basic question

[RealHawker]

If I wanted to stay at the Polynesian for one week at the end of august, every year, for the next 10-15 years, would it be worth DVC?

 

[dflye]

Since DVC doesn't have rooms at the Poly in their inventory, you would be buying into some other arbitrary DVC property (either through a new sale or resale.)

The weekly rate is the same for any time in August, only variation in the number of points needed is the room type.

Garden View would be 310 points for 7 nights.
Lagoon View would be 396 points for 7 nights.
King Kamehameha Club would be 507 points for 7 nights.

If you assume you'll pay around $85 a point for a new DVC purchase (or a higher end resale), that is between 26K and 43K to either pay for in a lump, or finance (and thereby increase the actual cost.)

Add yearly maintenance costs to the figure as well, which are usually 3 or 4 dollars per point per year, and will increase a little over time.

So that would make your ten year cost a minimum of 36K.

According to the current Disney pricing for next August, it would cost about 2450 a week for a Garden View and 3200 for a Lagoon View. Multiply that by 10 years, and throw in some price increases, and it still may come up as less of a total cost over time. Especially if you get a package that includes discounts for tickets and/or dining.

However, that doesn't take into account what you would do with your DVC points after your 10 to 15 year window. Would you sell them? Rent them?

The fact that you would have unused future years left in your DVC points will give them a definite value in 10 to 15 years, but you would be better getting advice from a DVC resale company as to how much you could expect to get as a return on your investment.

The more years you utilize your DVC points, the more likely it becomes a situation where you are getting enough value back to justify the purchase over just booking a regular room.

 

[RealHawker]

thanks, I guess it would have to be a long term family investment that i hand down to my kids if its still going at that point.

I have a hard time guaranteeing that I would go every year for the next 10-15 years, let alone more than that

Very informative tho., thanks

 

[dflye]

thanks, I guess it would have to be a long term family investment that i hand down to my kids if its still going at that point.

I have a hard time guaranteeing that I would go every year for the next 10-15 years, let alone more than that

Very informative tho., thanks

Well, it isn't as strict as a simple time share in how your points are used, so you could buy half as many points, and go every other year (banking the points every other year to be used in the next)

It would be more of a juggling act to do one trip every 3 years (with a purchase of 1/3 the points you expect your typical vacation to take), you'd have to bank one year, and then the next year use that years point and borrow the next ones.

If you don't use you points, you can "rent" them out, going rate approaches $10 a point if you are lucky.

 

[jdvm]

Excellent analysis, dflye. Very well thought out and articulated!

 

[tjkraz]

One issue that dflye didn't touch on is the fact that points at non-DVC resorts DO increase over time. The 310 points quoted for a week in a Garden view room is the value for 2006. In 2005 it was 301 points for the same week. This amount will continue to increase over the life of the contract.

By comparison, the point requirements for stays at DVC resorts CANNOT change (except under very specific circumstances which I won't go into here.) A DVC member can get a Studio room at the Beach Club or Wilderness Lodge(accommodations comparable to a deluxe resort room) for just 134 points in early August. Unless DVC shuffles the point charts (which has only happened once in the 13+ year history of the program), that room will cost 134 points in 2005, 2006 and 2036.

A One Bedroom villa (which adds a full kitchen, washer/dryer, whirlpool tub, etc.) is only 270 points for the week. That's less than the standard Poly room today.

DVC is a great value for those who enjoy staying at DVC resorts. It can save you tens of thousands of dollars off of cash rates (even discounted cash rates) over the life of the contract. But buying DVC to stay at non-DVC resorts is NOT a good idea.

 

[dflye]

One issue that dflye didn't touch on is the fact that points at non-DVC resorts DO increase over time. The 310 points quoted for a week in a Garden view room is the value for 2006. In 2005 it was 301 points for the same week. This amount will continue to increase over the life of the contract.

By comparison, the point requirements for stays at DVC resorts CANNOT change (except under very specific circumstances which I won't go into here.) A DVC member can get a Studio room at the Beach Club or Wilderness Lodge(accommodations comparable to a deluxe resort room) for just 134 points in early August. Unless DVC shuffles the point charts (which has only happened once in the 13+ year history of the program), that room will cost 134 points in 2005, 2006 and 2036.

A One Bedroom villa (which adds a full kitchen, washer/dryer, whirlpool tub, etc.) is only 270 points for the week. That's less than the standard Poly room today.

DVC is a great value for those who enjoy staying at DVC resorts. It can save you tens of thousands of dollars off of cash rates (even discounted cash rates) over the life of the contract. But buying DVC to stay at non-DVC resorts is NOT a good idea.

Thanks for pointing out the point cost increase for non-DVC resorts on property over the years, I totally didn't think about that, I'm used to the "static" prices at the properties where DVC has inventory.

 

[JimboJones123]

Thanks for pointing out the point cost increase for non-DVC resorts on property over the years, I totally didn't think about that, I'm used to the "static" prices at the properties where DVC has inventory.

i'm really having a hard time figuring out if dvc is really a good thing or not -- or if i'd just be better off staying on my own bill and saving even more bucks??

 

[Yellow Shoes]

There are lots of discussions on this topic, but the opinions fall into 2 distinct camps:

Definitely Buy--Buy Now--No, Buy 10 Years Ago
--It's vacation insurance for the next 40 years
--Best accommodations on property
--Vacation for "no cost" (but you don't believe that one, do you??)
--How can you NOT want to go to WDW every year?
--Opportunity to be the big shot and take extended family for a vacation of a lifetime.
--It's an investment.

Run Like Crazy from DVC
--How on earth can you anticipate your vacation needs (or anything else) 40 years in the future? How old will you be in 40 years? Most likely you won't be vacationing with your children then.
--Maintenance fees increase nearly every year (although within certain limits)
--If you won't go at least every 3rd year, you are paying for something you aren't getting full value from.
--There are 1000 investments that are better over 40 years than DVC .
--Yes, the price will go up, but bite the bullet if your trips are infrequent.
--Rentals and resales are not a sure thing. It is possible you will be stuck with points you can't use.


IMHO, DVC purchases are as much emotional as practical. For my family, it won't work. However, there are THOUSANDS of happy DVC owners.

If you have $20,000 lying around, buy DVC. If money is somewhat tighter, you might want to analyze your situation a bit more.

 

[dflye]

i'm really having a hard time figuring out if dvc is really a good thing or not -- or if i'd just be better off staying on my own bill and saving even more bucks??

I think these are the biggest hurdles to clear in order to get a DVC purchase to end up costing less than just booking rooms directly:

• You normally stay at a Deluxe resort or DVC property, and are used to the high cost per night.
• You visit WDW on a regular basis (every year or two at the least.)
• You intend to keep visiting WDW for a decade or more.
• You can afford the full purchase price up front (or pay off the mortgage before getting eaten alive by interest expenses)

If any of those hurdles causes you concern, then DVC may not be a good fit for your WDW usage pattern.