Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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disneygeek90

Well-Known Member
Yes. This is exactly what should happen. Trying to listen to both sides I’m hearing one side say that we can’t remove restrictions and return to normal unless cases come way down to a reasonable level. The other side is saying what‘s the point of getting vaccinated if we need to continue to act mostly the same after getting it. They claim if we were told we could drop all covid restrictions once vaccinated mostly everyone would get the vaccine. I think the perfect compromise is to set a finite goal of reaching a percent vaccinated. As long as you pick a vaccination rate that’s high enough you almost guarantee cases will be plenty low enough and the vaccine hesitant crowd can see a finite end to the restrictions if they just take the jab.

I would be careful to set a percent of the eligible population not total population unless you adjust down for the 25% of the population who are not eligible yet. So right now 93% of eligible people would need to be vaccinated to get to 70% of the population. That’s not going to happen any time soon or ever. A reasonable goal is probably 70% of the eligible population vaccinated. Once the 12-15 year olds amendment is approved 70% of eligible people is around 196M Americans. We are at 142M with at least 1 shot. 54M more people and probably 20M come from the 12-17 age group so likely 34M more adults. That’s very doable. That would also get us over 60% of the total population which is slightly higher than Israel is at today for 1 shot and we‘ve seen the great results there.

On timing if a firm goal is set and more hesitant people come in as well as kids 12-15 we have the capacity to blow though 54M new doses before the end of May. At the current pace it would likely take into June with 3-4 weeks for shot 2. Assuming the pace picks up again, by July 4th we could reach the 70% of eligible Americans fully vaccinated and lift all restrictions nationwide. The beauty of the plan is that how long we have to wait to get back to normal rests solely on the shoulders of those who aren’t vaccinated yet. Put your money where your mouth is and get the shots and we all get to throw away the masks and go back to normal. No excuses.
MLB had an agreement in place that if 85% of staff and players were vaxed they could loosen restrictions in clubhouses. To that effect, many teams have already reached that benchmark. There was a concrete "reward" that I think is being lost on the general public at the moment.
 

mickeymiss

Well-Known Member
The messaging has been atrocious. Whether it's TV personalities like the esteemed attention hound Dr. Fauci, or political hacks like Walensky and her boss HHS Secretary Baccera, there is nothing but conflicting and politically motivated messaging. They can't even coordinate and come to numerical metric for "normal".

The vaccine is either effective or it's not. If it is effective then there should be quick move to return to normalcy. There is absolutely no reason to penalize the majority of the population at the expense of the few who won't or can't. You will never have complete acceptance getting vaccinated. You will also never completely eliminate the risk. Further, with supply now outpacing demand for vaccinations, it's no longer a valid excuse to keep restrictions to avoid "spread". Anyone who wants one can easily get one. Frankly, it's not my problem that you choose not get immunized.

But again the terrible messaging just wipes out any motivation of those on the fence to get the shot.
It doesn’t help that Fauci has been repeatedly expressing hesitance about whether the vaccine will cover variants and mutations. He was still suggesting we wear masks because vaccinated people might still spread it. That frustrated me because I want to protect my son who is too young to be vaccinated. I don’t want to be spreading it to him. It’s not zero risk for kids. That’s why I think some common sense precautions to protect children still carry a benefit until we see results from the vaccine. This summer shouldn’t be like last summer though. We can compromise on a lot more now that most people will be vaccinated. Nobody needs to be wearing masks on beaches or at parks. I encourage it for Disney because it is crowded and trying to micro manage an indoor only rule is too confusing.
 

ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
That’s an unrealistic goal. 93% of people eligible today would need to be vaccinated to reach 70% of the population. That’s not going to happen, ever. Israel right now is seeing their cases essentially approach zero with 55% of their population fully vaccinated. If we want to look at total population then 55-60% is probably a realistic goal.
The percentage isn't the point of my post. The point is that they need to be clear about which percentage they want to reach.
 

ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
Yep agree on all points. Its the lack of a concrete message that is causing the difference in rules and regulations nationwide IMO. The director of the CDC and Biden need to have a joint State of the Union style presentation in primetime and lay out exactly what the path to normalcy looks like. Its been the lack of "good" communication for the past year from all the people in charge that is causing some people hesitancy.
I'd love for them to do that. But I don't think for a hot second it would change the mindset of some of those in charge in certain states.
 

sullyinMT

Well-Known Member
Doesn't the EO in Florida prevent exactly that?
Sure does. But, just like FL uses state funds to “enforce” the EO, see how quickly they and other similar states that are trying this approach buckle if the feds similarly withhold funds for not participating in a national database.

Frankly, I think it’s stupid there already wasn’t a national vaccine registry of some sort so that people aren’t constantly asking for their medical records for different things.
 

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
There's a lot more green boxes in the vaccinated column. The mask may be the same in most, but the risk profile is not the same.


Yes.

Worse yet, if not enough do, having a large pool of circulating virus in constant contact with vaccinated people is a recipe for long term disaster.

While I dislike that we appear not able to reduce spread enough because of vaccine holdouts that we may require passports, I'm starting to think it may be the only way. I think the implementation is going to be full of peril and conflict, and will still leave us wide open to the problems of uncontrolled spread. But, it may be the only thing to convince enough people to vaccinate if the alternative is being excluded from large parts of society. :(
Vaccine passports really are the only way. People who are vaccinated want masks and social distancing to be gone yet the one way to do it they are against. Imagine going to Disney and not having to wear a mask cause they people allowed in are vaccinated.
 

mmascari

Well-Known Member
Guess it depends on how the movie theatre is seating people. Are they limiting attendance, is any party within 6 feet of another party or is it spaced out like a restaurant would be and people are eating meals? If that's the case in the theatre, then why not?
Packed in, every seat full. Spread the 15% of kids under 16 out so they're not next to each other. What's the point of only allowing vaccinated people to do something if you're going to impose the same restrictions you would on everyone. Have 130 people in the theater in normal seats not the lounge chairs. Eating popcorn, laughing, 20 kinds spread out across the room. After all, we asked everyone and they all said they were vaccinated. We should be fine, no mitigation needed at all. Those kids are counting on it, they're far enough from each other, but right on top of everyone else.

What percentage is acceptable for mitigating risk?

Using your analysis, we would never reach point of normalcy.
I'm going to assume you haven't read anything else I've posted, as that couldn't be farther from the truth. There is a huge difference between the current community spread going on now and low spread (not zero, but lower than today) where it effectively wouldn't matter. Sure, 650+ deaths a day is way better than 4,000, but it's not good under any definition of good. Lets see it somewhere under 150 and we can go nuts. I mean you're right, if we never get the impact below the levels of today, we're never getting back to normalcy, just learn to live with the extra death and long term impacts. Fortunately, we're still vaccinating, so it'll go down more than today. The question is just will it go far enough before the "not getting vaccinated" crowd sets the floor.

People in Illinois are reacting to two pieces of bad news: the rate of vaccinations has dropped more than 20% in the last two weeks and the CDC’s revised guidelines for vaccinated people are beyond disappointing - allowing pretty much what people are already doing.

The federal government doesn’t want to get involved in a national system of vaccine verification, but it may need to do so if the main thing preventing vaccinated people from dropping restrictions is that unvaccinated people could be lying.
Pretty much what people are already doing is spreading infections too.

The main thing preventing vaccinated people from dropping restrictions is the uncontrolled spread of infection in the community. The vaccine works best long term when it rarely needs to work, not as some barrier that should be tested everyday. I'm planning on the long term, not just next few months personally.
 

ABQ

Well-Known Member
It's not that I say so. It's that everything in front of our faces says they're lying. Including hundreds of other media outlets.
So wait, because the networks that say things you agree with make these claims, then it's valid and verified? That doesn't corroborate anything it just perpetuates it.
Just like Rogan, who I disagree with, is allowed to state his opinion on his podcast. Making him "answer for that" as someone said in this thread is ludicrous. He's not claiming to be the foremost authority in virology and has every right to say what he wants on his show just as you have every right to not heed his advice.
 
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monothingie

Proxy War 2024: Never Forget
Premium Member
Sure, 650+ deaths a day is way better than 4,000, but it's not good under any definition of good. Lets see it somewhere under 150 and we can go nuts.
youre GIF
 

LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
Making him "answer for that" as someone said in this thread is ludicrous. He's not claiming to be the foremost authority in virology and has every right to say what he wants on his show just as you have every right to not heed his advice.
I said he has a lot to answer for, and I stand by that. Anyone with such an influential platform has an obligation to use it responsibly. Whether they should or not, people will follow his advice, and he's been in the game long enough to know that. Yes, he has every right to say what he wants, and I acknowledge that, but the words we choose to utter can have serious real-life consequences, particularly when you enjoy as large and devoted a following as he does.
 

Flugell

Well-Known Member
Again a different perspective from over the pond. WDW is an American destination but in “normal” times it is also an international destination. Agreed at the moment, there are no official international visitors so they are not high up on anyones agenda but there are now discussions on how and when this will change. When we are allowed back in to the country it seems highly likely that vaccine passports for entry will be mandatory.😁
I would also hope that the same would be true for all major tourist sites. If we have spent a lot of money to stay at Disney, bought very expensive travel insurance, travelled many thousands of miles, jumped through every hoop required to enter your beautiful country I do not want to be put at even a SMALL risk by mixing with the unvaccinated (medical reasons exempt.) If vaccines are not able for certain ages then negative test would be acceptable every 72 or so hours.
This may appear selfish and as I’ve said before probably is but if people are arriving from anywhere in the world? I know vaccine passports aren’t a 100% guarantee of safety or even potentially vaccine compliance but would provide a greater degree of safety than relying on herd immunity, especially if children remain unvaccinated.
I want to be able to visit Disney too - with or without a mask but preferably with some guarantee of vaccination compliance!
 
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