hopemax
Well-Known Member
They both can be correct, and I wouldn't be surprised to learn that both are, in their own way. One is for data at vax+4ish months and less, one is for vax+6ish months and less. 2 months is a big variation in time when we're talking 6 months. One is for a broader population, one is likely only a subset. I haven't seen anyone say, the Israel data is outright wrong. The caution is that the vax+6 months is for a limited group (likely overly-weighted to the first to be vaccinated, which implies older, higher risk), so be mindful when drawing broad conclusions. The caution is: make sure you understand how big of a box to draw around that data. Not that the data isn't meaningful. Which is what I've been saying, it means something important in some way.
How long should we wait, and how does that impact the people with the potential to be infected between now and then? Like I said in my first post about this subject, care homes are starting to have outbreaks again due to the high numbers of unvaccinated workers. This is an article about my state:
Unvaccinated nursing home staff linked to rise in COVID cases, deaths
Lagging vaccination rates among nursing home staff are being linked to a national increase in COVID-19 infections and deaths at senior facilities in July, and are at the center of a federal investi…
www.wfla.com
"At one memory care facility in the Grand Junction area, 16 fully vaccinated residents were infected and four died, according to a CDC slide provided to The Associated Press. The residents who died were described as being in hospice care, with a median age of 93, indicating they were particularly frail."
"Of the 16 fully vaccinated residents infected at the memory care facility, CDC found that 13 developed symptoms, described as mild in most cases."
Another part of the article
"The CDC investigated several nursing homes in Mesa County that were experiencing new outbreaks. At one location — described as “Facility A” — 42% of the staff were still not fully vaccinated, contrasting with only about 8% of residents who had failed to complete their shots.
The CDC found a COVID-19 infection rate of 30% among vaccinated residents and staff at the facility, with residents accounting for the vast majority of cases."
That kind of percentage has my Spidey sense tingling in a way other reports of breakthroughs has not. So did the results of the first part of the Israel study with early June data to the people who collected it. So they did it again with late June and early July data which came back even worse. When the score changes, when ground conditions change, don't you want to know as soon as possible so you can adapt? People are going to want to know when they need to do something more to protect their more vulnerable family or themselves. Even for milder infections (we all still agree that chance of death is greatly reduced except possibly in the most fragile). Waiting provides confidence. Waiting doesn't provide protection.
But you are right about one thing, we aren't going to agree on this.
It’s fixed.
