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  1. M

    A sequel? Nah, not this one

    Actually Disney isn't that big or that vital to any national interest worthy of a bailout or even concern. Comcast is actually much bigger. All of the Disney business units have competitors that would step in and fill any gap left behind. Except for nostalgia, a Disney that shrinks or even...
  2. M

    A sequel? Nah, not this one

    Maybe and maybe not. The life expectancy of a fortune 500 company is something like 40 years. Look at the companies that made up the DOW index 100 years ago verses now. You probably won't recognize them. Go back 50 years and look. A once great company like General Electric is not a sure bet to...
  3. M

    A sequel? Nah, not this one

    I have never experienced that, but in 2019 we probably visited EPCOT 4 times. I noticed starting around 4:00PM the Drinkerbells and Mary Poppincorks began showing up in mass. EPCOT became a pub crawl which is fine but for us it seemed to demean the place. We usually made our way out around 5:00...
  4. M

    Walt Disney World Park Hours cut starting September 8 2020

    If you don't live in Florida I can tell you honestly you don't know the truth.
  5. M

    Walt Disney World Park Hours cut starting September 8 2020

    I think you are right on point here. Disney at the top expected people to be waiting in line to visit the parks. They admitted they were surprised at the low turnout. I think they will be surprised when demand does not return quickly. They may be surprised when the movies don't do as well when...
  6. M

    Disney's FY20 Q3 Earnings (8/4/20)

    Some thoughts on this discussion: I doubt Disney will sell assets due to this financial crisis alone or that they are forced to sell to stay afloat. They will sell assets when Bob Chapek (not RealBobChapek, but the real Bob Chapek) lays out his vision for where he wants to take the company...
  7. M

    On layoffs, very bad attendance, and Iger's legacy being one of disgrace

    I don't see any accounting tricks. What I see is a major delay in paying people and a real effort to collect what was due. I also saw debt pushed out. The current portion of debt went from $12B down to $10B, so $2B went into the future. It looks like a really alert and fast acting financial...
  8. M

    On layoffs, very bad attendance, and Iger's legacy being one of disgrace

    I thought Disney did very well managing the Q3. Here is what I heard and saw in the numbers and what it means: ESPN didn't pay anyone yet. NBA and MLB have to play to get the pay. Disney kept the revenue and didn't pay it out. MLB and NBA are in the area of $3B I believe. This means ESPN will...
  9. M

    On layoffs, very bad attendance, and Iger's legacy being one of disgrace

    Simple is good and your reply was appreciated.
  10. M

    On layoffs, very bad attendance, and Iger's legacy being one of disgrace

    What does "Net Positive" mean? Didn't they say variable revenue exceeded variable cost, so the admissions pay the salaries, but the fixed costs still keep it in the negative? I think I got that right so how is it a net positive?
  11. M

    Spectator Guide to Disney's Q3 20 Financials

    In the history of Disney, this will be one of those historic financial quarters. This the equivalent of an 1880’s cargo sailing ship in a gale force storm. Leadership is critical and Disney will not emerge unscathed. So here are some things to watch for when they report. The first is Operating...
  12. M

    The Red Button Option

    I am usually wrong and probably am this time as well. I just get the feeling Bob Igor is imitating Bruce Willis in the movie the Six Sense. His legacy is dead and he just doesn't know it yet but many of us can see dead people.
  13. M

    The Red Button Option

    If I understand the bond funding correctly, and I am very open to being corrected, the first was for $5B and that went into the cash reserve. The other was for something like $11B and I think that went into moving debt from the current to the future. One went to ride this out, the other went to...
  14. M

    The Red Button Option

    It is enough for you or I :). But Disney is larger and it is the burn rate that makes it enough or not enough. If Q3 shows a burn of $1B per month and that burn rate isn't slowed by the end of September, $6B equals 6 months. Given the time it takes to create and execute plans, that is not a...
  15. M

    The Red Button Option

    In my opinion, the key point in all of this is the cash position of Disney. If Disney reports under $10B in cash at the end of June and the burn is such that $6B is left by the end of September, there is no discussion left except where is the exit. All financial reports boil down to this... the...
  16. M

    Cash-Strapped Disney

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/cdc-chief-says-northerners-heading-south-for-vacation-may-be-to-blame-for-surge-in-coronavirus-cases-not-state-reopenings.html
  17. M

    Cash-Strapped Disney

    I am not an expert, but from what I can see the $6B in March ended up in the cash reserve. If they don't end up needing it, there is no risk. It becomes a problem if they have to use it to fund operations. I think the $11B was to push current debt into the future. I might be making that up, but...
  18. M

    Cash-Strapped Disney

    Thank you! My numbers are certainly made-up to see where it might land. $9.2B in cash reserve sounds like a lot, but it is terrible and it doesn't keep them afloat for 3 more quarters. It cripples the ability to move forward with all of the projects on the table. The consensus EPS estimate is...
  19. M

    Cash-Strapped Disney

    Just as a silly game, I wanted to look at what Disney Q3 20 might look at to see what WDW PRO is talking about when he says they are cash strapped. I have no inside information so I am going to make numbers up just to see how bad things might be. When looking at financial reports, the key...
  20. M

    Cash-Strapped Disney

    MisterPenquin, Thank you for replying and you might be right. As for attendance, we might both be able to stake a claim to the truth. Here is a quote from Disney Annual Report filed for fiscal year 2019 ending September 29, 2019 (page 42). Revenues "The increase in theme park admissions...
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