Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

milordsloth

Well-Known Member
First someone has to feel sick enough to get tested which can take up to 2 weeks. Then they have to wait for results which can take approximately 5 days. Then they have to get sick enough to be hospitalized which can take another 1-3 weeks...give or take. Then they have to become Ill enough to result in a death which can take another week or two.

So, you're saying we haven't seen an uptick in deaths yet because of 2 weeks before wanting to get the test, 1 week for result, 3 weeks to go to hospital...

That's a stretch for sure.
 

Sparksfly

Member
So, you're saying we haven't seen an uptick in deaths yet because of 2 weeks before wanting to get the test, 1 week for result, 3 weeks to go to hospital...

That's a stretch for sure.

No its not at all. Do you really think someone tests positive for this and then dies the next day...or even a week or two after? That's not how these things work in a typical sense. It takes time to attack the body drastically and thoroughly enough to result in a death. It doesn't happen over night.
 
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EricsBiscuit

Well-Known Member
Two issues with this...

1) We aren't going to see deaths related to this spike for at least another couple weeks. First someone has to feel sick enough to get tested which can take up to 2 weeks. Then they have to wait for results which can take approximately 5 days. Then they have to get sick enough to be hospitalized which can take another 1-3 weeks...give or take. Then they have to become Ill enough to result in a death which can take another week or two. Granted some cases result in death much faster than this... some slower...so I'm speaking on what's been common as far as time period from point of testing to an unfortunate resulting death. Keep in mind..there are many of those dying after "recovery" of stroke and heart attack due to the thickening effects this has on the blood.

2) It's not just the deaths that are serious..it's the long term, and possibly permanent illness/damage this can create on the human body. There are many reporting kidney damage, neurological damage, heart damage, lung damage among many other serious issues after "recovery". The majority of these people were healthy up until that point and now suffer from potentially life long illness or injury. To me that's just as serious as death. It's a loss of quality of life... as well as a huge financial change for them as well.
The median age is lower and we have more experience and better treatments available. The mortality rate will be lower. Just as there are side effects not as obvious as a result of having the virus, there are also side effects of our response to the virus. It’s time to reopen. For the hundreds of thousands who rely on Disney for work, directly or indirectly, the parks can’t reopen quick enough.
 

Millionaire2K

Active Member
No its not at all. Do you really think someone tests positive for this and then dies the next day...or even a week or two after? That's not how these things work in a typical sense. It takes time to attack the body drastically and thoroughly enough to result in a death. It doesn't happen over night.

What you're saying is also not how it works.

Most people that die show symptoms, they go to a hospital, get tested and then sadly die.

People who show severe enough symptoms to warrant a hospital visit make up the vast amount of deaths.

Fl has started doing intensive contact tracing and has been finding MANY cases in the "club" scene (younger cases).

Rarely does an asymptomatic person get tested and then die, those cases are rarely fatal as they are asymptomatic.

Most "hidden carriers" don't show any symptoms and just find out they had it when they randomly got tested.

Most new discovered cases the person is shocked they have it and feel fine.

Most all new cases are of people not showing any severe symptoms or are showing no symptoms at all.

Most new infected are below the age of 40.

MOST people will get the virus and be fine. Just because you are finding lots more asymptomatic cases in the below 40 age range doesn't mean lots more deaths.

IF you test positive tomorrow, that means you most likely got the virus a few days sooner as it takes a few day for the virus to have a high enough viral load to be detected. Also if you happen to be feeling fine, you would be ordered to self quarantine and no treatment is needed. Just because you are now "confirmed" it does not increase you risk of death.
 

milordsloth

Well-Known Member
My only advice is don’t rush back to wdw unless you’re a local. There is no reason anyone should be traveling to FL right now and potentially bring it back to their communities.

Unless you happened to, out of sheer luck, book your arrival date the same day as opening. Then the risk is probably worth it for the life long story of "I went to Disney opening day during the pandemic."
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
The change in the median is only useful if case numbers were mostly stagnant. It is another disingenuous narrative and metric being peddled. Cases have increased nearly 10-fold in the last month.

Yes PROPORTIONALLY younger demographics have increased, but older demographics have also increased by a significant multiplier as well, just not as insane.

Like symptoms at time of testing (which they don't publish), this is just another means of massaging data.

The reality is significantly more symptomatic at risk population are being diagnosed today than a month ago. Like 4-5x more. But that doesn't sound good.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
I don't think so. The core element of the Shanghai opening was the contract tracing/clean bill of health app that meant you couldn't get a park entry unless you could show "green" on the no contact with COVID screening. WDW (and the U.S.) doesn't have anything like that and is not likely to have such a level of contract tracing in 2020.
There will literally never be contact tracing to that degree in the USA. The right to privacy has been very broadly interpreted in the past and HIPAA, which came decades after that explicitly protects medical information.
Maybe they have, but we'll never know as the official numbers from China are a cynical deception coming from a corrupt communist dictatorship, that nobody in there right mind believes.



No again, the numbers coming out of China are a steaming pile of BS, so we'll never know the truth.

Exactly. We're supposed to believe that after a day with 12 new cases they are triggered to lock down a city?
The change in the median is only useful if case numbers were mostly stagnant. It is another disingenuous narrative and metric being peddled. Cases have increased nearly 10-fold in the last month.

Yes PROPORTIONALLY younger demographics have increased, but older demographics have also increased by a significant multiplier as well, just not as insane.

Like symptoms at time of testing (which they don't publish), this is just another means of massaging data.

The reality is significantly more symptomatic at risk population are being diagnosed today than a month ago. Like 4-5x more. But that doesn't sound good.
Then why is there no significant increase in the number of hospitalizations?
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
At this point they really should delay reopening.
Why? If the procedures they are putting in place were determined to be safe with 1,000 new cases per day in the state then why don't they work with 9,000 new cases?

It was pretty much guaranteed that there would be some people who had the virus at WDW. Why does it matter that there might be more? With the level of contagiousness of this virus, if the procedures aren't going to work, it would have led to a major increase in cases within a few days starting at the lower level.

This spike is clearly related to people not social distancing. They wouldn't have closed bars if they didn't have data showing bars to be an issue. They wouldn't be begging people not to have private gatherings if they didn't have data showing there is spread happening at gatherings.

At WDW there will be social distancing in place, there will be a requirement to wear a mask and there will be temperature screenings to screen for symptomatic people who are going to be the most contagious. With respect to the way WDW will operate, it doesn't matter if 100,000 people per day are getting infected at bars.
 

Heppenheimer

Well-Known Member
There will literally never be contact tracing to that degree in the USA. The right to privacy has been very broadly interpreted in the past and HIPAA, which came decades after that explicitly protects medical information.


Exactly. We're supposed to believe that after a day with 12 new cases they are triggered to lock down a city?

Then why is there no significant increase in the number of hospitalizations?
Medical information can be shared with public health agencies without an authorized release. HIPPA allows for this, for the express purpose of tracking epidemics.

Certain diseases must be reported to government health agencies, including COVID19. They do not always request personally identifying information with each case, but they reserve that authorization if needed.
 
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monothingie

Proxy War 2024: Never Forget
Premium Member
No its not at all. Do you really think someone tests positive for this and then dies the next day...or even a week or two after? That's not how these things work in a typical sense. It takes time to attack the body drastically and thoroughly enough to result in a death. It doesn't happen over night.
Or, as in the overwhelming majority of cases, they experience little to no symptoms and get better and go on with their lives.
 

Dizneykid

Active Member
Why? If the procedures they are putting in place were determined to be safe with 1,000 new cases per day in the state then why don't they work with 9,000 new cases?

It was pretty much guaranteed that there would be some people who had the virus at WDW. Why does it matter that there might be more? With the level of contagiousness of this virus, if the procedures aren't going to work, it would have led to a major increase in cases within a few days starting at the lower level.

This spike is clearly related to people not social distancing. They wouldn't have closed bars if they didn't have data showing bars to be an issue. They wouldn't be begging people not to have private gatherings if they didn't have data showing there is spread happening at gatherings.

At WDW there will be social distancing in place, there will be a requirement to wear a mask and there will be temperature screenings to screen for symptomatic people who are going to be the most contagious. With respect to the way WDW will operate, it doesn't matter if 100,000 people per day are getting infected at bars.

This is where I get confused. We've clearly shifted over the past month into accererating businesses that are taking it seriously. We are kept in the dark about how a majority of these new Florida cases are spreading but we can safely assume that it has a lot to do with gatherings and prolonged contact. Even if someone happens to be infected at the mouse house, it would be almost certainly asymptomatic. People will be screened at the literal entrance. The odds of a sick person even wanting to go to a hot theme park is dramatically lowered and the masks are there to catch any outlier that might be there. Most of my research shows that asymptomatic people are less contagious in a community setting. That is without wearing a mask btw. It sounds like these asymptomatic phenomenons are happening at households or workplaces where your guard is down and interacting closely with people for hours on end.
 

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