Cash-Strapped Disney

JustInTime

JustInTime

Well-Known Member
𝙲𝚊𝚜𝚝𝙰𝚂𝚝𝚘𝚗𝚎 said:
Let’s see:

No. 1 thing was changed from a “pavilion” to a “center”, and perhaps Mary Poppins is dead. The rest - GOTG, Remy, Moana, Mousegear replacement, Dreamers Point, SSE redo, LWTL cucumber stand - appear to be full steam ahead.

Yes, sadly

Mostly yes

Not really a prediction or insight.

The latter part of this does not appear to have happened.

Yes.

Nope.

With new fireworks, a fancy castle, points of light installations, and allegedly a new Move It Shake It coming, I’d say this is half right at best.

Splash was never planned to have started by now.

So giving half credit for 8 and ignoring 4, I score this particular post 3.5 out of 7, or 50%. Less than 78%, and for that matter less than 87%, but far more than 0%, for sure.
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SSE, Poppins and Play pavilion. Also coco and unannounced Imagination.

Hoping most of these things still happen!
 
UNCgolf

UNCgolf

Well-Known Member
JustInTime said:
SSE, Poppins and Play pavilion. Also coco and unannounced Imagination.

Hoping most of these things still happen!
Click to expand...

Coco really can't happen without redoing the entire Mexico pavilion.

Unless they do start using standby pass at WDW and keep the people coming at any given time to a very small number, since that's all the queue can hold.
 
JustInTime

JustInTime

Well-Known Member
UNCgolf said:
Coco really can't happen without redoing the entire Mexico pavilion.

Unless they do start using standby pass at WDW and keep the people coming at any given time to a very small number, since that's all the queue can hold.
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It’s funny you say that because it was absolutely planned to go there. So that tells me that it is at least possible redo or no.
 
TTA94

TTA94

Well-Known Member
Tay said:
Are we at least getting a night time parade?
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I believe where things stand on the subject is it’s not a no but not a yes yet either. One insider on here, won’t call him out, hinted its a possibility. No insiders have said or confirmed it’s absolutely not happening. Just my own guess, If it does happen we wont see it until 2022 or possibly 2023 for the Disney Company’s 100th Anniversary. Rather it be delayed than not happen at all.
 
DoleWhipDrea

DoleWhipDrea

Well-Known Member
IMHO, there's a reason why the after-hours holiday events haven't mentioned cavalcades. I think they're still trying to work out all of the details for parades to return.
 
WDW Pro

WDW Pro

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
tanc said:
Sorry for bumping this, but here we are a year later and most of what you said happened. 50th anniversary certainly isn't being celebrated nearly as much as it should be. Splash Mountain having no real info other than a piece of art... it's just sad really.
Click to expand...

Before responding, let me say that it was a very pleasant surprise to log in today and see a flurry of activity in regards to this thread.

𝙲𝚊𝚜𝚝𝙰𝚂𝚝𝚘𝚗𝚎 said:
Let’s see:

No. 1 thing was changed from a “pavilion” to a “center”, and perhaps Mary Poppins is dead. The rest - GOTG, Remy, Moana, Mousegear replacement, Dreamers Point, SSE redo, LWTL cucumber stand - appear to be full steam ahead.

Yes, sadly

Mostly yes

Not really a prediction or insight.

The latter part of this does not appear to have happened.

Yes.

Nope.

With new fireworks, a fancy castle, points of light installations, and allegedly a new Move It Shake It coming, I’d say this is half right at best.

Splash was never planned to have started by now.

So giving half credit for 8 and ignoring 4, I score this particular post 3.5 out of 7, or 50%. Less than 78%, and for that matter less than 87%, but far more than 0%, for sure.
Click to expand...

I think you are skeptical about the OLC and Disney relations being more strained than usual. For evidence of that, look no further than Splash Mountain not being modified in Tokyo despite Disney desperately wanting to get away from Song of the South. There are other items that will make this more clear as time goes on, but it's hard to see a divide when money isn't moving like normal.

For your points about fireworks, etc, I actually revealed new fireworks were on the way a few months ago. I'm pretty sure I discussed it with Martin in private messages, but I was discussing what was then "Project Sparkle" back in the spring. In comparison to what we would have gotten for the 50th pre-pandemic... it's no comparison. There was significantly more planned, and other insiders can verify that.

It looks to me like in the midst of a crazy pandemic, I had 7 out of 8 correct. The Bob Chapek fall guy thing was a question... and I think Chapek actually was the fall guy. However, Disney+ was a wild success (at least in pumping up the stock while everything else was nightmarish). That saved Chapek, and then he surprised quite a few people by being very quick to move his people into key positions. There are two new execs on the media side, in particular, who have effectively shifted the company away from Iger loyalists.

Looks like 88% correct again.

disneyglimpses said:
So, we're kinda comparing apples and oranges. Since the original post, things turned around much unexpectedly and drastically for the company. Everything has gone as best as it possibly could have under the circumstances. I don't think it is fair to compare the internal forecasting a year ago to what actually transpired a year later; that's just Monday morning quarterbacking. Let's be thankful things turned out to be no where near as bad as they seemed.
Click to expand...

Things could have been horrific. If Disney+ had been six months later in launching, Disney would have been a company in a very different position today.
 
WEDfan9798

WEDfan9798

Active Member
WDW Pro said:
Let me preface this post by saying I know much more than I'm going to say in this thread. That's just the way it's going to have to be in order to protect sources, prevent doxing, and keep jobs safe. Additionally, it lets those sharing info with me know that if something needs to be off the record, it will stay if the record.

The Disney company is currently hurting for cash, and not by a little. The absolute destruction of the global film industry means that Disney is losing billions and billions of usual expected revenues with no certain end in sight. Mulan has been pushed to the end of August, but even that still seems optimistic, and likely box office revenues may by as low as 20% of what it could have been. A burgeoning cold war with China likewise makes promoting the film an uncertain formula. The MCU is currently benched, live action Star Wars is on pause, Indiana Jones 5 is more unlikely daily, and there's simply no good path forward outside of the animation studios. Furthering the dearth of income, Disneyland was prepped to reopen at great expense, only to be indefinitely postponed yet again. The money to reopen Walt Disney World has been immense, but with increasing COVID infections in Florida, it seems more and more likely that increasing capacity will be a slow process, which means revenues for WDW will be lower than projected when the rush was approved to get the parks open fast. Adding to this, capex projects needing completing at WDW are substantial, more than ever in the past decade. Conflict has broken out inside Disney's top levels with some pushing for continued spending in new projects, such as Splash Mountain reskinning, while others are extremely bearish with a view that Disney should hold every possible dollar.

It is from within this paradigm that Disney is now struggling with public messaging not matching internal capabilities. For example, Splash Mountain changes were announced with little design ready to implement, based off of a blue sky design that had a concept art package quickly produced for social media advertising. Just one problem: the actuaries were not approached, nor were budgets forecast for the changes. In fact, you might say a rogue committee approved the decision without determining the cost or the feasibility... and then the company realizes the issue after public announcement. So what to do? As of now, the plan is to "quickly" change the DLR version, where it is more likely to be received positively, then use Epcot capex funds that would have gone to Mary Poppins and JII to change the superior WDW version starting in 2022 or 2023. However, hopes that Disney can plus the attraction are difficult to materialize with Imagineering already completely flummoxed how they can possibly reskin many dozens of animatronics in a crown jewel attraction. One imagineer has compared the task to retheming Pirates of the Caribbean to a Jungle Book ride. Yet more attractions are likely to be modified, budgets be damned. This has created friction even all the way to the Bobs with Iger doing everything he can to save his legacy, while Chapek tries not to be the fall guy while looking at a company in dire financial straits. Whereas Chapek wanted to spend the capital necessary to retrofit MK for a pandemic and then slowly open other parks as demand and money permitted, Iger overruled the plan and pushed for a full reopening to prevent Universal from getting the upper hand.

Now the company has greater inner turmoil than at any point in the recent past. Spending is continuing in spite of depression-like revenues projected for the remainder of the year... and often on new projects of a social nature (changes are coming to Hall of Presidents, Jungle Cruise, Country Bears, Pirates of the Carribean, Carousel of Progress, etc). This is coming from one or two factions in the company who share overlap. Other factions are scared the company is stretched thin and needs to hold spending as much as possible. Fear also exists that if relations with China deteriorate, the company could lose both Shanghai and Hong Kong. Not since WWII has uncertainty been so high. The cost of maintaining parks during a pandemic are significantly higher, yet raising ticket prices is nearly impossible.

Going forward, what does this mean?

1. Epcot changes are likely to be MUCH less than originally planned.
2. Layoffs are coming.
3. Announced additions are on very long timelines.
4. Disney World having to close again would be devastating.
5. OLC and Disney relations are strained; expect that to manifest in visible ways.
6. Every penny counts, and cost cutting measures can be expected within 12 months.
7?. Is Chapek the fall guy? Many are speculating Iger plans to use him as the scapegoat.
8. 50th celebration is essentially canceled down to only things that cost little... no new floats, no big refurbs.

Additional info on Splash:
This whole Splash Mountain thing was torpedoed by Tokyo. Disney wanted to get completely away from Song of the South, but OLC essentially told them to pound sand. That meant they're stuck spending enormous money just to match the current quality, and simultaneously NOT getting away from Song of the South. So the only gain they get is Tiana might sell better in the souvenir shop.
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So as of this time, what changes of a "social nature" are taking place? Besides, Splash Mountain and Jungle Cruise?

Is the Mansion listed? What is going to happen to my Tiki Room or my Country Bears? Has anything changed on the list since then?
 
D

DVCakaCarlF

Well-Known Member
WDW Pro said:
Before responding, let me say that it was a very pleasant surprise to log in today and see a flurry of activity in regards to this thread.



I think you are skeptical about the OLC and Disney relations being more strained than usual. For evidence of that, look no further than Splash Mountain not being modified in Tokyo despite Disney desperately wanting to get away from Song of the South. There are other items that will make this more clear as time goes on, but it's hard to see a divide when money isn't moving like normal.

For your points about fireworks, etc, I actually revealed new fireworks were on the way a few months ago. I'm pretty sure I discussed it with Martin in private messages, but I was discussing what was then "Project Sparkle" back in the spring. In comparison to what we would have gotten for the 50th pre-pandemic... it's no comparison. There was significantly more planned, and other insiders can verify that.

It looks to me like in the midst of a crazy pandemic, I had 7 out of 8 correct. The Bob Chapek fall guy thing was a question... and I think Chapek actually was the fall guy. However, Disney+ was a wild success (at least in pumping up the stock while everything else was nightmarish). That saved Chapek, and then he surprised quite a few people by being very quick to move his people into key positions. There are two new execs on the media side, in particular, who have effectively shifted the company away from Iger loyalists.

Looks like 88% correct again.



Things could have been horrific. If Disney+ had been six months later in launching, Disney would have been a company in a very different position today.
Click to expand...
Any insight into the INSIDER article saying Iger and Chapek are at odds over Black widows release upsetting China?
 

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