Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[mmascari]

It is that simple. Breakthough cases will not going to a hospitalisation because of vaccination. Again, having covid is not an issue if your are vaccinated, which is not true when you are not.

Less of an issue, not no issue at all.

A lot less of an issue for sure.

Reduction, not force field.

Some number of unvaccinated will allow COVID to spread creating a baseline transmission rate. Some small percentage of vaccinated will be breakthrough cases, a reduction based on that baseline transmission not zero. Some small percentage of those breakthrough cases will need hospitalization. Some small percentage of those who need hospitalization will die.

Base rate * reduction * reduction * reduction = Unlucky few.

For those in the unlucky few, it doesn't matter that the triple reduction made the number statistically small. To them, and their families, the only thing that matters is that the base rate was to high for the triple reduction to make it actually 0 and the impact to the rest of their lives (or lack of life) will be devastating.

And, that's why I'm angry. At this point, those who choose to be unvaccinated are just fine causing that impact.

You can play with the 3 reduction rates and get different numbers of vaccinated that die anyway. But, no matter what percentages you use for each, there's always one truth. The larger the first number is for the base rate of cases, the larger the last number will be.

It's definitely a small number relative to the first. But, that first number for the base rate is still so high that the last one is a meaningful value above 0.

 

[sullyinMT]

Less of an issue, not no issue at all.
[…]

For those in the unlucky few, it doesn't matter that the triple reduction made the number statistically small. To them, and their families, the only thing that matters is that the base rate was to high for the triple reduction to make it actually 0 and the impact to the rest of their lives (or lack of life) will be devastating.

And, that's why I'm angry. At this point, those who choose to be unvaccinated are just fine causing that impact.
[…]
It's definitely a small number relative to the first. But, that first number for the base rate is still so high that the last one is a meaningful value above 0.

I just wanted to share relative to my county since around July 4, when everyone 12+ had a chance to be fully vaccinated.

Well over 97% of our vaccinated deaths have been people either very old, riddled with comorbidities, or at minimum over retirement age with at least one comorbidity. In other words, people that were otherwise susceptible to severe illness of any type. Their families, while I’m sure devastated, knew what was possible with every passing day, COVID or not. Think Gen Powell. I’m sure his family was rocked and devastated, but probably not overly shocked, per se.

Like you, what makes me angry is that the willfully unvaccinated are holding the rest of society in a limbo hostage state. We should be, by now, well past this. Of course there will likely be some “low hum” of transmission among vulnerable and truly unable to be vaccinated, plus the “natural” breakthrough that occurs due to non-100% effectiveness. But they are willing to continue being vectors for disease and become burdens on their community’s health system instead of becoming educated and getting past themselves. It’s disgusting and maddening.

 

[mmascari]

Well over 97% of our vaccinated deaths have been people either very old, riddled with comorbidities, or at minimum over retirement age with at least one comorbidity.

Random tweet I ran into after posting. Source link below, but the graphic stands out in tweet. All those triangles line up with this observation. Shows the reduction from Cases to Hospitalized to ICU to Ventilators in stark contrast.

COVID-19 at Michigan Medicine by the Numbers | Michigan Medicine

Patient and employee COVID-19 data at Michigan Medicine including inpatient count and a graph showing inpatients organized by vaccination status and existence of underlying condition, as well as employee vaccination data.

www.uofmhealth.org

 

[DCBaker]

"Pfizer and BioNTech announced Monday that their Covid-19 vaccine was 100% efficacious in preventing infections in 12- to 15-year-olds, measured from seven days to four months after administration of the second dose of the vaccine.

The companies said the new data — a longer-term analysis of a Phase 3 trial conducted in 2,228 participants — will form the basis of an application to the Food and Drug Administration for an extension of their Covid-19 vaccine license to cover youths in the age group.

“These are the first and only disclosed longer-term data demonstrating the safety and efficacy of a Covid- 19 vaccine in individuals 12 to 15 years of age,” Ugur Sahin, CEO and co-founder of BioNTech, said in a statement. “The growing body of data we have compiled from clinical trials and real-world surveillance to date strengthen the base of evidence supporting the strong efficacy and favorable safety profile of our Covid-19 vaccine across adolescent and adult populations.”

The longer-term analysis of the Phase 3 trial data showed no serious safety concerns over a follow-up period of at least six months after the second dose of the vaccine.

The additional data “provide further confidence in our vaccine’s safety and effectiveness profile in adolescents. This is especially important as we see rates of COVID-19 climbing in this age group in some regions, while vaccine uptake has slowed,” Albert Bourla, Pfizer’s chairman and CEO, said in the statement.

The vaccine has been in use in this age group since May, when the FDA extended the emergency use authorization for the vaccine to cover 12 to 15 year olds. In August, the vaccine, which the companies market under the name Comirnaty, was the first of Covid vaccines to receive a full license for individuals, 16 years of age and older.

The companies said they will also use the data to pursue regulatory approvals in other countries where the vaccine has been granted emergency use.

The Phase 3 data saw 30 Covid infections — all in the placebo arm. Efficacy was consistent across race and ethnic demographics, gender, and underlying illness status, including obesity, the companies said."

Pfizer's Covid-19 vaccine was 100% effective in kids in longer-term study

Pfizer and BioNTech announced that their Covid-19 vaccine was 100% efficacious in preventing infections in 12 to 15 year olds in a longer-term study.

www.statnews.com

 

[ABQ]

Random tweet I ran into after posting. Source link below, but the graphic stands out in tweet. All those triangles line up with this observation. Shows the reduction from Cases to Hospitalized to ICU to Ventilators in stark contrast.

COVID-19 at Michigan Medicine by the Numbers | Michigan Medicine

Patient and employee COVID-19 data at Michigan Medicine including inpatient count and a graph showing inpatients organized by vaccination status and existence of underlying condition, as well as employee vaccination data.

www.uofmhealth.org

Nearly identical here in the covid hotbed of New Mexico, this is from one of our hospital chains today:

 

[Heppenheimer]

I wouldn't call this study definitive, rather, slowly amassing more evidence that relying on prior infection will likely not be an adequate substitute for full vaccination:

Antibody Protection From Mild COVID-19 May Not Last

Nearly everyone who had a mild case of COVID-19 still has antibodies to the coronavirus a year later, but that might not protect them from new variants circulating now, a small study suggests.

www.medscape.com

 

[mkt]

There’s been so many breakthrough cases though. It’s not that simple.

Yes. But the hospitalization and fatality rate is where the vaccine proves its worth.

The vast majority of those that are hospitalized are still unvaccinated.

 

[mkt]

How porous is the boarder with Spain?

Not very. Even before Brexit, Gibraltar was never part of the Schengen Area, so there have always been border checkpoints.

Before Brexit, it was comparable to the US/Canada border crossing in either direction. Post Brexit, it's more like the US/Mexico border crossing heading into the US.

 

[Joesixtoe]

You're right. I don't reel sorry for the unvaccinated anymore (I'm sad that I don't). I feel anger at the unvaccinated who are spreading COVID.

The quantity of breakthrough cases is directly related to the quantity of unvaccinated continuing to provide COVID with plenty of people to infect. The unvaccinated are directly responsible for the quantity of breakthrough cases in the vac.cinated.

Yeah but CDC even says vaccinated can still spread the virus. By now a much higher percentage of the population is either vaccinated or recovered from covid than those who have had neither. Both offer antibodies obviously. So this only the unvaccinated is spreading is down right wrong. It's simply untrue. I'd much rather stand next to a n95 mask wearing unvaccinated individual than a non mask wearing vaccinated individual any day of the week. Anecdotal evidence in that I've yet to see any patient come into the hospital with covid symptoms who has previously had covid then testing positive with covid(however I do know it happens). I've seen my share of vaccinated come in with covid symptoms and testing positive. Many people have had the virus and recovered, you have to count them, not doing so is extremely disingenuous. Direct your anger elsewhere cause there is more ways than one to fight this virus.

 

[mmascari]

Yeah but CDC even says vaccinated can still spread the virus………Direct your anger elsewhere cause there is more ways than one to fight this virus.

Show me a technically true statement that equates two things that are not even close to the same. I’m angry with you, specifically it seems. Super bad hot take.

I mean sure, if there’s 100 cars on the road and 50 have drunk drivers and 50 sober drivers, it’s technically true that any of them could cause an accident. But, if I was betting, they’re not remotely the same thing.

 

[sullyinMT]

Show me a technically true statement that equates two things that are not even close to the same. I’m angry with you, specifically it seems. Super bad hot take.

I mean sure, if there’s 100 cars on the road and 50 have drunk drivers and 50 sober drivers, it’s technically true that any of them could cause an accident. But, if I was betting, they’re not remotely the same thing.

Or, if 100 drivers are on the road and 60 are sober and typical drivers, 15 had a drink at some point in the last hour and are metabolizing but we aren’t sure to what degree, and 25 are still over the limit hammered. Of the 60 sober, there’s some chance that maybe they’re eating a burger, changing radio stations, or there are one or two doofuses texting while on adaptive cruise with lane assist. That would account for breakthroughs, waning efficacy, etc, while the 15 in the above example had known covid. Those 15 aren’t ideal on our highways but in most scenarios make it home ok. The 25 doing what they want because everyone else is some degree of safe are making the roadway inordinately unsafe for the rest of us. We have to watch out for them, and ourselves, while all we want to do is go to the Nutcracker safely this weekend.

 

[JoeCamel]

Yeah but CDC even says vaccinated can still spread the virus. By now a much higher percentage of the population is either vaccinated or recovered from covid than those who have had neither. Both offer antibodies obviously. So this only the unvaccinated is spreading is down right wrong. It's simply untrue. I'd much rather stand next to a n95 mask wearing unvaccinated individual than a non mask wearing vaccinated individual any day of the week. Anecdotal evidence in that I've yet to see any patient come into the hospital with covid symptoms who has previously had covid then testing positive with covid(however I do know it happens). I've seen my share of vaccinated come in with covid symptoms and testing positive. Many people have had the virus and recovered, you have to count them, not doing so is extremely disingenuous. Direct your anger elsewhere cause there is more ways than one to fight this virus.

Current stats are 10 to 1 unvaxed in hospitals vs the vaxed. Antibodies in individuals that have had covid are known to wane quickly so getting vaxed even if recovered is recommended as it provides longer lasting protection to severe illness or death.

Where is the desire to amplify the narrative that recovered or vaxed is equivalent and both will spread the virus to an extent our focus should be there rather than the unvaxed? Get the low hanging fruit and the people that actually tried to do something won't have to carry the load for the fearful and lazy.

 

[Joesixtoe]

Show me a technically true statement that equates two things that are not even close to the same. I’m angry with you, specifically it seems. Super bad hot take.

I mean sure, if there’s 100 cars on the road and 50 have drunk drivers and 50 sober drivers, it’s technically true that any of them could cause an accident. But, if I was betting, they’re not remotely the same thing.

Reality is this, we all have stats, scientific evidence and anecdotal evidence to back our specific claims of what we believe is the best way to fight this. So we aren't going to agree until years from now when hindsight is 20/20. Do your thing, stay mad, be angry. But I'd personally say, get better sources.

 

[Joesixtoe]

Current stats are 10 to 1 unvaxed in hospitals vs the vaxed. Antibodies in individuals that have had covid are known to wane quickly so getting vaxed even if recovered is recommended as it provides longer lasting protection to severe illness or death.

Where is the desire to amplify the narrative that recovered or vaxed is equivalent and both will spread the virus to an extent our focus should be there rather than the unvaxed? Get the low hanging fruit and the people that actually tried to do something won't have to carry the load for the fearful and lazy.

Just read the CDCs own study they did, look at the actual numbers and not the percentages. There were 6 times more people in the hospital with covid like symptoms who were vaccinated than there were those who had recovered. Antibodies in the vaccinated have to get boosters after 6 months. We can go all over the place with this. Anyway like I said we all can point to stats and such that make our own cause. This forum particular is immensely populated with those who are one way. I get it, this is mainly for you guys. There are other places where people think the exact opposite and bring about statistics and studies and the like. The only way honestly to stop this is to come together.

 

[Kamikaze]

Current stats are 10 to 1 unvaxed in hospitals vs the vaxed. Antibodies in individuals that have had covid are known to wane quickly so getting vaxed even if recovered is recommended as it provides longer lasting protection to severe illness or death.

Where is the desire to amplify the narrative that recovered or vaxed is equivalent and both will spread the virus to an extent our focus should be there rather than the unvaxed? Get the low hanging fruit and the people that actually tried to do something won't have to carry the load for the fearful and lazy.

And they believe those numbers are not correct as people self report if they are vaxxed or not. Meaning people who are unvaxxed will say they are in order to receive treatment and/or not have to pay for it.

 

[Tom P.]

Memo: Disney pauses COVID-19 vaccine mandate in Florida

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. (AP) — Disney has paused its policy requiring Florida-based employees to take the COVID-19 vaccine following new laws passed by the state's legislature last week that limit employers' power to require vaccinations, according to a memo sent to employees.

apnews.com

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Memo: Disney pauses COVID-19 vaccine mandate in Florida

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. (AP) — Disney has paused its policy requiring Florida-based employees to take the COVID-19 vaccine following new laws passed by the state's legislature last week that limit employers' power to require vaccinations, according to a memo sent to employees.

apnews.com

Wait.... I thought they wanted private businesses to have freedom to make choices?

 

[mmascari]

Just read the CDCs own study they did, look at the actual numbers and not the percentages. There were 6 times more people in the hospital with covid like symptoms who were vaccinated than there were those who had recovered. Antibodies in the vaccinated have to get boosters after 6 months. We can go all over the place with this. Anyway like I said we all can point to stats and such that make our own cause. This forum particular is immensely populated with those who are one way. I get it, this is mainly for you guys. There are other places where people think the exact opposite and bring about statistics and studies and the like. The only way honestly to stop this is to come together.

Tell me you’re not a scientist without saying it.

Way to double down on a bad take, false equivalence, and misreading the reports.

Clearly, you enjoy having COVID around and are fine with all the harm that causes to everything.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Wait.... I thought they wanted private businesses to have freedom to make choices?

You can do whatever you want so long as it is what I say.

 

[JoeCamel]

Wait.... I thought they wanted private businesses to have freedom to make choices?

Just if they make the "right" choices