Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[ImperfectPixie]

With nothing to back it up. Not being mean to Pixie, but you can’t just throw out a number and say 1.5-2% chance of being infected with a mask and not qualify it in any way.

I should have been more clear - that is of course in combination with hand-washing, avoiding prolonged contact, etc. I've read numbers that low in at least a couple of different places (NOT Facebook).

 

[ImperfectPixie]

With nothing to back it up. Not being mean to Pixie, but you can’t just throw out a number and say 1.5-2% chance of being infected with a mask and not qualify it in any way.

I actually brought my youngest son to the supermarket for the first time since early March today, now that we know surface transmission is rare. He's got a developmental delay due to autism, and he did AMAZINGLY well....didn't fuss with his mask at all, didn't complain, and didn't touch anything except to get him and his brother each a candy bar...then washed hands right when we got home. (We only needed 4 items all from the same end of the store, so I thought a quick run in would be a good starting point for him.)

 

[MaximumEd]

I actually brought my youngest son to the supermarket for the first time since early March today, now that we know surface transmission is rare. He's got a developmental delay due to autism, and he did AMAZINGLY well....didn't fuss with his mask at all, didn't complain, and didn't touch anything except to get him and his brother each a candy bar...then washed hands right when we got home.

You’re doing better than us. Our 13 year old daughter touches her face twice as much with a mask on as she does otherwise. She also touches everything within arms reach....twice.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

You’re doing better than us. Our 13 year old daughter touches her face twice as much with a mask on as she does otherwise. She also touches everything within arms reach....twice.

I can see my older son being like that! My youngest was just super excited because the weekly Stop & Shop run is our "thing", and he got to push the carriage.

 

[Miss Bella]

Germany and Austria are fine they're opening up for tourists - im assuming transmitting through LHR would be fine tbh - I also believe that this policy will be gone almost as soon as they impose it. Problem we have IMO is that our PM and half his cabinet and 'advisors' caught Covid and it seems to have spooked them! convinced if they hadn't we would be open by now - its the family situation which is making people angry; no family but hey all go back to work!!

British Airways wont be allowed to go busy by the govt but they're re-doing contracts and cutting pay and looking to lay off 1/3 of their staff - its a nightmare especially with rumblings about Virgins long term future.

Is Germany open to US citizens? Things aren't much better for our airlines either, but hopefully, they'll survive.

 

[MaximumEd]

I can see my older son being like that! My youngest was just super excited because the weekly Stop & Shop run is our "thing", and he got to push the carriage.

I hear ya. And like I said earlier, not jumping on you about the 1.5-2% number, but I see all these stats and studies about the percentage of anything COVID related, and it just irks me. The goalposts are constantly moving, numbers are always changing, and we won’t know the TRUE numbers for anything until it’s all over, because the situation isn’t static. Goes back to the old saying that all models are wrong, but some are useful.

 

[xdan0920]

For starters the governor of FL has decided that it’s unsafe for people from 4 whole states to even enter the state of Florida without quarantining. If those places are still that bad off how can Disney ensure that people living in those states or more importantly people that have passed through those areas aren‘t going to show up at WDW and infect their employees? I‘m from PA and I could easily spend a weekend in NYC and then hop a flight from Philly to MCO and head to WDW. I also know people living in Manhattan who don’t have cars so they never changed their driver license to NY.

Depending on your age and health, mostly weight if we are honest, catching Covid isn’t as dangerous as driving to work. That’s why I asked. It’s possible she’s is stressing over nothing.

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

I hope face coverings are in the plans for WDW tomorrow. It would be irresponsible if it's not.

 

[Miss Bella]

I read “I work in a hospital” as “I make no medical assessments, decisions or interventions.” Lots of people work at hospitals but their opinions are nowhere near equal.

I'm an RN. My opinion on when they open is June 24 for soft opening and July 1 to the public. I guess I should say my prediction not opinion.
I'll leave all the arguing about CFR's and IFR's to the rest of you.

I just want to go to DISNEY WORLD.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I hear ya. And like I said earlier, not jumping on you about the 1.5-2% number, but I see all these stats and studies about the percentage of anything COVID related, and it just irks me. The goalposts are constantly moving, numbers are always changing, and we won’t know the TRUE numbers for anything until it’s all over, because the situation isn’t static. Goes back to the old saying that all models are wrong, but some are useful.

They are...I'm not a fan of predictive models after all this, that's for sure. I've been watching the daily confirmed cases/deaths, taking screen shots of the Johns Hopkins maps (they've had to redefine their "dot" sizes a few times as confirmed case numbers grow) so I can watch how the virus is traveling, and I'm reading the studies. The virus is here...not much we can do about that at this point...so we're just being super cautious and not taking unnecessary risks. My husband is the only one who goes anywhere (work and weekly Walmart) other than my once a week trip to Stop & Shop for a handful of things. There aren't many people we trust to be as cautious as we are, but my husband is high risk, and so are his mother and my mom and step-dad, so it just isn't worth taking chances.

The fact that we still aren't testing enough people is very disturbing. So is the lack of compliance with simple safety recommendations.

 

[hopemax]

I read something today claiming the CDC is saying their estimate now on the IFR is 0.26%. Anyone else hear this? Is it true? On a slightly sarcastic note, do we, or do we not believe the CDC today?

Talked about this earlier. The problem with this estimate is NYC. 8.4 million people. With an IFR of .26%, it would predict 21,840 deaths. There have already been 20,800 deaths, confirmed via positive test data. Tracking "excess deaths" (ie people who died without being tested for COVID-19) this number is over 30,000. So in order for this IFR estimate to be accurate, the outbreak in NYC would have to be essentially over. But the antibody testing shows only about 25% of people having been infected.

Decisions in NYC regarding care facilities, and delayed lockdowns changed the speed / timeline, density affected the infection rate, but even in NYC the hospital system didn't break, so the base "lethalness" that IFR should measure shouldn't be different in NYC than elsewhere. If it doesn't work for a place that experienced a larger outbreak, it isn't accurate. In this case, it's too low.

It's lower elsewhere, because of suppression tactics, delaying the virus penetration(shown in the antibody testing elsewhere being super low). Stop those tactics, and we'll see what happens.

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

I'm an RN. My opinion on when they open is June 24 for soft opening and July 1 to the public. I guess I should say my prediction not opinion.
I'll leave all the arguing about CFR's and IFR's to the rest of you.

I just want to go to DISNEY WORLD.

Other than the RN thing, couldn't have said it better. My wife was an RN and now she builds Epic for the hospital she's at.

 

[MaximumEd]

@hopemax Interesting. Makes sense.

 

[GoofGoof]

Depending on your age and health, mostly weight if we are honest, catching Covid isn’t as dangerous as driving to work. That’s why I asked. It’s possible she’s is stressing over nothing.

Got it. No big deal. Just the flu.

 

[Miss Bella]

Other than the RN thing, couldn't have said it better. My wife was an RN and now she builds Epic for the hospital she's at.

Epic is the best according to the travel nurses. I've never had the pleasure of using it.

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

Epic is the best according to the travel nurses. I've never had the pleasure of using it.

I used to build Gen Lab at Cerner.

 

[natatomic]

Will they get paid if they're dead? I'm seriously not being a witch....I'm asking a genuine question. And what about if one of my children die because daddy brings it home? If we were taken care of by our representatives and government (like England or Canada) then we could stay home longer until there is more knowledge, tests, and until we have a sure plan (not just sure let's open and see what happens) and could stay home and be safe.

The odds of your child dying from the coronavirus due to your husband picking it up at work are.....incredibly small. No, I won’t say impossible, but I’m pretty sure it’s a bigger risk just putting your kids in a car every day. Especially since kids are sooooo unlikely to catch the virus, let alone die from it. And I think you said your husband is a stage tech? That’s not exactly a guest-facing role, although correct me if I am wrong about what he does.

I am saying this as someone who has buried a child before, so please don’t think I’m just brushing off the idea of losing a child because I have the “oh, it’ll never happen to me” mentality. I definitely don’t. I have a genuine fear of losing my living children from so many things in life. But honestly? This virus isn’t even in my top ten. I understand your hesitation and concern, but please focus on the overwhelming statistics that say your children are going to be okay.

 

[joup7]

Place your bets opening day bets before 9am lol

I’ll bet $1 that
1/3 of the thread will say it’s too soon
1/3 of the thread will say it’s not soon enough
1/3 of the thread will say it’s perfect timing

 

[xdan0920]

The virus is somehow both no big deal, and a murder weapon.

Well, it’s fairly straightforward. You’re a smart guy, I know and respect you enough to realize that. You can see pretty clearly how it can be both “not dangerous” and incredibly dangerous simultaneously.

 

[brianstl]

Talked about this earlier. The problem with this estimate is NYC. 8.4 million people. With an IFR of .26%, it would predict 21,840 deaths. There have already been 20,800 deaths, confirmed via positive test data. Tracking "excess deaths" (ie people who died without being tested for COVID-19) this number is over 30,000. So in order for this IFR estimate to be accurate, the outbreak in NYC would have to be essentially over. But the antibody testing shows only about 25% of people having been infected.

Decisions in NYC regarding care facilities, and delayed lockdowns changed the speed / timeline, density affected the infection rate, but even in NYC the hospital system didn't break, so the base "lethalness" that IFR should measure shouldn't be different in NYC than elsewhere. If it doesn't work for a place that experienced a larger outbreak, it isn't accurate. In this case, it's too low.

It's lower elsewhere, because of suppression tactics, delaying the virus penetration(shown in the antibody testing elsewhere being super low). Stop those tactics, and we'll see what happens.

Is the NYC death count only NYC residents or is the count all of confirmed and probable COVID death certificates issued by the NYC Department of Health? Because if it includes all COVID deaths occurring at NYC medical facilities it would greatly inflate the death rate for NYC residents because it would include thousands of deaths of non NYC residents who died in NYC.