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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion (Now with optimism!)

mmascari

Well-Known Member
Fauci disagrees. He seems to be discussing it.
There's a lot more nuance in that article than the headline would indicate.

Dr. Fauci, President Biden’s chief medical adviser for the pandemic, said that as vaccinations climb, “we do need to start being more liberal” in terms of rules for wearing masks indoors, though he noted that the nation was still averaging about 43,000 cases of the virus daily. “We’ve got to get it much, much lower than that,” he said.

Dr. Fauci’s comments on Sunday came in response to a question about comments that Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former head of the Food and Drug Administration, made last week on CNBC. Dr. Gottlieb said that relaxing indoor mask mandates now — “especially if you’re in environments where you know you have a high level of vaccination” — would give public health officials “the credibility to implement them” again in the fall or winter if cases surge.

Dr. Fauci, asked by George Stephanopoulos on ABC’s Sunday program “This Week” whether he agreed, said: “I think so, and I think you’re going to probably be seeing that as we go along, and as more people get vaccinated.”

“The C.D.C. will be, almost in real time, George, updating their recommendations and their guidelines,” Dr. Fauci continued. “But yes, we do need to start being more liberal as we get more people vaccinated.”

There's policy comments from Jeffrey Zients later in the article then too. Which lines up with my belief that the policy team should be setting goals not the science team. The science team should be telling us how we get to whatever those policy goals are.


Combined, the comments seem to indicate, that yes we should be removing different mitigation efforts over time, it's not an all at once at the end, and that we're not quite at the level we should be at yet. I don't think this is a surprise to anyone. I also don't think these comments reflect a headline of "drop them all now, we're done with mitigations" that some would like them to mean. A headline like that get's way more clicks though.
 

DisneyFan32

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
I see what you are saying. And I understand Disney will be conservative. But with us reaching the point where even public health experts like Dr. Fauci and Scott Gottlieb are saying that we are approaching the point where indoor mask mandates should start going away, I just am confident that the situation by October is going to be dramatically different than it is today. I've said many times in this thread that I remain an optimist. Even though vaccination rates have slowed, I believe we're ultimately going to do a good job getting people vaccinated, and I believe that over the next few weeks we're going to see case and death numbers plummet. I am confident that we will avoid significant spikes again in the fall.

That is all based on my gut feeling and my optimism. I could be totally wrong. But that's what I think as of today.
Yeah no more surges or spikes by fall. Then Thanksgiving and Christmas will be MUCH better than last year, as we will be back to normal with no masks by then! :)
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
There's a lot more nuance in that article than the headline would indicate.





There's policy comments from Jeffrey Zients later in the article then too. Which lines up with my belief that the policy team should be setting goals not the science team. The science team should be telling us how we get to whatever those policy goals are.


Combined, the comments seem to indicate, that yes we should be removing different mitigation efforts over time, it's not an all at once at the end, and that we're not quite at the level we should be at yet. I don't think this is a surprise to anyone. I also don't think these comments reflect a headline of "drop them all now, we're done with mitigations" that some would like them to mean. A headline like that get's way more clicks though.
I think it could be meaningful or it could be nothing. Historically speaking Fauci has made some comments on the Sunday morning rounds that tipped the hand of the administration‘s plans on a change. He has also made plenty of comments coming from his personal opinion that didn’t mean much as far as actual changes. What caught my attention was his reference to a potential CDC change coming soon. That could be a tipping of the hand...could be. Not getting overly optimistic, but something to watch for.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
I think it could be meaningful or it could be nothing. Historically speaking Fauci has made some comments on the Sunday morning rounds that tipped the hand of the administration‘s plans on a change. He has also made plenty of comments coming from his personal opinion that didn’t mean much as far as actual changes. What caught my attention was his reference to a potential CDC change coming soon. That could be a tipping of the hand...could be. Not getting overly optimistic, but something to watch for.
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If this holds for a week or two I think CDC will reduce restrictions, because we will have less new cases than the first wave (when we weren’t testing enough.)
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
I think it could be meaningful or it could be nothing. Historically speaking Fauci has made some comments on the Sunday morning rounds that tipped the hand of the administration‘s plans on a change. He has also made plenty of comments coming from his personal opinion that didn’t mean much as far as actual changes. What caught my attention was his reference to a potential CDC change coming soon. That could be a tipping of the hand...could be. Not getting overly optimistic, but something to watch for.

The pattern has largely become Fauci hints at upcoming change, but then the change is very incremental and disappoints many people.

His first hint at a change in guidelines for those that were vaccinated -- High expectations that vaccinated people could lift most restrictions -- Became, "it's now safe to have small gatherings with other fully vaccinated people, or a small unvaccinated low risk pod"

First hint about change to outdoor masking guidelines -- became continue to wear masks outdoors in crowded areas. But can dine outdoors without masks with vaccinated people, don't need masks when alone outdoors, small private outdoor gatherings, etc.

They literally just extended the requirement for masks on Federal regulated transportation (airlines) until September. There may be some incremental indoor masking guidelines changed soon, but nothing that gets rid of masks in indoor public gathering places.
 

DisneyFan32

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
The pattern has largely become Fauci hints at upcoming change, but then the change is very incremental and disappoints many people.

His first hint at a change in guidelines for those that were vaccinated -- High expectations that vaccinated people could lift most restrictions -- Became, "it's now safe to have small gatherings with other fully vaccinated people, or a small unvaccinated low risk pod"

First hint about change to outdoor masking guidelines -- became continue to wear masks outdoors in crowded areas. But can dine outdoors without masks with vaccinated people, don't need masks when alone outdoors, small private outdoor gatherings, etc.

They literally just extended the requirement for masks on Federal regulated transportation (airlines) until September. There may be some incremental indoor masking guidelines changed soon, but nothing that gets rid of masks in indoor public gathering places.
So by August or September I will not gonna wear masks anymore both outdoors and indoors soon?
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
It’s amazing how often doing things that have been done is considered impossible for Americans, weirdly it seems to come from many who would probably be described as exceptionalists.

The contradictions are incredible. "We should have incentives for vaccination. There should be a goal at which point mitigation should stop!"

Ok -- when Covid is essentially gone, reduced to a trivial level that can be easily contact traced

"That's not realistic! It can't be done! It needs to be a realistic goal!"

Well... Israel can do it.

"forget having goals, we should just lift all mitigation because... umm, freedom stuff"
 

mmascari

Well-Known Member
Keep in mind that, so far, the vaccines have been effective against all of the variants that have popped up. It is certainly possible that the virus mutates into a variant that isn't controlled by the vaccine. But it's also possible that even if we continue to have variants, the vaccine will work just fine against them. Variants rendering vaccines ineffective isn't a guarantee, even if we don't get the percentage of vaccinations we would like.

I agree. It’s very low risk and community spread is dropping every day so getting lower. The less people spreading the virus the less chance of breakthrough infection too.

It's not just "possible" that the virus will mutate, or that we'll have variants. Both of those are definitive. The virus WILL mutate, we WILL have variants. Most of those mutations and variants will be less competitive than the dominate strain circulating and will disappear, we'll never even hear about them, they'll just disappear.

In the shorter term, variants the vaccine is less effective against definitely are NOT a guarantee, as you said. It's like the virus is playing the lottery and it keeps losing, which is good for us. Get community spread low enough, and there will not be enough lottery tickets for the virus to ever win. That's the concern with not getting spread low enough if we don't vaccinate enough, it's like we're handing out free scratch offs to the virus. Hand out enough of them, and it's chances of winning increase. Vaccinate enough and this problem goes away.

I don't worry about a variant getting past the vaccine on any large scale today. I worry about us taking actions that encourage that outcome over time. Just like handing out antibiotics like candy has left us with antibiotic resistant bacteria to deal with. Or, lice resistant to the tradition chemical remedies.
 

HarperRose

Well-Known Member
The idea that potential future marketing should play a part in this decision is just...yeah, no. If disney wants maskless photos for posterity, they have the resources to put together photo shoots (closed set, vaccines required if desired, etc) to do that. It doesn’t require a change in park policy to do that.
Yeah, that point is nonsensical. *All* of Disney's PR is filmed either while the park is closed or made to look that way. If they want maskless advertisements for the future, they'll make them.
 

Bill in Atlanta

Well-Known Member
It's not a fair point. The vaccines work as they are supposed to: around 90% effective, not 100%. Also, obviously, not everyone has been vaccinated, and we are supposedly not allowed to ask for proof of vaccination. The argument is circular, the conclusion, erroneous.
I see it as a fair point in terms of public policy. There is a difference between Bill or Tony making a personal decision in light of the statistics you cite, and government actors using emergency powers to police people during a situation which is arguably not an emergency.


It doesn't. There is no "good" here. There is only new bad. Regardless of whether or not you know it, we already know it: the local mandates take the heat off the local businesses.
There absolutely are good outcomes when decision-making power is removed from government authorities and handed to individuals and business owners. The most glaring example is businesses which were forbidden to open for normal operations can decide for themselves how and whether to reopen. There are business owners in Florida (and elsewhere) who benefit here. I think we have tunnel vision when we assume that our own experience/reaction to a policy change is the only one.
 

Jenny72

Well-Known Member
The fact that cases are low in places that have fully opened is good news, but I wouldn't crow about it as if opening caused a drop in cases. At least, there's no known mechanism by which that would occur. That means something else is going on that is not under our control.

What this type of pattern (or lack of a pattern) tells me is that we still don't fully understand the virus. It has surged in ways that no one predicted, including a human tragedy in India. There are reports of re-infections there but no one really knows because it's too chaotic. This is the kind of thing that gives me pause when people say, "Epidemic over. Let's go back to normal." We could all use a little humility here.

I'll be the first to admit that I err on the cautious side (I'm sure many would say overcautious side), so I'm willing to listen. But how can we have a conversation when popular pundits are saying that the vaccine has likely killed many people (they won't tell us how many they've killed!) and Americans will be forced to get a vaccine against their will, and all kinds of flat-out nonsense? I don't know how to have a rational conversation like this.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
The pattern has largely become Fauci hints at upcoming change, but then the change is very incremental and disappoints many people.

His first hint at a change in guidelines for those that were vaccinated -- High expectations that vaccinated people could lift most restrictions -- Became, "it's now safe to have small gatherings with other fully vaccinated people, or a small unvaccinated low risk pod"

First hint about change to outdoor masking guidelines -- became continue to wear masks outdoors in crowded areas. But can dine outdoors without masks with vaccinated people, don't need masks when alone outdoors, small private outdoor gatherings, etc.

They literally just extended the requirement for masks on Federal regulated transportation (airlines) until September. There may be some incremental indoor masking guidelines changed soon, but nothing that gets rid of masks in indoor public gathering places.
There are multiple places where targets have been set which relax indoor masks much sooner than September. Not just red stated with Republican governors. PA has a vaccine target for mask mandates to be removed, the CA Governor said if vaccinations and case numbers continue to look good he will remove the remaining state wide restrictions in mid-June. It’s going to happen much sooner than September. If Biden and The CDC plan to release a plan which ties mask recommendations to meeting a target percent vaccinated it would be non-binding but would set a clear goal for states to achieve and also give businesses relying on the CDC a clear target to look at. I don’t know if that happens or not, but it would certainly help to unify the public in working to achieve the target.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
There absolutely are good outcomes when decision-making power is removed from government authorities and handed to individuals and business owners. The most glaring example is businesses which were forbidden to open for normal operations can decide for themselves how and whether to reopen. There are business owners in Florida (and elsewhere) who benefit here. I think we have tunnel vision when we assume that our own experience/reaction to a policy change is the only one.
You say this as though there are not a myriad other conditions that determine weather or not a business can open and operate in their desired manner.
 

DisneyFan32

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
Guys, if there's no problems anymore.....by fall/winter we will have a victory of enjoy in our rest of lives with no masks and social distancing for Christmas and Thanksgiving!
 

Bill in Atlanta

Well-Known Member
You say this as though there are not a myriad other conditions that determine weather or not a business can open and operate in their desired manner.
I think if you read what I was responding to, it will make more sense in context.

The FL Gov decision to remove local restrictions was unpopular with some business owners, because they felt the local restrictions added "teeth" to their policies, making enforcement easier. But it was popular with others, because they want to be more open than what the local governments were allowing.
 

ABQ

Well-Known Member
The fact that cases are low in places that have fully opened is good news, but I wouldn't crow about it as if opening caused a drop in cases. At least, there's no known mechanism by which that would occur. That means something else is going on that is not under our control.


I agree, for anyone to claim that cases dropped anywhere due to opening and removing restrictions is foolish. Cases drop in spite of opening up, not because of opening up. However, on the other hand, cases rose in spite of mitigation plans and restrictions not because of mitigation plans and restrictions is also a true statement, is it not?
 

Mr. Moderate

Premium Member
Guys, if there's no problems anymore.....by fall/winter we will have a victory of enjoy in our rest of lives with no masks and social distancing for Christmas and Thanksgiving!
Respectfully saying, I doubt it. From what information I'm reading and watching trends, working at a hospital, I believe we the general public will be wearing masks until next year sometime. FTR, I hate wearing masks and would love nothing more than to go back to the life we once had, but if I had to bet money, I don't think we as Americans will be out of the woods just yet. For some illogical reason, there's just too many in our country that aren't taking the vaccine, subscribe to the fear mongering out there, and in some cases, are defiant in their reasoning. The only way we can put this virus behind us is for all of us to be vaccinated and most likely on a yearly basis too. This is what some of the doctors at the hospital I work at, feel is the most likely scenario and I have to agree.

I would love nothing more to be mask free on my upcoming trip in October, but I have resigned myself not to expect it. YMMV.
 

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