Will these prices ever cap out?

[networkpro]

I agree...

I’ve learned all of my Nobel grade economics knowledge on Disney forums from what I call “community college theorists”....the Econ 002 B+ Students.

Then how about a percentage? Do numbers work for you? 28%. That's the percentage of US households that have incomes of six figures or more. That's 36 million households out of 128 million. Of course, there's not an even geographical distribution of these households and every location has different associated costs.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Then how about a percentage? Do numbers work for you? 28%. That's the percentage of US households that have incomes of six figures or more. That's 36 million households out of 128 million. Of course, there's not an even geographical distribution of these households and every location has different associated costs.

What are their obligations? How much discretionary spending does that equate to?

Impossible to calculate

...and a question use for me: is six figures “a lot”?

I submit it is not.

 

[bryanfze55]

What are their obligations? How much discretionary spending does that equate to?

Impossible to calculate

...and a question use for me: is six figures “a lot”?

I submit it is not.

Way too many variables go into determining whether or not that is a lot of money. I will say I’ve structured our life to be able to live on ~$30K or so a year. Everything beyond that goes to saving and enjoying life, or covering random expenses. Inflating your fixed costs as your salary increases is wealth destruction.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Way too many variables go into determining whether or not that is a lot of money.

I agree...that was my point. Can’t say “$100,000 is good money, ain’t it?”

Impossible to tell.

I enjoy these discussions...but we all take what information we have available and extrapolate to where we think it goes...never knowing if we’ll ever get there

 

[networkpro]

What are their obligations? How much discretionary spending does that equate to?

Impossible to calculate

...and a question use for me: is six figures “a lot”?

I submit it is not.

Hence the diffweent

In the reedy creek charter, Florida yielded the right to oversee most matters. Reedy creek has the highest amount of “home rule” privileges of anywhere in the United States. It’s an economic Vatican.

They do have their own fire Marshalls and fire codes...I’ve met them/worked with them
Long ago

They also have the right to build thier own nuclear power plant.

 

[FettFan]

Disney’s a very special place for many people and many will do almost anything to get there and the Disney company taking advantage of it. I’d rather them hold out on the fancy gadgets in these rides and attractions we have lived so long without and still enjoyed the parks just as much maybe even more. I’m going to Epcot, the crowds at the Magic Kingdom aren’t worth it to me but it’s a shame that others have to give up on something they have loved for so long not to mention sold itself. it would be a shame if the parks turned into a getaway for the rich and rich only. For what I see it the board is milking the parks and stock until they bail leaving Disney bankrupt. Educate me if I’m wrong that’s how I see it I know nothing about the market but I really should.

Not as long as there's demand for Disney. Basic economics: as demand rises, prices will also rise.


Prices won't drop unless the demand drops (such as during the post-9/11 travel slump and the 2008 Great Recession), and Disney needs lower prices to lure in more customers.

But should that happen, Disney won't be alone. Disney and Universal (and to a lesser degree Sea World and Busch Gardens) exist as an oligopoly. They base their prices on current trends and generally all move together in raising or lowering to stay in competition with each other.
And since there is an almost-constant call for Disney to build a 5th gate (and the fact that Universal is currently starting to lay the groundwork for a 3rd gate), unless something major happens (like 9/11 times 2356, "My God... That's... I don't even know what that is!!!" ), you're more likely to get struck by lightning after purchasing a winning powerball ticket than Disney will be dropping prices.

 

[Trackmaster]

Yeah you’re probably a low key elitist, but there’s nothing wrong with that.

My understanding is the last recession did reduce crowd size greatly but not necessarily pricing. Less people could afford to go, and the parks will an immensely more pleasant experience.

That being said, the last recession was the worst since the Great Depression. We’ve had many recessions where unemployment didn’t significantly increase, and odds are that the next recession will be more in line with those than it will the “Great” Recession. Prices won’t decrease, and I would expect crowd size to decrease only marginally.

No, the mini-depression had a profound impact on Disney and the theme park industry as a whole. Let's not hope for one again. It practically made the industry extinct. It was a miracle that they were able to recover. Six Flags had file bankruptcy and sold off several parks. SEAS had very dark days... coupled with Blackfish. SeaWorld Orlando used to outdraw Islands of Adventure to put it in perspective. Universal/IOA had dark days too.

Really, look at Universal and Disney's ride line ups and look at the dates. Notice how there's a gaping hole from 2008-2012? Notice how Universal had awesome Disney style rides before the recession, and is doing better now, but many of the rides between 2008-2016 are basically just videos? I'd imagine that anything in process in 2007 was scrapped, and the parks didn't really start planning anything major until 2010ish. So the good stuff wouldn't be ready until 2012 or later.

Its had a ripple effects on the parks. Epcot, DHK, and DAK are very underbuilt now. They've had older rides and attractions removed, but until recently they just haven't been replacing the old stuff. DHS has barely been touched in the last 20 years, and they're just now getting around to reloading the park. Epcot has turned into mostly a food and wine and festival park with educational stuff mostly scrapped. DAK really hasn't added anything beyond Pandora in years.

I blame a lot of this on the financial meltdown. It was recent enough that the parks needed those years for new rides and updates to keep the parks filled. We're seeing huge gaps in the parks where consistent additions were needed. They're playing catch up now.

 

[Trackmaster]

It was just discussed in the earnings call fallout. International business is 15% of the total attendance.

This is constantly overstated. Florida residents are also overstated.

The main bulk of people in the tragic kingdom are ‘Muricans...

So while there is plenty of demand, to have the stance that overpricing is not a possibility because people will materialize out of the ether is false.
.

.. International guests may account for 15% of the foot traffic on a given day, but what about the percentage of net profit? I'd imagine that the margin on those guests is much higher and the revenue is much higher. So revenue from international guests might be 25-30% of the total.

 

[larryz]

The mentality I see in a lot of posts has gone from 'no way will i ever pay xx per day to get in the parks' to 'i feel bad for the families and people that can't afford it now'. Disney called everyone on their 'won't go back at this price' bluffs and the new normal is paying whatever it takes to get there and get in but salvaging some of that outrage by feeling bad for people not willing or able to pay it. Most on these boards have no price limit to keep them from going back. For some of the same people that mentality isn't tied to a corresponding economic reality. The days of waiting for WDW to finally hit the point where they get punished for raising prices so quickly are over. The next recession will do it but not because they ever hit some magical price cap where reality sets in for most people. Still too many people willing to be miserable for 51 weeks per year in order to spend 1 week at WDW for Facebook/Instagram likes.

If I had to pay (a) rack rate for rooms and/or (b) full face value on the tickets, I wouldn't be going. And neither, I suspect, would a lot of people who keep going back.

 

[larryz]

I really don’t think that’s as common as people think it is. But I could be wrong

Credit-Card Debt in U.S. Rises to Record $930 Billion

Total credit-card balances increased by $46 billion, well above the previous peak seen before the 2008 financial crisis.

www.wsj.com

 

[Shouldigo12]

Please, can we just sticky one of these threads and be done with it? I'm all for people talking about what they want on a forum, but we really don't need a new "When will the prices stop increasing" thread every single week. It was old a year ago, and it's old now. If people want to talk about prices, go ahead, but nothing new is ever said here. It just develops into one big argument of this person saying the price increases are ridiculous and not worth it, and another person pointing out that attendance numbers are still high so clearly DW is still great and you have no taste, and the other person saying no, you're just a sheep and it sucks, and so on.

Seriously, I'm this close to making bingo cards for each predicable posting and starting a forum wide game next time I see one of these threads.

 

[RustySpork]

Please, can we just sticky one of these threads and be done with it? I'm all for people talking about what they want on a forum, but we really don't need a new "When will the prices stop increasing" thread every single week. It was old a year ago, and it's old now. If people want to talk about prices, go ahead, but nothing new is ever said here. It just develops into one big argument of this person saying the price increases are ridiculous and not worth it, and another person pointing out that attendance numbers are still high so clearly DW is still great and you have no taste, and the other person saying no, you're just a sheep and it sucks, and so on.

Seriously, I'm this close to making bingo cards for each predicable posting and starting a forum wide game next time I see one of these threads.

If you didn't notice, attendance is still high so they haven't reached the ceiling yet.

 

[Lilofan]

Please, can we just sticky one of these threads and be done with it? I'm all for people talking about what they want on a forum, but we really don't need a new "When will the prices stop increasing" thread every single week. It was old a year ago, and it's old now. If people want to talk about prices, go ahead, but nothing new is ever said here. It just develops into one big argument of this person saying the price increases are ridiculous and not worth it, and another person pointing out that attendance numbers are still high so clearly DW is still great and you have no taste, and the other person saying no, you're just a sheep and it sucks, and so on.

Seriously, I'm this close to making bingo cards for each predicable posting and starting a forum wide game next time I see one of these threads.

Perhaps there are new members to the forum that would like to share their opinions?

 

[Shouldigo12]

Perhaps there are new members to the forum that would like to share their opinions?

Which is the thread should just be stickied. I'm not saying no one should say their piece, but opening the same thread every week where the same people share the same opinions, usually in a way that leads to arguments and bickering instead of a real discussion, gets old.

 

[networkpro]

No, the mini-depression had a profound impact on Disney and the theme park industry as a whole. Let's not hope for one again. It practically made the industry extinct. It was a miracle that they were able to recover. Six Flags had file bankruptcy and sold off several parks. SEAS had very dark days... coupled with Blackfish. SeaWorld Orlando used to outdraw Islands of Adventure to put it in perspective. Universal/IOA had dark days too.

I blame a lot of this on the financial meltdown. It was recent enough that the parks needed those years for new rides and updates to keep the parks filled. We're seeing huge gaps in the parks where consistent additions were needed. They're playing catch up now.

A drive down I 4 from the Florida Turnpike to Disney during that time period was very telling to see exactly how large the impact on the Orlando tourist industry was. Seeing hotel after hotel closed with For Sale signs facing the freeway, little traffic on I-Drive and the ability to walk into any restaurant without reservations and be immediately seated and served. Times were dismal.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

A drive down I 4 from the Florida Turnpike to Disney during that time period was very telling to see exactly how large the impact on the Orlando tourist industry was. Seeing hotel after hotel closed with For Sale signs facing the freeway, little traffic on I-Drive and the ability to walk into any restaurant without reservations and be immediately seated and served. Times were dismal.

I use the “crane test”

If you drive down 4, you still see industrial cranes all over the place that multiply like bugs in up times...because Florida is guaranteed to over expand.

If there are no cranes...Times are not good

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

This notion of Disney turning into something "only for the rich" is something that has been said for as long as I can remember. Heck, it probably started a week after Disneyland first opened.

The demand is clearly there. What do people who complain about prices suggest? That prices be lowered, and they implement a lottery system to decide who can go? Let's face it, if the parks are packed now, they don't have the capacity to meet demand if this hypothetical, accessible price point were to come to pass.

I would also note that Disney has never been affordable to everyone. There has always been a portion of the population that cannot afford to go, even when prices were relatively lower. I feel that when people complain that "Disney shouldn't only be affordable for the rich", what they really mean is "Disney should be affordable for me".

 

[RustySpork]

This notion of Disney turning into something "only for the rich" is something that has been said for as long as I can remember. Heck, it probably started a week after Disneyland first opened.

The demand is clearly there. What do people who complain about prices suggest? That prices be lowered, and they implement a lottery system to decide who can go? Let's face it, if the parks are packed now, they don't have the capacity to meet demand if this hypothetical, accessible price point were to come to pass.

I would also note that Disney has never been affordable to everyone. There has always been a portion of the population that cannot afford to go, even when prices were relatively lower. I feel that when people complain that "Disney shouldn't only be affordable for the rich", what they really mean is "Disney should be affordable for me".

What if the prices were both too high and not high enough?

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

What if the prices were both too high and not high enough?

I could buy that, especially in California. Annual passes are arguably under-priced, and are a major cause of crowd levels. Meanwhile, tourists pay a small fortune to stand in long lines with people paying dollars per visit.

In an ideal world, the average price could be somewhere between what a local pays per visit and what an infrequent visitor pays.

 

[RustySpork]

I could buy that, especially in California. Annual passes are arguably under-priced, and are a major cause of crowd levels. Meanwhile, tourists pay a small fortune to stand in long lines with people paying dollars per visit.

In an ideal world, the average price could be somewhere between what a local pays per visit and what an infrequent visitor pays.

It's probably the closest to accurate. The prices will always be too high for some people and too low for those who believe prices should be used for crowd control.