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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
Since the vaccination rate is clearly not going to get over 65-70% of the population anytime in the foreseeable future (even CA is only at 59%), the best way to eradicate COVID might be to let the Delta variant rip through the unvaccinated population as quickly as possible to add to the immune population and reach the herd immunity threshold.
It's going to do that anyway in other countries. The worldwide vaccinations aren't happening fast enough to prevent that.
So we just throw up our hands and contribute to giving it opportunity. Gotcha.
No, instead of trying to force 30% of the U.S. population to get vaccinated, we focus our energies on distributing vaccines to billions of people worldwide who want to get vaccinated.
 

ABQ

Well-Known Member
The problem is the number stays the same for 7 days. While I agree a one day number means little and a 7 day average is better. it does little to show a trend. A moving 7 day average is the best way to know how things are going and to make matters worse there is no uniformity between the states on what day or days to report.

As for what I am looking for is when will the US get to 3 cases per 100,000 and then 2 and finally 1. We are making progress as the northeast is now one of the lowest areas in the US.
Mirroring case counts, hospitalization rates continue to drop, down another 100 on the 7 day trend from yesterday:
1623758718743.png
 

Heppenheimer

Well-Known Member
Seems that people are forgetting there are a large? Unknown? number of people that had Covid and are now have immunity to it as well. Studies have recently shown it has the same effect as a vaccine.

Point being is that sole focus on vaccine numbers only only tells part of the story. In all likelihood the amount of people now inoculated against the virus is higher that the just the vaccine numbers.

There are recent numerous articles talking about this. I’m not linking to any of them however as it’s a largely fruitless endeavor with dismissing links (as I’ve learned on this site) if one doesn’t like the source.

As I’m all things YMMV as to whether you like the idea or not but it is an actual thing.
The only published papers I could find on this matter don't say quite what you claim.


This observational study from Denmark found that prior infection from COVID overall reduced the risk of subsequent infection by 80%. Pretty substantial, but less than most of the vaccines available currently in first world countries. Crucially, though, the reduction in infections for people over age 65 in this cohort was only 47%. The abstract, though, doesn't mention the severity of the re-infection.

This study from the UK looked at the question from a slightly different angle, but found similar results. Prior infection was 84% protective against re-infection:


Again, pretty good, but substantially lower than immunity generated by the vaccines. This study was performed on hospital workers, so the cohort above age 65 was probably substantially lower than the Danish study.

But just like we don't know the duration of immunity from the vaccines yet, we also don't know how long natural immunity will last. And the question of protection from variants is also not yet known.

The most helpful hypothetical study would be one that compares protection from infection via vaccine versus prior infection during a single surge. But I couldn't find one that answers this question, and given the increasingly high rates of vaccination in the OECD countries, we may not see such a study.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
You have to do some math (divide by 7) but the CDC still seems to get daily data and report what seem to be accurate seven day cases per 100k. Go to https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days and then click the "+" sign to expand the data table.

I don't really think the numbers matter anymore. Unless a variant appears for which the vaccines are significantly less effective there is no longer a public health crisis that needs to be managed. Anybody who wishes to be protected against serious illness has ample opportunity to get vaccinated and protect themselves (with the rare exception of people who can't be vaccinated due to medical reasons or for whom the vaccines don't work as well).

Since the vaccination rate is clearly not going to get over 65-70% of the population anytime in the foreseeable future (even CA is only at 59%), the best way to eradicate COVID might be to let the Delta variant rip through the unvaccinated population as quickly as possible to add to the immune population and reach the herd immunity threshold.
To be fair 59% of the total population with 1 dose is about the level Israel is at and they are averaging a few cases a day now. They reached that level a few months ahead of CA and some other states so we could still be heading that way in a number of regions. The pandemic is likely actually over in Israel and if every state got to 59% vaccinated we would likely be at real herd immunity. I’m encouraged by the cases being down, but we shouldn’t just accept the vaccine level as is. We still need more people to get vaccinated.
 
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Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
The only published papers I could find on this matter don't say quite what you claim.


This observational study from Denmark found that prior infection from COVID overall reduced the risk of subsequent infection by 80%. Pretty substantial, but less than most of the vaccines available currently in first world countries. Crucially, though, the reduction in infections for people over age 65 in this cohort was only 47%. The abstract, though, doesn't mention the severity of the re-infection.

This study from the UK looked at the question from a slightly different angle, but found similar results. Prior infection was 84% protective against re-infection:


Again, pretty good, but substantially lower than immunity generated by the vaccines. This study was performed on hospital workers, so the cohort above age 65 was probably substantially lower than the Danish study.

But just like we don't know the duration of immunity from the vaccines yet, we also don't know how long natural immunity will last. And the question of protection from variants is also not yet known.

The most helpful hypothetical study would be one that compares protection from infection via vaccine versus prior infection during a single surge. But I couldn't find one that answers this question, and given the increasingly high rates of vaccination in the OECD countries, we may not see such a study.
80% and 84% is really effective! Folks forget the regular yearly flu shot is about 50 percent effective.
 

Willmark

Well-Known Member
The only published papers I could find on this matter don't say quite what you claim.


This observational study from Denmark found that prior infection from COVID overall reduced the risk of subsequent infection by 80%. Pretty substantial, but less than most of the vaccines available currently in first world countries. Crucially, though, the reduction in infections for people over age 65 in this cohort was only 47%. The abstract, though, doesn't mention the severity of the re-infection.

This study from the UK looked at the question from a slightly different angle, but found similar results. Prior infection was 84% protective against re-infection:


Again, pretty good, but substantially lower than immunity generated by the vaccines. This study was performed on hospital workers, so the cohort above age 65 was probably substantially lower than the Danish study.

But just like we don't know the duration of immunity from the vaccines yet, we also don't know how long natural immunity will last. And the question of protection from variants is also not yet known.

The most helpful hypothetical study would be one that compares protection from infection via vaccine versus prior infection during a single surge. But I couldn't find one that answers this question, and given the increasingly high rates of vaccination in the OECD countries, we may not see such a study.
There are a number of articles out there from various sites. Again I’m not linking to any one site because the now closed political forum proved time and again the futility of doing so.

Also- humans naturally get over viruses through time otherwise we wouldn’t have survived thousands to millions of years otherwise in our various forms of hominids.
Thinking (not saying you) that ONLY vaccinations count is short sighted IMO.
 

Heppenheimer

Well-Known Member
There are a number of articles out there from various sites. Again I’m not linking to any one site because the now closed political forum proved time and again the futility of doing so.

Also- humans naturally get over viruses through time otherwise we wouldn’t have survived thousands to millions of years otherwise in our various forms of hominids.
Thinking (not saying you) that ONLY vaccinations count is short sighted IMO.
When dealing with population-level data, though, vaccines are clearly the superior option for getting through this. We never really "got over" most viral illnesses prior to vaccination, and some of them left horrible death and disability tolls in their wake. For example, measles, influenza and smallpox probably collectively reduced the native population of the Americas by over 90% from their pre-Columbian height. Although they were more naturally resistant than non-native Americans, these and other diseases weren't exactly a walk in the park for Europeans, Asians and Africans either, particularly smallpox. I'm old enough to have grand uncles and grand aunts who didn't survive childhood due to diseases that are now vaccine preventable. The only reason I'm here today is because my grandparents got lucky.

The delta variant adds extra urgency to get more people vaccinated.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
But you have bought into and are spreading anti-vaccine misinformation.

Thank you for quoting that post. I grow tired of the anti-science posting their true colors, deleting the post, then claiming “I’m not anti science!” As they retreat and then try to repost the same...but “more sneaky like”

Just so we are clear, you are all advocating for the unequivocal safety of a vaccine that is still being trialed (young children). Think about that.

None of you know anything about the safety of this vaccine in regards to young children and nor do I.


No children have gotten it yet, ace. It’s being studied for that...and if no risk, line the kiddies up like the ice cream shop.

mouths closed...arms out. Suffering fools is not a “requirement”
 

Willmark

Well-Known Member
When dealing with population-level data, though, vaccines are clearly the superior option for getting through this. We never really "got over" most viral illnesses prior to vaccination, and some of them left horrible death and disability tolls in their wake. For example, measles, influenza and smallpox probably collectively reduced the native population of the Americas by over 90% from their pre-Columbian height. Although they were more naturally resistant than non-native Americans, these and other diseases weren't exactly a walk in the park for Europeans, Asians and Africans either, particularly smallpox. I'm old enough to have grand uncles and grand aunts who didn't survive childhood due to diseases that are now vaccine preventable. The only reason I'm here today is because my grandparents got lucky.

The delta variant adds extra urgency to get more people vaccinated.
I don’t believe I’ve argued that vaccines aren’t the way to go or aren’t more effective.

I am pointing out the focus solely on vaccination rates is short sighted and doesn’t tell the whole picture.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
It’s possible.

Its true that’s how we survived diseases throughout human history before vaccines.

We "survived" to the extent that you'd have cycles where a newly prevalent virus might kill 10-20% of the population every now and then.
The Black Death may have wiped out 1/3rd of Europe's population.

We've been "vaccinating" for quite a while even before formal vaccines. George Washington ordered all his troops to be inoculated for small pox-- Even though, at the time, such inoculation would kill about 2-3% of them.
 

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