Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Disney Boater]

You didn’t see the peaks, either. Notice the first line on the Florida chart is 10,000; on Ohio, it’s half that.

Florida has almost twice the population Ohio has.

 

[ABQ]

You didn’t see the peaks, either. Notice the first line on the Florida chart is 10,000; on Ohio, it’s half that.

I don't believe those charts posted were per 100k or the like, but just raw numbers and has FL has twice the population of OH, it tracks that the delta spike impact was the same. I could be wrong though about the charts, but looking elsewhere, it seems to be the case.

 

[correcaminos]

Florida has almost twice the population Ohio has.

Right, so while FL hit over 20k per person at their peak Ohio never reached 10k. Barely over 5k so less than half per population of what Florida did.

I don't believe those charts posted were per 100k or the like, but just raw numbers and has FL has twice the population of OH, it tracks that the delta spike impact was the same. I could be wrong though about the charts, but looking elsewhere, it seems to be the case.

Do your math again. Half of 20k is 10k. Ohio never hit that (edit this time around - we did in January but our peak this time is nearly half of what it was in January 12.5k average vs 7200 average - FL had a huge peak for a short time at 30k but mostly hung around 20-25k)

 

[drizgirl]

And we will move on to the next big thing. I hope we learned something along the way

I'm sure we did. Probably just not what I hope we all did.

 

[mmascari]

Approved just over 2 weeks ago. I had mine a day later so am happily 2 weeks post booster now.

Looks like it was approved for the same groups as the Pfizer...

Moderna Announces FDA Authorization of a Booster Dose of Moderna’s COVID-19 Vaccine in the U.S. | Moderna, Inc.

Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) granted for individuals 65 years of age and older, and individuals ages 18 through 64 within certain high-risk groups FDA also authorized the use of Moderna’s booster dose following primary vaccination with other authorized or approved COVID-19 vaccines CAMBRIDGE,

investors.modernatx.com

Thanks. I must have confused it with the 5-11 year old approvals.

 

[mkt]

hey all...i've been reading this thread quietly for months, taking it all in. today i got my first dose of moderna. i've been a holdout, not anti-vax but severe health anxiety. finally got up the courage to go. just want to say thanks to those of you who helped to encourage me, even though you didnt know it.

I want to high five you.

 

[Chi84]

I don't think the Moderna half dose was approved yet, was it?

That's what they submitted though.

The Moderna half dose was approved. That’s what I received last week.

 

[DisneyCane]

Florida's case rate:View attachment 599608

vs. Ohio's: View attachment 599609

We started the delta surge about a month after Florida and peaked about a month later. But we haven't seen the same kind of declines, sadly. I wonder if that's due to weather? Our lower vaccination rate? The fact that the peak was <1/3 as high per capita? Who knows, but it's frustrating. We saw how quickly ebbed in India and hoped that this would be bad, but at least quick. Now it sure looks like it will linger throughout the holidays.

You didn’t see the peaks, either. Notice the first line on the Florida chart is 10,000; on Ohio, it’s half that.

It's likely BECAUSE the peak wasn't as high (on a per capita basis) that the decline hasn't been as steep. FL's real peak in cases was probably in the mid 30,000's. It didn't really plateau as the hospitalization chart has a more pointed peak and occurred in the middle of the case plateau. There was a higher percentage "naturally vaccinated" in FL during the Delta wave. For at least some period of time a very large percentage of FL residents have immunity (vaccinated + infected).

 

[mmascari]

It's likely BECAUSE the peak wasn't as high (on a per capita basis) that the decline hasn't been as steep. FL's real peak in cases was probably in the mid 30,000's. It didn't really plateau as the hospitalization chart has a more pointed peak and occurred in the middle of the case plateau. There was a higher percentage "naturally vaccinated" in FL during the Delta wave. For at least some period of time a very large percentage of FL residents have immunity (vaccinated + infected).

From: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#compare-trends

I think they added the option to look by submission date instead of index date recently. Makes it easier to compare calendar date even though the start dates are different for different states.

Pick FL, OH, Cases, Daily, Rate per 100K, Submission Date.

Other than the OH data ticking back up recently, the general shapes don't look that different. The FL peak clearly higher, but the general shape is similar. FL is a little steeper on both sides.

If you add in CA, MA, PA, or NJ, those look much less steep, along with lower peaks.

It would be nice if they added a slider or date selection options. Then you could look at the last 90 days or 30 days. All the "good" parts of the graph are when we're under 10/100K cases. Showing from 1/1/20 includes all the times where the graph scale needs to be huge. It makes it look like 20/100K isn't bad when it isn't really "good" either.

 

[Bob Harlem]

Looks like at the state level, Florida and Georgia are now in Moderate. Orange County, FL will be as well when they update that later this week. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_community

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Is this a “Ohio vs Florida” fight?

cause I’ll buy seats on the boards to watch that

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Looks like at the state level, Florida and Georgia are now in Moderate. Orange County, FL will be as well when they update that later this week. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_community

Yeah…but there’s a problem coming up over the horizon…

 

[havoc315]

Ahhh, you’re ever the optimist. But no, it doesn’t work like that. There was a window, where aggressive action was necessary. We may have already missed the window. If not, it’s quickly closing.

Immunity wanes over time. People who were infected by the Wuhan strain in March 2020 likely do not have much immunity to the Delta strain in July 2021. Vaccines provide stronger immunity but it also wanes over time ( Pfizer points to studies showing the need for a booster. FDA/CDC correctly say not necessary YET. But it likely will become beneficial). And as long as there is mass circulation of the disease - more variants pop up, with variants that become more and more resistant to the existing vaccines.

In that way, it does become something like the flu. Something that can be reduced by seasonal vaccines, controlled by treatment and modern medicine. Problem is that Covid is significantly worse than the flu. And it’s becoming more likely that we will be stuck with it for years to come. (Of course, even if the US had been successful, still exploding around the globe. So even full success in the US might only have been a temporary reprieve… but full success could have at least protected us from the delta variant).

I said this in July, I was heavily criticized for suggesting that the vaccines wane over time and that boosters would become necessary.
We now have an even better sense of just how much it really does wane and how much extra protection could be provided by boosters?

Unfortunately, we are making a rather weak effort to distribute boosters in the US. I see many people claiming that we have seen the last significant wave of Covid.
Sadly, I fear they are wrong. I believe we are just at the beginning of a winter surge, especially in colder states. The surge is starting in the coldest states, and it will expand as more states become colder. Even highly vaccinated states.
Just look at Vermont, which has about the best vaccination in the country:

There is good news: Even unboosted vaccination provides good protection against hospitalization and death. And further new treatments are quickly arriving. So a winter 2021 surge will be far less deadly than the winter 2020 surge.
But there is a surge coming to the Northern part of the country, and while deaths shouldn't be as bad as winter 2020, deaths will still increase significantly. I'll note in New York, daily deaths are already *higher* than they were in mid November 2020. NY is currently averaging 42 deaths per day. As of November 10, 2020, New York was averaging 23 deaths per day.

IOW, this isn't over.

 

[correcaminos]

View attachment 599764

From: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#compare-trends

I think they added the option to look by submission date instead of index date recently. Makes it easier to compare calendar date even though the start dates are different for different states.

Pick FL, OH, Cases, Daily, Rate per 100K, Submission Date.

Other than the OH data ticking back up recently, the general shapes don't look that different. The FL peak clearly higher, but the general shape is similar. FL is a little steeper on both sides.

If you add in CA, MA, PA, or NJ, those look much less steep, along with lower peaks.

It would be nice if they added a slider or date selection options. Then you could look at the last 90 days or 30 days. All the "good" parts of the graph are when we're under 10/100K cases. Showing from 1/1/20 includes all the times where the graph scale needs to be huge. It makes it look like 20/100K isn't bad when it isn't really "good" either.

How can you say they look the same shape? One was significantly higher at peak in the fall than the other. Interestingly the Florida winter peak was way less than Ohio. There is a regional lag in my state too. Some counties are still struggling with Delta (especially lower vaccinated areas) and didn't start until later. My region started earlier and peaked earlier. End result is the 2 states are not easily comparable at all.

 

[correcaminos]

Is this a “Ohio vs Florida” fight?

cause I’ll buy seats on the boards to watch that

You don't want to... trust me on that

 

[Bob Harlem]

Yeah…but there’s a problem coming up over the horizon…

Where? https://epi.ufl.edu/covid-19-resour...year-projections-for-covid-19-in-florida.html

 

[mmascari]

How can you say they look the same shape? One was significantly higher at peak in the fall than the other. Interestingly the Florida winter peak was way less than Ohio. There is a regional lag in my state too. Some counties are still struggling with Delta (especially lower vaccinated areas) and didn't start until later. My region started earlier and peaked earlier. End result is the 2 states are not easily comparable at all.

Just the slope up and down. The OH slopes don't look quite as steep as the FL ones in either direction. But, they look much closer than to one of the very flat slow rising and falling states. A steep up and down. Which was the original question, if OH wasn't falling as fast as FL fell.

The FL peak is clearly way way WAY worse than the OH one. Especially since it's likely way higher than the graph shows because testing was so bad at the same time.

The "sameness" was only referring to the slopes up and down. Not the the peak height or valley depth. A comment on the rate of change not the eventual values.

Edit: Maybe they all look that way in the first days and it really is just the peak plateau that makes them different. Adding PA to the chart looks exactly like OH for a few days as it ramps up, then they diverge and PA flattens. Maybe OH just went longer before flattening. Not nearly as long as FL obviously. Would need to really look at the data not just the picture.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I said this in July, I was heavily criticized for suggesting that the vaccines wane over time and that boosters would become necessary.
We now have an even better sense of just how much it really does wane and how much extra protection could be provided by boosters?

View attachment 599770

Unfortunately, we are making a rather weak effort to distribute boosters in the US. I see many people claiming that we have seen the last significant wave of Covid.
Sadly, I fear they are wrong. I believe we are just at the beginning of a winter surge, especially in colder states. The surge is starting in the coldest states, and it will expand as more states become colder. Even highly vaccinated states.
Just look at Vermont, which has about the best vaccination in the country:

View attachment 599772

There is good news: Even unboosted vaccination provides good protection against hospitalization and death. And further new treatments are quickly arriving. So a winter 2021 surge will be far less deadly than the winter 2020 surge.
But there is a surge coming to the Northern part of the country, and while deaths shouldn't be as bad as winter 2020, deaths will still increase significantly. I'll note in New York, daily deaths are already *higher* than they were in mid November 2020. NY is currently averaging 42 deaths per day. As of November 10, 2020, New York was averaging 23 deaths per day.

IOW, this isn't over.

Is it important to boost? Yes. Especially in key populations. But 60% efficacy is still good. That would be a good flu shot. The incredible efficacy of the mRNA vaccines has spoiled us.

Of course, 90% is better, though. And that’s why they are trying to get an EUA to boost all adults. The current guidelines are confusing.

 

[correcaminos]

Just the slope up and down. The OH slopes don't look quite as steep as the FL ones in either direction. But, they look much closer than to one of the very flat slow rising and falling states. A steep up and down. Which was the original question, if OH wasn't falling as fast as FL fell.

The FL peak is clearly way way WAY worse than the OH one. Especially since it's likely way higher than the graph shows because testing was so bad at the same time.

The "sameness" was only referring to the slopes up and down. Not the the peak height or valley depth. A comment on the rate of change not the eventual values.

Edit: Maybe they all look that way in the first days and it really is just the peak plateau that makes them different. Adding PA to the chart looks exactly like OH for a few days as it ramps up, then they diverge and PA flattens. Maybe OH just went longer before flattening. Not nearly as long as FL obviously. Would need to really look at the data not just the picture.

Again yes they were steep, but Floridas was more steep. At least to me. Florida rose much faster and fell faster. Ohio did not rise as fast. I van tell you from within it has to do with how rural the state is. Bigger cities were no where near impacted to levels rural were. We were not at all hit at the same time either. My area is about 3-4x the cases per population less than some. Ohio is weird in how it is and I expect us to plauteau on average if not go up due to the lagging vaccines and delta wave.

 

[havoc315]

Is it important to boost? Yes. Especially in key populations. But 60% efficacy is still good. That would be a good flu shot. The incredible efficacy of the mRNA vaccines has spoiled us.

Of course, 90% is better, though. And that’s why they are trying to get an EUA to boost all adults. The current guidelines are confusing.

While flu shots are, on average, about 60% effective (some more, some less, depending on flu variants), let's remember that the flu is far less deadly than Covid.

So it is important to boost. Unfortunately, even once boosters are fully approved for all, there has been so much muddled messaging about boosters, that I suspect adoption of boosters will be fairly low.

Had we started aggressive dissemination of boosters from September to now (that includes people being willing to take them), so that 80-90% of the population was not fully vaxed and boosted, then I think we would have had a pretty protected winter.
I don't believe we will go back to the 3,500 deaths per day of last winter, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see us return to 1,000-2,000 deaths per day by January. (many in vaccinated individuals, so far, there have been about 7,000 breakthrough deaths, and this will increase as effectiveness wanes and people don't get boosted).