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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion (Now with optimism!)

dreday3

Well-Known Member
I'll still wear my mask on planes/trains (not automobiles :D).

Today I was in Starbucks and then Target w/out my mask! Signs on the door now say encouraged for non-vaccinated. I've been vaccinated since February and it was hot, humid, we were walking and I said gah! Not wearing it. Most people still had one one, but heck, someone has to be first...
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
Who cares if we didn’t reach some arbitrary number by some arbitrary date that I posted in a thread in April.

If it was such an arbitrary number, why did you argue so much about it?

Yes, I agree it was arbitrary. The exact number was irrelevant. The relevance -- same now as it was then -- The relevance is whether we are hitting the level needed for herd immunity. At that time, we were observing Israel reaching that level and seeing the effects of herd immunity. Which is why we were using that number as the baseline.

Now, if we can get to herd immunity at a lower vaccination rate, then yay!!!
But, all signs are that we will not reach herd immunity at a lower level. The surge in the UK, which has slightly higher vaccination rates than the US, shows that the current level if inadequate for herd immunity.

So I don't care if it's 58% or 59.3% or 61%... I do care about whether we reach herd immunity. I've been wrong sometimes. Nothing wrong with being wrong.
In April, I was warning we weren't getting close enough to the level needed for herd immunity. You argued strenuously with me that we would get there, "worst case," by June 11th.

So at the time of those posts --
April 21st:
Israel has an average case rate of 141 per day. About 1.5 cases per 100,000. The equivalent of about 5,000 cases per day in the US. Our 7-day rolling average remains about triple that: about 14,000.
So if we had indeed followed your projections, then there is a good shot we would have 65% less cases right now.
The difference between actual herd immunity as opposed to vaccine driven case reduction.

So my warning in April was that we were not on Israel's path towards herd immunity. And we still aren't on the path.

You just bet me we would reach 70% of adults by the end of July. I truly am hoping that you're finally right. I want to be wrong. But maybe it is time to admit that things are not going as wonderfully as we would have hoped, and that this puts us at risk for resurgence. (No, not the same level of as December 2020... but potentially at the same level the UK is facing now).


Your only reason to post that is to say I told you so which is fine, I was wrong. It doesn’t bother me one bit to say that. If that makes you feel good about yourself I am sincerely happy to have brought a little joy into someone’s life. Should I go back to the Feb earnings call thread and pull out all the pessimistic stuff you were way off on about WDW? Nah, what’s the point.

What I am actually happy about and what we should all celebrate is the drop In cases and the drop in hospitalizations and the relaxing of restrictions that so far seems to not be driving a big spike. Despite not reaching some arbitrary target we are still seeing great results from the vaccines and we are still starting our return to normal.

Love returning to normal. Thrilled with the drop. Not thrilled with 14,000 cases per day and the threat of resurgence, when we should be under 5,000 cases per day and on the path to almost zero. (7-day average in Israel is now 0.1 per 100,000, the equivalent of 330 cases per day in the US... Imagine we had only 330 cases per day, instead of 14,000..... Now that would truly be a reason to celebrate!!!! So I'll smile at the current progress. But I'll throw the party when we are down to 330 cases per day. I fear that won't happen).
 

Incomudro

Well-Known Member
I'll still wear my mask on planes/trains (not automobiles :D).

Today I was in Starbucks and then Target w/out my mask! Signs on the door now say encouraged for non-vaccinated. I've been vaccinated since February and it was hot, humid, we were walking and I said gah! Not wearing it. Most people still had one one, but heck, someone has to be first...
Someone does have to be the first.
I watched a youtube video the other day, where vaccinated people were asked why they were still wearing masks outside.
The replies confirmed many of my suspicions.
One of them said something to the effect of: "I'll stop wearing one when I see other people not wearing theirs." (not the actual quote)
Well, it's got to start somewhere.
 

Phil12

Well-Known Member
Someone does have to be the first.
I watched a youtube video the other day, where vaccinated people were asked why they were still wearing masks outside.
The replies confirmed many of my suspicions.
One of them said something to the effect of: "I'll stop wearing one when I see other people not wearing theirs." (not the actual quote)
Well, it's got to start somewhere.
No, it doesn't. It might just be a good idea to continue wearing masks for the next year even if you are vaccinated. Masks and social distancing have been very effective in reducing influenza:

 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
I think you missed the context. The only reason we were ever discussing Israel is because they were ahead of us on vaccines and we used that as a proxy to estimate a ballpark level of cases we could possibly achieve given a certain vaccination level. The date was only relevant as to when we would see the steep drop in cases

"THE" steep drop -- the drop seen in Israel, which would now be the equivalent of 330 cases per day.

and the relaxing of restrictions. We have seen both already so we hit the important part of the target.

the "relaxing of restrictions" is a policy decision. They could have relaxed restrictions at 1 million cases per day or at 10 cases per day.
But we have not "hit the important part of the target" -- Unless you think 14,000 cases is the same as 330. Or even the level of 5,000, the equivalent of Israel on April 21.

This is you moving goal posts. Instead of us reaching herd immunity, you now want to celebrate, "woohoo, cases came down."

I never questioned whether cases would come down. I said I expected a massive decline in cases.... But that success would be herd immunity. Not simply a significant case decline.

Instead you took all those discussions as some sort of contest that if we didn’t hit their level of vaccination by a specific date

You keep missing the context. I have repeatedly stated, the exact vaccination number is irrelevant -- the goal is herd immunity. We weren't there in April. We aren't there now. And it's looking unlikely (but not yet impossible) that we will get there.



than I was proven wrong and you could play the gotcha game and say ”I told you so”. The end game has always been a reduction of cases and a return to normal.

So if we have 100,000 cases per day and 1,000 deaths per day right now, you'd be celebrating the victory of "reduction of cases" and "return to normal."

The goal we were discussing in April was NOT a mere reduction of cases. It was following Israel's path to herd immunity.
My goal has remained the same.
Has your goal now changed to "good enough", to "well..... the goal was under 5,000 cases per day, but as long as they lift the mask mandate, 14,000 cases per day with threat of future surges is celebration time!"




So while it brings you great pleasure to repost things I said months ago and point out where I’m wrong it’s irrelevant. As I‘ve said all along we don’t have to follow the exact path any other country has.

Actually... that's a change in tune. You claimed we were on Israel's path, just 6 weeks behind. You attacked me when I pointed out we were not on Israel's path.



So right now I’m happy with the progress we have made. I understand from your post that you are not “thrilled” with it, and that’s fine. I’m more optimistic in our prospects and you continue to be pessimistic. I’ll enjoy my return to normal, you keep doing you and be disappointed until we hit 300 cases a day now. Each post that daily number continues to drop. 3 months ago it was 10,000 then 3,000 then 1,000 and now 300.

Yes... My number has changed. Because my number has always been "the lowest possible." And Israel has been the evidence of how low you can go with vaccines and herd immunity.
So "6 weeks behind Israel".. which used to be your refrain -- Would mean celebrating at 5,000 cases by early June (6 weeks later than Israel).. and celebrating at 300 cases per day by mid July (6 weeks from now), and celebrating at under 100 cases per week by the end of the year.

See.. the number changes.. because if you reach herd immunity, the number keeps going down. If we are still having 14,000 cases per day in June 2022.. that would be a dismal failure. Though having 14,000 cases per day now is "ok" given the circumstances. It's certainly a vast improvement compared to where we were.

So yes.. we should have been under 10,000 by mid May.. under 5,000 by now, and in the 300 ballpark by July/August.. because that's herd immunity.

Goof.. this is something you said in Mid-April:

"My opinion is based on hope but also grounded in reality. We have real world examples in other countries that are ahead of us on vaccinations to see what the potential impact can be. We have numerous polls that say vaccine acceptance will be north of 70% and 65+ around 85%. Right now the 65+ demographic is 81% and still climbing. It hasn’t stalled out. We are close to seeing the demographic group who had first access to the vaccine get pretty close to the number in the poll so it’s not unreasonable to think the 70%+ could be a good number. Getting to 70% of the eligible Americans 12+ will get us over 60% of the total population. We will have more than enough doses to vaccinate those people by the end of May. I am actually optimistic that we can get closer to 80% of the eligible people vaccinated which gets us to 68% of the general population. We are seeing in a country like Israel that 59% of the population with 1 shot was enough to maybe reach herd immunity. We can get there and get there in less than 6 weeks:)."

I completely and wholeheartedly agree with the goals you set forth back then.
 
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Animaniac93-98

Well-Known Member
I'm not wishing for failure, I'm disappointed in the steep decline in vaccinations. I look at how well it's going here in Canada and that those under 40 have no issue getting vaccinated. We will probably hit 70% within a week or 2.

Right now Canada is at 72% with at least one dose for those 12+ and 63% total population.

I agree that 70% total population will happen within 2 weeks.
 

Animaniac93-98

Well-Known Member
Is it possible the leveling off of vaccines is partially due to the fact that it's Summer and people think COVID is more of a seasonal thing*? Are we gonna see a slight uptick in the Fall as the "wait and see" crowd starts to worry about Winter?

*it's not, but I can see people thinking that
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Did y'all hear the rumors of fireworks coming back around July 4?
In the fireworks thread the rumor was some CMs were assigned evening crowd control shifts starting 7/1 so since there are no parades, fireworks is most likely. 💥💥💥🎉🎉🎉🥳🥳🥳

I also saw a rumor that Disney added the word “standby” to the wait times on the park app. Ever since FP+ was taken down it just said “20 minute wait” and now it says “20 minute standby wait”. No reason to add the word standby unless there was an alternate option 🤞🤞🤞 No clue if that really means anything, but all in good fun to speculate. I know we probably shouldn’t get too optimistic about things though or we may trigger some of the doom and gloom crowd 😎
 

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
I had seen somewhere that kids start there as early as this week. They were waiting for the study on heart inflammation to start vaccinating kids. Without kids they have been stagnating at 60% of the population with 1 shot, but that appears to be more than enough to crush the virus in Israel. We should be above 55% and approaching 60% of the total population with 1 shot in the US by around July 4. Hopefully that same ballpark works for us too. We do have a Similar amount of natural infections but obviously the US is much larger and diverse so not as easy to get a unified national level.
Major news networks are reporting possible increased heart inflammation rates among young men.

CBS:
CDC plans "emergency meeting" on rare heart inflammation following COVID-19 vaccines

NBC:
Evidence grows stronger for Covid vaccine link to heart issue, CDC says

CNBC:
CDC says heart inflammation cases were higher than expected in 16- to 24-year-olds after second Covid vaccine shot, but still rare

Associated Press:
The Latest: CDC looking into reports of heart inflammation

Reuters:
Heart inflammation in young men higher than expected after Pfizer, Moderna vaccines -U.S. CDC
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
The media has got to tone down the headlines and tone of the articles. They're going into full panic mode on something that has happened in fewer than 500 people under 30 out of double digit millions.

Look at the AP headline (good) vs. the others in your post.
 

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
In the fireworks thread the rumor was some CMs were assigned evening crowd control shifts starting 7/1 so since there are no parades, fireworks is most likely. 💥💥💥🎉🎉🎉🥳🥳🥳

I also saw a rumor that Disney added the word “standby” to the wait times on the park app. Ever since FP+ was taken down it just said “20 minute wait” and now it says “20 minute standby wait”. No reason to add the word standby unless there was an alternate option 🤞🤞🤞 No clue if that really means anything, but all in good fun to speculate. I know we probably shouldn’t get too optimistic about things though or we may trigger some of the doom and gloom crowd 😎
FP is coming back but it won't be free most likely. I in fact love it if it's true. The less people that have access to it the better FP is.
 

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