Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[MisterPenguin]

Behave as you will.

A lot of writing for someone who completely missed the point. This isn't a lag of days, it's a lag of MONTHS. This week has seen over 3000 deaths from May 2nd and earlier reported. If you want to use that to form a trend line, I mean, be my guest. But be upfront about it.

So rather than the trend line going up recently, the whole line should have been much higher all along.

That's not comforting.

Also, all the states that are now reporting a rise in death rates... they're all doing the same thing in a coordinated fashion to count old deaths as new?

 

[oceanbreeze77]

NOTHING HAS CHANGED IN THE WAY LAG DEATHS ARE REPORTED!!!!

If you have been paying attention this is LITERALLY how they have presented deaths since MARCH!!!

You are not coming up with some new information in how we are being tricked.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I find it fascinating that people are "discovering" information that has actually been around for months to try and use it to show how there's some conspiracy to lie to the American people.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Hah. Xdan replies to one of my posts. And the swarm kicks off. Like bees to honey.

Sometimes the bee comes in strong with the stinger out. You need to grab the swatter on occasion.

 

[xdan0920]

So rather than the trend line going up recently, the whole line should have been much higher all along.

That's not comforting.

Also, all the states that are now reporting a rise in death rates... they're all doing the same thing in a coordinated fashion to count old deaths as new?

It’s not a coordinated effort. Or a conspiracy. Or comforting. It simply is.

 

[kong1802]

Spoken like someone with a very limited understanding of math. You don't throw out the 4k. You had in 36k negative. Then redo the math. Get it?

Is math the thing with numbers? Oh yeah....lol

So add that 36k to the negative total which was what, 1 million?

Do you see how that doesn't statistically or materially change anything?

 

[xdan0920]

NOTHING HAS CHANGED IN THE WAY LAG DEATHS ARE REPORTED!!!!

If you have been paying attention this is LITERALLY how they have presented deaths since MARCH!!!

You are not coming up with some new information in how we are being tricked.

Simply isn’t true. Look at the chart.

 

[Andrew C]

Sometimes the bee comes in strong with the stinger out. You need to grab the swatter on occasion.

Ehh... This is how it started...and some people cannot help themselves but respond.

Last 4 days of numbers of tests are definitely trending up compared to past days and weeks. We will see...

Maybe more labs are finally reporting negatives as well as positives.

We'll have to wait on the alachua chronicle to confirm.

 

[Casper Gutman]

It’s not a coordinated effort. Or a conspiracy. Or comforting. It simply is.

What conclusions should we draw?

 

[GoofGoof]

With the significant increase in cases and hospitalizations, was there ever a question this would result in an increase in deaths eventually? I thought the question was always how many and how long? What would the lag be? And that we should be able to avoid major increases and numbers we have seem previously due to better treatments and greater protections for nursing homes.

It was never a question from the people with a level head looking at this from a fact based standpoint. There are still people who believe the death count is fake, the percent positive is fake, anything that doesn’t fit their narrative and looks bad is fake. So if you are asking if the vast majority of people fully expected an increase in cases, hospitalization and deaths then the answer is yes, but for a small group there is definitely still a question.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Ehh... This is how it started...and some people cannot help themselves but respond.

I mean... I’d still like to see the spot on the Florida dashboard talking about unreported positives and read an analysis of the impact and meaning of that lack of reporting from a reliable source.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Hong Kong Disneyland is closing again.

 

[baymenxpac]

So rather than the trend line going up recently, the whole line should have been much higher all along.

That's not comforting.

Also, all the states that are now reporting a rise in death rates... they're all doing the same thing in a coordinated fashion to count old deaths as new?

NOTHING HAS CHANGED IN THE WAY LAG DEATHS ARE REPORTED!!!!

If you have been paying attention this is LITERALLY how they have presented deaths since MARCH!!!

You are not coming up with some new information in how we are being tricked.

i'll speak for myself and say that i do not believe i am trying to be "tricked."

in general, what i am concerned about is that here in the US, we are trying to have a national, real-time debate in the landscape with the following challenges:

- disjointed, non-uniform, and poorly-defined data
- crummy, lazy reporting
- agendas and/or confirmation bias directing virtually all parts of the discussion
- critical decisions based on potentially false premises

the idea is that no one wants their loved ones to die of this thing, right? then we need to understand what this *thing* is, and the only way to do that is to figure out when it hit us the hardest, why it could or could not be changing, who is at risk, and how we operate.

we're just not doing that, and this thread is pretty instructive on how we get bogged down in our own worldviews

 

[xdan0920]

What conclusions should we draw?

I don’t much care what conclusions you draw.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Ehh... This is how it started...and some people cannot help themselves but respond.

I get that. But sometimes you see the bee in the corner.. know what it’s done before.. might want to get a jump on it before it stings.

 

[Andrew C]

There are still people who believe the death count is fake

Not fake...but this reporting lag has been annoying since the get go....

 

[kong1802]

Spoken like someone with a very limited understanding of math. You don't throw out the 4k. You had in 36k negative. Then redo the math. Get it?

Also would like to point out that I already addressed that.....

Is this where I make an English joke? lol

We've already gone through that..

The smaller lab positives at the time accounted for 4k out of the 250k total positives. If we threw out the 4k from the numbers, it doesn't have an impact. Those smaller labs wouldn't have enough negatives to keep the positives and add a theoretical negative number either to make a difference.

The headline looks good, but when you start looking into it...........

 

[Andrew C]

I get that. But sometimes you see the bee in the corner.. know what it’s done before.. might want to get a jump on it before it stings.

I now regret starting the bee analogy...lol

 

[Casper Gutman]

i'll speak for myself and say that i do not believe i am trying to be "tricked."

in general, what i am concerned about is that here in the US, we are trying to have a national, real-time debate in the landscape with the following challenges:

- disjointed, non-uniform, and poorly-defined data
- crummy, lazy reporting
- agendas and/or confirmation bias directing virtually all parts of the discussion
- critical decisions based on potentially false premises

the idea is that no one wants their loved ones to die of this thing, right? then we need to understand what this *thing* is, and the only way to do that is to figure out when it hit us the hardest, why it could or could not be changing, who is at risk, and how we operate.

we're just not doing that, and this thread is pretty instructive on how we get bogged down in our own worldviews

But information isn’t always instantaneously available and studies and analyses take years and years. The whole point of the last few pages is that negative outcome stats won’t be clear for months.

Saying we can only act if the facts are 100% clear and there is no uncertainty amounts to an argument that we can never act.

 

[kong1802]

Not fake...but this reporting lag has been annoying since the get go....

But we have the data, right?

Same data that was used to make that graph showing the lag in July reported deaths.

Someone just has to compile deaths by date.

Anyone wanting to show the "truth" could just do that....