Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

Someone is clearly ready for the group to stop slacking and pull it's own weight too. Either that or you had to much/to little coffee today.

I wanted this to happen a different way. I was opposed to vaccine passports and mandates out of the gate. I thought we would all be better off as a society if enough people decided to get the vaccine and we would get out of this without requiring anyone to do it. That’s clearly never going to happen. I said from back in Mar/Apr that our plan should be to focus on vaccines and get as many people vaccinated as possible. When asked back then what happens if we don’t get enough people vaccinated my answer back then was we go to plan B which involves mandates and passports. Now is the time for plan B. With that plan there is no need for debate, no need for convincing anyone, no spinning of statistics or grasping at studies to support narratives. The vaccines are required in a lot of situations like workplaces and public settings and people either get them or they don’t. We don’t need people to change their mind or be happy about getting the vaccine….we just need them to get it.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I don't know why we vaccinate against chicken pox. I had it (as did many of my friends) when I was a kid. Other than some itching and trying not to end up with scars from scratching it wasn't a big deal. I had many bad colds and sore throats as a kid that were far worse than the chicken pox.

Statistically, they are pretty close to invincible against COVID. My post contained nothing but FACTS that are available from the CDC.

1) Varicella is one of the infamous "TORCH" viruses that can cause severe congenital defects if a mother is infected during pregnancy.

2) It causes severe encephalitis and hepatitis in rare cases, which tend to be more severe and common if an adult catches it.

3) It causes severe, potentially life-threatening illness in people who are immunosuppressed.

4) Wide-spread vaccination against chicken pox might eliminate the chance of getting shingles later in life. If you ever get shingles, write back to us and tell us whether or not you wished a vaccine could have prevented the illness. This is why we also vaccinate older adults specifically against shingles.

 

[Kman]

So because we don’t know if we will reach a vaccination level which will be high enough we shouldn’t bother trying? Take that argument outside of this politicized debate and it would seem very silly. Despite a nice win last night even if the Packers try as hard as they can they aren‘t likely to win the Super Bowl so should they just not bother trying? Ridiculous argument.

I admire your effort and your arguments are sound but you are talking to a brick wall from what I can tell. Folks who are anti-vaxxers/anti-maskers are going to fight this all the way- it doesn't matter how many people die or how overwhelmed the health system is It's all about "freedom". Ridiculous.

We have some of the same up here in Canada (I'm looking at you PPC supporters). In Canada, these idiots are actually protesting at hospitals and yelling at health care workers and patients and in some cases preventing them from entering the building.

It's too bad people can't get on the same page but between politicizing the disease (and efforts to mitigate it) and selfish attitudes it appears it may be a long time before we get to the finish line.

 

[lazyboy97o]

No. I'm saying that because the CDC stated that fully vaccinated people can and do still spread the virus that the vaccines don't have high enough efficacy to reach herd immunity. They definitely work to a high degree in preventing severe illness and significantly reducing death for people who are fully vaccinated based on the data.

That is nothing but your supposition that ignores what has happened before.

 

[GoofGoof]

No. I'm saying that because the CDC stated that fully vaccinated people can and do still spread the virus that the vaccines don't have high enough efficacy to reach herd immunity. They definitely work to a high degree in preventing severe illness and significantly reducing death for people who are fully vaccinated based on the data.

Breakthrough infections happen but that doesn’t mean the vaccines don’t prevent spread. Breakthrough infections are possible with measles too. That vaccine isn’t 100% effective. How did we eliminate measles (a virus twice as contagious as delta covid) if breakthrough infections were possible?

 

[aliceismad]

First off, your insulting tone is completely unnecessary.

The mRNA vaccine is the most widely taken is it not? And it is the most singularly focused intervention is it not? Targeting a specific aspect of original covid? And while antibody and other treatment exist, at least in my area and the hospital where I work, they are not widely used. Certainly not on a level of the vaccine and on a level that matches the number of infections. The vast number of covid positive patients are simply sent home. I don't know if that is purely a medical decision or if cost is a factor or both.

So in summary we have mainly (is this a better word for you?) a strategy focusing on the spike protein. A vaccine that appears to be less effective than before (or there are certainly questions there) and leadership's answer is go with another dose of the same. Not saying it's not the right move just pointing out what is going on.

Will the current building immunity rate of the populace suffice to successfully contain the pandemic or will continued variants make the vaccine more "porous" as time goes on? Or will something else happen that is an interplay between the two? Are these not legitimate questions?

My intent was not to be insulting, but in a world of so much disinformation, it's important to note that there are many people in many labs in many places working on many projects that are different approaches to covid prevention and treatment. Unfortunately no one can predict how new variants will arise or what they will be capable of.

I do not know which vaccines are most widely used; I am uneducated about countries other than my own. I'm sure there are more knowledgeable people here who could point to the proper data if needed.

 

[lewisc]

The monoclonal antibody infusion has some very specific inclusion criteria. If you're not over 65, you need a qualifying diagnosis.

FL has different rules

 

[Heppenheimer]

No it isn't "clear." A vaccine attempts to trick your immune system into thinking you have been infected. Why would the trick cause a better immune response than an actual infection of anything? It could be equal. Perhaps it could last longer due to spaced out doses but why would anybody ever expect it to be better?

Also, when Fauci responded to the question about the Israeli study, he did not dispute the level of protection or even hedge. He questioned the "durability" of the natural immunity.

No, that's not how vaccines work. They don't "trick" your immune system, they prep your immune system by pre-selecting a reserve of lymphocytes that can respond specifically to the virus or bacteria if and when it arrives. That way, your immune system can respond in a way that is comparable to a precision airstrike, with minimal collateral damage to the surrounding tissue. If those lymphocytes aren't pre-selected, the immune system needs to keep the infection at bay by a method that is analogous to an army of blind soldiers randomly firing machine guns in every direction (think of that scene in Predator where the commandos are shooting up the jungle), while waiting for the specialized troops to train and arrive in sufficient force.

 

[GoofGoof]

No, that's not how vaccines work. They don't "trick" your immune system, they prep your immune system by pre-selecting a reserve of lymphocytes that can respond specifically to the virus or bacteria if and when it arrives. That way, your immune system can respond in a way that is comparable to a precision airstrike, with minimal collateral damage to the surrounding tissue. If those lymphocytes aren't pre-selected, the immune system needs to keep the infection at bay by a method that is analogous to an army of blind soldiers randomly firing machine guns in every direction (think of that scene in predator where the commandos are shooting up the jungle), while waiting for the specialized troops to train and arrive in sufficient force.

You really are in a "I know better than the experts" mood today.

Love the predator reference. Any time you can get Apollo Creed and 2 future Governors together in one movie you’ve got me hooked

 

[Heppenheimer]

I wanted this to happen a different way. I was opposed to vaccine passports and mandates out of the gate. I thought we would all be better off as a society if enough people decided to get the vaccine and we would get out of this without requiring anyone to do it. That’s clearly never going to happen. I said from back in Mar/Apr that our plan should be to focus on vaccines and get as many people vaccinated as possible. When asked back then what happens if we don’t get enough people vaccinated my answer back then was we go to plan B which involves mandates and passports. Now is the time for plan B. With that plan there is no need for debate, no need for convincing anyone, no spinning of statistics or grasping at studies to support narratives. The vaccines are required in a lot of situations like workplaces and public settings and people either get them or they don’t. We don’t need people to change their mind or be happy about getting the vaccine….we just need them to get it.

There was a quote from Jack McCoy on Law and Order that sums up a lot of our attitude at this point. It was one of those crimes of passion episodes, and the junior attorney made a remark about wondering if the couple ever really loved each other. Cynical McCoy answered something like "I really don't care, as long as he's declared guilty".

To paraphrase, I don't care why people get vaccinated at this point, as long as they get it.

 

[mmascari]

No. I'm saying that because the CDC stated that fully vaccinated people can and do still spread the virus that the vaccines don't have high enough efficacy to reach herd immunity. They definitely work to a high degree in preventing severe illness and significantly reducing death for people who are fully vaccinated based on the data.

The "can and do still" is carrying a lot of weight in that statement. Vaccinated people can and do still catch COVID, at least statistically. The vaccine is not a force field. Still, that statement sounded like the vaccine was worthless when I typed it, yet it didn't mean that at all.

Do you have any reference to the R0 from vaccinated but still infectious vs unvaccinated people?

As long as it's under 1, even just a little, we'll get there eventually. Clearly, if it's way under 1 we'll get there faster than if it's just slightly under one.

If it's still over 1, but under the unvaccinated R0, we'll expand slower and have to count on other mitigations to get us the rest of the way.

I tried to google it, but I just kept finding the unvaccinated metric.


This is like when the news reports "most people something something". We interpret that as "just about everyone", but that's not what it means at all. If a building has 1,000 people in it and 501 of them love coffee, we can say "most people in the building love coffee". Reading that statement you might think you could ask anyone in the building if they love coffee and you'll get a "yes" almost all the time. Not really though, it'll be like flipping a coin, about half the time, which doesn't feel like most at all.

The "can and do still" is like that. If we have 1,000 vaccinated people and 100 of them develop enough COVID, and then 50 of them infect someone else, then yes vaccinated people "can and do still" infect others. Just 50 of the 1,000 in this example. That doesn't mean it's not super effective. It means if a vaccinated person is concerned they might be one of the 50, say they're visiting an immunocompromised grand parent holding an immunocompromised baby in a rocking chair, they should take precautions in case they're one of the 50 not the 950.

We could use some more reporting on what the actual transmission impact is. Without knowing it, everything is erroring on the side of caution in any area with lots of transmission. It's the conservative safety thing to do.

 

[Touchdown]

Again, their is a reason kids are being focused on, this is 2021 not 2020. Seems the CDC map is too busy for some people to make a point, so I’ll use my home state, Wisconsin. Cases have exploded in the past two weeks, but when you break it down by age, it is due almost entirely to kids getting it, adult cases are flat. (Also apologies for the broken up graph, but I couldn’t get the graph in all one view)

 

[aliceismad]

Again, their is a reason kids are being focused on, this is 2021 not 2020.

26% of cases last week were in children.

https://www.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-infections/children-and-covid-19-state-level-data-report/

 

[Communicora]

So do you vaccinate the children for chickenpox so they don't get it and then don't get shingles, or do you just vaccinate the adults against shingles?

You can't get the shingles vaccine until age 50, so I'm happy for the kids who are vaccinated and won't get chicken pox or shingles.

 

[Touchdown]

You can't get the shingles vaccine until age 50, so I'm happy for the kids who are vaccinated and won't get chicken pox or shingles.

Shingles and chicken pox are caused by the same thing, the Herpes zoster virus. That’s right, herpes, a close cousin of herpes simplex and just like simplex, zoster is forever. It remains in your body through the rest of your life. Shingles is just a flare of it. The shingles vaccine doesn’t prevent infection, just lowers your chance of a flair. Chickenpox vaccine prevents infection.

 

[correcaminos]

You can't get the shingles vaccine until age 50, so I'm happy for the kids who are vaccinated and won't get chicken pox or shingles.

Some are adults too. I finally got mine when I was a young adult, just over 23 years ago. Those first rounds of kids are now out of college aged. Then rare older ones like me exist.

 

[hismattjesty]

You can't get the shingles vaccine until age 50, so I'm happy for the kids who are vaccinated and won't get chicken pox or shingles.

Actually, not true. Had chicken pox as a child (long before an available vaccine), and shingles at 45. Had my first Shingrix dose at 45, and my second just after my 46th birthday. Just turned 49 last month, and no issues or flare ups since.

 

[lewisc]

I never said not to try. I said that data and guidance from the CDC indicates that the vaccination level that is high enough can't be reached. I also do not support mandating vaccination "for the protection of others" when indications are (again, based on CDC guidance for the fully vaccinated) don't protect others to a very high degree.

Vaccination is needed to prevent hospitals from a disaster. Elective surgeries are important to hospital finances and for patients. Elective doesn't mean cosmetic or nonessential

 

[DCBaker]

"Florida on Tuesday reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 13,201 more COVID-19 cases and five deaths, according to Miami Herald calculations of CDC data.

In all, Florida has recorded at least 3,517,177 confirmed COVID cases and 51,889 deaths since the pandemic began.

In the past seven days, on average, the state has added 376 deaths and 9,112 cases per day, according to Herald calculations of CDC data. The 376 deaths per day, reported Tuesday, tie with Florida’s highest seven-day death average recorded Monday."

"There were 8,438 people hospitalized for COVID-19 in Florida, according to the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services Tuesday report. This data is reported from 234 Florida hospitals. That is 749 fewer patients than yesterday’s report, but also from 21 fewer reporting hospitals than the 255 on Monday.

COVID-19 patients occupy 15.76% of all inpatient beds in the latest report’s hospitals, compared with 16.4% in the previous day’s reporting hospitals.

Of the people hospitalized in Florida, 2,206 people were in intensive care unit beds, a decrease of 153. That represents about 34.21% of the state’s ICU hospital beds compared with 38% the previous day."

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article254413113.html

 

[Chip Chipperson]

On the subject of claims that vaccines are the cause of Delta (and who is originating these claims), here’s what Forbes has to say:

“There is however one big flaw in such claims. It has to do with the space-time continuum and the lack of a flux capacitor.”

Did Covid-19 Vaccines Cause Coronavirus Delta Variants? Hereâs What The Timing Says

There are claims on social media that the Covid-19 coronavirus vaccines have actually caused variants to emerge.

www.forbes.com

Wow, anti-vaxxers just keep stooping lower and lower to "prove" that they're right.