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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

MrHappy

Well-Known Member
Sorry to hear about your mom. Hopefully she is doing better.
How sure of you it was unvaccinated adults at the family gathering that gave her Covid? Did you hear later that one or more had Covid? Could it have been a child present that had covid and had no symptoms? Also she could have gotten it from outside of the family gathering. Vaccinated adults can have covid with no/minor symptoms might have been present.
My unvaccinated cousin had COVID, along with his wife and newborn. They didn’t know it at the time they encountered my mother. But they had it, spread it, and moved on. I told my mother let this be a lesson: trust no one.
My mother’s temp was down to 97 today, lots of fatigue and no taste or smell. I’m calling that a win for now.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Our biggest failure in this regard is the inability to do something like this with the disjointed mess that is US healthcare IT and limited interoperability. When it was announced that the CDC wouldn’t be managing a central database, and multiple states limited access to the data (illegal imo, as we “own” our health data and they just manage it), a logical system like you describe isn’t going to happen. And it’s a real shame, too.

Yes, I also don’t think this is feasible without Universal Health Care, the more I think about it. Plus one already needs an electronic based repository of vaccine status (pre-COVID) to pull this off.
 

sullyinMT

Well-Known Member
Yes, I also don’t think this is feasible without Universal Health Care, the more I think about it. Plus one already needs an electronic based repository of vaccine status (pre-COVID) to pull this off.
UHC is t necessary in this respect. But the repository needs to exist beyond single health systems. States actually have vaccine info, that doesn’t cross state lines, and when we move from one state to another the transfer is pretty easy. There are efforts since the passage of the ACA to correct the issues, but it’s not robust in all 50 states. And then there are the active efforts in some states to block the info from being accessed by third parties for private passports. When the WH said there would be no federal program, we were doomed.
 

MisterPenguin

🐧🐧🐧🐧🐧🐧🐧🐧Fully Pfizered!🐧🐧🐧🐧🐧🐧🐧🐧
Premium Member
Vaxx'd or unVaxx'd you can still spread it just the same.

Absolutely not.

Just because both *can* spread COVID doesn't mean "it's the same." Absolutely not.

First of all, the vaccinated get breakthroughs at a fraction of the rate of the unvaccinated. Just look at those hospitalized for COVID, and the vaccinated is a small fraction of the total. SO.... if they're getting sick much less often, then they are contagious much less often.

Secondly, the number of days a vaccinated breakthrough infection is contagious is only a few days, wherein for someone not vaccinated, it's over a week.

So, let's say the more contagious Delta Variant has an R0 of 1.5. Now consider this scenario: a convention of 10,000 unvaccinated people begins with 10 infected people. The first day, they infect 15 more. On day two, the 25 infected people infect 37 more people. On day three, the 62 infected people infect 93 more people. And so on... The infection will explode in this superspreader event.

Now consider another scenario: there's another convention of 10,000 people who are all vaccinated. Ten of them show up infected with COVID. But, in the vaccinated population, the R0 is a fraction of what it is for the unvaccinated... let's say it's 0.15. So, the first day, the ten infected will infect at most 2 people. On day two, the 12 infected infect another 2. On day three, the 14 infected infect another 2. On day four, there are now only 6 infected people, because the first 10 are no longer infected BECAUSE THEY WERE VACCINATED. In a few more days, COVID will be eliminated from the convention of the vaccinated.

So... they don't spread it just the same.
 

MisterPenguin

🐧🐧🐧🐧🐧🐧🐧🐧Fully Pfizered!🐧🐧🐧🐧🐧🐧🐧🐧
Premium Member
Sick does not equal = contagious.
That's what the R0 adjusts for.

Or did you think that in this context 'sick' didn't mean 'sick with COVID' and you want to make a point that someone with the sniffles might have had a cold?
 

Ayla

Well-Known Member
Absolutely not.

Just because both *can* spread COVID doesn't mean "it's the same." Absolutely not.

First of all, the vaccinated get breakthroughs at a fraction of the rate of the unvaccinated. Just look at those hospitalized for COVID, and the vaccinated is a small fraction of the total. SO.... if they're getting sick much less often, then they are contagious much less often.

Secondly, the number of days a vaccinated breakthrough infection is contagious is only a few days, wherein for someone not vaccinated, it's over a week.

So, let's say the more contagious Delta Variant has an R0 of 1.5. Now consider this scenario: a convention of 10,000 unvaccinated people begins with 10 infected people. The first day, they infect 15 more. On day two, the 25 infected people infect 37 more people. On day three, the 62 infected people infect 93 more people. And so on... The infection will explode in this superspreader event.

Now consider another scenario: there's another convention of 10,000 people who are all vaccinated. Ten of them show up infected with COVID. But, in the vaccinated population, the R0 is a fraction of what it is for the unvaccinated... let's say it's 0.15. So, the first day, the ten infected will infect at most 2 people. On day two, the 12 infected infect another 2. On day three, the 14 infected infect another 2. On day four, there are now only 6 infected people, because the first 10 are no longer infected BECAUSE THEY WERE VACCINATED. In a few more days, COVID will be eliminated from the convention of the vaccinated.

So... they don't spread it just the same.
That's the latest shouting point/misinformation coming out of the anti-vax lunatics. They don't care whether it's true or not, as long as they can try to discredit the vax.
 
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Nick_A

On the edge of glory.
The CDC handed them that point on a silver platter by saying vaccinated people can carry the same viral load, without providing additional context.
I’m as pro-vaxx as can be, but the messaging and communication about all of this between the CDC, the FDA, the Biden administration, and Dr. Fauci has been awful. It’s almost like they don’t communicate at all, and one will say something that seems to catch the others completely off-guard.
 
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Incomudro

Well-Known Member
*crickets*
I don't have the answer, and I don't make policy.
In contrast to many here who are convinced that they have all of the answers.
I also have a life, and do not live to respond back to every response to my comments. I never look at these boards on my phone for instance.
What I can tell you with certainty however is that acting in a manner that is directly in keeping with the the way your opposition believes you to be - is not the way to go.
 

Virtual Toad

Well-Known Member
The CDC points out that research is ongoing. Here’s a deep dive on the topic of asymptomatic spread. One takeaway:

“Some studies showed that those without symptoms had similar initial viral loads — the number of viral particles present in a throat swab — when compared with people with symptoms. But asymptomatic people seem to clear the virus faster and are infectious for a shorter period.”

A lot of the folks you see still wearing masks in public are vaccinated. It still makes sense to do everything possible to protect others. But a false equivalency showing that vaccinated folks are somehow driving the pandemic is a stretch at best.

 

Chi84

Premium Member
I don't have the answer, and I don't make policy.
In contrast to many here who are convinced that they have all of the answers.
I also have a life, and do not live to respond back to every response to my comments. I never look at these boards on my phone for instance.
What I can tell you with certainty however is that acting in a manner that is directly in keeping with the the way your opposition believes you to be - is not the way to go.
No one has all the answers, but in my opinion it's not enough for people to criticize governmental responses without providing any viable alternatives. I'm aware that many people feel it's their right to do so - I just find it unproductive in the context of a discussion.

The fact remains that policy must be made, and where a novel virus is concerned, it's made by people who likewise don't have all the answers. Doing nothing is not an option, and just about any action will upset a significant number of people. If government policy is not in accordance with what most people want, the people making that policy will be voted out. From what I'm seeing, right now most people do not want the government to just throw up its hands and do nothing - exactly what should be done will always be a tough call.
 

Incomudro

Well-Known Member
No one has all the answers, but in my opinion it's not enough for people to criticize governmental responses without providing any viable alternatives. I'm aware that many people feel it's their right to do so - I just find it unproductive in the context of a discussion.

The fact remains that policy must be made, and where a novel virus is concerned, it's made by people who likewise don't have all the answers. Doing nothing is not an option, and just about any action will upset a significant number of people. If government policy is not in accordance with what most people want, the people making that policy will be voted out. From what I'm seeing, right now most people do not want the government to just throw up its hands and do nothing - exactly what should be done will always be a tough call.
It's not my responsibility to come up with viable alternatives, as I said - I don't make policy.
I can only tell you that "they" have just driven the wedge deeper and given the detractors more of the "evidence" as they see it.
The CDC handed them that point on a silver platter by saying vaccinated people can carry the same viral load, without providing additional context.
Absolutely.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
I don't have the answer, and I don't make policy.
In contrast to many here who are convinced that they have all of the answers.
I also have a life, and do not live to respond back to every response to my comments. I never look at these boards on my phone for instance.
What I can tell you with certainty however is that acting in a manner that is directly in keeping with the the way your opposition believes you to be - is not the way to go.
You are falsely believing these people are acting in some sort of rational manner. They are not. Again, any action or lack of action will be twisted as proof. People said they wanted an FDA approved vaccine, they got one, so they twisted it to be that the vaccine was not really approved. These are people running on feed stores because they’re convinced horse dewormer is some sort of viral miracle cure. Biden could go full on following DeSantis repealing and prohibiting mitigations and it would still be proof of the sinister plot and lies.
 

Nick_A

On the edge of glory.
You are falsely believing these people are acting in some sort of rational manner. They are not. Again, any action or lack of action will be twisted as proof. People said they wanted an FDA approved vaccine, they got one, so they twisted it to be that the vaccine was not really approved. These are people running on feed stores because they’re convinced horse dewormer is some sort of viral miracle cure. Biden could go full on following DeSantis repealing and prohibiting mitigations and it would still be proof of the sinister plot and lies.
That’s the problem. At this point, you’re not dealing with rational actors, as we said in a game theory class I once took in college. Once it comes down to your job or the vaccine, a lot of reluctant people will ultimately get the shot, if polling can be believed. The ones left- I just don’t know how you get through to them, unless you make it exceedingly difficult for them to travel or partake in any sort of leisure activity like eating out, going to the movies, etc.
 

Virtual Toad

Well-Known Member
It's not my responsibility to come up with viable alternatives, as I said - I don't make policy.
I can only tell you that "they" have just driven the wedge deeper and given the detractors more of the "evidence" as they see it.

Absolutely.
Except that the “they” you refer to are not taking action to create a wedge or drive it deeper. “They” are just trying to solve the problem, which is what a sane and rational society would expect them to do.

The wedges and division are being deliberately driven by a sector of the public who will always seek wedges and division on this issue no matter what. It’s like a dog digging in its heels refusing to take a bath or a petulant child refusing to eat their vegetables.

Blanket criticism based on moving goalposts will not provide a rational path past this crisis. Any rational public health policy to combat a global health threat must proceed in spite of the naysayers and not be framed to appease an irrational minority.
 

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