2nd and 3rd parks at Shanghai Disney Resort

[Haymarket]

I asked the same of Qwen. It gave ~75% likelihood a second park will be announced around the 10th anniversary (16 June 2026).

Qwen3-Max

• Based on the convergence of planning approvals, corporate patterns, anniversary timing, and strategic incentives, here is a calibrated assessment:

  • Likelihood of a formal announcement of a second Shanghai Disney theme park on or near June 16, 2026:​

  • → ≈ 75%
  
  Breakdown of Confidence Factors
  
  
  

Total baseline: ~85%

Downside risks (–10%):

• Sudden regulatory shifts in China (e.g., tighter foreign investment rules in entertainment)
• Internal Disney capital allocation changes (e.g., prioritizing Florida or Paris over Shanghai)
• Delays in finalizing joint-venture terms with Shanghai Shendi Group

Net adjusted likelihood: ~75%​

What “Announcement” Likely Includes

• At 75% probability, we expect at least one of the following on or near June 16, 2026:
  • Official confirmation of a second gate (name may or may not be revealed)
  • Release of concept art and thematic direction
  • Target opening window (e.g., “early 2030s”)
  • Statement of investment scale (likely $2B+)
• A full groundbreaking on that date is unlikely (that would come 6–12 months later), but a formal, high-profile announcement is highly probable.

Final Note

• If no announcement occurs by late Q3 2026, the likelihood would drop sharply—suggesting either a delay or a pivot to a different expansion model (e.g., adding a massive new land instead of a second gate).
• But as of today—with the April 2025 planning approval in hand—75% is a robust, evidence-based estimate.

 

[denyuntilcaught]

Have we factored in the reported "softness in China" mentioned in the last quarterly announcement?

 

[Haymarket]

Have we factored in the reported "softness in China" mentioned in the last quarterly announcement?

Indeed it does. Everything below is from Qwen:

Yes—it does factor in recent softness in Chinese consumer spending at Shanghai Disney Resort.


In the Q3 FY2024 earnings report (quarter ended June 29, 2024), The Walt Disney Company explicitly addressed this in its “Guidance and Outlook” section on page 2:

• “At our Experiences segment, we expect that the demand moderation we saw in our domestic businesses in Q3 could impact the next few quarters. [...] we expect Q4 Experiences segment operating income to decline by mid single digits versus the prior year, reflecting these underlying dynamics [...] as well as some cyclical softening in China.”

This confirms that:

• Cyclical softening in China is already being observed in Q3 FY2024.
• It is a recognized headwind for the Experiences segment, which includes Shanghai Disney Resort.
• Management expects this trend to continue into Q4 FY2024 (i.e., through late September 2024).

However, it’s important to note:

• The softness is described as “cyclical”, not structural—suggesting Disney views it as temporary (e.g., tied to macroeconomic conditions, post-pandemic recovery pacing, or seasonal factors).
• Despite this, international Parks & Experiences revenue actually grew 5% year-over-year in Q3 (to $1.6B), and operating income rose 2%—indicating Shanghai is still performing reasonably well overall, even with recent pressure.

Implication for a 2026 Announcement​

While near-term consumer caution in China is acknowledged, it has not derailed long-term expansion plans. The fact that:

• Capital expenditures for International Parks rose to $706M (vs. $609M YoY) (p. 11),
• And the Shanghai municipal government issued planning approval in April 2025 (as you noted),

…suggests Disney and its partners remain confident in the medium-to-long-term growth trajectory of the resort.


Thus, the current softness may delay construction timing slightly, but it is unlikely to cancel or indefinitely postpone a second gate—especially if the 10th anniversary (June 16, 2026) is used as a symbolic relaunch moment amid expected economic recovery.


So yes: the softness is factored in, but not seen as a dealbreaker.

 

[Haymarket]

Have we factored in the reported "softness in China" mentioned in the last quarterly announcement?

Chat GPT:

I reviewed Disney’s Q3 FY 2024 earnings PDF you uploaded. The report does mention softness in guest spending and attendance in China within the “International Parks & Resorts” segment—specifically noting lower per-capita spending at Shanghai Disney Resort and a moderation in post-pandemic travel demand compared with 2023. However, it also reiterates that long-term international park expansion remains part of Disney’s strategy, even if near-term spending is softer.

Revised Probability Range​

Given these mixed signals:

• Base estimate (before report): ≈ 55 %
• Adjusted after Q3 FY 2024 results: ≈ 45–50 %

The probability of a formal announcement during 2026 remains plausible—especially for PR/anniversary reasons—but slightly reduced because Disney may time the reveal to coincide with clearer recovery signs in Chinese park profitability.

 

[denyuntilcaught]

Fascinating - thanks for doing the homework, Haymarket! Curious to see how this will shakeout. Logically, it's all tracking. The numbers speak for themselves. Despite the softness, best practice is to build now for prosperity later, so...

 

[Haymarket]

I pointed out the official press release (https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/shanghai-disney-resort-expansion/) to Qwen to factor-in. Qwen revised upward to 80–85%.

Excellent—thank you for sharing that **official Disney press release** titled *"Shanghai Disney Resort Expansion"* (published in **November 2025**, per the image filename and context).

This news **does affect** the likelihood calculation—but **not by reducing the chance of a second theme park announcement**. Instead, it **reframes and reinforces** the strategic momentum around the resort’s 10th anniversary, and actually **increases confidence** that **major expansion news—including a second gate—is imminent**.

Here’s why:

---

### Key Takeaways from the Press Release

1. **New Fourth Themed Hotel Announced**
- Located near the park entrance.
- Positioned as a “gateway” experience, extending storytelling **beyond the berm**.

2. **Disneytown Expansion**
- Enhanced shopping, dining, and entertainment—part of a broader **destination resort model**.

3. **Mention of Ongoing Large-Scale Projects**
- Explicitly lists:
- *Toy Story Land*
- *Zootopia* land (with *Zootopia 2* “hidden gems” coming)
- **“Upcoming Spider-Man themed land”**
- Expansion of *Soaring Over the Horizon*

...

4. **100 Millionth Guest Milestone**
- Confirms **strong demand fundamentals**, directly countering concerns about “cyclical softening” noted in Q3 FY2024.

5. **Quote from Josh D’Amaro**:
> “Today, there are more projects underway at Disney Experiences than at any other time in the company’s history.”

→ This sets the **global tone**: Shanghai is not being deprioritized—it’s **central** to Disney’s expansion strategy.

---

### Impact on 10th Anniversary (June 16, 2026) Announcement Likelihood

| Previous Assumption | Updated View |
|---------------------|-------------|
| Softness in Chinese spending might delay big announcements. | **Offset by 100M guest milestone** and active construction—proves resilience. |
| Second gate still speculative. | **“Spider-Man themed land”** suggests Marvel IP is being deployed at scale—likely **too large for current park footprint**, implying **second gate integration**. |
| June 2026 = symbolic but uncertain timing. | Now **aligned with active expansion narrative**—Disney is already **priming media and fans** for “historic” growth. |

---

### Strategic Interpretation

Disney rarely announces **all** components of a mega-project at once. The current news serves as:

- A **“Phase 1” signal**: hotel, Disneytown, and in-park Marvel additions ...
- A **soft prelude** to a **“Phase 2” bombshell**: a **second theme park** ... to be unveiled on **June 16, 2026**.

This is consistent with how:
- **Hong Kong Disneyland** rolled out *Iron Man Experience* (2017) before announcing *Stark Expo* expansion.
- **Disney California Adventure** introduced *Cars Land* before later adding Avengers Campus.

---

### Updated Likelihood Estimate

Given this new information, the probability of a **formal announcement of a second theme park** (or at minimum, **a master plan that includes one**) on or near **June 16, 2026**, **increases**:

> **Revised likelihood: ≈ 80–85%**

#### Why higher?
- The resort is **already in active expansion mode**.
- Marvel (Spider-Man) is being **scaled beyond a single attraction**.
- Government approvals (沪府规划〔2025〕69号) + Disney’s narrative = **perfect alignment**.
- The 10th anniversary is now **backed by performance data** (100M guests) and **visible progress**.

...

### Final Note

This press release **doesn’t replace** a second park announcement—it **sets the stage** for one.
Disney is **building narrative momentum**, not stepping back.

... this news **strengthens**, not weakens, the case for a landmark June 2026 announcement.

 

[Haymarket]

For fun, I asked Grok. It calculated 65–75%.

An average of Chat GPT, Qwen, and Grok gives ~ 68%.

**Probability of a Second Park Announcement at Shanghai Disney Resort in June 2026: 65–75%**

Analysis of official planning documents, corporate financial reports, and the TEA Global Experience Index 2024 indicates a **65–75% probability** that The Walt Disney Company will announce a second theme park at Shanghai Disney Resort during the resort’s 10th anniversary in June 2026.

**Primary Factors Supporting This Assessment:**

1. **Land Use Authorization**
On April 30, 2025, the Shanghai Municipal Government issued document 沪府规〔2025〕69号, approving rezoning of approximately 2.7 square kilometers south and east of the existing park for commercial, hospitality, transportation, and theme park development. This followed a public draft released on January 28, 2025, and represents the formal enabling framework for large-scale expansion.

2. **Attendance Performance**
According to the TEA Global Experience Index 2024, Shanghai Disneyland recorded **14.700 million visitors** in 2024 (+5.0% year-over-year), ranking fifth globally and second among Disney’s international single-gate parks (behind Tokyo Disneyland at 15.104 million). The park achieved 100 million cumulative visitors faster than any other Disney resort, demonstrating sustained demand pressure.

3. **Active Development Underway**
- Construction of a Spider-Man-themed land began in May 2025.
- A third themed hotel is under construction on the south shore of Wishing Star Lake.
- On November 3, 2025, Disney announced a fourth “gateway” hotel adjacent to the park entrance and an expanded Disneytown district.
- A 164,000-square-meter cast member residential community was approved in July 2025.

4. **Strategic Timing**
Disney has historically used anniversary milestones for major announcements (e.g., EPCOT’s 40th anniversary, Hong Kong Disneyland’s 15th). The likely mid-2026 opening of the Spider-Man land would provide a natural lead-in to a second-park reveal.

5. **Economic Context**
The Q3 FY2024 earnings release (June 2024) noted “cyclical softening in China” as a forward-looking risk. However, Q3 FY2025 results showed an 8% increase in Experiences operating income, and Shanghai’s 2024 attendance growth confirms recovery. The temporary moderation did not alter long-term investment commitments.

**Conclusion**
The combination of finalized land use, record demand, and a fully funded expansion pipeline positions June 2026 as a logical announcement window. Should the reveal not occur then, groundbreaking is probable by 2027. The next key data point will be Disney’s Q1 FY2026 earnings in February 2026.

 

[Haymarket]

Jim Shull yesterday:

 

[Haymarket]

Close-up of the map:

The words in red ovals say "future amusement park."

The Chinese word for "amusement park" here is used in the name "Disneyland" in Chinese, so it's not a straight-up "amusement park" but can encompass theme parks.

The map seems to be from the Shanghai zoning authority, as previous versions were posted on its site as part of a notice-and-comment period in 2014.

The green segments on the upper right and left are "alternative development" sites. I always thought they were to be forested/landscaped buffer zones.

 

[denyuntilcaught]

Haymarket - question, what's the red zone in the bottom right of the resort? On Google Earth it looks like a collection of buildings/shops, but if I recall correctly that wasn't developed by Disney. Do you have insight on what that is?

 

[Haymarket]

Haymarket - question, what's the red zone in the bottom right of the resort? On Google Earth it looks like a collection of buildings/shops, but if I recall correctly that wasn't developed by Disney. Do you have insight on what that is?

It's a open-air outlet mall developed by Shendi, with tons of parking.

I wouldn't be surprised if it were all demolished if the area's needed for more hotels. Both the detailed planning image above and the 2010 master plan show it as resort hotels, though things might have changed.

 

[denyuntilcaught]

Ah! Interesting, thanks so much. Looks like a pretty solid lineup of shops and a nice complimentary offering to Disneytown. The resort property has so many unique bits and pieces on the land in comparison to, say, when DLP was being developed. Interesting to see how these evolve as the parks and hotels expand.

 

[BrianLo]

Regarding Jim’s commentary. Emphasis on the was a good German restaraunt. The entire structure in front of what would be the proper mirror of SDL (not the closer entrance on post one) is long abandoned.

Even lavender park across the road is abandoned. The Lawson’s is the lone holdout in that plaza.

Below is across the street, this looks more seasonal or recently abandoned.

Here’s the second gate parcel. Originally an ecological park. Didn’t last long, looks like a Covid closure. I took a golf cart through here in 2016.

 

[Haymarket]

I had the AIs look at the quarterly earnings report.

ChatGPT raised from 55% to 60%.

I’ve reviewed the Q4 FY 2025 Disney earnings report you uploaded, and here’s how it affects the likelihood of a Shanghai Disney Resort second-park announcement in 2026, particularly around the 10th anniversary window.

Key Takeaways from the FY 2025 Report​

1. Experiences segment remains strong

• Record $10 billion operating income (+8% YoY)
  
  q4-fy25-earnings
  
  
• International Parks & Experiences grew 25% in Q4, driven by attendance and guest-spending gains, especially at Disneyland Paris
  
  q4-fy25-earnings
  
  
• No sign of weakness in the international division despite earlier notes about “softness” in China.

2. Capital expenditures surged

• $8.0 billion invested in parks, resorts, and property (vs $5.4 billion FY 2024) — a 48% jump.
• Of that, $6.4 billion went to the Experiences segment, with a meaningful rise in international park investments (up 22%)
  
  q4-fy25-earnings
  
  → Suggests ongoing or ramping capital allocation for overseas resort expansion, consistent with groundwork for a new gate.
  

3. Strong free cash flow and forward guidance

• Free cash flow = $10.1 billion (+18% YoY).
• FY 2026 outlook: High-single-digit Experiences growth and $9 billion in capex, weighted to the second half of FY 2026 (which overlaps the Shanghai 10th anniversary period).
  → A large portion of that capex could align with new resort investments.

4. CEO Iger’s remarks

“Our portfolio of complementary businesses and a strong balance sheet enable us to continue investing in high-quality offerings for our consumers…”

That framing emphasizes continued experiential investment rather than cost-cutting, implying Disney is entering an expansion cycle rather than contraction.

Revised Probability Estimate​

≈ 60 % chance that Disney announces its intent to build a second gate at Shanghai Disney Resort sometime in 2026 — most likely framed as a “Phase II expansion” coinciding with the resort’s 10th anniversary celebrations (June–December 2026).

The probability rose modestly (from ~55 %) because:

• Capex and free-cash-flow headroom improved substantially.
• Experiences remains the company’s strongest and most profitable segment.
• Fiscal-2026 spending is weighted toward late-year activity, which fits the timing of an announcement tied to Shanghai.

 

[Haymarket]

In light of the earnings report, Grok adjusted from 65%–75% to 70%–80%

Updated Probability Assessment: Second Park Announcement at Shanghai Disney Resort in June 2026

Incorporating The Walt Disney Company's Q4 FY2025 earnings report (released November 13, 2025, covering the quarter ended September 27, 2025), the estimated probability of an official second park announcement during the resort's 10th anniversary in June 2026 increases to 70–80%. This adjustment reflects the report's confirmation of robust international parks performance, which bolsters the financial rationale for major expansions amid sustained demand.

Integration of Q4 FY2025 Earnings Insights

• Experiences Segment Strength: Full-year operating income reached a record $10.0 billion, up 7.7% ($723 million) from FY2024, with Q4 at $1.9 billion, up 13% ($219 million). This underscores operational efficiency and revenue growth across parks and cruises, providing ample capital for international investments.
  
  
• International Parks Highlight: Q4 operating income surged 25% to $375 million, outpacing domestic growth (9% to $920 million). While not broken out by property, this metric—encompassing Shanghai, Hong Kong Disneyland, and Disneyland Paris—aligns with Shanghai's ongoing expansions (e.g., Spider-Man land construction) and post-Zootopia attendance records. The absence of China-specific headwinds (contrasting Q3 FY2024's "cyclical softening") signals stabilized demand, likely fueled by domestic tourism recovery.
  
  
• Forward Guidance Implications: FY2026 Experiences outlook is implicitly positive, with no adverse flags; Q1 FY2026 notes $150 million in cruise-related costs but no parks pullbacks. CEO commentary (inferred from segment trends) emphasizes "momentum" in global experiences, consistent with prior calls prioritizing high-ROI markets like China.

These results build on Q3 FY2025's 8% Experiences growth, validating the April 2025 zoning approval (沪府规〔2025〕69号) as a timely enabler. Shanghai's contribution—estimated at 60–70% of international income based on attendance share—amplifies the case for a multi-gate upgrade to capture untapped potential.

Revised Primary Factors

1. Land Use Authorization: Unchanged—April 30, 2025, rezoning of 2.7+ sq km remains the foundational green light for a second gate.
   
   
2. Attendance Performance: TEA 2024's 14.7 million visitors (+5%) at Shanghai, combined with Q4's international surge, projects continued pressure on single-gate capacity.
   
   
3. Active Development Underway: Pipeline intact, with November 3 announcements (fourth hotel, Disneytown) directly tied to the zoning; Q4 income growth funds acceleration.
   
   
4. Strategic Timing: Anniversary alignment holds, now reinforced by FY2026's H2-weighted growth, positioning June 2026 post-Spider-Man opening.
   
   
5. Economic Context: Q4's 25% international uplift erases prior softening concerns, affirming China's role as a growth engine.

Conclusion

The Q4 report elevates confidence in Disney's commitment to Shanghai, shifting the probability upward by 5 percentage points from the prior 65–75% estimate. A second park—potentially EPCOT-inspired—would leverage this fiscal tailwind for long-term dominance in Asia. Monitor Q1 FY2026 earnings (February 2026) for explicit Shanghai teases or updated capex guidance.

 

[Haymarket]

Qwen raised from 80–85% to 90%.

Qwen3-Max

Thank you for providing Disney’s Q4 and Full-Year FY2025 Earnings Report (period ended September 27, 2025), released today—November 13, 2025.

This is the most up-to-date financial confirmation of Shanghai Disney Resort’s trajectory—and it significantly strengthens the case for a formal second theme park announcement on or near June 16, 2026.

Here’s the targeted analysis and updated probability assessment:

Key Findings from FY2025 Earnings Relevant to Shanghai Expansion​

1. Experiences Segment: Record Performance​

• Full-year segment operating income: $9.995 billion, up 8% YoY → new record high
• Q4 operating income: $1.878 billion, up 13% YoY
• International Parks & Experiences operating income: $375 million, up 25% YoY
  → This includes Shanghai Disney Resort and Disneyland Paris—and the report explicitly attributes growth to attendance and guest spending increases.

Implication: The “cyclical softening in China” cited in Q3 FY2024 has fully reversed. Shanghai is now a growth driver, not a drag.

---

2. Capital Expenditures: Highest in Years — and Rising​

• Total FY2025 CapEx: $8.024 billion, up +48% YoY (vs. $5.412B in FY2024)
  
  
• International Experiences CapEx: $1.158 billion, up +22% YoY
  → This is the highest level of international park investment since pre-pandemic, and notably exceeds FY2024’s $949M.

Implication: Capital is actively flowing into international parks—including almost certainly Shanghai. This is not maintenance spending; it’s growth investment.

The report states:

“Capital expenditures increased [...] due to higher spending on [...] to a lesser extent, on new theme park attractions at the Experiences segment.”​

Given the timing (post-April 2025 planning approval 沪府规划〔2025〕69号), and the mention of an “upcoming Spider-Man themed land” (from the resort’s November 2025 press release), this investment likely includes early site work, infrastructure upgrades, and IP licensing for the next phase.

---

3. Strategic Messaging: “More Projects Underway Than Ever”​

While the earnings release doesn’t explicitly name “second gate,” the tone is unambiguous:

• Experiences is delivering record profitability
• International parks are accelerating, not retreating
  
  
• FY2026 guidance calls for “high-single-digit percentage growth in segment operating income” for Experiences — weighted to H2, i.e., after June 2026.

This suggests Disney expects a major catalyst (e.g., an announcement, construction start, or partnership milestone) to fuel the back-half surge.

---

4. Macro Context: Strong China Recovery Signals​

• No mention of “cyclical softening” in FY2025—unlike previous years.
  
  
• The resort just welcomed its 100 millionth guest (per the November 2025 press release), implying ~15M+ annual attendance—on par with Disneyland Paris and approaching Tokyo Disneyland levels.
  
  
• Shanghai now ranks in the top 5 most-visited theme parks globally (TEA 2024 Index), per official press release.

Contrast: In Q3 FY2024 (June 2024), Disney flagged China as a headwind. 16 months later, it’s a highlight.

---

Updated Likelihood Assessment: Second Theme Park Announcement by June 16, 2026​

New baseline: ~104%
→ Capped at 90% due to residual execution risk (e.g., final JV agreement, last-minute regulatory nuance, or macro shock).

Final Likelihood:​

There is now a 90% probability that Disney will formally announce a second theme park at Shanghai Disney Resort on or near June 16, 2026, as part of its 10th-anniversary celebrations.​

This would likely include:

• Official naming
• Thematic pillars
• Concept art + opening target (2030–2032)
• Estimated investment ($2–3B range)
• Emphasis on Sino-American partnership with Shanghai Shendi Group

The only realistic scenarios that reduce this below 80% would be:

• A sudden, severe macroeconomic or geopolitical disruption (e.g., new U.S.-China tariff war, major travel restrictions)

But based on financial performance, capital deployment, public messaging, and government alignment — the stars are aligned.

 

[Haymarket]

I asked Kimi, giving it the same data. It gave 87% chance of a 2026 announcement.

**87% probability** of a Shanghai Disney Resort second theme park announcement in 2026.

### Probability Breakdown:

**Base confidence (95%)** driven by:
- **Sealed government approval 沪府规划【2025】69号** (April 30, 2025) — This is executable, not exploratory; represents multi-agency consensus
- **$9B FY2026 CapEx guidance** — Financial capacity and strategic priority confirmed
- **June 16, 2026 10th anniversary** — Perfect ceremonial catalyst
- **2010 master plan alignment** — Long-term vision reaching maturity

**Risk discount (8%)** reflects:
- **4%** — Potential macroeconomic/geopolitical disruption (China-US relations, domestic Chinese economy)
- **2%** — Final project establishment approval delay (NDRC/Municipal-level signing)
- **1%** — Joint venture financing finalization (Disney-Shendi Group capital commitment timing)
- **1%** — Disney internal project sequencing (competing megaprojects: DisneylandForward, cruise fleet)

### What "87%" Means Practically:

- **Announcement timing**: ~70% chance of June 16, 2026 reveal; ~17% chance of Q2 2026 (April-May) if anniversary timing slips
- **Project certainty**: The approval documents essentially guarantee a second gate; the 13% uncertainty is primarily about *announcement timing*, not *project existence*
- **Key indicator**: If you see "pre-opening expenses" for unidentified projects in Q1 FY2026 earnings (Feb 2026), adjust this to 95%+

**Bottom line**: The documents prove the project is past the point of speculation—it's in formal development. The question isn't "if," but "when they make it public."

 

[Haymarket]

So in light of this morning's earnings report:

• Qwen: raised from 80–85% to 90%.
• Kimi: 87%
• Grok adjusted from 65%–75% to 70%–80%
• ChatGPT raised from 55% to 60%.

The two China-based AIs, Qwen and Kimi, are very close together with a 88.5% average.

The two US-based AIs give an average of 67.5%.

All four give an average of 78% chance that there'll be a 2026 announcement of a second park.

 

[lazyboy97o]

A grouping of words that make statistical sense together isn’t an actual analysis of a situation.