Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[mmascari]

With 31 million confirmed infections in the world, and tons of scientists looking at the problem you would think we would have a better handle on what the most common methods of transmission are by now.

There's less eyeballs and dollars there then in the other reporting. Science reporting is hard and full of nuance because science is hard and full of nuance. All the articles overstating limited developments are easy examples.

On the other side, political reporting, and political reporting framing of a competition between two sides has lots of eyeballs and dollars. Even if it's total garbage reporting, it's easy and cheap to produce. A much better ROI for the reporting organization.

This, and many other topics, have all been taken over by the political reporting staffs of many news outlets. I think this has lead to an overall loss of value in the reporting.

I think we're pretty safe on knowing transmission is less risky than with the measles but more than something needing physical contact. I haven't heard any reports of a no contact simply entered a room someone was previously in transmission as could occur for measles.

 

[Aries1975]

Just need to say my 27 year old son has been tested positive today. He has not been to pubs, not seen his friends, worn a mask whenever recommended and when not, has socially distanced but has been to work. My husband is a diabetic 71 year old and I am a large lady aged 63. We have only been out twice since March and a few trips to our local park well socially distanced. He is our bubble and is now terrified that he has given it to us. We have arranged a test for tomorrow morning just 1 mile from our house here in the U.K. It would seem that however careful you are the virus will indeed virus. I am scared for my husband and son..........but hopefully all will be fine, but am not looking forward to the next 2 weeks whilst waiting for symptoms to get worse.

Thoughts and prayers for you and your family. Hopefully, the frustration of waiting will evaporate when you receive the results.

 

[Chi84]

I think we're pretty safe on knowing transmission is less risky than with the measles but more than something needing physical contact. I haven't heard any reports of a no contact simply entered a room someone was previously in transmission as could occur for measles.

This is true. Most of the superspreader events I've heard about involved large indoor gatherings where people are in prolonged close contact, which is something that was considered dangerous from the start. I remember a huge outdoor event in Illinois - it involved boats, but there was a lot of socializing before and after, and I didn't hear of COVID spreading as a result.

It seems pretty clear the virus can spread through the air, but whether or not it meets the scientific definition of airborne is still being debated. It will be interesting to see how protective measures change as more is known about transmission. It turns out that some of the things we were doing initially as far as sanitizing surfaces and the like were less important than others, such as wearing masks. I get the feeling (which could be wrong) that some posters are fearful of information that would lead people to abandon any protective measures regardless of their effectiveness. I agree that, right now, doing more rather than less is necessary, but hopefully that will change as more studies are done and we can become more targeted in our approach.

 

[Disstevefan1]

It seems to me, most folks are in the grove with the mask/don’t touch/sanitize hands/distance stuff and it’s working. The current problem seems to be college parties where the rules are knowingly not followed.

 

[Parker in NYC]

It seems to me, most folks are in the grove with the mask/don’t touch/sanitize hands/distance stuff and it’s working. The current problem seems to be college parties where the rules are knowingly not followed.

College kids will college but here's a thought. Maybe the parents should be setting a better example.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Just need to say my 27 year old son has been tested positive today. He has not been to pubs, not seen his friends, worn a mask whenever recommended and when not, has socially distanced but has been to work. My husband is a diabetic 71 year old and I am a large lady aged 63. We have only been out twice since March and a few trips to our local park well socially distanced. He is our bubble and is now terrified that he has given it to us. We have arranged a test for tomorrow morning just 1 mile from our house here in the U.K. It would seem that however careful you are the virus will indeed virus. I am scared for my husband and son..........but hopefully all will be fine, but am not looking forward to the next 2 weeks whilst waiting for symptoms to get worse.

I am sending positive energy your way! I truly hope you all stay negative and your son is minimally effected by this.

If are you are able please share your journey with us. I think it’s so important to hear real people discuss their experience, especially on this forum where weird conspiracy theorists show up and share terrible fake information. But only if you are able. Focus on you and the family first!

 

[Chi84]

College kids will college but here's a thought. Maybe the parents should be setting a better example.

I don't know about that. I think some college kids look at the example being set by their parents and do the exact opposite. The first taste of freedom does that to some kids, regardless of upbringing. Fortunately, I think those cases are in the minority; clearly, parents should always set a good example.

 

[Parker in NYC]

I don't know about that. I think some college kids look at the example being set by their parents and do the exact opposite. The first taste of freedom does that to some kids, regardless of upbringing. Fortunately, I think those cases are in the minority; clearly, parents should always set a good example.

Or, high-profile adults. And/or low-profile adults with influence.

 

[GoofGoof]

College kids will college but here's a thought. Maybe the parents should be setting a better example.

So true

 

[MisterPenguin]

Update to the vaccine timeline outline in red...

Reading about the status of various vaccines have left me confused as to which vaccines are which and where they are in development and who's saying what about how far along they are. So, I made an outline...


Monderna/NIH

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -20C, and 2 doses)​

​

Warp Speed: $2.5B, for 100M doses​

​

Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people, enrollment completes in September​

​

Earliest according to CDC: “Vaccine B” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 1M doses by Oct, 10M by Nov, 15M by Dec.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: by the end of 2020.​

Biontech/Pfizer/Fosun

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -70C, and 2 doses)​

​

Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people​

​

Warp Speed: $1.9B for 100M doses (by Dec?)​

​

Earliest according to CDC: “Vaccine A” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 2M doses by end of Oct, 10-20M doses by Nov, 20-30M dosed by Dec.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Regulatory review in Oct. which could theoretically lead to early end of Phase 3.​

AstraZeneca/Oxford

​

Type: altered chimp adenovirus​

​

Warp Speed: $1.2B​

​

Phase 3: in progress, recently started​

​

Earliest according to CDC: Doses can be delivered by Oct.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Doses available by the end of 2020.​

Johnson & Johnson / Beth Israel

Type: altered adenovirus (the one they used for an Ebola vaccine) [1 dose, only refrigeration to store]​

​

Warp Speed: $456M (+$1B if proven successful for 100M doses)​

​

Phase 3: just started, but will use a much larger test group (60k people), could be done by the end of 2020​

​

Earliest according to CDC: Nothing from CDC yet about this vaccine.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Beginning of 2021. Plan to make a billion doses.​

Phase 3:

Final phase of trials. A large number of people are given either the vaccine or placebo, double blind​

​

Wait to see if there are negative reactions to the vaccine. If there are, vaccine is scrubbed.​

​

Wait to see how much more the vaccinated group is protected compared to the placebo. To be effective, people should be at least 50% more protected.​

​

If early results show extraordinarily good results, then this Phase can end early, because it would be unethical to leave those who received the placebo to be unprotected by an effective vaccine – this is what leads to an “October vaccine,” which, is only a result of extraordinarily good results.​

​

An independent review board evaluates the effectiveness. The FDA will not approve (or, is not supposed to approve) a vaccine without the board's go-ahead.​

​

In addition to governmental approval (or "fast-tracking"), the manufacturers themselves can decide not to release the vaccine until what they consider are appropriate evaluations are made. And, in fact, have pledged to "follow the science" and not release the vaccine until large trials and the science show that it is both safe and effective.​

In short, as Dr. Fauci has said, an October vaccine is not impossible, just very unlikely.

 

[MisterPenguin]

 

[Parker in NYC]

In addition to governmental approval (or "fast-tracking"), the manufacturers themselves can decide not to release the vaccine until what they consider are appropriate evaluations are made. And, in fact, have pledged to "follow the science" and not release the vaccine until large trials and the science show that it is both safe and effective.​

Praise Jebus. Some GOOD news.

 

[rowrbazzle]

Isn't this citing an article that the CDC has since said was a draft and not meant for public consumption?

It discusses the change and retraction of updated CDC guidelines, but those events aren't really the "point" of the article. As I said, I thought it was informative, particularly in terms of how the virus may or may not be infectious in aerosols.

 

[danlb_2000]

Update to the vaccine timeline outline in red...

Reading about the status of various vaccines have left me confused as to which vaccines are which and where they are in development and who's saying what about how far along they are. So, I made an outline...


Monderna/NIH

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -20C, and 2 doses)​

​

Warp Speed: $2.5B, for 100M doses​

​

Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people, enrollment completes in September​

​

Earliest according to CDC: “Vaccine B” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 1M doses by Oct, 10M by Nov, 15M by Dec.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: by the end of 2020.​

Biontech/Pfizer/Fosun

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -70C, and 2 doses)​

​

Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people​

​

Warp Speed: $1.9B for 100M doses (by Dec?)​

​

Earliest according to CDC: “Vaccine A” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 2M doses by end of Oct, 10-20M doses by Nov, 20-30M dosed by Dec.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Regulatory review in Oct. which could theoretically lead to early end of Phase 3.​

AstraZeneca/Oxford

​

Type: altered chimp adenovirus​

​

Warp Speed: $1.2B​

​

Phase 3: in progress, recently started​

​

Earliest according to CDC: Doses can be delivered by Oct.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Doses available by the end of 2020.​

Johnson & Johnson / Beth Israel

Type: altered adenovirus (the one they used for an Ebola vaccine) [1 dose, only refrigeration to store]​

​

Warp Speed: $456M (+$1B if proven successful for 100M doses)​

​

Phase 3: just started, but will use a much larger test group (60k people), could be done by the end of 2020​

​

Earliest according to CDC: Nothing from CDC yet about this vaccine.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Beginning of 2021. Plane to make a billion doses.​

Phase 3:

Final phase of trials. A large number of people are given either the vaccine or placebo, double blind​

​

Wait to see if there are negative reactions to the vaccine. If there are, vaccine is scrubbed.​

​

Wait to see how much more the vaccinated group is protected compared to the placebo. To be effective, people should be at least 50% more protected.​

​

If early results show extraordinarily good results, then this Phase can end early, because it would be unethical to leave those who received the placebo to be unprotected by an effective vaccine – this is what leads to an “October vaccine,” which, is only a result of extraordinarily good results.​

​

An independent review board evaluates the effectiveness. The FDA will not approve (or, is not supposed to approve) a vaccine without the board's go-ahead.​

​

In addition to governmental approval (or "fast-tracking"), the manufacturers themselves can decide not to release the vaccine until what they consider are appropriate evaluations are made. And, in fact, have pledged to "follow the science" and not release the vaccine until large trials and the science show that it is both safe and effective.​

In short, as Dr. Fauci has said, an October vaccine is not impossible, just very unlikely.

I wonder what happens is two or more of these vaccines become available at around the same time? Will there be a focus on distributing just one, or will different geographic areas get different ones, or will it vary from one vaccination site to another?

 

[MisterPenguin]

I wonder what happens is two or more of these vaccines become available at around the same time? Will there be a focus on distributing just one, or will different geographic areas get different ones, or will it vary from one vaccination site to another?

I'm just going to get as many different vaccine shots as possible. Gotta collect them all!!

 

[Parker in NYC]

I'm just going to get as many different vaccine shots as possible. Gotta collect them all!!

I hear it's the latest addition to Oga's. The $2838.22+tax Veruna Vaccine.

 

[michmousefan]

I'm just going to get as many different vaccine shots as possible. Gotta collect them all!!

Seriously, what *is* the protocol there? Can individuals get different vaccines? Are there interactions expected between vaccine A, B and C? For example, can you get shots of A and C but not B? Or are they all safe to use in combo with one another?

 

[BigThunderMatt]

College kids will college but here's a thought. Maybe the parents should be setting a better example.

Can confirm. I work for a university. The audacity of the parents putting the blame on us because we're not "doing enough" is mind boggling. We're a school, not a prison. There's only so much we can do to police behavior and they'd be on us with litigation so fast if we attempted expulsion for multiple violations. The root of the problem is your insistence on sending your child to an on-campus school environment in the middle of a pandemic. If you hadn't been applying so much pressure for there to be an in-person fall term, they wouldn't even be in this situation right now.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Seriously, what *is* the protocol there? Can individuals get different vaccines? Are there interactions expected between vaccine A, B and C? For example, can you get shots of A and C but not B? Or are they all safe to use in combo with one another?

Just a wild guess on my part is that they'd act as boosters.

 

[michmousefan]

Just a wild guess on my part is that they'd act as boosters.

That's what I'd think as well... hopefully in the rush to get all of these vaccines approved those questions are being asked at some level.