Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[AmesTARDIS]

I didn't think virtually anyone had any side effects after the first shot other than a possible sore arm.

My father, who had Covid, experienced much stronger side effects with the second shot. I also had Covid, but experienced more side effects with the first shot. In speaking with others who have had Covid, it does seem like the first shot is the one that hits hardest for most, but there were more than a few with great side effect with the second. I find it all so curious.

 

[sullyinMT]

Wrapping up the boy’s waiting period. According to him, popping a zit is worse, so all the tough guys have nothing to worry about

 

[GoofGoof]

I thought we were discussing trends and what that meant to getting to 70%.

Sorry if I misunderstood.

The 70% target Biden set is 70% of adults. I was originally using the total first doses but it was pointed out that the number includes kids 16&17. The guy I was responding to doesn't‘ count kids being vaccinated towards the total. He says only adults matter so that’s why the focus on 18+. I still feel strongly that teenagers are just as important as adults in the vaccination effort. A 15 year old going to school, after school activities and a part time job is much more likely to be exposed to and spread Covid than me.

 

[Kevin_W]

I was on a call this morning with on of our company's sites in China, and they report that 80% of their employees have been vaccinated (presumably Sinovac). We don't have stats for any US site, but that was encouraging to hear.

My DD, who absolutely hates shots, asked if we could move her Saturday appointment up to today. I found one at Walgreens tonight, so we changed. We're all looking forward to a fairly normal summer this year.

 

[hopemax]

Re: Reinfections.

I think the rate of the reinfections in the US has been around .4%, which is small enough that we will deal with the consequences. For 33 million infections, that's 132,000 people, and most cases will be mild. However, the number I saw being used regarding Brazil's P1 variant is that reinfection jumped to 6%. Still sounds small, but 15X the rate. For our 33 million infections that's 1.98 million people. Then it's not so easy to just shrug off.

Remember, some people are freaking out about dozens of people, in millions of shots, getting blood clots. But they'll shrug off the chances that they'll be one of the people reinfected by a variant.

 

[wdwmagic]

Walt Disney World hosting 'Friends and Family' COVID vaccination event for Cast Members​

Walt Disney World hosting 'Friends and Family' COVID vaccination event for Cast Members

Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson shots are on offer at the event for Cast Members and friends.

www.wdwmagic.com

 

[GoofGoof]

I agree, I really dislike that the metric is "of adults". Just as bad when it's "of eligible". It should just be "of population", no need to do fancy math on what that means. If that means the target is different, that's fine just say what that target is.


A super good reason why the metric should be "of people". When Thursday's new vaccination number comes out, not all of it will advance the goal of "of adults". The whole number wasn't in the past either, but it'll be worse now.


Making it harder to know where we are.

People and the news WILL confuse the two. We'll see lots of comments and news stories on how many were vaccinated and how that gets us closer to the goal, but it'll be over counting the daily contribution.


Which is why everyone using "of population" would have been better.

Better yet would have been metrics based on spread, but we've all determined that's to hard and to abstract. Settling on Vaccinated was always a proxy. As such, it was also always more conservative than it needs to be. It would be so much worse to set a proxy measure that's to aggressive and doesn't actually lead to the spread reduction. Especially as the spread reduction will lag the vaccinated metric.

Let's say we told everyone that 35% was enough (to exaggerate wildly) and then when got there, there were still 500+ people dying everyday. There would be outcry, calls of useless science, how could the number be so far off, we cannot trust anything anymore. It would be bad. So instead, the metric is conservative and errors on the other side. We'll probably get the outcome we want first before we hit it. But, it's only "probably" not "definitely" and nobody giving a target wants that risk. Combine in all the "of adults" and other fudge factors and the target is going to error on the side of even more conservative.

Even in the reporting of the "70% of adults by July 4" target, the assumptions of what that really means are all over the place. Many will be disappointed if getting there doesn't mean "everything is dropped". No matter if that's what was meant or not.

The CDC does track 18+ separate from kids so it’s pretty easy to see adults vs children.

70% of adults is roughly 54% of the population but we will have some number of kids go as well by then. The 12-17 age group is roughly 30M kids so if 60% get the vaccine that’s roughly an additional 5.5%. Getting to 70% of adults and 60% of kids 12-17 would get us roughly to 60% of the total population. I’d be fine with changing the metric to 60% of the total population instead of 70% of adults. Either way is a tangible goal that’s easy to follow.

We need to let go of this fear of the percent not being good enough. It’s a target. You aim for it and if it fails to produce results you pivot. I could care less about cries of useless science and people not trusting the government, how is that any different from today. The same people who don‘t trust the government and don’t believe Covid restrictions are needed would still feel that way no matter what we do. They are no less likely to pull back or follow restrictions no matter what we do. For the rest of us I think it helps to have a target to look to. A finish line. A vaccination percentage is much better than just a date. At least we can back into an estimate of how many vaccinated we should need vs an arbitrary date. We may be wrong, but so be it. Better to get more people vaccinated.

At is point I would be highly in favor of Biden coming out and saying once we hit 70% of adults or 60% of all Americans vaccinated we will remove the recommendation of any Covid restrictions (including masks indoors) for anyone fully vaccinated. I know there is no practical way to enforce that and the Federal government doesn’t mandate any actual rules but if people think it will happen they will be more likely to get vaccinated.

 

[bryanfze55]

I’m stating what should be the goal.

not lowering the standards to accept what likely will be.

i also am far beyond suffering fools. Patience has limits.

if you know you likely won’t reach your goal...why set it at 70%

the C students will not inherit the earth

Fair enough, and I appreciate ambition - but realism too.

 

[GoofGoof]

Fair enough, and I appreciate ambition - but realism too.

Yeah me too. Sure it would be better if 95% of Americans ran out and got vaccinated as soon as possible, if they did the pandemic would be over in the US, we would have no covid restrictions left and very few daily cases. Obviously that didn’t happen. There is more than one path to a “return to normal”. We didn’t take the easy way, but that doesn’t mean we should throw our hands up and huff and puff about the people who didn’t get vaccinated. We should make even more efforts to get the remaining people vaccinated. We need to do whatever it takes at this point.

It is realistic we can get between 70 and 80% of adults to get the vaccine and a bunch of kids too. If that happens we may still get to the same end result, it will just take longer. Not the easy road, but still a path to a return to normal.

 

[Jrb1979]

The CDC does track 18+ separate from kids so it’s pretty easy to see adults vs children.

70% of adults is roughly 54% of the population but we will have some number of kids go as well by then. The 12-17 age group is roughly 30M kids so if 60% get the vaccine that’s roughly an additional 5.5%. Getting to 70% of adults and 60% of kids 12-17 would get us roughly to 60% of the total population. I’d be fine with changing the metric to 60% of the total population instead of 70% of adults. Either way is a tangible goal that’s easy to follow.

We need to let go of this fear of the percent not being good enough. It’s a target. You aim for it and if it fails to produce results you pivot. I could care less about cries of useless science and people not trusting the government, how is that any different from today. The same people who don‘t trust the government and don’t believe Covid restrictions are needed would still feel that way no matter what we do. They are no less likely to pull back or follow restrictions no matter what we do. For the rest of us I think it helps to have a target to look to. A finish line. A vaccination percentage is much better than just a date. At least we can back into an estimate of how many vaccinated we should need vs an arbitrary date. We may be wrong, but so be it. Better to get more people vaccinated.

At is point I would be highly in favor of Biden coming out and saying once we hit 70% of adults or 60% of all Americans vaccinated we will remove the recommendation of any Covid restrictions (including masks indoors) for anyone fully vaccinated. I know there is no practical way to enforce that and the Federal government doesn’t mandate any actual rules but if people think it will happen they will be more likely to get vaccinated.

That to me is just "good enough". The plan here is if 75% of the population has 1 dose then most of the outdoor restrictions will be dropped. Masking indoors and social distancing will stay til the majority have their 2nd dose. They are hopeful that by July most of Ontario will have their 2nd dose.

IMO the concern with being just good enough is many pockets were vaccinations are low Covid will continue to be a problem.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Yeah me too. Sure it would be better if 95% of Americans ran out and got vaccinated as soon as possible, if they did the pandemic would be over in the US, we would have no covid restrictions left and very few daily cases. Obviously that didn’t happen. There is more than one path to a “return to normal”. We didn’t take the easy way, but that doesn’t mean we should throw our hands up and huff and puff about the people who didn’t get vaccinated. We should make even more efforts to get the remaining people vaccinated. We need to do whatever it takes at this point.

It is realistic we can get between 70 and 80% of adults to get the vaccine and a bunch of kids too. If that happens we may still get to the same end result, it will just take longer. Not the easy road, but still a path to a return to normal.

Maybe by late summer or fall the pandemic will may be over by then! No masks no social distancing anymore!

 

[DCBaker]

 

[bryanfze55]

Yeah me too. Sure it would be better if 95% of Americans ran out and got vaccinated as soon as possible, if they did the pandemic would be over in the US, we would have no covid restrictions left and very few daily cases. Obviously that didn’t happen. There is more than one path to a “return to normal”. We didn’t take the easy way, but that doesn’t mean we should throw our hands up and huff and puff about the people who didn’t get vaccinated. We should make even more efforts to get the remaining people vaccinated. We need to do whatever it takes at this point.

It is realistic we can get between 70 and 80% of adults to get the vaccine and a bunch of kids too. If that happens we may still get to the same end result, it will just take longer. Not the easy road, but still a path to a return to normal.

I think we all just need to be grateful at how well these vaccines really do protect those who choose to get vaccinated. It’s really miraculous. And thus far, we have little reason to believe they won’t continue to be effective against the variants. Elderly Americans were dying in tragic numbers not that long ago, and now most of them appear to be protected. If you have the vaccine - you are golden. And it happened so much sooner than any of us would have anticipated.

 

[Roy G. Dis]

Great! We're still reliant on those indoor spaces making sure everyone is vaccinated though which Florida's governor has banned businesses from doing.

 

[sullyinMT]

Ok - the update makes more sense. A rational step in the right direction.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yeah me too. Sure it would be better if 95% of Americans ran out and got vaccinated as soon as possible, if they did the pandemic would be over in the US, we would have no covid restrictions left and very few daily cases. Obviously that didn’t happen. There is more than one path to a “return to normal”. We didn’t take the easy way, but that doesn’t mean we should throw our hands up and huff and puff about the people who didn’t get vaccinated. We should make even more efforts to get the remaining people vaccinated. We need to do whatever it takes at this point.

It is realistic we can get between 70 and 80% of adults to get the vaccine and a bunch of kids too. If that happens we may still get to the same end result, it will just take longer. Not the easy road, but still a path to a return to normal.

who’s throwing up their hands about those not getting vaccinated??

shut up and get onboard, pansies!!!

you’re now inconveniencing me and wasting MY time.

time for the pendulum of “selfish” to shift up the food chain

 

[CaptainAmerica]

 

[Mark52479]

Wow lots of breaking info coming out now.

Interesting news day for sure.

I honestly think we are going to see Disney loosen up on outdoor mask wearing VERY VERY soon.

 

[SamusAranX]

It seems like the CDC has basically thrown in the towel.

 

[disneygeek90]

Wow lots of breaking info coming out now.

Interesting news day for sure.

I honestly think we are going to see Disney loosen up on outdoor mask wearing VERY VERY soon.

Is every guest at WDW vaccinated?