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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion (Now with optimism!)

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Why do we need to reach 70% of the total population vaccinated? Israel is at 60% of the total population vaccinated and has effectively reached herd immunity based on their case numbers and trends. When you go down to 12+ that’s roughly 280M Americans so if we get to 70% of that group it’s roughly 60% of the total population.
That’s the goal the CDC set, I think it’s conservative because as you pointed out Israel achieved herd immunity at 60% and that’s the number I’m hoping we get to but increasingly feel we won’t. 70% of adults doesn’t get us to 60% total population it only gets us to 56% which therefore should not be the goalpost you keep touting. Reworking the numbers for 60%, we need 75% of all adults (with no kids) or if you count 12-18 year olds 70%.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
That’s the goal the CDC set, I think it’s conservative because as you pointed out Israel achieved herd immunity at 60% and that’s the number I’m hoping we get to but increasingly feel we won’t. 70% of adults doesn’t get us to 60% total population it only gets us to 56% which therefore should not be the goalpost you keep touting. Reworking the numbers for 60%, we need 75% of all adults (with no kids) or if you count 12-18 year olds 70%.
The goal that was set isn’t 70% of adults and then we stop. It was 70% of adults by July 4. The final number vaccinated will still go higher over time. I also think they set a conservative and achievable goal. Polling shows it‘s likely to be closer to 75% will get vaccinated but they left a cushion. They left children out because they just became eligible. I think kids 12-15 end up about the same percent as adults 18-64 which is lower than the 18+ number since that includes 65+ at over 80%. I think that kid group probably ends up in the 60-70% range. Overall we could/should hit 60% of the total population vaccinated by some time in July.

On Israel, we actually saw their cases drop off hard when they reached around 55% of the population with 1 shot. They just hit 60% yesterday, but the cases have been trending way down since early March when they were around 55% vaccinated. 55% in the US is 71% of adults.

Edit: here is a chart showing Israel hit 55% of the population with 1 shot on March 1 and the table below shows the start of their big decline right after that point.
82F12EA4-9587-4240-9C48-4AA45EF18A14.png

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LaughingGravy

Well-Known Member
The ones that are worried are the ones who had contacted covid and possibly are worried about side effects from getting the vaccine. My brother's friend a healthy guy in his early 50s no underlying health conditions tested positive after a business trip. He quarantined with symptoms and collapsed and was rushed to the ER then covid ward for several days . When he got his first covid shot two months later he said he felt like he experienced covid again and was bedridden for several days but not sent to a hospital. Doubts about getting the second shot.
After all that, doubts about getting the second shot? I wonder if he gets the brakes done on his car, he only gets three wheels done?
 

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
I said this:


I’m not making this stuff up but since that‘s the implication here are the screen shots from each day I referenced from the CDC page. They show how many adults 18+ had received their first shots as of each date It all ties to exactly what I posted. As I said we have no idea where the numbers will go from here and my only point in posting this is to show that the drop off has slowed week over week. Sorry for having optimism about the prospects of reaching the vaccination target. You guys may end up being right and we may fail. I’m not willing to give up yet and hopefully the people in charge who matter aren’t either.

View attachment 557156
View attachment 557157
View attachment 557168
The difference in charts most likely is explained by the following note in the CDC charts that I posted:

Bars shown in the darker blue shade represent the most recent five days of reporting where the number of vaccine administrations might be impacted the most due to delays in reporting. All reported numbers might change over time as historical data are reported to the CDC.

As a result, the numbers from the tables you reference reflect vaccination data that occurred across multiple days. In other words, the table you are referencing on (for example) May 5 represents some people who were vaccinated on May 4, some people who were vaccinated on May 3, etc. The CDC updates the daily numbers as reports of vaccinations trickle in to the CDC.

As the title of the CDC graph that I am referencing explicitly states, the graph represents "Daily Count of People Receiving Dose 1 Reported to the CDC by Date Administered":

1620912920333.png
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
It is what it is. We can’t make people go faster. The whole point I’ve been making is that the speed has slowed down but that’s not the end of the world (it was actually part of the plan) and not the end of the vaccine effort. People are still getting vaccinated. It hasn’t stopped. Did people think we would just stay at 2M doses a day until everyone who wanted a vaccine ppwent and then the next day would go to zero? That’s not how it works. The rush happened just like the polling predicted. The group who wanted the vaccine as soon as they could get it has gone. There’s another group who will never get the vaccine and they haven’t budged. It’s the group in between who say they will get the vaccine but haven’t yet that will go eventually. It’s a slow grind but I still think we will get there.

we actually could have done a much better job. And we all know it...and nobody will admit it.

shut up and do it. “National” program. Or if you want to refight the war - “statewide initiative”

...what times the parade? 🙄
 
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Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Why do we need to reach 70% of the total population vaccinated? Israel is at 60% of the total population vaccinated and has effectively reached herd immunity based on their case numbers and trends. When you go down to 12+ that’s roughly 280M Americans so if we get to 70% of that group it’s roughly 60% of the total population.

good god...why are we trying to make it “easier” on the wealthiest, most opinionated, most entitled citizenry in the history of the planet?

...aren’t we ashamed that this is a “given”?
 

CaptainAmerica

Premium Member
Why are we classifying the goal as 70% of adults? You do realize that’s only about 56% of the population right? Just because kids can’t get vaccinated doesn’t mean they can’t get Covid. If the goal is to stamp out Covid with herd immunity we need to get to 70% of the entire population. If we were only relying on adults that would require approximately 87.5% vaccination among adults, now with 12+ it means 82% vaccinations among eligible participants.

Just because OC Florida is defying their goal as vaccinated adults does not mean the CDC is.

And to head off the counter argument right away, here’s national Covid Cases broken down by age, you will notice that children are still getting the same amount of Covid cases daily that they were at the national peak, only adult cases have lessened.

View attachment 557155
We DO NOT need to VACCINATE 70% of the population. That has never been the case. 70% is the target of vaccinated population PLUS natural immunity through previous infection.

The goal should be "vaccinate as many people as possible, period." But if you're working timelines in your head, there's absolutely no reason why you should be targeting a total population vaccination rate of 70%.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
The ones that are worried are the ones who had contacted covid and possibly are worried about side effects from getting the vaccine. My brother's friend a healthy guy in his early 50s no underlying health conditions tested positive after a business trip. He quarantined with symptoms and collapsed and was rushed to the ER then covid ward for several days . When he got his first covid shot two months later he said he felt like he experienced covid again and was bedridden for several days but not sent to a hospital. Doubts about getting the second shot.

differences being first time it was trying to get him...second time it was teaching him to fight back
 

CaptainAmerica

Premium Member
I didn't think virtually anyone had any side effects after the first shot other than a possible sore arm.
There's some anecdotal evidence that people who have *had* COVID are more likely to react to the first shot in a similar way to other people on their second shot, but I don't think there's any data on that.

I had a sore arm for about 24 hours both times, absolutely nothing besides that.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
We DO NOT need to VACCINATE 70% of the population. That has never been the case. 70% is the target of vaccinated population PLUS natural immunity through previous infection.

The goal should be "vaccinate as many people as possible, period." But if you're working timelines in your head, there's absolutely no reason why you should be targeting a total population vaccination rate of 70%.

natural immunity wears off...and mutations could render it all ineffective.

the goal should be 99% and always should have been

STOP shouting what YOU wants because it’s CONVENIENT and LAZY and use COMMON SENSE or you won’t get to GO to AULANI as MUCH as you WANT
 

disneygeek90

Premium Member
There's some anecdotal evidence that people who have *had* COVID are more likely to react to the first shot in a similar way to other people on their second shot, but I don't think there's any data on that.

I had a sore arm for about 24 hours both times, absolutely nothing besides that.
I had a mild headache basically all of day 2 after the second and a sore arm for a couple days just around the injection area but that was it.
 

CaptainAmerica

Premium Member
natural immunity wears off...and mutations could render it all ineffective.

the goal should be 99% and always should have been

STOP shouting what YOU wants because it’s CONVENIENT and LAZY and use COMMON SENSE or you won’t get to GO to AULANI as MUCH as you WANT
I got my shots and tell everyone they should do the same. I'm still going to correct the doom-and-gloomers who don't understand the math.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
we actually could have a much better job. And we all know it...and nobody will admit it.

shut up and do it. “National” program. Or if you want to refight the war - “statewide initiative”

...what times the parade? 🙄
good god...why are we trying to make it “easier” on the wealthiest, most opinionated, most entitled citizenry in the history of the planet?

...aren’t we ashamed that this is a “given”?
It’s not about making it easier or harder to reach a goal it just is what it is. We can sit around and complain about the people who aren’t vaccinated but that changes nothing. If anything it only hurts. We will most likely reach a level of vaccination that is “good enough” to get cases way down and get us to the finish line and this will happen despite the people actively resisting the vaccines and their supporters. If everyone got on board with both mitigation efforts and vaccinations from the start of the vaccination process we would already be at herd immunity and cases would be near zero and all Covid restrictions would already be gone. But we chose another path. We will still get there...eventually. This way takes more time. It is what it is.
 

DKampy

Active Member
we’re they concentrated in pockets? That doesn’t make that necessarily incorrect.
I would find it hard to believe any county here has 100 new cases per 100,000....I check the cases every day here in Wi including the new cases in every county... we have been on a downward trend... and I have not noticed any counties having more trouble then the others
 

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