Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

I can't remember, is the OC change related just to the vaccinated target and then for all instances or are there any exceptions like in crowds?

My guess is that as long as Disney can increase capacity and sell out days (or at least close), they'll eliminate distance before masks. Just keep packing people into outdoor spaces closer and closer. Which will at least make more sense for keeping an outdoor mask. Since, if you don't need one outside when not in crowds, the sort of reverse is that you can be outside packed into a crowd as long as you have one. Our desires are probably the reverse, but we would all desire the park mostly to ourselves too.

Restaurant capacity will be the real ultimate limiter. If they could use all outdoor seating, they might pack that in too. The indoor distance while eating is the real restriction. Can't really fill the park completely and only be able to feed 50%.

I think it’s just outdoor masks dropped at 50% vaccinated.

The restaurant issue is interesting. Disney does have some in park restaurant space that’s seasonal and not always used, but there is limited ability to expand further and eating outdoors in July/August is hot and it rains briefly a lot of days.

 

[GoofGoof]

Could be very close to normal summer crowds. Remember, summer has been pretty low season at WDW the last 3-5 years.
Looking at park passes fully sold out for June and July dates already -- 35% attendance would be "normal crowds" for some summer dates at some of those parks.

Summer Is Not Peak Season at Disney World.

Summer crowds have been low at Walt Disney World the last few years, which bucks conventional wisdom that it's peak tourist season in Florida. Summer 2020 is likely to be the least-busy stretch of the

www.disneytouristblog.com

Could be. They are still missing all of the international tourists and most of the convention business. That could be partially made up for by pent up demand from Covid. Ultimately the 8,000 closed hotel rooms tell me they still aren’t expecting full crowds. If they announce Port Orleans and/or the other All Stars coming back that would signal even more demand.

 

[drizgirl]

In polling it definitely lines up as you say. For actual vaccine acceptance to date, in the younger demographics the non-hesitant are still not rushing out to get vaccinated.

So you’re saying the younger non-hesitant are ... as they say... hesitant?

 

[hopemax]

It's so funny to me that people seem to assume this is some "they didn't go to college" problem. Most people I know who are anti-vax, period, are actually liberal college graduated, "free range parenting", "all natural", super-socially progressive people.

I recently saw one of the CA counties that is doing the best at COVID vaccination is Marin. Marin, considered the center of the liberal, anti-vax movement. They are at over 80% at 1 dose. Most places would kill for that. The Bay area as a whole is at 74%. Normally, when we talk about the liberal anti-vaxxers, it is in reference to dropping vax rates from the high 90's to the low 90s which is a large enough decrease to allow measles and whooping cough outbreaks. With covid-vax rates that high, in a place that has a reputation for being anti-vax, I would conclude that this group is much smaller than this new breed of anti-vaxxers. Also, it looks like after gaining their anti-vax reputation several years ago, elementary school vax rates in Marin have increased. So whatever outreach and education was done, had a positive effect, and it likely had a positive effect on covid-vax acceptance too. If the liberal, college-educated moms actually learned something from the negative attention, the people profiting from anti-vax propaganda would be looking for more fertile grounds, and boy have they found them.

But like everything else, I'm sure the original narrative will stick for years to come. We will continue to fret & cluck at the 3-5% in column A, while diminishing the size of the 15-20% in column B.

 

[Roy G. Dis]

Dang. Stuff is happening quickly.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You misspelled indoctrination.

That would depend on the date/tinge of the doctrine

 

[AmesTARDIS]

Hopefully the masks will be gone by the time the Eagles start.

Yes, please!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Great! Hopefully the masks will be gone by the time the Eagles start.. I’m sick of masks after 10 days in Disney and im not going anywhere again until I can have mine off.

5-12 is gonna look better without a mask? Huh?

 

[AmesTARDIS]

High crime in big cities.

Gas shortages.

Inflation ticking up.

A shrinking military presence.

An expanding Federal government.

A Democratic President, House, and Senate.

Violence in the Middle East.

Trouble with Russia.

All we need is Disco and it’s a return to the late 1970s!

I swear, I was trying to read this to the tune of Billy Joel's We didn't start the fire.

 

[havoc315]

Could be. They are still missing all of the international tourists and most of the convention business. That could be partially made up for by pent up demand from Covid. Ultimately the 8,000 closed hotel rooms tell me they still aren’t expecting full crowds. If they announce Port Orleans and/or the other All Stars coming back that would signal even more demand.

Staffing issues may be preventing them from opening more hotels, despite demand.

Though, I said many months ago -- They might keep some resorts closed through the summer, even with totally normal crowds, given the difficulty filling them even in a normal summer. (Rumors they are going to convert more AKL rooms into DVC because they just can't book them as regular resort). I saw the "last minute" announcement of the Boardwalk re-opening as a sign that demand is stronger than they were expecting.

Ultimately, I don't think they will have "full normal" demand for the summer, but I do think it will be pretty close. Pent-up demand from domestic travelers will offset the loss of international tourists. You will still be down a lot of the convention business, but convention-goers have limited impact on park demand.

 

[Tom P.]

The rolling 7-day average of daily vaccination doses has started increasing again over the past few days. Perhaps a good sign?

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html

 

[jinx8402]

The rolling 7-day average of daily vaccination doses has started increasing again over the past few days. Perhaps a good sign?

View attachment 556918

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html

It could just a be the uptick of second doses since we peaked giving 1st doses roughly a month ago. Even still, more doses administered is a good thing.

 

[bryanfze55]

I recently saw one of the CA counties that is doing the best at COVID vaccination is Marin. Marin, considered the center of the liberal, anti-vax movement. They are at over 80% at 1 dose. Most places would kill for that. The Bay area as a whole is at 74%. Normally, when we talk about the liberal anti-vaxxers, it is in reference to dropping vax rates from the high 90's to the low 90s which is a large enough decrease to allow measles and whooping cough outbreaks. With covid-vax rates that high, in a place that has a reputation for being anti-vax, I would conclude that this group is much smaller than this new breed of anti-vaxxers. Also, it looks like after gaining their anti-vax reputation several years ago, elementary school vax rates in Marin have increased. So whatever outreach and education was done, had a positive effect, and it likely had a positive effect on covid-vax acceptance too. If the liberal, college-educated moms actually learned something from the negative attention, the people profiting from anti-vax propaganda would be looking for more fertile grounds, and boy have they found them.

But like everything else, I'm sure the original narrative will stick for years to come. We will continue to fret & cluck at the 3-5% in column A, while diminishing the size of the 15-20% in column B.

You make good points. They’re two different groups. The former are the “vaccines cause autism” group, and the latter are the “Bill Gates is micro-chipping us” group.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

You make good points. They’re two different groups. The former are the “vaccines cause autism” group, and the latter are the “Bill Gates is micro-chipping us” group.

But WAIT! There's more!

The group that thinks vaccinated people are shedding a bacteria that will make them infertile and that the vaccines are a means to "cull the herd".

Anti-Maskers Ready to Start Masking—to Protect Themselves From the Vaccinated

An anti-vaccine conspiracy about the vaccinated is leading some anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers to contemplate wearing a mask and social distance.

www.vice.com

 

[havoc315]

The rolling 7-day average of daily vaccination doses has started increasing again over the past few days. Perhaps a good sign?

View attachment 556918

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html

Hopefully we can sustain a higher level for a bit longer. It's a good sign, for sure. There may be some increasing confidence in the vaccine after the JNJ "scare" and with government now "pushing" it more aggressively.

I was a bit surprised Biden set forth a goal of 70% of adults by July 4th. He has been conservative in his goal setting. 70% of adults may be a reach... but this increase in doses could help get us there.

 

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[GaBoy]

But WAIT! There's more!

The group that thinks vaccinated people are shedding a bacteria that will make them infertile and that the vaccines are a means to "cull the herd".

Anti-Maskers Ready to Start Masking—to Protect Themselves From the Vaccinated

An anti-vaccine conspiracy about the vaccinated is leading some anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers to contemplate wearing a mask and social distance.

www.vice.com

My daughter just told me that's a show on HULU or Netflix. The "TV people" are talking to them. You can't fix stupid.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

My daughter just told me that's a show on HULU or Netflix. The "TV people" are talking to them.

This whole thing has just stunned me. I really thought the vast majority of Americans were smarter than this.

 

[DCBaker]

Here is a look at the latest report from the FDOH -

Here is what the state reports for deaths and hospitalizations - the first is from last Wednesday (May 5th), while the second is from Today (May 12th).

 

[GoofGoof]

The rolling 7-day average of daily vaccination doses has started increasing again over the past few days. Perhaps a good sign?

View attachment 556918

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html

The rumors of the demise of the vaccine program were greatly overstated The doom and gloom and vaccine passports now crowd were eating up those declining numbers.

Full disclosure, some of that uptick is more 2nd doses. In the past week we averaged over 750K new first doses a day which is down slightly from the 7 days before average. It’s holding pretty steady though. There may be a small uptick in the next few weeks as kids 12-15 go and then another bump up when Pfizer gets full FDA approval if any of the people on the fence sincerely are concerned with that.