Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[gmajew]

Different numbers measure different things. The total case numbers, for instance, are important to know because there are fixed resources like ICU and hospital beds that don't change. If the total case number gets large enough, hospitals are no longer able to treat patients. The positivity rate measures how the number of tests being done compares to the number of people infected. All of these things indicate that there is community spread.



We should be really clear that there is no "normal curve" of the disease. This is a highly transmissible respiratory infection that will rapidly spread if left unchecked. What all of these numbers indicate is really how effective the public health response is.

So do you believe that NY numbers are accurate? Or did they have way more cases?

My point on it runs it course is that we were told to do these things to stop the stress on the hospital system etc... If NY numbers were as many study have said NY has had way more cases then reported is the course no matter what you do besides locking everyone in their house this path?

We cannot lock everything down for ever so we have to find a balance but we need to know what the true results are....

 

[gmajew]

Were they ill or you just decide to have them tested?

Athens County in Ohio had a 50% positive week and one of my staff tested positive so we tested everyone. Athens is a small small town so a test rate that high left us no choice....

 

[DCBaker]

"Orlando has been selected as a site for a clinical trial of a possible COVID-19 vaccine.

The trial will take place at the Orlando Immunology Center according to OIC it is one of 33 other sites in the country selected for participants study enrollment starting this summer, along with research sites in other countries.

It will also be the only clinical trial site in Florida.

This study aims to evaluate 30,000 people at high risk for COVID infection, including healthcare workers,  to demonstrate the vaccine efficacy in preventing COVID-19."

Orlando selected to host clinical trial for possible COVID-19 vaccine

The trial will take place at the Orlando Immunology Center according to OIC it is one of 33 other sites in the country selected for participants study enrollment starting this summer, along with re…

www.wfla.com

 

[Kevin_W]

No country in the world is testing nearly at the levels we are. There’s always a lot of talk about how Europe has done so much better then us. One thing they haven’t done is test at these crazy levels.

Now don’t bite my head off, this is purely conjecture on my part, but it makes some sense.

Maybe we are testing too many people. Maybe we should be doing much more targeted testing, rather then testing 700-800 thousand people a day. We are capturing a staggering amount of not sick people, and it’s hurting 1. accuracy of testing. And 2. The timing of results.

Perhaps a more focused approach is the way to go.

On a pure number basis, no. But on a per capita basis? Sure. Here's one:

The UK isn't quite with us, but close. And a few nations are ahead of us per capita, but not many because we have done a good job scaling up testing.

As to your other points:

1. No, more testing does not hurt accuracy of testing.
2. Yes, we are capturing a staggering amount of non-Covid patients... but are capturing an even more staggering amount of positive Covid patients.

Certainly backlogs are bad, but people are not being frivolously tested. Only those who have a reasonable chance they may have been exposed or who have symptoms. Unfortunately, those two camps are quite large.

 

[GoofGoof]

"Orlando has been selected as a site for a clinical trial of a possible COVID-19 vaccine.

The trial will take place at the Orlando Immunology Center according to OIC it is one of 33 other sites in the country selected for participants study enrollment starting this summer, along with research sites in other countries.

It will also be the only clinical trial site in Florida.

This study aims to evaluate 30,000 people at high risk for COVID infection, including healthcare workers,  to demonstrate the vaccine efficacy in preventing COVID-19."

Orlando selected to host clinical trial for possible COVID-19 vaccine

The trial will take place at the Orlando Immunology Center according to OIC it is one of 33 other sites in the country selected for participants study enrollment starting this summer, along with re…

www.wfla.com

Well that’s one positive to come from the spike in cases. At least they have a good chance of seeing if the vaccine works. If nobody in the placebo group gets infected then the trial is a failure.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I suppose it could all be fake news. When the governor says it’s a problem on the record in a press conference I tend to believe it but who knows, these days anything is possible.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article244251047.html

I just got off the phone with a good friend of mine. He works in healthcare, a mobile nurse of sorts.(physical therapist) Does more then that but can’t list everything he does because I really don’t know. Anyway, he got symptoms last weds.. running a fever.. throat raw, other things. Went to doctor Thursday. Doc says he thinks it could be Lyme disease but can’t do anything for him until he gets a negative for Covid.(he had a negative just the week before). He was just able to get a test this morning,4 days after the doctors visit. They told him to expect results 24-72 hrs. He explained that a lot of his clients and nursing homes he goes into depend on him finding out quickly. They said 24-72 hrs again. So here we have a healthcare worker, in PA and still has to wait 2-3 days to find out of hes positive. The whole system is screwed up.

 

[October82]

So do you believe that NY numbers are accurate? Or did they have way more cases?

Full disclosure that I haven't looked at the NY numbers specifically in enough detail to give a thorough answer to this question. However, in general, we know that we have not been doing enough testing to have reliable estimates for the total number of cases in light of the high percentage of people which do not show symptoms.

My point on it runs it course is that we were told to do these things to stop the stress on the hospital system etc... If NY numbers were as many study have said NY has had way more cases then reported is the course no matter what you do besides locking everyone in their house this path?

I'm not completely sure that I understand what you're saying here, so please clarify if I've misunderstood. But yes, I think we should be prepared for the possibility that stay at home orders are necessary to prevent this. It's not something anybody wants, but it's a possibility if I want to prevent both overwhelmed hospitals and lower the overall number of people who will die or suffer long term consequences.

We cannot lock everything down for ever so we have to find a balance but we need to know what the true results are....

To be clear, I am not saying that you are wrong about the need to consider the consequences that stay at home orders have as well, but there may not be a way to "balance" things. It may be that this virus is transmissible and dangerous enough that even high levels of mask compliance, social distancing, testing and contact tracing are not sufficient to slow the spread. To be clear, this does not seem to be the case based on the success that Asian and European nations have had, but as we move into the Fall, we will expect to see more cases and a larger hospital burden. It remains to be seen what public health measures will prove necessary and effective.

 

[chrisvee]

I just got off the phone with a good friend of mine. He works in healthcare, a mobile nurse of sorts.(physical therapist) Does more then that but can’t list everything he does because I really don’t know. Anyway, he got symptoms last weds.. running a fever.. throat raw, other things. Went to doctor Thursday. Doc says he thinks it could be Lyme disease but can’t do anything for him until he gets a negative for Covid.(he had a negative just the week before). He was just able to get a test this morning,4 days after the doctors visit. They told him to expect results 24-72 hrs. He explained that a lot of his clients and nursing homes he goes into depend on him finding out quickly. They said 24-72 hrs again. So here we have a healthcare worker, in PA and still has to wait 2-3 days to find out of holes positive. The whole system is screwed up.

PA consistently falls to the bottom 5-6 states for testing target (in the 70s) so I’m not surprised turnaround is also an issue.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

PA consistently falls to the bottom 5-6 states for testing target (in the 70s) so I’m not surprised turnaround is also an issue.

That 2-3 days I guess is because he is a healthcare worker. I’m guessing, but for me it would be a week? It’s just unreal.

 

[mickeymiss]

I gave up trying to find wipes. I was at a CVS the other day and I couldn’t believe my eyes, there were finally antibacterial wipes available. 4 months later.

Staples had clorox wipes. It was like Christmas came early. We needed some for general use. I don't know how important they are for covid. The data about surfaces is unclear.

 

[GoofGoof]

That 2-3 days I guess is because he is a healthcare worker. I’m guessing, but for me it would be a week? It’s just unreal.

My niece was tested at one of the drive-thru locations on a Monday and they got the results Tuesday evening. So a little over 24 hours later. That was a little while back so I’m not sure if the demand has picked up.

 

[Angelo721]

I understand you get tested because you have symptoms or you need to for work, school, sports, etc. But are people getting tested just because? Hey its Wednesday and we are not doing anything, lets go get tested?

I saw a Doctor on youtube (sorry I do not have a link). He said at his hospital ALL patients who come in regardless of the situation (i.e., guns hot, broken arm, heart attack) are marked as COVID positive. The Dr at the end of his shift needs to remove the Covid positive mark if the covid test comes back negative. And most doctors are not doing this.

I have seen posts from people who were in line to get tested, filled out the paperwork. Thought the line was too long and left WITHOUT getting tested and 3 days later get a call that they are positive.

 

[GoofGoof]

Staples had clorox wipes. It was like Christmas came early. We needed some for general use. I don't know how important they are for covid. The data about surfaces is unclear.

Surface transmission is definitely possible. When the CDC updated their website a while back it created confusion and some news stories seemed to imply the guidance was revised to eliminate surface transmission as a possible way to be infected. The CDC then clarified that it’s still possible to be infected from surface contact but that’s just not the primary way the virus spreads. Here’s the exact quote for the CDC:

“The primary and most important mode of transmission for COVID-19 is through close contact from person-to-person. Based on data from lab studies on COVID-19 and what we know about similar respiratory diseases, it may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this isn’t thought to be the main way the virus spreads.“

Moral of the story is keep washing your hands frequently and use disinfectant wipes or other cleaner on potential infected surfaces.

Coronavirus Disease 2019

CDC provides credible COVID-19 health information to the U.S.

www.cdc.gov

 

[GoofGoof]

I understand you get tested because you have symptoms or you need to for work, school, sports, etc. But are people getting tested just because? Hey its Wednesday and we are not doing anything, lets go get tested?

I saw a Doctor on youtube (sorry I do not have a link). He said at his hospital ALL patients who come in regardless of the situation (i.e., guns hot, broken arm, heart attack) are marked as COVID positive. The Dr at the end of his shift needs to remove the Covid positive mark if the covid test comes back negative. And most doctors are not doing this.

I have seen posts from people who were in line to get tested, filled out the paperwork. Thought the line was too long and left WITHOUT getting tested and 3 days later get a call that they are positive.

Problem solved then. There really aren’t many new cases (just fake positives), most of the people in the hospital who are being classified as Covid positive really aren’t and we already saw from previous posts that deaths have been counted wrong. Maybe the people Interviewed in various news stories who claim to be survivors or who lost loved ones are just crisis actors too. Anything is possible.

 

[Lirael]

I understand you get tested because you have symptoms or you need to for work, school, sports, etc. But are people getting tested just because? Hey its Wednesday and we are not doing anything, lets go get tested?

I know my reply is... very irrelevant given I'm not in the USA but just in case you are curious for a general, world view: here people are absolutely getting tested even if they don't have symptoms. Places have been advertising two types of tests: for those who have symptoms and think they currently have it, and for those who don't have anything right now but want to know if they're immune. People who have money to spare or really think they caught Covid before have been doing the immunity test. Even pharmacys have been offering a blood test with the results in an hour. My parents never had any symptoms, but they're retired so had time to spare and went to do an immunity one (negative)

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Problem solved then. There really aren’t many new cases (just fake positives), most of the people in the hospital who are being classified as Covid positive really aren’t and we already saw from previous posts that deaths have been counted wrong. Maybe the people Interviewed in various news stories who claim to be survivors or who lost loved ones are just crisis actors too. Anything is possible.

Don’t open that can of worms. They are the worst scum of human society. There are millions that follow the people spouting that garbage. Ugh.

 

[Angelo721]

Problem solved then. There really aren’t many new cases (just fake positives), most of the people in the hospital who are being classified as Covid positive really aren’t and we already saw from previous posts that deaths have been counted wrong. Maybe the people Interviewed in various news stories who claim to be survivors or who lost loved ones are just crisis actors too. Anything is possible.

So the idea that the numbers are messed up a bit or a lot is so far fetched that it can't be true.

The bottom line is we are divided as a nation again. One Side, Call it Side A thinks that we are all going to die. Side B thinks this is all BS and not much worse than the common cold. Neither side will convince the other of their point. We have had 1701 pages of side A arguments and side B rebuttals. Has any of us changed out minds on the subject? Probably not.

 

[Communicora]

I understand you get tested because you have symptoms or you need to for work, school, sports, etc. But are people getting tested just because? Hey its Wednesday and we are not doing anything, lets go get tested?

I saw a Doctor on youtube (sorry I do not have a link). He said at his hospital ALL patients who come in regardless of the situation (i.e., guns hot, broken arm, heart attack) are marked as COVID positive. The Dr at the end of his shift needs to remove the Covid positive mark if the covid test comes back negative. And most doctors are not doing this.

I have seen posts from people who were in line to get tested, filled out the paperwork. Thought the line was too long and left WITHOUT getting tested and 3 days later get a call that they are positive.

It's irresponsible to circulate claims like this without linking to the evidence. I do believe hospitals might flag patients as potentially covid positive if they haven't been tested. It seems like a smart way to indicate extra caution is required especially if they don't have enough PPE to behave as though every patient is positive. This would be much like how they put wristbands on people with a fall risk. I am sorry, but I simply do not believe they are labeling them as covid positive in their medical record and then changing it after a test.

 

[GoofGoof]

So the idea that the numbers are messed up a bit or a lot is so far fetched that it can't be true.

The bottom line is we are divided as a nation again. One Side, Call it Side A thinks that we are all going to die. Side B thinks this is all BS and not much worse than the common cold. Neither side will convince the other of their point. We have had 1701 pages of side A arguments and side B rebuttals. Has any of us changed out minds on the subject? Probably not.

I said anything is possible so by definition it is not so far fetched that it can’t be true. My intent here is not to change anyone’s mind. You or anyone else have every right to believe whatever you want. Maybe this is all a hoax and there are multiple conspiracy theories at play keeping it going. Who knows.

The only thing I ask of people is that they follow the rules laid out by the government and private businesses and that they use common sense and good judgment when making decisions. Believing that this is a hoax is not a justification for acting how you want or not following rules. The rules are the rules and if there’s enough proof out there that the numbers are wrong then bring it to the government leaders who make the rules and have them change things. What’s a little frustrating is to see so many people use their own personal opinions as a basis for not doing what is asked of them. IMHO most people don’t really believe these conspiracy theories they just want an excuse to not follow rules.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I understand you get tested because you have symptoms or you need to for work, school, sports, etc. But are people getting tested just because? Hey its Wednesday and we are not doing anything, lets go get tested?

I saw a Doctor on youtube (sorry I do not have a link). He said at his hospital ALL patients who come in regardless of the situation (i.e., guns hot, broken arm, heart attack) are marked as COVID positive. The Dr at the end of his shift needs to remove the Covid positive mark if the covid test comes back negative. And most doctors are not doing this.

I have seen posts from people who were in line to get tested, filled out the paperwork. Thought the line was too long and left WITHOUT getting tested and 3 days later get a call that they are positive.

What is far more likely is that everyone admitted to the hospital is under contact and airborne precautions until their COVID test returns negative. That's a big difference from labeling everyone "COVID positive". And because caring for someone under those precautions chews up a lot more time and resources, you can bet that as soon as the test comes back negative, the isolation precautions get removed.

Because everyone on the care team has access to a patient's chart, there's no way a single doctor failing to update their status would go unnoticed.