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I'm not surprised at the fact it was named, but I am a bit surprised that it was not named sooner (5PM Yesterday) from the data that I was looking at in the south-east quadrant, but that's a moot point. I do not have currently confidence in the current forecast path, and think we will see an...

000 WTUS82 KMLB 241502 TCVMLB URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Helene Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 5 National Weather Service Melbourne FL AL092024 1102 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 FLZ053-242230- /O.CON.KMLB.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ Osceola- 1102 AM EDT Tue Sep...

I saw it on my RSS feed.

062 WTNT34 KNHC 241458 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR...

Helene has been named. Stand by for the advisory.

You will be fine.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/aboutnames_pronounce_atlc.pdf

It's actually Hurricane Hunter recon data ;)

We are finally getting a lot of the much needed data to help with the forecasting today. Gonzo and a WC-130J did a lot of synoptic surveillance this morning. We have two additional flights into the system underway, a WC-130J and Mrs. Piggy. NHC has heh-LEEN

Now do I write it as Helene or use the pronunciation guide and do it phonetically: heh-LEEN.

I updated the title for now, and will reupdate it when the storm is officially named.

This is the full 5-day 06z model run: This is an 12z early run (Forecasts from the previous run that are shifted by 6 hours with a position and intensity matching the storm's current attributes.)

I would like to take a moment to chime in to this. For those coming in, my best advice is to watch as things develop and to make your own informed choice on what you want to do. That being said, in terms of wild predictions that are speculative, I also very much do detest them and will fight to...

000 WTNT34 KNHC 240858 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900...

Consensus is a Cat 3+. That all being said, the data that I am looking at had no bearing to the 5PM EDT advisory. It will be taken in consideration for 11PM or 8PM if they do a track update then.

We are slowly starting to get new model runs in. The ICON model has shifted about 75 miles eastward, and has 72 hours out the center of the storm roughly 45 miles from Tampa to the West South West. The NAM model is more westward, but is total garbage, and would have it at 989mb, or a Cat 1 with...

000 WTNT34 KNHC 232052 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE...

If anyone can get a good view of the LEDs on the light itself, I could tell you to a very good degree the color :)

An emergency declaration helps state agencies prepare for storm response.