Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[rnese]

The "media" of today is not what the media once was. Today's media is concerned with ratings, plain and simple. Ratings equal money for the network and popularity for the personalities. Fear mongering at a time like this gets viewers. Watch a news conference. 1 of every 3 questions is unnecessary. Only aimed at trying to catch someone contradicting something that was said last week. It was worse last week.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

The "media" of today is not what the media once was. Today's media is concerned with ratings, plain and simple. Ratings equal money for the network and popularity for the personalities. Fear mongering at a time like this gets viewers. Watch a news conference. 1 of every 3 questions is unnecessary. Only aimed at trying to catch someone contradicting something that was said last week. It was worse last week.

Agreed. One only need watch the Q&A sessions at the end of the task force updates. It's pretty easy to see who's trying for a "gotcha" moment.

ETA: I will admit that the majority have gotten better the further we get into this, but there are still a couple that seriously need to do some soul-searching.

 

[lebeau]

The "media" of today is not what the media once was. Today's media is concerned with ratings, plain and simple. Ratings equal money for the network and popularity for the personalities. Fear mongering at a time like this gets viewers. Watch a news conference. 1 of every 3 questions is unnecessary. Only aimed at trying to catch someone contradicting something that was said last week. It was worse last week.

Not to go too far off topic, but there are a few reasons for that. One of them is that we did away with the Fairness Doctrine. That lead to the other factor which is the rise of cable news. I don't care what your political affiliations are, 24-hour news channels are bad for journalism.

 

[Piebald]

Disney releasing big discounts for bookings starting April 19.

People think they reopen because everything magically gets better on April 19 at 11:59:59?

 

[richiejv]

Hi everyone,

Long-time reader (nearly 20 hours now!), first-time writer. I’m due to be flying over in September from the UK (assuming Mr Trump un-bans us by then), and I’m curious to see what the various opinions are about the state of play by then. I imagine the parks will be open in some shape or form by then but, being aware that there are a lot of ifs, buts, and wherefores right now, what do you all think we should expect for crowd levels? I’m too young (not a brag, honest) to remember post-9/11 or the 2008 financial crash so not sure how it was then, but it’d be interesting to see what people think.

I’m bracing myself for possibly having to cancel, but fingers crossed that won’t be the case. Cheers everyone.

 

[larryz]

Hi everyone,

Long-time reader (nearly 20 hours now!), first-time writer. I’m due to be flying over in September from the UK (assuming Mr Trump un-bans us by then), and I’m curious to see what the various opinions are about the state of play by then. I imagine the parks will be open in some shape or form by then but, being aware that there are a lot of ifs, buts, and wherefores right now, what do you all think we should expect for crowd levels? I’m too young (not a brag, honest) to remember post-9/11 or the 2008 financial crash so not sure how it was then, but it’d be interesting to see what people think.

I’m bracing myself for possibly having to cancel, but fingers crossed that won’t be the case. Cheers everyone.

Here's what I'd expect. Hot and humid, with a chance of occasional love bugs. Weekdays will be relatively quiet except for holidays. Weekends will see unblocked AP users in hordes. IF WDW keeps all the MNSSHPs on the schedule, you might see the traditional crowds in the MK on non-party days, and light crowds during party days.

 

[ELG13]

Disney releasing big discounts for bookings starting April 19.

People think they reopen because everything magically gets better on April 19 at 11:59:59?

Ugh. We are due to got may 9th for a week. I always plan my trips to catch "low"crowds and I feel like even if they are open and everything is good by then (doubtful) its gonna be chaos. But we have our fastpasses and our ADRs and we aren't really needy when it comes to rides. We are fine just doing fastpasses for the day then heading to the pool. At this point I don't even know what to do anymore. I told my husband I'm just going to let Disney cancel our trip.

 

[orlandogal22]

I don't remember who shared this website but it was a great tool to keep up with the data:

https://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/8d0de33f260d444c852a615dc7837c86

However as of right now you need login credentials to get in.......hopefully its just a glitch?

Try a different browser. It did the same thing to me after I refreshed it a couple times to see if stats were changing. I went to a different browser on my system (I have four uploaded - Edge, Chrome, Foxfire, and IE), and I was able to access again.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Here we go again...

 

[TrojanUSC]

Imperial College in London recently came out with their study on Corona effects, which is the most comprehensive look into this to date. There are some quibbles people have (for example, China is not seeing a resurgence after strict lock-down measures), but this summary is by far the best I've found:



It breaks down three scenarios, including the "herd immunity" DisneyCane theory and two others.

Here's is then a good critique of the study which shows some good caveats to take into consideration.

Review of Ferguson et al "Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions..." — New England Complex Systems Institute

necsi.edu

All in all, it's still a terrifying grim outlook.

 

[jrhwdw]

Yep. And a little more. Influenza is a whole class of viruses, with 4 types: A, B, C, and D. H1N1 is actually a strain of Influenza A (and it was the strain responsible for the 1918 flu) For this "Coronavirus" is the catch-all term, and SARS-CoV-2 is the specific type. The common cold is also a coronavirus.

And since we are all learning our infectious disease history. The 1918 flu was actually the 1918-1919 flu, because it came in 3 waves, the 2nd wave was the really deadly one. I recently learned that here in Colorado, in the community of Gunnison, they had no cases in the first and second waves of the 1918 pandemic. The town had a doctor, upon hearing the news of an outbreak, ordered the community be barricaded and that anyone arriving via train had to be quarantined. The sheriff backed him up by arresting anyone who tried to sneak in. But after the success of the first two, they let their guard down, and ended up with about 100 infections when the 3rd wave arrived.

So when people say we could be hearing about this again come next year, there is a real possibility.

So did H1N1 "come alive" after the 2008-2009 Flu Shots were made shipped??? Or did Flu Shots fail like they did a year ago(no one I knew got Flu last year, that's just what the news said) H1N1 was all over the news in April, we went to WDW start of May(SO GLAD WE DID!!!!)no one got it. Even my Grandfather who had Luk., didn't pass till April 2010. I didn't have my usual summer, ICU for a week twice but that was over 2 months after WDW so I don't think I got anything from WDW or had H1N1.

No offense but Common Cold is Corona?!?!?!??! Is it a very different strain than what closed everything down?


Just to warn, TC is reporting the WDW might be closed till mid April, not shocking but SIGH!! That's been my biggest fear with this! After the well being of my family(Father's in an ICU bed with pneumonia, got it last week(NOT Corona I believe) plus other health issues since Halloween! Rollseyes!) My fear is the closures will be open ended! Just landed kind of a promotion at work, now can't go into work (School District, I get it) Now every Disney Park as of Monday???

 

[monothingie]

Imperial College in London recently came out with their study on Corona effects, which is the most comprehensive look into this to date. There are some quibbles people have (for example, China is not seeing a resurgence after strict lock-down measures), but this summary is by far the best I've found:



It breaks down three scenarios, including the "herd immunity" DisneyCane theory and two others.

Here's is then a good critique of the study which shows some good caveats to take into consideration.

Review of Ferguson et al "Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions..." — New England Complex Systems Institute

necsi.edu

All in all, it's still a terrifying grim outlook.

Another day another model run. We can't even get accurate models that predict the next days weather. The fact that the post lead off with fear mongering and doom and gloom calls many things into question.

 

[TrojanUSC]

Another day another model run. We can't even get accurate models that predict the next days weather. The fact that the post lead off with fear mongering and doom and gloom calls many things into question.

It is the most comprehensive study to date and a very good summary thereof. It is well worth your time to read.

Behind the Virus Report That Jarred the U.S. and the U.K. to Action (Published 2020)

It wasn’t so much the numbers themselves, frightening though they were, as who reported them: Imperial College London.

www.nytimes.com

 

[lebeau]

Dewine Brand Leafblowers

This is but one claim that was given national airtime without any vetting from the media.

I listened to that news conference. It was very informative. Dr. Acton was clear that she was "guestimating." She went through a whole range of projections based on various data available. She made it clear that due to inadequate testing, there was no way to know for sure what the numbers really were but she would rather err on the side of caution than underestimate the scope of the crisis.

I suppose you're arguing that the press should not have covered the governor's press conference? Otherwise I am not sure what this has to do with "the media". She said what she said and they reported it accurately.

 

[monothingie]

It is the most comprehensive study to date and a very good summary thereof. It is well worth your time to read.

Behind the Virus Report That Jarred the U.S. and the U.K. to Action (Published 2020)

It wasn’t so much the numbers themselves, frightening though they were, as who reported them: Imperial College London.

www.nytimes.com

And tomorrow there will be another model that could contradict this. Until further testing is done, all these models rely on assumptions that may or may not reflect reality. Additionally they serve no purpose other than to incite panic. This is one of those few times were the best advice is to listen to the guidance of what the CDC and HHS professionals say we should do and expect.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Check out this article from USA TODAY:

Coronavirus can live in the air for hours and on surfaces for days, study finds

Coronavirus can live in the air for hours and on surfaces for days, study finds

A recent study found that coronavirus can live on some surfaces for up to three days, but experts say transmission from surfaces is unlikely.

www.usatoday.com

I know, another model.. another study.. just passing it along. Just shown a few minutes ago. Don’t kill the messenger.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

It is the most comprehensive study to date and a very good summary thereof. It is well worth your time to read.

Behind the Virus Report That Jarred the U.S. and the U.K. to Action (Published 2020)

It wasn’t so much the numbers themselves, frightening though they were, as who reported them: Imperial College London.

www.nytimes.com

DAMN THAT PAYWALL!!! I get that they need to generate income, but in a crisis like this, I wish they'd make this article freely available.

 

[Mouse Trap]

It is the most comprehensive study to date and a very good summary thereof. It is well worth your time to read.

Behind the Virus Report That Jarred the U.S. and the U.K. to Action (Published 2020)

It wasn’t so much the numbers themselves, frightening though they were, as who reported them: Imperial College London.

www.nytimes.com

Bill Gates and his team adressed this article:

"Fortunately it appears the parameters used in that model were too negative. The experience in China is the most critical data we have. They did their "shut down" and were able to reduce the number of cases. They are testing widely so they see rebounds immediately and so far there have not been a lot. They avoided widespread infection. The Imperial model does not match this experience. Models are only as good as the assumptions put into them. People are working on models that match what we are seeing more closely and they will become a key tool. A group called Institute for Disease Modeling that I fund is one of the groups working with others on this."

 

[Figgy1]

Shades of Green not accepting reservations until April 16th, as with everything subject to change

 

[A Noble Fish]

Another day another model run. We can't even get accurate models that predict the next days weather. The fact that the post lead off with fear mongering and doom and gloom calls many things into question.

Models have been predicting what's happening now since late January. I don't know about that Tweet, but scientific models are based upon facts and should be trusted. Failure to do so gets us to where Italy is with overcrowded hospitals and people turned away to die. People just haven't known where to look. There are facts in the world and there is an indisputable truth and understanding of everything from business to political institutions. In the case of a mode like this, it is assuming the worst-case scenario to spur people into action to avoid it by slowing it down.