depends on how willing you are to accept that doing something that may help is better than doing nothing. I remember being upset by the CDC's initial recommendation stating that one of the "benefits" of masks was their usefulness in reminding people that the virus is present and we need to do the other things (like avoiding prolonged indoor contact with others) that really do work. But my husband was on board with the CDC's reasoning, saying that once the masks are gone, people will go back to business as usual.

Most of the early studies concluded that widespread wearing of masks could inhibit the spread of the virus, but it seems this is on a macro level and assumes people will wear them whenever they are in public, and will wear them correctly. As far as providing protection for individuals, I do remember an instance where two hair stylists had COVID but did not pass it on to any of their clients. But no one can say whether that was because of masks - there was a study that even spouses and family members of COVID patients had only a 27% or 19% chance, respectively, of being infected.

There were some recent reports (I don't know how valid) that wearing a mask could inhibit the amount of virus that enters your system even if you are exposed, resulting in a milder illness. That possibility makes mask-wearing more tolerable for me.

I agree with you about the odds of being infected by momentarily passing someone not wearing a mask. The vast majority of people do not have COVID, and the CDC has not indicated that transmission by so brief an encounter is likely. Like you, I follow the rules, and I am seriously annoyed by others who do not. But I don't think the overly dramatic rhetoric is helpful - these people may be jerks, but they are not "sentencing someone to death."

I don't believe that any and all discussions about masks are useless; information is still coming out (like the report saying masks can, contrary to earlier beliefs, protect the wearer to some extent). What I don't find productive are the fly-by quips calling people idiots or labeling them as selfish simply because they are not persuaded that masks are as effective as others believe. That type of language should be reserved for the people who actually disregard the rules that are in place. There is a difference.

I agree with this. The people showing up at Costco or WDW and challenging mask rules are selfish idiots. It’s healthy for scientists and experts to always be challenging the accepted norms and attempting to poke holes in theories. That’s how the science progresses and knowledge grows. There’s so much we don’t know about Covid and it’s critical at least the professionals continue to gather data and attempt to draw conclusions.

 

[Parker in NYC]

BTW, I still blame you for starting this thread!

#thanksCOVID

 

[Epcotfan21]

Let's see where we are in 2 or 3 weeks once the impact of restrictions roll back starts to be seen.

Certainly seems like Labor Day parties/gatherings didn't have much of an impact, though lifting restrictions and going into phase 3 will have more of an impact.

 

[sullyinMT]

that'll take closer to a month

symptoms usually appear in 2 to 5 days. I think in 2 to 3 weeks we could start to see the start of an up swing in cases.

FL schools have been open about a month and there hasn’t been a massive uptick in cases. In fact, positives in 5-17yo have plateaued. One could argue the decline would have continued instead of stalled, but the huge outbreak that was predicted didn’t happen, either. A lot of that has to do with safety measures in place in the classrooms (a la WDW), so I still think this phase 3 experiment isn’t going to go as well as the schools.

 

[danlb_2000]

Do you have links for those 'sources'?

Healthcare Workers

COVID-19 guidance, tools, and resources for healthcare workers.

www.cdc.gov

 

[MisterPenguin]

Healthcare Workers

COVID-19 guidance, tools, and resources for healthcare workers.

www.cdc.gov

No, I mean the CDC graphic which says "COVID LESS DEADLY THAN THE FLU"

 

[MuteSuperstar]

we should all wear a mask while taking a shower

Point out one person who has said that. (I know, I know, it's a "joke").

 

[danlb_2000]

No, I mean the CDC graphic which says "COVID LESS DEADLY THAN THE FLU"

No, because that is very likely made up. If I am reading the CDC data right, their best estimate is .5% for ages 50-69 which would be 5 times worse then the flu numbers cited in the original post. and 70+ would be 5.4% which is 10 limes worse. It's a little hard to compare since the original post cited a single Flu number but the CDC breaks it down by age.

Also, the CDC data is showing Infection Fatality Rate, and the article is quoting Flu Case Fatality Rate which are two different things.

 

[Epcotfan21]

Fauci says it's 'very concerning' that Florida is re-opening bars and restaurants

Sunshine State residents are still testing positive for coronavirus at a rate of more than 10 percent.

news.yahoo.com

How is it that John Hopkins has Florida at just over a 10% rolling rate over the last 7 days, while the Florida Department of Health data says completely otherwise?

 

[Kevin_W]

Most of the early studies concluded that widespread wearing of masks could inhibit the spread of the virus, but it seems this is on a macro level and assumes people will wear them whenever they are in public, and will wear them correctly. As far as providing protection for individuals, I do remember an instance where two hair stylists had COVID but did not pass it on to any of their clients. But no one can say whether that was because of masks - there was a study that even spouses and family members of COVID patients had only a 27% or 19% chance, respectively, of being infected.

There were some recent reports (I don't know how valid) that wearing a mask could inhibit the amount of virus that enters your system even if you are exposed, resulting in a milder illness. That possibility makes mask-wearing more tolerable for me.

Ohio State's Medical Center (aka big hospital) released a report over the weekend. Based on serum antibody testing, they concluded that ~3.3% of Ohioans had antibodies to Covid, while only 1% of staff at the hospital did. (https://www.dispatch.com/story/life...among-ohio-state-hospital-workers/3515486001/).

Presumably hospital workers have a higher exposure than the general public, so you can conclude that PPE does indeed work (albeit proper PPE used appropriately).

I agree with your second point - I have also seen a couple articles that wearing a mask even if it is more about "protecting the other person" may also ameliorate the disease if you are exposed yourself.

 

[Kevin_W]

That Fauci and Redfield penned article is from February, I'm not sure either of them stands behind it today.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejme2002387

Right, it speculates on early data coming out of China. There is literally thousands of times more data now.

 

[danlb_2000]

Fauci says it's 'very concerning' that Florida is re-opening bars and restaurants

Sunshine State residents are still testing positive for coronavirus at a rate of more than 10 percent.

news.yahoo.com

How is it that John Hopkins has Florida at just over a 10% rolling rate over the last 7 days, while the Florida Department of Health data says completely otherwise?

Looks like John Hopkins calculates in a different way. They do this so that they are showing the same calculation for every state:

From John Hopkins:
"looks at number of cases divided by number of negative tests plus number of cases"

From the Florida datA:
"This percent is the number of people who test PCR- or antigen-positive for the first time divided by all the people tested that day, excluding people who have previously tested positive."

 

[SamusAranX]

The cited estimated death rates are correct, when i looked at the link @danlb_2000 shared.

still doesn't mean we should throw all precaution to the wind

 

[Kevin_W]

Looks like John Hopkins calculates in a different way. They do this so that they are showing the same calculation for every state:

From John Hopkins:
"looks at number of cases divided by number of negative tests plus number of cases"

From the Florida datA:
"This percent is the number of people who test PCR- or antigen-positive for the first time divided by all the people tested that day, excluding people who have previously tested positive."

Right - we talked about this before but it's confusing.

The Florida calculation makes more sense to me - it excludes people who are hospitalized and are tested daily. the John Hopkins data treats them as a new positive every day for it's calculation of % positive. (That's valid too, just that it makes less sense to me.)

 

[danlb_2000]

Right - we talked about this before but it's confusing.

The Florida calculation makes more sense to me - it excludes people who are hospitalized and are tested daily. the John Hopkins data treats them as a new positive every day for it's calculation of % positive. (That's valid too, just that it makes less sense to me.)

John Hopkins agrees that the Florida way is better, but since they don't get the necessary data to do that calculation from all states they go with method that can be applied equally to all states.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I didn't flu statistics quoted in the post, maybe i missed it; I just assumed it is NOT less deadly then the flu, as that's been a well known fact since early on in the pandemic (at least here in the US).

We did these calculations last week. So far for the US, COVID-19 has a 22% more deadly case mortality rate than our worst flu season in the last 10 years. In absolute numbers, it is much worse too, although I don't remember the exact math.

 

[DisneyCane]

We did these calculations last week. So far for the US, COVID-19 has a 22% more deadly case mortality rate than our worst flu season in the last 10 years. In absolute numbers, it is much worse too, although I don't remember the exact math.

Case mortality yes, infection fatality is still very up in the air for COVID-19. I don't think there are asymptomatic influenza infections for a similar reduction from case mortality to infection mortality.