I don’t get your point. I‘m not relying on anything, the cases are what they are whether it’s due to a new variant or not. If the UK variant is already here (which has been proven in multiple states now) then it almost certainly is responsible for some of the current surge in cases since it’s proven to spread more than the previous versions of the virus. You are also relying on a big “if” saying if the UK variant isn’t here yet that cases will get much worse. That’s possible, but just as big an ”if” as what I said.
Nobody is saying don’t take precautions, not sure how you got that from my post. As far as believing the vaccine can beat the virus, we can agree to disagree. I believe that if we get enough people vaccinated we can and will reach herd immunity.
Really, you don't remember March 2020? When every other post here was, "Oh, so THAT's what I had in November 2019, December 2019, January 2019." When every other poster was convinced that when the serology results came in that we would see that a lot of people already had this coronavirus and so those of us that were saying this was going to be a thing, and a big thing were...same as now: ruining everyone's good vibes.
That's why I am getting from several recent posts. People are looking at December and January's horrible numbers and looking at the UK variant and thinking THAT'S why it got so bad, as if it's already baked into our numbers, and they're dropping so we're good. And I am saying the same thing as I said back then... we are too early in the cycle for the variant to be *driving* the level of infection. And that is NOT the same as saying it's not here. Of course, it is here, but it takes a certain number of cycles of transmission to really kick into gear and start dominating the numbers. Experts say in the US, the variant is responsible for only 1% of our recent case load. That's all.
I was going to post the math earlier, but I didn't think anyone would care, or convince anyone of anything they didn't want to think about, but whatever. And these are not *my* numbers, but written about and described by the experts based on the math. The UK variant has taken thing from R=1.1 to R=1.5, and I'm betting most people don't think that that small .4 change is that big of a deal. But this is what it means:
Old, regular COVID, starting with 1000 infections, will translate to 2,593 new infections after 10 cycles.
UK variant, starting with 1000 infections, will translate to 57,665 new infections after 10 cycles.
Doctors and experts tend to notice those kind of jumps.
Cases have been bad, but they haven't accelerated THAT bad. Nov/Dec/Jan was mostly holiday-driven, American hubris, regular COVID with a cherry chaser of UK variant. The situation improved when the pressure "to gather" eased.
And really, the only explanation you can think of for me bringing up precautions, when it wasn't in your post, was that it had something to do with your post? I brought it up as a predictor for what I think will happen over the next 3 month, based on what Americans did over the last several months, as to why I am not more short-term optimistic. It had nothing to do with you.
So my predictions:
infections: We have one more surge to get through, when UK variant becomes dominant (experts predict end Feb/beginning of March)
behavior modifications to slow spread: resistance high
vaccinations: too late for the millions of people in phase 2/3 to avoid illness from this surge (just because phase 1 folks, don't die, doesn't mean hospitalizations and long-COVID complications cease to matter)
herd immunity: eventually, but irrelevant to the discussion for predicting what will happen in the next 3 months. Your "disagreement" with me about vaccines vs virus is overlooking that we are talking about completely different timelines. Once again, I am speaking to the next 3 months, only. So don't try to paint me as someone who lacks faith in a long term, positive outcome.
I know the IHME analysis says the US has peaked, but they also said their model does not include predictions of ANY of the variants. So it's more this wave has peaked. Last April's peak didn't mean it was over, last summer's peak didn't mean it was over, etc.
www.cnbc.com
