WDW Reopening Estimates

[peter11435]

Submitting your proposal today would look like you are rushing it. The optics of this are important to companies like Disney. They want to open as soon as possible, but if they have a proposal ready to go it wasn’t going to be submitted today.

This.

Also, while this was news to us today, there is no chance that Disney and Universal were surprised by today’s announcement. There have likely already been discussions between them and the governor and both parties were well aware he would announce the need for this submittal.

 

[TrojanUSC]

Submitting your proposal today would look like you are rushing it. The optics of this are important to companies like Disney. They want to open as soon as possible, but if they have a proposal ready to go it wasn’t going to be submitted today.

They want to open as soon as it's safe, not as soon as it's possible. Two very different things at the moment for a worldwide tourist destination.

Florida's status is one piece of the puzzle, but not the biggest piece.

 

[Herdman]

Meanwhile, they have to submit their approval to the county first, before sending to the Governor and none of them have even done that yet. Nobody is any rush. This is going to happen before July, at the earliest.

Disney, Universal and SeaWorld need Mayor Jerry Demings’ approval to reopen. They haven’t asked yet.

None of Orlando’s major theme parks — Walt Disney World, Universal Orlando and SeaWorld — have asked Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings for approval to reopen, he said Friday after…

www.orlandosentinel.com

I totally agree. I just posted the news, didn't mention a timeline

 

[mhaftman7]

What gave you the impression they’re not calculating?

I bet Disney said something to the effect of “you first”

EVERYTHING is calculated. Down to the news release. Like it had been said, Disney and UO knew this info prior to the public. It was reported on a Friday to get back burnered for the weekend. Wouldn’t be surprised if more info is released next Friday afternoon ahead of Memorial Day weekend. I’d be surprised if Disney doesn’t already have a plan in place, a template at the minimum. They’ll let UO submit first to see what gets approved/denied. Yeah they’ll get the “We did it first” award, but you don’t think Disney takes it a step further just to one up and give the appearance of taking more precautions, supplying more magic, etc.

The best news is the Cast Members are going back. The template/plan will begin to be implemented for training purposes and tweaked as needed. I had originally voted for July, but best case as of now would be week of June 15th IMO. That could change if submissions need to be adjusted or anything major occurs.

The info I’m really looking forward for is how they plan to do transportation. Social distancing, even at reduced capacity, will be hard on bussing. I would imagine AT LEAST a fifty percent increase in busses available to accommodate peak times. Second drivers on board to help sterilize the bus after each use could be a possibility. Transportation will be the biggest obstacle IMO.

 

[MagicWDI]

My guess would be Disney knows exactly what they are doing. I would venture into speculating they probably want two steady weeks of declining numbers in both cases and deaths in the state of Florida. They probably want more testing as well and may even have a set number of tests per day. This is of course if they open up to state residence first as CDC is still discouraging non essential travel at this time. Disney will not go against CDC recommendations. Because of this I speculate a small number of resorts opening or each resort will only operate at a third of the capacity, increasing capacity each week if cases/deaths continue to decrease.

When the CDC removes its travel recommendations they can start allowing domestic travel in small numbers. (Assuming they only start with state residence.)

While Disney is waiting on those criteria to be met, the real headache comes at operations and logistics. How many resorts to open. How many rooms at each resort to open. How many buses/boats are needed. Reduced transportation capacity and scheduling. Etc. Etc. And putting all these measures in motion with current reservations in place. It won't bode well. WDW is most likely opening up in phases. Even when they set a date to reopen, some current reservations will still need to be altered.

This is going to be a very tricky year for many, many reasons. And if cases/deaths start dramatically increasing again, there is no doubt they will pull the plug on everything again, much quicker than they did initially.

 

[Lilofan]

My guess would be Disney knows exactly what they are doing. I would venture into speculating they probably want two steady weeks of declining numbers in both cases and deaths in the state of Florida. They probably want more testing as well and may even have a set number of tests per day. This is of course if they open up to state residence first as CDC is still discouraging non essential travel at this time. Disney will not go against CDC recommendations. Because of this I speculate a small number of resorts opening or each resort will only operate at a third of the capacity, increasing capacity each week if cases/deaths continue to decrease.

When the CDC removes its travel recommendations they can start allowing domestic travel in small numbers. (Assuming they only start with state residence.)

While Disney is waiting on those criteria to be met, the real headache comes at operations and logistics. How many resorts to open. How many rooms at each resort to open. How many buses/boats are needed. Reduced transportation capacity and scheduling. Etc. Etc. And putting all these measures in motion with current reservations in place. It won't bode well. WDW is most likely opening up in phases. Even when they set a date to reopen, some current reservations will still need to be altered.

This is going to be a very tricky year for many, many reasons. And if cases/deaths start dramatically increasing again, there is no doubt they will pull the plug on everything again, much quicker than they did initially.

I give credit to WDW in the subject of a constant state of improvement. The policy this week may not be the policy next month or even next year but a company that tweaks and tries to improve is a good company.

 

[marni1971]

My guess would be Disney knows exactly what they are doing.

In short? Not really. They’re doing the best they can with the information they have which is constantly changing. They are as well prepared as they can be until things change. which Is happening daily, if not more At the moment.

They have an idea of the soonest timeframe when they’ll be reopening And are planning around that, with plenty of scope to change the plans or extend the downtime.

 

[mhaftman7]

This is of course if they open up to state residence first as CDC is still discouraging non essential travel at this time.

Why do people consistently go back to Florida residents to be the initial focus. Non-essential travel isn’t limited to interstate travel. Going to the next town over for non-essential reasons is still considered non-essential travel. I’ll probably be wrong, but I’d imagine that Disney will want to be able to service the nation before opening. I still believe that they are going to start the reservation system to track and enforce reduced capacity.

 

[GatorMom]

Why do people consistently go back to Florida residents to be the initial focus. Non-essential travel isn’t limited to interstate travel. Going to the next town over for non-essential reasons is still considered non-essential travel. I’ll probably be wrong, but I’d imagine that Disney will want to be able to service the nation before opening. I still believe that they are going to start the reservation system to track and enforce reduced capacity.

We don’t have any restrictions for traveling within Florida. Even Florida universities are finally allowing students to return to move out of their dorms.

 

[Getachew]

In short? Not really. They’re doing the best they can with the information they have which is constantly changing. They are as well prepared as they can be until things change. which Is happening daily, if not more At the moment.

They have an idea of the soonest timeframe when they’ll be reopening And are planning around that, with plenty of scope to change the plans or extend the downtime.

would that timeframe be July?

 

[MagicWDI]

In short? Not really. They’re doing the best they can with the information they have which is constantly changing. They are as well prepared as they can be until things change. which Is happening daily, if not more At the moment.

They have an idea of the soonest timeframe when they’ll be reopening And are planning around that, with plenty of scope to change the plans or extend the downtime.

So what you're saying is they are basing whatever timeframe around the virus... which is what I thought I was trying to say...

 

[Doberge]

Whatever policy is submitted will likely be designed to be dynamic to not have hands tied. It should be worded as a minimums with flexibility to increase as needed.

There are good and bad reasons to submit first plans. It's great to be first and give everyone a sense of "we are on top of this and don't need to react to what others are doing ... we will set high standards for ourselves and others will follow." Coming in first with high standards puts a lot of pressure on competitors to match or exceed.

 

[Herdman]

My guess would be Disney knows exactly what they are doing. I would venture into speculating they probably want two steady weeks of declining numbers in both cases and deaths in the state of Florida. They probably want more testing as well and may even have a set number of tests per day. This is of course if they open up to state residence first as CDC is still discouraging non essential travel at this time. Disney will not go against CDC recommendations. Because of this I speculate a small number of resorts opening or each resort will only operate at a third of the capacity, increasing capacity each week if cases/deaths continue to decrease.

When the CDC removes its travel recommendations they can start allowing domestic travel in small numbers. (Assuming they only start with state residence.)

While Disney is waiting on those criteria to be met, the real headache comes at operations and logistics. How many resorts to open. How many rooms at each resort to open. How many buses/boats are needed. Reduced transportation capacity and scheduling. Etc. Etc. And putting all these measures in motion with current reservations in place. It won't bode well. WDW is most likely opening up in phases. Even when they set a date to reopen, some current reservations will still need to be altered.

This is going to be a very tricky year for many, many reasons. And if cases/deaths start dramatically increasing again, there is no doubt they will pull the plug on everything again, much quicker than they did initially.

Tricky is the key word. It stands to reason if more tests are done then the number of cases is going to increase. I think they are going to have to look more on a percentage of positive cases to tests done rather than just the total positives.

 

[MagicWDI]

Tricky is the key word. It stands to reason if more tests are done then the number of cases is going to increase. I think they are going to have to look more on a percentage of positive cases to tests done rather than just the total positives.

This is true, but what doesn't change due to lack of testing is the death rate. This too has to have a steady downward trajectory before large gatherings can resume safely without resulting in major spreading.

But why testing is very important, both molecular and antibody, is to gauge how widespread the virus is currently and how far it has already spread. The data is very important and needed to make informed decisions or else we are just shooting in the dark and have to rely on estimates. I'm sure Disney's health officials are advising them of this and is the main reason Disney has not committed to setting a date. Everything is still very fluid. I also believe they don't want to have to close again due to another wave of infections, and that's coming from a business standpoint.

 

[DisneyCane]

This is true, but what doesn't change due to lack of testing is the death rate. This too has to have a steady downward trajectory before large gatherings can resume safely without resulting in major spreading.

But why testing is very important, both molecular and antibody, is to gauge how widespread the virus is currently and how far it has already spread. The data is very important and needed to make informed decisions or else we are just shooting in the dark and have to rely on estimates. I'm sure Disney's health officials are advising them of this and is the main reason Disney has not committed to setting a date. Everything is still very fluid. I also believe they don't want to have to close again due to another wave of infections, and that's coming from a business standpoint.

The number of deaths per day is helpful to see the trends in actual infections. However, the mortality rate can be lower with increased infections if the most vulnerable populations (65+, nursing homes, etc.) stay isolated because it is so much lower in the younger demographics.

Nationwide, the deaths per day seems to be on a steady, downward trajectory. Hopefully that continues.

 

[wdw71fan]

In short? Not really. They’re doing the best they can with the information they have which is constantly changing. They are as well prepared as they can be until things change. which Is happening daily, if not more At the moment.

They have an idea of the soonest timeframe when they’ll be reopening And are planning around that, with plenty of scope to change the plans or extend the downtime.

 

[Herdman]

This is true, but what doesn't change due to lack of testing is the death rate. This too has to have a steady downward trajectory before large gatherings can resume safely without resulting in major spreading.

But why testing is very important, both molecular and antibody, is to gauge how widespread the virus is currently and how far it has already spread. The data is very important and needed to make informed decisions or else we are just shooting in the dark and have to rely on estimates. I'm sure Disney's health officials are advising them of this and is the main reason Disney has not committed to setting a date. Everything is still very fluid. I also believe they don't want to have to close again due to another wave of infections, and that's coming from a business standpoint.

All very true, but I don't believe the death rate is as high as it appears since they esitmate that 20% or more of the population may have had the virus to this point and never even known it. It's going to be hard to make a business decision on a possible second wave since no one knows for sure when it may be and how hard it will hit. If our testing has improved as they predict we should be able to isolate the case and lessen the spread much quicker than we were in the beginning stages of the virus.

 

[CastAStone]

All very true, but I don't believe the death rate is as high as it appears since they esitmate that 20% or more of the population may have had the virus to this point and never even known it. It's going to be hard to make a business decision on a possible second wave since no one knows for sure when it may be and how hard it will hit. If our testing has improved as they predict we should be able to isolate the case and lessen the spread much quicker than we were in the beginning stages of the virus.

1 in 415 New York City residents has died of coronavirus (8,300,000 residents divided by 20,000 deaths). A recent study indicated that 80% of NYC residents showed no antibodies.

 

[MagicWDI]

The number of deaths per day is helpful to see the trends in actual infections. However, the mortality rate can be lower with increased infections if the most vulnerable populations (65+, nursing homes, etc.) stay isolated because it is so much lower in the younger demographics.

Nationwide, the deaths per day seems to be on a steady, downward trajectory. Hopefully that continues.

It is very good to see nationwide deaths declining and hopefully this trend continues. However, take NY and NJ out of the mix and it's a different story. Just looking at FL covid deaths, we are still seeing an increasing number of deaths per day. That needs to change. Not sure if WDW wants to open while deaths are increasing.

 

[Herdman]

1 in 415 New York City residents has died of coronavirus (8,300,000 residents divided by 20,000 deaths). A recent study indicated that 80% of NYC residents showed no antibodies.

That's 1% which is much better than the 2% or more they suspected. The 1% is still much higher than the flu though.