Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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correcaminos

Well-Known Member
The Omicron wave is breaking, but deaths, which lag cases by as much as several weeks, have surpassed the numbers from the Delta wave and are still increasing in much of the country.
In 14 states, the average daily death toll is higher now than it was two weeks ago. They are Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Kentucky, Maine, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia.
Since Nov. 24, when South Africa first reported the Omicron variant to the World Health Organization, the United States has confirmed more than 30,163,600 new infections and more than 154,750 new deaths. (While the U.S. did not initially identify any Omicron cases within its borders until Dec. 1, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has since confirmed that the variant was in the country at least a week earlier.)
By comparison, from Aug. 1 to Oct. 31, a similar duration covering the worst of the Delta surge in the United States, the country confirmed 10,917,590 new infections and 132,616 new deaths.
That makes the official case count about 176 percent higher during the Omicron wave than in the equivalent-length Delta period. (The true case count is higher still, because, more so than during the Delta wave, many people have been using at-home tests whose results are not included in government statistics.) The death toll during the Omicron wave is about 17 percent higher so far than the death toll in the Delta wave.
On one hand, the gap between the increase in cases and the increase in deaths reflects Omicron’s somewhat lower virulence compared with previous variants, as well as that Omicron is far more likely to cause breakthrough infections in vaccinated people, who are far less likely to die from it than unvaccinated people. Deaths also remain lower than in last winter’s surge, before vaccines were widely available: 233,102 deaths were reported from Nov. 24, 2020, to Feb. 18, 2021, compared with 154,757 from Nov. 24, 2021, to Feb. 18, 2022.
But the painful absolute numbers — more than 150,000 Americans dead who would otherwise have lived — underscore the country’s continuing vulnerability. Many disabled or chronically ill people remain at high risk even after vaccination. And when the number of infections is as astronomical as 30 million, even a tiny death rate will mean a catastrophic death count.
Nationally, deaths have begun to decline and are down 13 percent from two weeks ago. But an average of about 2,300 people — more than the death toll of Hurricane Katrina — are still dying every day.
Slight problem with counting. Until maybe later on in December omicron wasn't causing cases, let alone deaths in the US. Going into December Delta was the cause for man still. We hadn't gotten over Delta here before omicron hit.
 

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
I always carry a tissue, as my nose is prone to running after temperature changes from a cold outdoors to a warm indoors.
But my point wasn't about me, or the extra careful people here who carry multiple masks on them.
It was about the average person making the average trip of average duration into a store.
The vast majority of them aren't (weren't) likely to have any mask on them beyond the one that they were wearing.
Most people making a short outing into a store weren't making "a plan" of an emergency mask.
I get what you are saying. Those without issues don't carry. Overplanners or ones who do would. I just run too many things to not, but my spouse doesn't carry extras. Though I did make him put some in the car.
 

mmascari

Well-Known Member
Most people making a short outing into a store weren't making "a plan" of an emergency mask.
You missed my point, the mask doesn’t matter here. It doesn’t change anything.

The person who blows a wet snotball into their hand, elbow, or sleeve is no more prepared either.

Presence of a mask or not doesn’t change anything.

Although a store is more likely to have a replacement free mask than a shirt.
 

Tom P.

Well-Known Member
Well any deaths aren't good and it does seem like there is a lot more. I'm just trying to figure out if it's just because of sheer volume of people getting Omicron that it seems like it's more deadly than Delta, or if apples to apples, it just really is more deadly than Delta.

I'm not sure I'm making sense.
Pretty certain it is due to sheer volume of cases. I haven't heard anyone, on either "side" of these debates, including medical professionals, argue that Omicron is more deadly than Delta. Some people have objected to characterizations of Omicron as being "mild," but I haven't heard anyone claim it's worse than previous variants in terms of severity of disease.
 

mmascari

Well-Known Member
I can't read it so just asking because I'm truly curious - are they counting apples to apples? Number of cases/death -% for Delta and numbers of cases/deaths-% for Omicron and Omicron comes out higher using those variables?
The headline says the amount not the rate.

I’m sure those impacted are glad the rate is lower but that because there are so many more that even with a lower rate the amount is larger.

That surely gives their families comfort.
 

dreday3

Well-Known Member
The headline says the amount not the rate.

I’m sure those impacted are glad the rate is lower but that because there are so many more that even with a lower rate the amount is larger.

That surely gives their families comfort.

Never mind, waste of my time. 🙂
 

mmascari

Well-Known Member
Never mind, waste of my time. 🙂
That’s fair.

I reread the first post like 12 times trying to figure out how it wasn’t dismissing a larger death count because of a lower rate. That the headline “more” might be deceiving, like so many headlines are, because it was comparing raw number of deaths instead of a rate based on infections. I wasn’t able to find a way to read it not like that. May not have been what you meant, but I was unable to read it any other way.

Here’s another tweet that says this was all very predictable and not a surprising outcome.

 

dreday3

Well-Known Member
That’s fair.

I reread the first post like 12 times trying to figure out how it wasn’t dismissing a larger death count because of a lower rate. That the headline “more” might be deceiving, like so many headlines are, because it was comparing raw number of deaths instead of a rate based on infections. I wasn’t able to find a way to read it not like that. May not have been what you meant, but I was unable to read it any other way.

Here’s another tweet that says this was all very predictable and not a surprising outcome.



That's not how I meant it, pretty sure my posting history would agree with that, but take it however you want, I'm not here to convince you otherwise (and don't really care to).

No worries, no arguments.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
That’s fair.

I reread the first post like 12 times trying to figure out how it wasn’t dismissing a larger death count because of a lower rate. That the headline “more” might be deceiving, like so many headlines are, because it was comparing raw number of deaths instead of a rate based on infections. I wasn’t able to find a way to read it not like that. May not have been what you meant, but I was unable to read it any other way.

Here’s another tweet that says this was all very predictable and not a surprising outcome.


I guess a simple way to state it is that Omicron is less deadly but will cause more deaths due to the much higher transmissibility.

Your risk if you are infected with Omicron is much lower than with prior variants but you have a higher risk of contracting it.
 

Incomudro

Well-Known Member
Pretty certain it is due to sheer volume of cases. I haven't heard anyone, on either "side" of these debates, including medical professionals, argue that Omicron is more deadly than Delta. Some people have objected to characterizations of Omicron as being "mild," but I haven't heard anyone claim it's worse than previous variants in terms of severity of disease.
If the Queen of England is weathering her infection well, I consider that to be a safe bet that an omicron infection can be handled well by most people.
 

Heppenheimer

Well-Known Member
I also expect that the Queen has round the clock medical attention and access to all the cutting edge anti-virals the rest of us would have no luck accessing.
Probably not. Unless she gets severely ill, I doubt they would risk unproven treatments, when the approved medical therapies work pretty well.

What is different for the Queen is that she will probably jump to the front of the line if the UK had a shortage of the approved treatments. I have no idea if availability is a problem there right now.
 
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