Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[MisterPenguin]

Update to the vaccine timeline outline in red (a new Phase 3 participant)...

Reading about the status of various vaccines have left me confused as to which vaccines are which and where they are in development and who's saying what about how far along they are. So, I made an outline...


Monderna/NIH

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -20C, and 2 doses)​

​

Warp Speed: $2.5B, for 100M doses​

​

Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people, enrollment completes in September​

​

Earliest according to CDC: “Vaccine B” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 1M doses by Oct, 10M by Nov, 15M by Dec.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: by the end of 2020.​

Biontech/Pfizer/Fosun

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -70C, and 2 doses)​

​

Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people​

​

Warp Speed: $1.9B for 100M doses (by Dec?)​

​

Earliest according to CDC: “Vaccine A” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 2M doses by end of Oct, 10-20M doses by Nov, 20-30M dosed by Dec.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Regulatory review in Oct. which could theoretically lead to early end of Phase 3.​

AstraZeneca/Oxford

​

Type: altered chimp adenovirus​

​

Warp Speed: $1.2B​

​

Phase 3: in progress, recently started​

​

Earliest according to CDC: Doses can be delivered by Oct.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Doses available by the end of 2020.​

Johnson & Johnson / Beth Israel

Type: altered adenovirus (the one they used for an Ebola vaccine) [1 dose, only refrigeration to store]​

​

Warp Speed: $456M (+$1B if proven successful for 100M doses)​

​

Phase 3: just started, but will use a much larger test group (60k people), could be done by the end of 2020​

​

Earliest according to CDC: Nothing from CDC yet about this vaccine.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Beginning of 2021. Plan to make a billion doses.​

Novavax

Type: sticking proteins on microscopic particles​

​

Warp Speed: $1.6B​

​

Phase 3: just started, could be done by the beginning of 2021​

​

Earliest according to CDC: Nothing from CDC yet about this vaccine.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Plan to make 100M doses by 1st Q of 2021.​

Phase 3:

Final phase of trials. A large number of people are given either the vaccine or placebo, double blind​

​

Wait to see if there are negative reactions to the vaccine. If there are, vaccine is scrubbed.​

​

Wait to see how much more the vaccinated group is protected compared to the placebo. To be effective, people should be at least 50% more protected.​

​

If early results show extraordinarily good results, then this Phase can end early, because it would be unethical to leave those who received the placebo to be unprotected by an effective vaccine – this is what leads to an “October vaccine,” which, is only a result of extraordinarily good results.​

​

An independent review board evaluates the effectiveness. The FDA will not approve (or, is not supposed to approve) a vaccine without the board's go-ahead.​

​

In addition to governmental approval (or "fast-tracking"), the manufacturers themselves can decide not to release the vaccine until what they consider are appropriate evaluations are made. And, in fact, have pledged to "follow the science" and not release the vaccine until large trials and the science show that it is both safe and effective.​

In short, as Dr. Fauci has said, an October vaccine is not impossible, just very unlikely.

 

[Club Cooloholic]

The imposition of quarantines by states has worked really well thus far? Then there are quite a few people that leave high restriction states with no intention of returning.

How they work or not is irrelevant to what will actually happen (a quarantine)
And is there a mass exodus happening in Vermont, which has had perhaps the strictest of regulations?
Are there really people ready to uproot their families and lives so they can visit WDW?

 

[GimpYancIent]

How they work or not is irrelevant to what will actually happen.
And is there a mass exodus happening in Vermont, which has had perhaps the strictest of regulations?

Vermont? I must admit I like the maple syrup.

 

[GimpYancIent]

Update to the vaccine timeline outline in red (a new Phase 3 participant)...

Reading about the status of various vaccines have left me confused as to which vaccines are which and where they are in development and who's saying what about how far along they are. So, I made an outline...


Monderna/NIH

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -20C, and 2 doses)​

​

Warp Speed: $2.5B, for 100M doses​

​

Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people, enrollment completes in September​

​

Earliest according to CDC: “Vaccine B” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 1M doses by Oct, 10M by Nov, 15M by Dec.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: by the end of 2020.​

Biontech/Pfizer/Fosun

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -70C, and 2 doses)​

​

Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people​

​

Warp Speed: $1.9B for 100M doses (by Dec?)​

​

Earliest according to CDC: “Vaccine A” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 2M doses by end of Oct, 10-20M doses by Nov, 20-30M dosed by Dec.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Regulatory review in Oct. which could theoretically lead to early end of Phase 3.​

AstraZeneca/Oxford

​

Type: altered chimp adenovirus​

​

Warp Speed: $1.2B​

​

Phase 3: in progress, recently started​

​

Earliest according to CDC: Doses can be delivered by Oct.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Doses available by the end of 2020.​

Johnson & Johnson / Beth Israel

Type: altered adenovirus (the one they used for an Ebola vaccine) [1 dose, only refrigeration to store]​

​

Warp Speed: $456M (+$1B if proven successful for 100M doses)​

​

Phase 3: just started, but will use a much larger test group (60k people), could be done by the end of 2020​

​

Earliest according to CDC: Nothing from CDC yet about this vaccine.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Beginning of 2021. Plan to make a billion doses.​

Novavax

Type: sticking proteins on microscopic particles​

​

Warp Speed: $1.6B​

​

Phase 3: just started, could be done by the beginning of 2021​

​

Earliest according to CDC: Nothing from CDC yet about this vaccine.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Plan to make 100M doses by 1st Q of 2021.​

Phase 3:

Final phase of trials. A large number of people are given either the vaccine or placebo, double blind​

​

Wait to see if there are negative reactions to the vaccine. If there are, vaccine is scrubbed.​

​

Wait to see how much more the vaccinated group is protected compared to the placebo. To be effective, people should be at least 50% more protected.​

​

If early results show extraordinarily good results, then this Phase can end early, because it would be unethical to leave those who received the placebo to be unprotected by an effective vaccine – this is what leads to an “October vaccine,” which, is only a result of extraordinarily good results.​

​

An independent review board evaluates the effectiveness. The FDA will not approve (or, is not supposed to approve) a vaccine without the board's go-ahead.​

​

In addition to governmental approval (or "fast-tracking"), the manufacturers themselves can decide not to release the vaccine until what they consider are appropriate evaluations are made. And, in fact, have pledged to "follow the science" and not release the vaccine until large trials and the science show that it is both safe and effective.​

In short, as Dr. Fauci has said, an October vaccine is not impossible, just very unlikely.

Hey! Disney brass should invite Dr. Fauci to WDW for a visit. I am sure the Dr. could use a mental refresh.

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out -

 

[Club Cooloholic]

Vermont? I must admit I like the maple syrup.

Yup, pretty good stuff, hard to leave that behind.
So where is the exodus happening?

 

[note2001]

I'm not avoiding a trip based on what is or isn't happening on Disney property, it's about what is taking place outside of it. Those parks and restaurants are going to have their fair share of locals that are going to partake in the FL free for all.

I agree.
My fall trip is in jeopardy now too, simply as I need to know how safe my family will be between getting off that plane and arriving at WDW.

I have no problem going straight to Disney, but can I count on the airport, the car rental, the gas stations and even that McDs to be safe?

It only takes one cough by an infected person who balks wearing the mask to cause problems for many.

 

[Jwink]

If you want an idea. Here in Ontario Canada since our cases have been rising they put restrictions back in place. Gatherings are limited to 10 indoors and 25 outdoors and restaurants and bars must close by 11 pm.

They won’t do that here. But the problem for tourist dependent states is that nobody will be coming due to no restrictions and the inevitable spike we are about to see. Opening too fast and too soon will be the last straw for our state’s economy

 

[GimpYancIent]

I agree.
My fall trip is in jeopardy now too, simply as I need to know how safe my family will be between getting off that plane and arriving at WDW.

I have no problem going straight to Disney, but can I count on the airport, the car rental, the gas stations and even that McDs to be safe?

It only takes one cough by an infected person who balks wearing the mask to cause problems for many.

Yep! Full confidence in WDW safety. With some precautions cars, gas stations, McD's etc. will be just fine. Ahhhhhh but those airports and aircraft! No. Planes have issues unless its your personal use aircraft.

 

[GimpYancIent]

Yup, pretty good stuff, hard to leave that behind.
So where is the exodus happening?

Oh the Peoples Republic of Cali for starters.

 

[Club Cooloholic]

Oh the Peoples Republic of Cali for starters.

Ah, you think that is the reason? Here I thought it was the fires and high cost of living.

 

[Miss Bella]

Oh the Peoples Republic of Cali for starters.

Four of my family members are moving out. Even my very liberal sister in law is bailing. I’m running out of reasons to visit other then the weather.

 

[SamusAranX]

I agree.
My fall trip is in jeopardy now too, simply as I need to know how safe my family will be between getting off that plane and arriving at WDW.

I have no problem going straight to Disney, but can I count on the airport, the car rental, the gas stations and even that McDs to be safe?

It only takes one cough by an infected person who balks wearing the mask to cause problems for many.

I see where you are coming from. When we go to Utah later this year, I’m not concerned about the airport and the airline (southwest). Unlike say, Walmart, they are not messing around. They’ve kicked people off planes for refusing to wear masks and I applaud it. Too bad if you paid for the flight, as Rick Astley said, you know the rules and so do I.

as far as other places; gas stations I don’t go in and use card prepay, and sanitize my hands and the card immediately after getting in the car. Don’t go into restaurants only place pickup orders or drive thru. It’s a bit more inconvenient but I think a safe vacation is still very reasonable to do right now. YMMV of course (no pun intended)

 

[GimpYancIent]

Ah, you think that is the reason? Here I thought it was the fires and high cost of living.

A puzzle has many pieces and things have evolved to where is small straw, in this case an iconic entertainment venue started with a mouse, can tip the scale in favor of pulling up stakes and leaving or not.

 

[JoeCamel]

Yep! Full confidence in WDW safety. With some precautions cars, gas stations, McD's etc. will be just fine. Ahhhhhh but those airports and aircraft! No. Planes have issues unless its your personal use aircraft.

Source?

 

[Club Cooloholic]

A puzzle has many pieces and things have evolved to where is small straw, in this case an iconic entertainment venue started with a mouse, can tip the scale in favor of pulling up stakes and leaving or not.

Ok.

 

[GimpYancIent]

Source?

CDC "Interim Guidance for Airlines and Airlines Crew" is just one subdivision of the overall air travel guidance they put out. That said, if you happen to operate your own aircraft for your personal use you can ensure it is safe to travel in, yes, it is all on you. Most folks that travel by air rely on commercial airlines and planes have many issues.

 

[DisneyCane]

The removal of fines is a back door way to prohibit local mask mandates. So a locality can require masks but there‘s no way to enforce the requirement so it essentially doesn’t need to be followed. It’s not like they are going to arrest people and jail them for a violation so what’s left if you remove fines. He’s just avoiding the blowback that happened in Georgia when the governor prohibited mask mandates. It will make it more difficult for even private businesses to enforce any mask rules due to emboldened resistors. I’ll say it again, I feel bad for the front line workers who get stuck trying to enforce these rules.

From my reading they can still fine businesses if they have a mandate. Yes, I get the issues with front line workers and difficult people. However, in the type of business where they may actually help (hair salons, nail salons, massage, etc.) due to prolonged, close contact, the business can refuse service if the customer refuses a mask.

In my opinion the motivation of disallowing fines is to prevent ridiculous policies that a homeowner could be fined for not enforcing masks on private property.

 

[Jrb1979]

From my reading they can still fine businesses if they have a mandate. Yes, I get the issues with front line workers and difficult people. However, in the type of business where they may actually help (hair salons, nail salons, massage, etc.) due to prolonged, close contact, the business can refuse service if the customer refuses a mask.

In my opinion the motivation of disallowing fines is to prevent ridiculous policies that a homeowner could be fined for not enforcing masks on private property.

They should be doing what they are doing here. Here they have already fined a bunch of people $750 each and they will fine the home owner $100,000 for going over the 10 people gathering limit. It all has to do with that they are finding that the majority of new cases are coming from people's private parties and gatherings.

 

[Miss Bella]

They should be doing what they are doing here. Here they have already fined a bunch of people $750 each and they will fine the home owner $100,000 for going over the 10 people gathering limit. It all has to do with that they are finding that the majority of new cases are coming from people's private parties and gatherings.

I’m so thankful I wasn’t born in Canada. I guess the government going to start taking people’s houses.