Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[MisterPenguin]

Just like the total number of positives can go up simply because you're doing more testing, so can the rate of those who do test positive compared to all who are tested, can go down. Because, if you're testing a lot more people, instead of just those with symptoms, then your rate of positives could go down, even though the disease is still spreading exponentially.

The daily number of deaths is the figure to watch for. Testing criteria isn't going to affect that.

 

[Thelazer]

June 7th too early. By a month at least.

I'd bet on a soft open to locals / AP or cast members / family only.
I'd say early June.

Public open July 4th... why else would Pence fly in personally.

 

[GoofGoof]

I'd bet on a soft open to locals / AP or cast members / family only.
I'd say early June.

Public open July 4th... why else would Pence fly in personally.

I thought Pence was flying in to deliver PPE to a nursing home. He had a few extra masks lying around that he wasn’t using anyway

Pence to visit Orlando nursing home, also talk tourism

Pence is scheduled to participate in a discussion with hospitality and tourism leaders to talk about plans for reopening.

www.wesh.com

 

[Thelazer]

I thought Pence was flying in to deliver PPE to a nursing home. He had a few extra masks lying around that he wasn’t using anyway

Pence to visit Orlando nursing home, also talk tourism

Pence is scheduled to participate in a discussion with hospitality and tourism leaders to talk about plans for reopening.

www.wesh.com

I'm betting he has a nonscheduled stop / lunch / phone call / visit with... a few people.
(likely also kept pretty quiet.)

 

[TrojanUSC]

I'd bet on a soft open to locals / AP or cast members / family only.
I'd say early June.

Public open July 4th... why else would Pence fly in personally.

Again, June too early with so many unknowns about a second wave.

Pence will be in town but unlikely Disney will announce anything at a visit with Pence, lest they be seen as political.

 

[GoofGoof]

I'm betting he has a nonscheduled stop / lunch / phone call / visit with... a few people.
(likely also kept pretty quiet.)

If he stops at DS for lunch it could be our first shot to see if they enforce the mask rules

 

[VaderTron]

Hmmm who would have thought? May 17th, the end of the week after reopening lots of business in Florida, they have the largest number of reported cases EVER for the state listed at 1,541 cases. Let's just go ahead and open up WDW in a few weeks. There seem to be no issues...

 

[robhedin]

I'm betting he has a nonscheduled stop / lunch / phone call / visit with... a few people.
(likely also kept pretty quiet.)

Well considering that article specifically says:

"Afterwards, Pence is scheduled to participate in a discussion with hospitality and tourism leaders to talk about plans for reopening."

I'd say that it's probably not unscheduled nor being kept too quiet.

 

[VaderTron]

Hmmm who would have thought? May 17th, the end of the week after reopening lots of business in Florida, they have the largest number of reported cases EVER for the state listed at 1,541 cases. Let's just go ahead and open up WDW in a few weeks. There seem to be no issues...

Some say follow the death count as if that's all that matters. (I don't agree.)

Even so, about 100 people die every day in car accidents in the entire United States. Yesterday 90 people died from Covid-19 JUST IN FLORIDA.

 

[Sam Hill]

Hmmm who would have thought? May 17th, the end of the week after reopening lots of business in Florida, they have the largest number of reported cases EVER for the state listed at 1,541 cases. Let's just go ahead and open up WDW in a few weeks. There seem to be no issues...

2 things
1- Virus has a incubation period of about 2 weeks. Most people go get tested when they start to develop symptoms. So the positive results you’re talking about are really due to the week BEFORE most businesses started to reopen.
2- When # of tests rise, so do the # of positives. What you need to look at is % positive, which has actually gone down in the state of FL.

I’ve been a silent lurker for a while now, because, like you all, I want to be in the know on the reopening (and my travel plans). But dang, most of you have some grim & pessimistic views. Gotta inject some positivity into your lives!

 

[tonymu]

When Governor Abbot of Texas announced the moving to phase two he showed this chart showing that the positivity rate, which is what the Federal Guidelines say must go down to move to the next phase, are for Texas. While Texas has been opening up and testing more, the positive rate has been going down. The rises in daily infections seen recently are from 3 isolated outbreaks that are being managed, two in the panhandle and one in El Paso. Two of those areas have an issue with meat packing plants that have never had to close. None of the three areas will be moving to phase 2 until the outbreaks there are under control.

 

[VaderTron]

2 things
1- Virus has a incubation period of about 2 weeks. Most people go get tested when they start to develop symptoms. So the positive results you’re talking about are really due to the week BEFORE most businesses started to reopen.
2- When # of tests rise, so do the # of positives. What you need to look at is % positive, which has actually gone down in the state of FL.

I’ve been a silent lurker for a while now, because, like you all, I want to be in the know on the reopening (and my travel plans). But dang, most of you have some grim & pessimistic views. Gotta inject some positivity into your lives!

Incubation period is UP TO 2 weeks. Most common exposure to symptom onset time is 3-5 days.

When you increase testing you increase the number of positive and negative results.

Deaths from the disease in one state almost match car accident deaths of entire country.

It's not getting better no matter how much people want it (including me). Ignoring, excusing, "yeah but"-ing won't change that.

 

[5thGenTexan]

I wonder how today was at City Walk. I know it’s already been warm here in Florida, but today was the first day where I felt like the true gross Florida heat and humidity finally reared it’s ugly head. I didn’t even enjoy my maskless 1/3 mile walk to my mailbox (I enjoyed it even less when I got there and realized it was Sunday...)

I am thankful I can go to the mailbox and not have to worry about a mask.

 

[MisterPenguin]

And requiring new cases to decline is the absolute dumbest metric possible. It’s completely meaningless. Surely you can realize that, if you math at all.

I've posted the lateral G's of MK's spinners based on their radius and rate of revolution. And the formula for how the number of gondolas in a station, the interval of gondolas, and the rope velocity are interconnected to produce the final capacity of a lift system.

I know how to math.

You don't say how looking at the number of deaths is "dumb," which means you can't. You don't know math, or, more likely, you ignore math and anything that might prevent "OPEN NOW."

It's your entire posting history related to COVID.

 

[Yodascousin]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/health/coronavirus-plague-pandemic-history.amp.html.

this was an interesting read I never knew about the flu in 1968 it seems quite similar numbers wise to what we are experiencing now and seems to imply that this will end when society wants it to end

 

[GladToBeHear]

Arguing over which data points to follow is futile. As we continue to open things back up, all the numbers are going to go up. We know this. We knew this from the beginning. Again -- the lockdown was only intended to buy the medical system some time to prepare. We did that. Now it turns out the virus isn't as deadly as we originally thought. So it's time to let it run its course and protect those highest at-risk.

 

[zengoth]

Good read before hitting the sack. Don’t know if I believe all of it but most sounds right. Epcot the biggest headache? Sounds about right.

Epcot is quickly becoming one of Disney's biggest coronavirus headaches

As Orlando-area theme parks look to slowly begin reopening, we are starting to learn more about many of the projects expected to debut this year....

m.orlandoweekly.com

Seems like what's been discussed on these boards, no surprises. Epcot does have the space to fan people out, but unless everything's open, folks may not want to stop by. It will be interesting to see what's decided as far as capacity is concerned. If it were me (and I wouldn't run the company into bankruptcy), i'd let only World Showcase open without admission and just have the larger restaurants operational (and maybe the few stores that have a bigger footprint). At least folks would have someplace to go to unwind that isn't Disney Springs. my $0.03...

 

[jinx8402]

I think hospital usage is the biggest indicator for the virus, which is a main reason Disney is looking at that metric when determining when to open. Here in RI, that is basically the #1 indicator the governor is using as well. This also goes back to the original intention of flattening the curve, to not over run the hospital system.

Positive cases relies on how many tests you are doing. Positivity rate alone doesn't tell you much. But hospital usage, even with essentially 0 testing, will tell you just how many people are getting sick enough to seek medical attention, with a portion of those who need intensive care. Now obviously testing needs to occur to help determine exact number of cases and where a hotspot may pop up.

 

[Polynesia]

To those that think a vaccine is impossible to develop sooner rather than later. I remember as a child standing in line to be vaccinated for this.
Just how much so can be seen if we look back at how the U.S. — and indeed the world — handled the now largely forgotten 1968–’69 Hong Kong flu pandemic. It was an especially infectious virus that had the ability to mutate and render existing vaccines ineffective.

Hundreds of thousands were hospitalized in the U.S. as the disease hit all 50 states by Christmas 1968. Like COVID-19, It was fatal primarily to people older than 65 with preexisting conditions.

The Centers for Disease Control reports that it killed more than 1 million people worldwide, more than 100,000 of them in the U.S. Luckily, a vaccine was developed early — in August 1969. But the Hong Kong flu is still with us as a seasonal malady.

 

[lilypgirl]

To those that think a vaccine is impossible to develop sooner rather than later. I remember as a child standing in line to be vaccinated for this.
Just how much so can be seen if we look back at how the U.S. — and indeed the world — handled the now largely forgotten 1968–’69 Hong Kong flu pandemic. It was an especially infectious virus that had the ability to mutate and render existing vaccines ineffective.

Hundreds of thousands were hospitalized in the U.S. as the disease hit all 50 states by Christmas 1968. Like COVID-19, It was fatal primarily to people older than 65 with preexisting conditions.

The Centers for Disease Control reports that it killed more than 1 million people worldwide, more than 100,000 of them in the U.S. Luckily, a vaccine was developed early — in August 1969. But the Hong Kong flu is still with us as a seasonal malady.

Is it as deadly now as it was back when it started? I am assuming not because we don't really here much about it. It makes me wonder if the rona will meet the same fate.