• Welcome to the WDWMAGIC.COM Forums!
    Please take a look around, and feel free to sign up and join the community.You can use your Twitter or Facebook account to sign up, or register directly.

Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

helenabear

Well-Known Member
One thing that does confuse me is why the Indian Variant is slowing down in India - cases now pretty low. Yet the same variant amongst a vaccinated country like the UK is growing massively.
The Delta variant took its natural course in India. Cases are slowing due to likely it just hitting massively unvaccinated group and nature takes its course. Our definitions must differ, as cases are dropping but not at all low. Same with UK, not massive, but increased because it hit later. Those not vaccinated or without 2nd dose are more likely to test positive.
 

Chip Chipperson

Well-Known Member
Right, I think it's 1 in 130,000.

The thing is, there are going to those who argue (and they will be technically correct) that they have a 0.0% chance of getting this condition if they don't take the vaccine.

Really though, the rate almost certainly is much higher. What percentage of 12-24 year-olds are going to complain enough that it actually makes it to the CDC database?

My guess (without anything to back it up) is that 1 in 20,000 to 50,000 might be closer to the mark.

I'd like to make a direct comparison with the death rate but, unfortunately, the CDC data that I found is split into 5-17 and 18-29 age groups.

In the 5-17 age group, there have been 2.8 million cases and 308 deaths: 1 in 9000.

In the 18-29 age group, there have been 6.1 million cases and 2592 deaths: 1 in 2600.

Hopefully, rational people will realize that it's better to risk heart inflammation than death.

Not to mention the fact that the same heart inflammation is a known effect of COVID-19 - so people who use this as an excuse to not get the vaccine are literally saying they want higher odds of heart inflammation and/or death from the virus. Of course, many of these people also think they "built up antibodies by not wearing a mask" (an actual meme I saw yesterday floating around Facebook), so it's clear that many people are too dumb to understand basic math and science while also being too stubborn to admit to themselves that experts in those fields (aka the nerds they picked on in high school while they were too cool to pay attention to their teachers) know more about these things than they do.
 

lisa12000

Well-Known Member
Something I posted on social media earlier

9th December was when our last rise hit this level in the uk - spot the difference
 

Attachments

  • 4B054602-A5E3-42E8-A803-501EB9714A33.jpeg
    4B054602-A5E3-42E8-A803-501EB9714A33.jpeg
    79.7 KB · Views: 67

danlb_2000

Well-Known Member
The other factor is how common it occurs with Covid infection. So you avoid a vaccine because of a really rare condition but are you actually more likely to get this with natural Covid? I believe that’s part of what the CDC will be reviewing. My understanding is there has been some research that showed it was a more common complication of Covid than some other viruses. Not sure if that’s been scientifically proven.

So if 1 in 13,000 people have this reaction to the vaccine you need to know how likely you are to catch Covid if unvaccinated and then how likely this side effect is. If there‘s a 1 in 13,000 or greater chance of getting this with natural Covid infection than it shouldn’t even be considered. If there’s only a 1% chance you get Covid if unvaccinated and myocarditis occurred in only 1% of people infected than it’s a 0.01% chance vs 0.0076% from the vaccine. My suspicion is that the rate of natural infection is higher than 1% and the rate of myocarditis is definitely higher. This also doesn’t take into account all of the other impacts from natural infection that can be avoided with the vaccine.

Unfortunately, the numbers won't matter to a lot of people, they will use the connection as proof that we were lied to and the vaccines are not safe.
 

lisa12000

Well-Known Member
How dare you post something that's not telling us how the sky is falling!
Haha I’m very sorry - thing is I can’t say anything that will persuade some people on here that there aren’t people falling down where they stand over here! Every single death is a tragedy but we cannot keep panicking over such small numbers in healthcare - we all know they will go up further but nowhere near what they could be

also we are testing a million a day!!
 

James J

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
No
Haha I’m very sorry - thing is I can’t say anything that will persuade some people on here that there aren’t people falling down where they stand over here! Every single death is a tragedy but we cannot keep panicking over such small numbers in healthcare - we all know they will go up further but nowhere near what they could be

also we are testing a million a day!!

We've unfortunately slipped under that now - down to 749k yesterday which puts us at 6,065,933 over the last 7 days.

Still, I'm not in the sky is falling category either and largely agree. I've had my first jab and hope that they bring the second one forwards for those aged 30 and over too, so I can get fully protected! Just hoping we can get travel to the USA back before too long and be in the clear to visit my wife's family in SC at Christmas...
 

Animaniac93-98

Well-Known Member
Looks like Canada will hit 25% of 12+ fully vaccinated by the end of today. Was over 24.9% at about 6:00pm CST.

First dose shots have slowed to a crawl now that over 76% of 12+ have at least one dose. I think eventually Canada will hit 80%, but not much more than that.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Right, I think it's 1 in 130,000.

The thing is, there are going to those who argue (and they will be technically correct) that they have a 0.0% chance of getting this condition if they don't take the vaccine.

Really though, the rate almost certainly is much higher. What percentage of 12-24 year-olds are going to complain enough that it actually makes it to the CDC database?

My guess (without anything to back it up) is that 1 in 20,000 to 50,000 might be closer to the mark.

I'd like to make a direct comparison with the death rate but, unfortunately, the CDC data that I found is split into 5-17 and 18-29 age groups.

In the 5-17 age group, there have been 2.8 million cases and 308 deaths: 1 in 9000.

In the 18-29 age group, there have been 6.1 million cases and 2592 deaths: 1 in 2600.

Hopefully, rational people will realize that it's better to risk heart inflammation than death.

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out in the Pediatric population. Albeit 4000 children in the US developed Myocarditis from MIS-C due to COVID. So even that group it's tough to argue that running the dice by contracting COVID is the better choice.

 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Looks like Canada will hit 25% of 12+ fully vaccinated by the end of today. Was over 24.9% at about 6:00pm CST.

First dose shots have slowed to a crawl now that over 76% of 12+ have at least one dose. I think eventually Canada will hit 80%, but not much more than that.

It's hard to say exactly where we are on the curve, but Israel looks like they eked out an extra 7% from where we are and the US 10%. I'm pretty happy with 80-85%, honestly. That should be sufficient, particularly if we can get decent rates for kids *which will hopefully be mediated by in school vaccine drives*.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
It's hard to say exactly where we are on the curve, but Israel looks like they eked out an extra 7% from where we are and the US 10%. I'm pretty happy with 80-85%, honestly. That should be sufficient, particularly if we can get decent rates for kids *which will hopefully be mediated by in school vaccine drives*.
There’s a slow grind that happens. In the US we dropped our pace way down when we hit about 60% but I think we end up somewhere around 75% when the dust settles. Depends on when full FDA approval occurs. If it’s not soon and cases keep dropping or remain low it may be lower. In most of the NE states we hit 70-75% and then the pace dropped but there are still people going in. One of the biggest issues we have now is the slow pace of the under 30 crowd. The anti-vaxx pushed narrative related to heart inflammation has really impacted the pace. It’s a serious but extremely rare side effect. I do think by the Fall if the full FDA approval in there will be many colleges and some high schools requiring the vaccine.
 

Tony the Tigger

Well-Known Member
This is why I don't like weekly reporting. We now have 2 straight days with an increase in Covid19 cases in the US. The Times is reporting another increase of 122 cases. That is a 2 day total of 227 cases. Yes, its only a tiny increase but there are still 3 more days before Florida reports and while I am one of the more optimistic people here, I am a numbers person and want everyone to act responsibly. Please enjoy yourself but use some caution. If you are not vaccinated you are putting yourself and others at risk because the variants are taking over and the risk you are taking is dangerous to you and others. We have Covid19 on the run and must defeat it and we can and will if we all do the right thing. We have 14 statess at 5 cases per 100,000 or more and 37 at 4 or less. Please don't let things get worse.
100% agree. We won’t be able to spot a trend in Florida for 3 weeks.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
This is why I don't like weekly reporting. We now have 2 straight days with an increase in Covid19 cases in the US. The Times is reporting another increase of 122 cases. That is a 2 day total of 227 cases. Yes, its only a tiny increase but there are still 3 more days before Florida reports and while I am one of the more optimistic people here, I am a numbers person and want everyone to act responsibly. Please enjoy yourself but use some caution. If you are not vaccinated you are putting yourself and others at risk because the variants are taking over and the risk you are taking is dangerous to you and others. We have Covid19 on the run and must defeat it and we can and will if we all do the right thing. We have 14 statess at 5 cases per 100,000 or more and 37 at 4 or less. Please don't let things get worse.

100% agree. We won’t be able to spot a trend in Florida for 3 weeks.

The CDC still posts the data daily. Every day they post total new cases for the past seven days and cases per 10k for the seven days. Divide by 7 and you have your rolling average. Through yesterday's update, FL is at 48.9 cases per 100k total for the past seven days, slightly under 7 per day.

Any trend can be spotted in far less than three weeks.
 

Register on WDWMAGIC. This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.

Top Bottom