Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
We can outsource and crowdsource expertise. I know that my Subaru Ascent is a very safe vehicle. I am not a mechanical engineer, but the guys at IIHS are and they told me so, and I trust their opinion.
So then why not trust an organization of fire fighters and professional fire fighters? Because instead of filing class action lawsuits and wasting time and money on those proceedings they are able to effectively do the same thing through their own authority?
 

danlb_2000

Premium Member
Thing is... infections with 50% fatality rates don’t tend to spread much, unless they have very long incubation periods.

Because:
1. Dead people don’t spread the infection
2. With such a high fatality rate, the level of precautions would be so ridiculously high

A virus with a long asymptomatic but transmissible incubation period.. and 2-5% fatality... would likely be the ultimate danger.

I was thinking hypothetically, a virus exactly like COVID but with a higher fatality rate.

This is actually one of my issues with that movie. They are showing a virus with rapid onset of symptoms, very quickly progresses to a debilitating disease and kills 100% of the people it infects. Once you got a handle on what you are dealing with, that would be a lot easier to control.
 

Heppenheimer

Well-Known Member
The biggest thing to know about the Covid19 Vaccine is that it only took our researchers 5 days to develop the vaccine. Yes, 5 days and then 10 months of testing. We need to work on speeding up the testing process do next time there are only hundreds of deaths.
There's really only two ways to speed up the process:

1) Have a pandemic with a disease even more out of control.than this one.

2) Deliberately infect the test subjects to see if it works.

With any vaccine, you need enough cases to accumulate in the placebo group to test for statistical significance. We were actually helped in this matter that the pandemic did rage so fiercely and with little seasonal variation, so we could reach that trial endpoint much more quickly.

The second option would never pass muster with an institutional review board.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Looks like JnJ is days away from receiving FDA approval to use a much larger plant to manufacturer their Covid vaccine. This will allow them to quickly ramp up their production in a few weeks. Good sign for the expanding vaccine rollout.

 

DC0703

Well-Known Member
The biggest thing to know about the Covid19 Vaccine is that it only took our researchers 5 days to develop the vaccine. Yes, 5 days and then 10 months of testing. We need to work on speeding up the testing process do next time there are only hundreds of deaths.
This was sped up considerably. Often drugs require years before they get approval.

It's also worth noting that one of the biggest reasons for vaccine hesitancy right now is "it was rushed"
 

eliza61nyc

Well-Known Member
"This isn't freedom. This is fear."

In broad strokes, you guys are taking the Tony Stark approach. Sign the Sokovia Accords, government knows best.
Because individuals have proven time and time again to be self serving and subjecating to others. Time and time again the "individual" has proven to do what fits "them" regardless to the destruction of others.
Yeah, I trust the government a hell of a lot more to do the right thing.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Governor DeSantis has expanded the groups eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine in Florida. Beginning March 3, eligible residents include:

  • Long-term care facility residents and staff;
  • Persons 65 years of age and older;
  • Health care personnel with direct patient contact;
  • K-12 school employees 50 years of age and older;
  • Sworn law enforcement officers 50 years of age and older; and
  • Firefighters 50 years of age and older
 

Tom P.

Well-Known Member
There's really only two ways to speed up the process:

1) Have a pandemic with a disease even more out of control.than this one.

2) Deliberately infect the test subjects to see if it works.

With any vaccine, you need enough cases to accumulate in the placebo group to test for statistical significance. We were actually helped in this matter that the pandemic did rage so fiercely and with little seasonal variation, so we could reach that trial endpoint much more quickly.

The second option would never pass muster with an institutional review board.
I remember that last year there was some talk about possibly going the route of deliberately exposing test subjects to Covid because of concern about the speed of development of the vaccine. I think that was around the time that the spread had slowed down in some areas. In a weird sort of way, we are fortunate that there was another surge in cases. Had their not been, the clinical trials might have taken a lot longer to get the data they needed and we wouldn't be as close to the end of this thing as we are.
 

Tom P.

Well-Known Member
Because individuals have proven time and time again to be self serving and subjecating to others. Time and time again the "individual" has proven to do what fits "them" regardless to the destruction of others.
Yeah, I trust the government a hell of a lot more to do the right thing.
Our entire system in the United States is based on the idea of individual self-governance. If you are taking the position that individuals are either too stupid or too stubborn to do the right thing, then you might as well scrap the entire American experiment and start over with a different form of government.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
This was sped up considerably. Often drugs require years before they get approval.

It's also worth noting that one of the biggest reasons for vaccine hesitancy right now is "it was rushed"
The process was not really sped up.
Because individuals have proven time and time again to be self serving and subjecating to others. Time and time again the "individual" has proven to do what fits "them" regardless to the destruction of others.
Yeah, I trust the government a hell of a lot more to do the right thing.
The government is made up of those same flawed individuals.
 
The formal definition of herd immunity is an R naught under 1 so their removal of restrictions was based on achieving the start of herd immunity. It’s pretty good for Israel that they are approaching that level with 52% of the population partially vaccinated and 38% with both shots. For those playing along at home if we hit the targets manufacturers have laid out and if we get the jabs in the arm done in a timely manner and if we get enough people to accept the vaccine we should be at that level before the end of April. Wouldn‘t it be great for the Summer if we reached the start of herd immunity as early as April 30 :cool::cool::cool:
You are correct: that they are still above 1 is not ideal.
 

Disney Experience

Well-Known Member
There's really only two ways to speed up the process:

1) Have a pandemic with a disease even more out of control.than this one.
Yep. If there was something that spread well asymptomatically (i.e. a very high R0 ) and a high kill rate once infected, or disfiguring/crippling. Also, there would have to be no readily available prophylactic nor treatment that can be provided to the masses.
Picture something worse than smallpox on steroids. Something like that would mean the benefit/risk ratio of getting a vaccine out is much different than is the case for covid. Hopefully BARDA and others look into what should be the protocol in that case.

2) Deliberately infect the test subjects to see if it works.
Yep. A good quick challenge study combining Phase 1/2/3 (big enough phase 3 to drop trial arms that are deadend from phase 1 results if those come in before enough data from phase 2/3). I think getting volunteers would be almost impossible (with a really bad virus). If there was treatment that worked, then a challenge study might be done. Instead you might have to just get subjects and placebo group from a hot spot, if there is no effective treatment.

Hopefully quick reuse of MRNA technology once a good spot in the virus is located.

Production as soon as first test starts. If you can get production beyond those needed for trial, allow those who have highest risks to voluntarily assume the risk and get it without waiting for trial results[effectively becoming a separate open trial). MRNA are self limiting as long as they are designed to producing something that replicates (The covid spike alone is not self-replicating)

This all assumes the virus cannot be contained/isolated from the public. (i.e. it has gotten to community spread). Hopefully you can get it(effective vaccine) out before it spreads everywhere, otherwise you get the problem of production speed and supply chain. People are right to say what I just described would be rushed science with significant risk. So it would have to be weighed against what the virus was doing and how fast it spread,.

Thank-god we have yet to have a situation like this. But it is one a country should try to plan for(But not break their economy to get perfect). Covid even with 500,000 deaths is not this. Though we do not know the extent of long-covid.
Covid allowed us to implement MRNA vaccines effectively for the first time.



With any vaccine, you need enough cases to accumulate in the placebo group to test for statistical significance. We were actually helped in this matter that the pandemic did rage so fiercely and with little seasonal variation, so we could reach that trial endpoint much more quickly.

The second option would never pass muster with an institutional review board.
A challenge study would pass muster if the situation was truly dire , and there is an effective treatment and minimal harm occurs if treatment occurs on symptom onset. Of course in the later circumstance there would have to be a reason that treatment as a solution did not mitigate the dire need for getting a vaccine out quick. Even a normal study is a tradeoff of risk to the subjects and the benefit to society (and potential benefit to the subjects).


Okay this is a Disney forum so I will not go too far down this bunny trail. Plus this is all speculation on my part.
 
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GoofGoof

Premium Member
You are correct: that they are still above 1 is not ideal.
Considering they are only halfway through with vaccines and they already hit a small period of time below 1 that’s pretty encouraging news. They removed a lot of restrictions and the number went up above 1 now which I guess is expected. Since they are about 2 months ahead of us it’s a good indication on where things could go here if we continue ramping up vaccines.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
Considering they are only halfway through with vaccines and they already hit a small period of time below 1 that’s pretty encouraging news. They removed a lot of restrictions and the number went up above 1 now which I guess is expected. Since they are about 2 months ahead of us it’s a good indication on where things could go here if we continue ramping up vaccines.

Maybe. Many of the restrictions they listed were limited to people with vaccination passports.
So R0 above 1.0 where over 50% are partially vaccinated and nearly 40% of adults are fully vaccinated.. AND a vaccination passport is being required for many activities..
We’ve had many periods of R0 below 1, even long before vaccines.

It’s premature to call it bad news. But it’s also hard to call it good news. And it’s hard to draw parallels to the US where we have a very different public health system, cultural attitudes, and likely won’t use vaccine passports.

The evidence I’ve seen from Israel suggest vaccines are definitely working. But despite 40% of the population being vaccinated, they still have significantly more daily cases and deaths than they were having prior to the December surge.

We are still very much in “wait and see.”
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Maybe. Many of the restrictions they listed were limited to people with vaccination passports.
So R0 above 1.0 where over 50% are partially vaccinated and nearly 40% of adults are fully vaccinated.. AND a vaccination passport is being required for many activities..
We’ve had many periods of R0 below 1, even long before vaccines.

It’s premature to call it bad news. But it’s also hard to call it good news. And it’s hard to draw parallels to the US where we have a very different public health system, cultural attitudes, and likely won’t use vaccine passports.

The evidence I’ve seen from Israel suggest vaccines are definitely working. But despite 40% of the population being vaccinated, they still have significantly more daily cases and deaths than they were having prior to the December surge.

We are still very much in “wait and see.”
The cases are higher than at points in the past but they are directionally declining and they started at a high point so it takes time to go down. Having an r-naught under 1 means every infected person infects less people than 1 so cases will decline but it doesn’t mean cases just go to zero. It’s not necessarily linear either. As long as the trend is downward that’s a positive. You are certainly free to view this as negative, not surprising, but I am choosing to view it as positive and will continue to believe in the vaccines.
 

carolina_yankee

Well-Known Member
Right, so in my anarcho-utopia*, you and all of the other people is those venues would be able to file class action lawsuits for something along the lines of reckless endangerment.

*I'm not really an anarchist.
You file class action lawsuits after people die. The goal of regulation (I.e. firecodes) is for people to not die.

Nobody fails to enact a safety measure because they want people to die. They cop out because they don’t think people will die - or they simply don’t think - so lawsuits won’t be an incentive.
 
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