Predictions for returns of Annual Passholders

[el_super]

The discount is artificial. Seems like you're hung up on it. Disney makes a ton off of APs because they are priced much higher than day passes and multi-day park hoppers. The lack of APs will be felt as Disney can't possibly fill up their spaces with very expensive day passes. Okay, if you want a full park, discount the day pass. That's where the discount should be at.

Disney is saying otherwise. Disney is saying that per cap spending goes up when APs aren't in the park. This is just the continuation of the same story from last last year: When SWGE opened, attendance was flat and revenue went WAY up. Disney has beem singing the praises of less is kore since then.

They may make a lot of money on APs, but they are betting they can make even more without them.

With digital tools and apps, they have the ability to offer ticketing products that dont have to fit into the molds of what they have traditionally offered. Every indication is that the reservation system is here to stay, and using that and the app, they could target discounts for certain parks or certain days and still limit park attendance in a way that generates more revenue.

So there is absolutely no reason to bring back the tired old AP system.

 

[PiratesMansion]

There are a ton of factors affecting reservations right now, some of which were/are controllable by Disney, some of which were/are not. But it's not something simple enough to blame on any one factor when there are multiple that are definitely having an effect:
-The past year has made many apprehensive of resuming normal activities
-Others, meanwhile, would go but don't want any part of the current restrictions
-Many have lost jobs and/or have less money than they did a year ago, and Disney's expensive
-Many attractions, entertainment offerings, restaurants, menus, etc. are changed or currently shuttered
-The loss of the AP program, and the fact that people used to getting in at a relative discount, many for an extended period of time, must now either pay full price or not go at all
-Bad messaging about whether or not out-of-staters can go
-Bad messaging about ticket demand and frustrations on the first day the tickets went on sale
-The general aversion people have to making reservations to go to theme parks (there were multiple parks in the Midwest that required reservations initially, like Kings Island and Silver Dollar City, but attendance stayed low. When they removed the reservation requirements, attendance skyrocketed).
-Undoubtedly some people who had been regular customers grew accustomed to not going to the parks and will have permanently shifted their spending/leisure habits.

With all of those things happening, it's not surprising that things haven't gone according to expectations (really, nothing in the last year has). That said, returning to normal takes time. It took months for WDW to get to a point where it was busy consistently. While WDW and DLR serve very different markets, etc., it would be foolish if TWDC really and truly thought that DLR would immediately sell out.

It's way too complicated a situation to fix just by reintroducing APs as soon as possible. And even if they wanted to do that, there's no point in doing so until the state relaxes its covid capacity restrictions.

In a way, it's also easier on DLR if the parks aren't super crazy from the get go. It gives them time to practice implementing these policies so that when they are more consistently busy, everything runs more smoothly.

If things stay bad for a longer period of time, then it makes more sense for them to hit the panic buttons.

 

[el_super]

With all of those things happening, it's not surprising that things haven't gone according to expectations (really, nothing in the last year has).

We are the ones suggesting the expectation was selling out instantly. That doesn't mean Disney had the same expectation.

From a purely guest service perspective, they have incentive to keep the attendance at a bare minimum for the first couple weeks/months while CMs adjust to new operating procedures.

Long term they gain by reinforcing that they are a premium brand requiring a premium price. I think the demand will start to increase once the trip reports, instagram photos and vloggers return.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I picked never because the AP programs as we knew them are most likely gone forever.

For my family of three, for the last 13 years or so purchased the platinum annual pass; no park reservations, no blackouts, free parking, go at a drop of a hat, whenever you want.

I don’t think we will see a AP like this one again, and if we do, it will be out of my price range..

 

[CaptinEO]

Disney is saying otherwise. Disney is saying that per cap spending goes up when APs aren't in the park. This is just the continuation of the same story from last last year: When SWGE opened, attendance was flat and revenue went WAY up. Disney has beem singing the praises of less is kore since then.

They may make a lot of money on APs, but they are betting they can make even more without them.

With digital tools and apps, they have the ability to offer ticketing products that dont have to fit into the molds of what they have traditionally offered. Every indication is that the reservation system is here to stay, and using that and the app, they could target discounts for certain parks or certain days and still limit park attendance in a way that generates more revenue.

So there is absolutely no reason to bring back the tired old AP system.

This. GE was a blessing in disguise it appears when crowds didnt show up.

It's a win win. Guests get a better themepark experience and the company makes a better profit. Much better than cramming people in and making the park miserable and guests bitter.

People need to understand the park doesnt have to be "packed" to reach its goals and that there is more than one way to make money.

 

[DanielBB8]

Disney is saying otherwise. Disney is saying that per cap spending goes up when APs aren't in the park. This is just the continuation of the same story from last last year: When SWGE opened, attendance was flat and revenue went WAY up. Disney has beem singing the praises of less is kore since then.

They may make a lot of money on APs, but they are betting they can make even more without them.

With digital tools and apps, they have the ability to offer ticketing products that dont have to fit into the molds of what they have traditionally offered. Every indication is that the reservation system is here to stay, and using that and the app, they could target discounts for certain parks or certain days and still limit park attendance in a way that generates more revenue.

So there is absolutely no reason to bring back the tired old AP system.

That's not precisely what they are saying. They are saying with reduced attendance, per person spending has gone up. It's not APs per se. They are getting more people who are willing and capable of spending more in the parks. Florida hasn't discontinued their APs because their Orlando parks have essentially reverted into a locals park with reduced foreign travellers.

It's an experiment to see if no AP works. They should try it, but it will soon revert back. The future is the Flex Pass where reservations are required even for APs due to limited capacity.

SWGE had flat attendance and revenue was up regardless due to price increases. So it was a lesson that SWGE didn't much help in driving up attendance and that $1 Billion was an unnecessary expense because Star Wars Land was botched.

If Disney wants a day tripper, they will get it. That's a one time attempt to generate income from one guest.

 

[mickEblu]

Would I be relatively safe? Sure. Do I want to navigate the social consequences of such an action? Do I want to assume that all the other parties around me are just as comfortable with my proximity as I am? Risk a really bad interaction with another guest or potentially a CM ejecting me from a lime for not following the rules?

All in order to ride Pirates of the Caribbean for the 145th time?

I might go, but it's not really a slam dunk decision for me.

You do what works for you. I just think life is too short and I’m done being home.

And yes of course to ride Pirates for the 145th time. What kind of question is that?

 

[George Lucas on a Bench]

How dare you!

 

[CaptinEO]

That's not precisely what they are saying. They are saying with reduced attendance, per person spending has gone up. It's not APs per se. They are getting more people who are willing and capable of spending more in the parks. Florida hasn't discontinued their APs because their Orlando parks have essentially reverted into a locals park with reduced foreign travellers.

It's an experiment to see if no AP works. They should try it, but it will soon revert back. The future is the Flex Pass where reservations are required even for APs due to limited capacity.

SWGE had flat attendance and revenue was up regardless due to price increases. So it was a lesson that SWGE didn't much help in driving up attendance and that $1 Billion was an unnecessary expense because Star Wars Land was botched.

If Disney wants a day tripper, they will get it. That's a one time attempt to generate income from one guest.

Disney World Florida has stopped selling new APs for more than a year now. They are keeping the existing APs as renewals, but for how long?

 

[el_super]

That's not precisely what they are saying. They are saying with reduced attendance, per person spending has gone up. It's not APs per se. They are getting more people who are willing and capable of spending more in the parks.

This is still a bit of a misdirect because it avoids acknowledging that APs were still paying less per entry than other groups. Yes some AP holders were probably spending a lot of money, but the people who saved some money buying an AP over a 7 Day Park Hopper, will still come and spend money. But when combined with the AP holders that drove their per-admission cost to $30, rarely spent on food and drink, and cost more to service, they made the program as a whole untenable.

Disney had cited rising labor costs as cutting into revenues for several quarters in a row, so throwing more and more labor at the crowding issue wasn't helping them and was costing them in the long run. In order to reduce crowding they cut the cheapest per-entry option and that was the APs.

SWGE had flat attendance and revenue was up regardless due to price increases. So it was a lesson that SWGE didn't much help in driving up attendance and that $1 Billion was an unnecessary expense because Star Wars Land was botched.

If SWGE wasn't a success, they wouldn't be eliminating discounts today. SWGE gave them the option to get rid of discounted APs and they took it.

 

[chadwpalm]

I went to Disneyland Thanksgiving week of 2019 and GE was pretty packed. In fact, every time I've gone the land's busyness was proportional to the overall park's busyness. It wasn't just GE that was fairly empty that summer....it was all of DL.

 

[DanielBB8]

This is still a bit of a misdirect because it avoids acknowledging that APs were still paying less per entry than other groups. Yes some AP holders were probably spending a lot of money, but the people who saved some money buying an AP over a 7 Day Park Hopper, will still come and spend money. But when combined with the AP holders that drove their per-admission cost to $30, rarely spent on food and drink, and cost more to service, they made the program as a whole untenable.

Disney had cited rising labor costs as cutting into revenues for several quarters in a row, so throwing more and more labor at the crowding issue wasn't helping them and was costing them in the long run. In order to reduce crowding they cut the cheapest per-entry option and that was the APs.



If SWGE wasn't a success, they wouldn't be eliminating discounts today. SWGE gave them the option to get rid of discounted APs and they took it.

It’s the pandemic that FORCED them to eliminate the APs. They decided that they cannot be served with reduced capacity. I don’t know how you blamed SWGE.

When SWGE opened, all APs except for the highest and most expensive unlimited APs were blocked out. At this time, Disney also introduced the new Flex Pass an an alternative to the California AP and the more expensive Deluxe Pass. The Flex Pass required reservations and had no blockout dates compared to the Deluxe AP. It was more expensive than the California AP and cheaper than the Deluxe.

Everything you say about how APs spend money is speculation. There’s no way to really know. Just that spending is much higher when attendance declined, which is also due to increased prices for APs too. The Deluxe AP was already over $800. The Flex Pass was over $600. The California AP wasn’t even offered anymore. The California Select AP only offer M-Thur admissions and was a poor value despite costing $400.

Labor costs keep rising, but that where attendance needs to be maintained to allow the minimum workforce on any given day. This is quite predictable with APs.

The only thing that’s untenable is the extreme crowds. The limits of how many people you can pack in the park and allow on the rides. The opposite is today where designing for an ideal customer that is a small minority.

 

[fctiger]

Disney World Florida has stopped selling new APs for more than a year now. They are keeping the existing APs as renewals, but for how long?

Again, because they have a capacity limit in place. Once that is off, then my guess is they will sell APs again like before. And APs are still being sold in all the Asian parks and Paris. No one has suggested their APs are going anywhere.

 

[el_super]

It’s the pandemic that FORCED them to eliminate the APs. They decided that they cannot be served with reduced capacity. I don’t know how you blamed SWGE.

They stopped selling the So Cal APs long before the pandemic. They tested the new flex pass before the pandemic. They went through a major alignment of AP prices before the pandemic. The pandemic may have been good PR cover, but eliminating APs didnt come from nowhere.

Everything you say about how APs spend money is speculation. There’s no way to really know.

About the only thing here that isn't speculation is that Disney eliminated the AP program.

 

[DanielBB8]

They stopped selling the So Cal APs long before the pandemic. They tested the new flex pass before the pandemic. They went through a major alignment of AP prices before the pandemic. The pandemic may have been good PR cover, but eliminating APs didnt come from nowhere.



About the only thing here that isn't speculation is that Disney eliminated the AP program.

They didn’t stop selling the California APs before pandemic. They could still be renewed. They put it on pause. I know because I bought the California AP when it went back on sale in a previous pause. This was the pattern.

Yes, after the pandemic, the APs were eliminated.

 

[el_super]

They didn’t stop selling the California APs before pandemic. They could still be renewed.

Why did they pause them? Why not let the money keep flowing in?

 

[fctiger]

Why did they pause them? Why not let the money keep flowing in?

Because the point of the APs were that you can go any time you want as long as you weren't blocked out. And with the exception of the biggest days of the year where they had to shut down the parks, it was never an issue of showing up whenever you wanted. That was clearly going to be an issue going forward when they knew they may have to limit capacity or, as we saw, shut down the parks altogether.

 

[el_super]

That was clearly going to be an issue going forward when they knew they may have to limit capacity or, as we saw, shut down the parks altogether.

That doesn't really make sense. If they were worried about hitting capacity, why not stop selling all APs? Why only one?

 

[DanielBB8]

Why did they pause them? Why not let the money keep flowing in?

That doesn't really make sense. If they were worried about hitting capacity, why not stop selling all APs? Why only one?

Maybe look at these prices. The Flex Pass would cost the same price as the California AP. This is evidently the bottleneck and the sweet spot.

 

[el_super]

Maybe look at these prices. The Flex Pass would cost the same price as the California AP. This is evidently the bottleneck and the sweet spot.

Yeah but if the park hits capacity and has to close the gates, that impacts all APs (and all tickets sold really), not just one. So why place a limit on that specific pass? Why not keep selling them, and let the gate controls handle capacity issues?