Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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seascape

Well-Known Member
Well IHME came out with their first forecast in a month, here’s the Global prediction:
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Looks bad doesn’t it? I agree Globally it looks terrible. Let’s look at the United States:
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While in their notes they mention that we could see a spike like Europe they currently not predicting it, speaking of Europe:
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They have officially peaked and are expected to traIl North Americas dip by a month. So where exactly are all of these new cases going to occur? It’s in one country, China:
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Bottom line, this is going to be devastating for China, and her suffering is going to cause global economic pain as her economy is going to shut down. Inflation is going to continue to rise as supply dips further. With all these infections, the risk for a new varient is high, and that will be an additional concern. That said Covid infections are expected to be low through the foreseeable future in the west.
The supplychain problem was well predicted. We saw it with our ocer dependance on medicine, facemasks and other PPP. Anyone who watched sharktank should have known it listening to how Mr Wonderful told everyone they needed to move their production to China. We did that to ourselves and almost every one of our elected officials had no problem with it. in fact even today we are sending our production to China. If you doubt that look at greenenergy and where the solar cells are made. We are still giving away our future to China. The time has come to take it back. Buy American. Make it here. We should be the worlds energy supplier not importing solar cells and wind turnbines.
 

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
How so? Again they can’t predict new varients, but once a wave starts they have been spot on. Recently they 100% nailed the omicron wave in the US and when it would end.
I've noticed the same.

Though I will say I don't think the next increases for the globe are as bad as some really. The death count is a bit sad, but I do think that attempting to be covid zero is sadly biting some regions in the rear. Not that I want cases or deaths but you cannot be covid zero forever if so many places are not. It only works if everywhere is zero and that was never going to happen.
 

TehPuddingMan

Well-Known Member
How so? Again they can’t predict new varients, but once a wave starts they have been spot on. Recently they 100% nailed the omicron wave in the US and when it would end.
I followed them for the first year and found them to be completely unreliable. There’s a reason why all media started ignoring them. The most accurate model has been the university of Florida’s.
 

GimpYancIent

Well-Known Member
The supplychain problem was well predicted. We saw it with our ocer dependance on medicine, facemasks and other PPP. Anyone who watched sharktank should have known it listening to how Mr Wonderful told everyone they needed to move their production to China. We did that to ourselves and almost every one of our elected officials had no problem with it. in fact even today we are sending our production to China. If you doubt that look at greenenergy and where the solar cells are made. We are still giving away our future to China. The time has come to take it back. Buy American. Make it here. We should be the worlds energy supplier not importing solar cells and wind turnbines.
Just as production was moved to China industry can move production away from China. How about that other continent to the south, you know South America. Lots of countries there would welcome investment and business which would mean a higher standard of living for them, a better relationship with the U.S. and a shorter supply chain. Disney can start by divesting itself of the looser park SD. Disney does not own it anyway, just a minority share holder.
 

correcaminos

Well-Known Member

danlb_2000

Premium Member
Just as production was moved to China industry can move production away from China. How about that other continent to the south, you know South America. Lots of countries there would welcome investment and business which would mean a higher standard of living for them, a better relationship with the U.S. and a shorter supply chain. Disney can start by divesting itself of the looser park SD. Disney does not own it anyway, just a minority share holder.

Yeah, companies are starting to see the risk of manufacturing in China, but they are just looking for other non-US countries instead of bringing everything back to the US.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Just as production was moved to China industry can move production away from China. How about that other continent to the south, you know South America. Lots of countries there would welcome investment and business which would mean a higher standard of living for them, a better relationship with the U.S. and a shorter supply chain. Disney can start by divesting itself of the looser park SD. Disney does not own it anyway, just a minority share holder.
The efficiency of production in China does not compare to other parts of the world. Factories are built with staff housing in the same location so ops can run 24/7 to keep up with demand of a number of products. This was typed from a device made there. I've traveled in SA where many holidays are celebrated , towns close up, shortened work hours etc. If efficient production would work there, I beg to differ. If anyone can suggest what other country can manufacture and supply approx 70% of USA meds like China , I'm open to ideas. Moving main ops from China to other parts of the world is wishful thinking. Companies including US ops have invested billions in China , so it is what it is.
 

Andrew C

You know what's funny?
The efficiency of production in China does not compare to other parts of the world. Factories are built with staff housing in the same location so ops can run 24/7 to keep up with demand of a number of products. This was typed from a device made there. I've traveled in SA where many holidays are celebrated , towns close up, shortened work hours etc. If efficient production would work there, I beg to differ. If anyone can suggest what other country can manufacture and supply approx 70% of USA meds like China , I'm open to ideas. Moving main ops from China to other parts of the world is wishful thinking. Companies including US ops have invested billions in China , so it is what it is.
You continue to be such a negative Nancy on this topic. It’s not a question of what is possible today. It’s a question of what can be possible in the future. What is able to be, not what is now. No one expects a change with the flick of a switch. Have some vision.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
You continue to be such a negative Nancy on this topic. It’s not a question of what is possible today. It’s a question of what can be possible in the future. What is able to be, not what is now. No one expects a change with the flick of a switch. Have some vision.
It is a pipe dream to think other countries to rival or exceed China productivity especially the suggestion of SA, but it is ok to dream..
 

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
Sorry. Yes. I will.
I kind of enjoy the thread and if we annoy the mom too much I'd worry about shutting us down like the mask thread did is all :)

Didn't want people to think I'm really scolding or anything.

I'm trying to see if we had any cases this week in the schools for covid. We are not seeing an update. I got zero e-mails from the school which we still get this week. The week before spring break was 1 - literally 1 out of about 7500 people. Week before was 2. I expect a jump simply because I don't think we're close to "covid zero" in the area to have only one or two a week. But I could be wrong...
 

Nubs70

Well-Known Member
The efficiency of production in China does not compare to other parts of the world. Factories are built with staff housing in the same location so ops can run 24/7 to keep up with demand of a number of products. This was typed from a device made there. I've traveled in SA where many holidays are celebrated , towns close up, shortened work hours etc. If efficient production would work there, I beg to differ. If anyone can suggest what other country can manufacture and supply approx 70% of USA meds like China , I'm open to ideas. Moving main ops from China to other parts of the world is wishful thinking. Companies including US ops have invested billions in China , so it is what it is.
IG Farben had an incredibly low cost of labor too.
 

Kevin_W

Well-Known Member
I followed them for the first year and found them to be completely unreliable. There’s a reason why all media started ignoring them. The most accurate model has been the university of Florida’s.
I agree - I stopped looking at them long ago. They were pretty bad in the first year.
 

Tom P.

Well-Known Member
I'm not sure what you mean here?

These are both the CDC defined metrics. One they've been using for months (and still are for health care facilities) and one that's been around for the last couple of months (maybe less, time is hard to judge these days).

If the question is how did they determine the cut offs between each level? I've got no idea, they could have pulled them out of thin air. Presumably if they did just make them up out of thin air, it was done by people with the knowledge and expertise to make that kind of determination. I would assume a little more went into it though, with some work done based on impacts and goals.

Comparing the two, you can judge them on how they work differently compared to each other. Not so much on how those cut offs work in an absolute sense.

CDC Landing Page:

There's links at the top to both, with more links and links and then even more describing both of them.
But the CDC changed metrics for a reason. The idea was that in the early days of the pandemic, when there were no vaccines and no effective therapeutics, it made sense to judge risk based solely on transmission levels in a community. But now that folks can get vaccinated if they choose and we have decent therapeutics as well, people have the tools to protect themselves from severe outcomes. So "how likely are you to be exposed to Covid" is no longer considered the appropriate metric. It's "how often are people in a community having serious problems because of Covid." And I think that makes sense.
 

GuyFawkes

Active Member
But the CDC changed metrics for a reason. The idea was that in the early days of the pandemic, when there were no vaccines and no effective therapeutics, it made sense to judge risk based solely on transmission levels in a community. But now that folks can get vaccinated if they choose and we have decent therapeutics as well, people have the tools to protect themselves from severe outcomes. So "how likely are you to be exposed to Covid" is no longer considered the appropriate metric. It's "how often are people in a community having serious problems because of Covid." And I think that makes sense.
The same people who would die of Covid, will still of Covid now. The only difference is we are over stopping the world to try to save the weak. I don't mean that in a vicious way but many of the population are weak body wise. The slightest thing will kill them.

Whatever, sure we stopped the surge that would have overwhelmed hospitals saving huge amounts of life. Deaths by suicide, violence, drug OD's, alcohol abuse etc. those don't matter. The fact that all those numbers went up hugely has no correlation to the Covid lock downs. Sure it doesn't. Sure this won't have effects on society going forward for years to come.....

My parents are in their 80's and you can ask them. The Covid vaccine doesn't do much for the over 80 crowd, they still die quickly from Covid or for that matter anything. My parents were so pro vaccine and everything else because they thought that would solve everything. Their friends started dying after 3 Covid shots and have now given up on everything. They have gone back to living a normal life. They are out doing a cruise right now and they are traveling the world. They simply don't care about Covid an more. Their choices are, don't come out in public and drop dead of old age or go live life to it's fullest and drop dead of old age.

Who are you actually saving and from what????
 
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