Covid Vaccine Updates and General Discussion About Vaccines

[GoofGoof]

My boss got the first shot of Moderna and he had pretty intense flu like symptoms for several days after. I told him to look on the bright side, at least you know its working. It’s pretty random with some having minimal reaction after shot 1 and others having full blown side effects. I do wonder if it has anything to do with prior exposure to Covid. Maybe some of the people who have a bad reaction to the first shot already had asymptomatic Covid and so the first shot is acting like the second shot for them. I have no scientific evidence to support that, but it makes some sense that if the second shot generally has a larger reaction due to your immune system already recognizing the virus and ramping up faster, if you were already naturally exposed your first shot could have a similar reaction to most people’s second shot. Interesting theory from a “non-medical background” guy so take it with a grain of salt as just a maybe.

 

[Lilofan]

I have had both shots (Moderna) with no side effects. My friends were all over the map with side effects - some in the first shot and the second shot ranging from a headache to knocked them out for 2 days,.

Congratulations. My second Moderna shot is this upcoming Thursday. I hope I have the same luck as you. My neighbor received the second shot and both husband and wife had fever, chills, arm aches for two days following the second Moderna shot.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Weekly update:

1/24/21: 21,848,655 total, 18,502,131 first doses
1/31/21: 31,123,299 total, 25,201,143 first doses
2/7/21: 41,210,937 total, 31,579,100 first doses
2/14/21: 52,884,356 total, 38,292,270 first doses

11,673,419 doses in a week, 1.667 million doses per day (up from 10,087,638 doses in a week, 1.441 million doses per day)

6,713,170 new first doses, 0.959 million per day (up from 6,377,957 new first doses, 0.911 million per day)

It appears we are doing well at getting 2nd doses administered on time. We can expect the total doses per day to approach (at least) 2 million within 2 weeks due to this. Still not seeing the promised increase in 1st doses delivered having an impact on the number of first doses administered. But we’ve administered 75% of doses delivered. I doubt we can increase the rate of 1st doses administered until delivery increases more substantially. We have administered more doses this week than were delivered this week, as it is. And, yes, there are excess doses available being held back as 2nd doses, but it appears most states are unwilling to play fast and loose with those 2nd doses. This honestly makes sense. The week of 2/21, we will need 1 million 2nd doses every day. I don’t know how a state like West Virginia will do that. They will need more than 200k second doses over the next few weeks there. They have about 10k on hand. Yes, they’ll get more delivered, but 200k? They’ve only received 395k TOTAL so far, as it is. CT has more than twice the population of WV and we now receive 69k doses per week, so I imagine WV is only getting 30-35k/week? I can’t be the only one worried about this math.

 

[GoofGoof]

Weekly update:

1/24/21: 21,848,655 total, 18,502,131 first doses
1/31/21: 31,123,299 total, 25,201,143 first doses
2/7/21: 41,210,937 total, 31,579,100 first doses
2/14/21: 52,884,356 total, 38,292,270 first doses

11,673,419 doses in a week, 1.667 million doses per day (up from 10,087,638 doses in a week, 1.441 million doses per day)

6,713,170 new first doses, 0.959 million per day (up from 6,377,957 new first doses, 0.911 million per day)

It appears we are doing well at getting 2nd doses administered on time. We can expect the total doses per day to approach (at least) 2 million within 2 weeks due to this. Still not seeing the promised increase in 1st doses delivered having an impact on the number of first doses administered. But we’ve administered 75% of doses delivered. I doubt we can increase the rate of 1st doses administered until delivery increases more substantially. We have administered more doses this week than were delivered this week, as it is. And, yes, there are excess doses available being held back as 2nd doses, but it appears most states are unwilling to play fast and loose with those 2nd doses. This honestly makes sense. The week of 2/21, we will need 1 million 2nd doses every day.

Moderna is still waiting on final FDA approval of their plan to add more doses to each vial. Once that’s approved they said they will increase shipments by 50% from that change alone. That should help boost shots available in a few weeks if approved soon.

We are also only a few weeks away from JnJ approval now. They will need to ramp up production but that’s all 1 dose vaccinations so even if they only have 12M doses ready on day 1 and only ramp to 20-30M by the end of March that‘s still adding 5M+ additional doses a week.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Moderna is still waiting on final FDA approval of their plan to add more doses to each vial. Once that’s approved they said they will increase shipments by 50% from that change alone. That should help boost shots available in a few weeks if approved soon.

We are also only a few weeks away from JnJ approval now. They will need to ramp up production but that’s all 1 dose vaccinations so even if they only have 12M doses ready on day 1 and only ramp to 20-30M by the end of March that‘s still adding 5M+ additional doses a week.

How quickly can the FDA reasonably approve that? They want data showing that efficacy is not impacted by filling vials with 14 doses. It takes months to collect such data. Have they already started testing that? I hope so.

I‘m honestly expecting JnJ to end up being a 2-dose vaccine. I had a feeling that was the case when they first announced they were studying a 2-dose regimen “just in case.” I still expect that to end up being the case. Even Fauci mentioned that he expected a 2nd dose would pull efficacy up to Pfizer and Moderna levels. If that’s the case, they will certainly recommend 2 doses (and take comfort in knowing those who skip appt. #2 still have substantial protection).

 

[CastAStone]

The week of 2/21, we will need 1 million 2nd doses every day. I don’t know how a state like West Virginia will do that. They will need more than 200k second doses over the next few weeks there. They have about 10k on hand. Yes, they’ll get more delivered, but 200k? They’ve only received 395k TOTAL so far, as it is.

I am not worried at all. We are putting out 50% more vaccine per week than we were 4 weeks ago. As long as the number produced this week is always larger than the umber produced 4 weeks ago, there will always be enough 2nd doses. The real issue is that the number of 1st doses may actually decrease week on week once or twice until Pfizer and Moderna scale to the 25M dose/week run rate that they’ll need to hit by late March to hit their promises.

Plus, some large states like NY are still setting aside a 2nd dose for everyone who gets a first dose, which is why there is such a huge gap between doses manufactured and doses tracked as administered.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I am not worried at all. We are putting out 50% more vaccine per week than we were 4 weeks ago. As long as the number produced this week is always larger than the umber produced 4 weeks ago, there will always be enough 2nd doses. The real issue is that the number of 1st doses may actually decrease week on week once or twice until Pfizer and Moderna scale to the 25M dose/week run rate that they’ll need to hit by late March to hit their promises.

Plus, some large states like NY are still setting aside a 2nd dose for everyone who gets a first dose, which is why there is such a huge gap between doses manufactured and doses tracked as administered.

I hope you’re right. WV has been complaining for weeks that they don’t have enough doses. I don’t foresee the situation improving for them until at least March.

 

[chris p]

Congratulations. My second Moderna shot is this upcoming Thursday. I hope I have the same luck as you. My neighbor received the second shot and both husband and wife had fever, chills, arm aches for two days following the second Moderna shot.

I had same symptoms

 

[danlb_2000]

My boss got the first shot of Moderna and he had pretty intense flu like symptoms for several days after. I told him to look on the bright side, at least you know its working. It’s pretty random with some having minimal reaction after shot 1 and others having full blown side effects. I do wonder if it has anything to do with prior exposure to Covid. Maybe some of the people who have a bad reaction to the first shot already had asymptomatic Covid and so the first shot is acting like the second shot for them. I have no scientific evidence to support that, but it makes some sense that if the second shot generally has a larger reaction due to your immune system already recognizing the virus and ramping up faster, if you were already naturally exposed your first shot could have a similar reaction to most people’s second shot. Interesting theory from a “non-medical background” guy so take it with a grain of salt as just a maybe.

Have you heard to people have major reactions to both shots, or is it usually one or the other.

 

[CastAStone]

Have you heard to people have major reactions to both shots, or is it usually one or the other.

My wife had moderate reactions to both. Arm aches, headaches, general malaise.

 

[GoofGoof]

Have you heard to people have major reactions to both shots, or is it usually one or the other.

I know 2 people who had a more severe reaction to the first shot than the second. Everyone else who had 2 shots had a more severe 2nd reaction or had no severe reaction to either shot. I don’t know anyone personally who had severe reactions twice but it’s been reported elsewhere so it is happening.

 

[Seanual757]

I was able to get my 1st vaccine today the Moderna one. Next vaccine is 3/15 Advent health opened it up to high risk and essential folks. No issues with my shot it's been 3 hours since.

 

[correcaminos]

Have you heard to people have major reactions to both shots, or is it usually one or the other.

I have not heard 2 really bad reactions. Those who had bad first, minimal second. I know some who had only minor reactions both times like me. I know a few who had nothing or minimal 1st and not great second. Some like no reactions either time (like my inlaws) Everything in between but no two bad yet, but doesn't mean it doesn't happen or is impossible. Just not likely at all.

For me (Pfizer/BioNTech) first shot hurt after a few hours and was enough to wake me at night. Not enough to make me stop with life. 2nd one was same but came on faster. I am a woman in my 40s who deals with anxiety, so my temp can sometimes be 97 or goes up to low 98. I felt warm one day and was only 98 but I was super anxious about school changes for the family. I cannot attribute even a low temp to that. That was my 1st shot. 2nd I admit didn't even test temp because I was very active the next day. Both times it hurt 2 days but I could continue on including going to do work lifting heavy binders.

 

[CastAStone]

Bummer:

If you start talking about when the vaccine would be more widely available to the general population, I was hoping that that would be by the end of April, namely, have gone through all the priorities and now say, OK anyone can get it," Fauci said. "That was predicated on J&J, the Johnson product, having considerably more doses than now we know they're going to have."

Dr. Fauci shifts the timeline on when the general public will be able to get a vaccine | CNN

Dr. Anthony Fauci said vaccines will be available to the general public by about mid to late May or early June, he told CNN's Jim Sciutto on Tuesday.

www.cnn.com

 

[danlb_2000]

At 21:20 on this week’s “This Week in Virology” podcast, one of the members of the FDA Advisory Panel who made the recommendation on the EUAs talks about exactly why an EUA and not an approval for these vaccines, and what’s missing from a full approval. The TLDL is long term efficacy.

Episode name is “With vaccines, Offit is on it”. I think it’s worth the listen.

I just listened to this episode, a lot of really good information in there. I will definitly have to keep up with this podcast.

I liked what they had to say about the safety of the vaccines saying that you pretty much never see long term side effects from any vaccine show up after 6 weeks from getting the first dose.

 

[GoofGoof]

Bummer:

Dr. Fauci shifts the timeline on when the general public will be able to get a vaccine | CNN

Dr. Anthony Fauci said vaccines will be available to the general public by about mid to late May or early June, he told CNN's Jim Sciutto on Tuesday.

www.cnn.com

Something doesn‘t add up there. Unless he knows something about issues with Pfizer and Moderna as well that makes no sense. By the end of April there will be more than enough doses for anyone in the elderly and high risk categories from Pfizer and Moderna alone. There’s no reason the general public still won’t be eligible by the end of April if JnJ provided zero doses. I’m not sure what the game is there. Maybe an attempt to again slow play it so people don’t rush to get rid of masks and others restrictions or set the bar low so we can overachieve. I hope it’s not something wrong with Pfizer and Moderna that they just aren’t sharing with the public.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Something doesn‘t add up there. Unless he knows something about issues with Pfizer and Moderna as well that makes no sense. By the end of April there will be more than enough doses for anyone in the elderly and high risk categories from Pfizer and Moderna alone. There’s no reason the general public still won’t be eligible by the end of April if JnJ provided zero doses. I’m not sure what the game is there. Maybe an attempt to again slow play it so people don’t rush to get rid of masks and others restrictions or set the bar low so we can overachieve. I hope it’s not something wrong with Pfizer and Moderna that they just aren’t sharing with the public.

We’ve already seen that vaccines delivered do not immediately equal vaccines in arms. Doses delivered on 3/31 won’t go into arms until the 2nd half of April. And they learned that JnJ, as I had suggested, will be unable to deliver as quickly as had been suggested. Single digit millions at approval, 20 million total by 4/30, all 100 million in July.

Further, he is likely speaking toward all Americans—some states are not rolling out as quickly as others. It’s not nice to say, “healthy adults should be able to get appointments in May unless they live in Rhode Island.”

Next week’s delivery to states is 22% higher than this week, so that’s good.

 

[GoofGoof]

We’ve already seen that vaccines delivered do not immediately equal vaccines in arms. Doses delivered on 3/31 won’t go into arms until the 2nd half of April. And they learned that JnJ, as I had suggested, will be unable to deliver as quickly as had been suggested. Single digit millions at approval, 20 million total by 4/30, all 100 million in July.

Further, he is likely speaking toward all Americans—some states are not rolling out as quickly as others. It’s not nice to say, “healthy adults should be able to get appointments in May unless they live in Rhode Island.”

Next week’s delivery to states is 22% higher than this week, so that’s good.

It’s a shame if there is really a big setback. Fauci’s comments a few weeks ago was end of March to beginning of April to move on the the general public. Now moving that back to May or June is a real disappointment. That also means delays in getting either high risk or essential workers or both done. At least where I live they haven’t come close to finishing the elderly and high risk yet and essential workers go after that. If the general public was open in April I took that to mean those groups would be done or mostly done. Now it seems like they will be still waiting to finish up those groups into May or even June.

 

[CastAStone]

We’ve already seen that vaccines delivered do not immediately equal vaccines in arms. Doses delivered on 3/31 won’t go into arms until the 2nd half of April.

The expectation is that the gap between doses delivered and doses in arms will narrow moving forward, not expand, as NYS (and a few smaller states) are expected to stop hoarding second doses a month in advance, and possibly more importantly, we finally work through the remaining senior case facilities that have had doses set aside for 2 months now.

 

[GoofGoof]

The expectation is that the gap between doses delivered and doses in arms will narrow moving forward, not expand, as NYS (and a few smaller states) are expected to stop hoarding second doses a month in advance, and possibly more importantly, we finally work through the remaining senior case facilities that have had doses set aside for 2 months now.

In PA the hospitals held back a lot of 2nd doses out of fear the deliveries wouldn’t make it. It’s one of the reasons we are in the bottom 10 states for percent of doses used. That should be resolved as they finish up the last of the healthcare workers with their 2nd shots. I know that in my county they are using 100% of the first doses they receive within a week. They get the doses on a Tuesday or Wednesday and all of the appointments are scheduled before the end of the weekend. There isn’t a large warehouse sitting full of doses not being used. With JnJ I would expect those doses to all be used within a week or 2 of arrival at most. Should boost the percent used numbers even higher.