Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[lazyboy97o]

While the percentages do point to the unvaxxed, the shear number of mutations involved in vaxxed persons does not rule them out. Any guess on the number of replications it takes for a mutation to evolve? It just takes the right mutation in the right person to create something new.

The shear number of mutations is greater in the unvaccinated. Being vaccinated doesn’t cause mutations, replication causes mutations.

 

[JoeCamel]

While the percentages do point to the unvaxxed, the shear number of mutations involved in vaxxed persons does not rule them out. Any guess on the number of replications it takes for a mutation to evolve? It just takes the right mutation in the right person to create something new.

I'm pretty sure an asteroid is going to hit the earth someday but my focus is on keeping my day to day safe. I'm still going to do that even if the long shot happens. Work on what you can change not that which might change maybe.
You seem to think in black and white and absolutes, I don't know if you are really that way or you just like raising "but this" theories to negate real threats relieving you of responsibility for doing anything?

 

[LittleBuford]

While the percentages do point to the unvaxxed, the shear number of mutations involved in vaxxed persons does not rule them out. Any guess on the number of replications it takes for a mutation to evolve? It just takes the right mutation in the right person to create something new.

The intent of your posts is very difficult to deduce. Are you trying to say we're setting too much store by the vaccines?

 

[Diamond Dot]

Let's be honest, there has been double standard after double standard by those telling the rest of us what to do in the UK.

My current concern is the return of the compulsary hotel quarantine on the return to the UK. While it's only for arrivals from certain countries at present I read about Richard E Grant's experience and the cost per night. I've stayed at that hotel; and the £218 per night cost is criminal as I paid under £100 including breakfast for a night there. I'm due to travel in March and my concern was getting a test the day before, but, that's sorted out and I'm planning to head down to the Walgreens or CVS by Celebration to do the Day 2 test, unless Disney has a light bulb moment of having a test centre on site for overseas guests, but, the deal breaker will be 10 days quarantining at a hotel that will cost the same as 14 nights at Pop Century, plus another 11 nights at the cattery for my poor cat. Not going to happen.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Update on monoclonal antibodies. The treatment is now authorized for all age groups, for individuals considered "high risk". The article I read was light on specifics, but it seemed to imply that any child below the age of 1 is considered high risk, and the antibody cocktail can be used as a post-exposure prophylactic in certain children (it didn't elaborate). I'm pretty sure prophylactic use has not been approved in adults yet, so that would constitute a significant expansion of the infusion's use.

We're not yet at vaccines for all children (and probably never will be for babies less than 6 months old), but at least now we have treatments for all age groups.

 

[James J]

Let's be honest, there has been double standard after double standard by those telling the rest of us what to do in the UK.

My current concern is the return of the compulsary hotel quarantine on the return to the UK. While it's only for arrivals from certain countries at present I read about Richard E Grant's experience and the cost per night. I've stayed at that hotel; and the £218 per night cost is criminal as I paid under £100 including breakfast for a night there. I'm due to travel in March and my concern was getting a test the day before, but, that's sorted out and I'm planning to head down to the Walgreens or CVS by Celebration to do the Day 2 test, unless Disney has a light bulb moment of having a test centre on site for overseas guests, but, the deal breaker will be 10 days quarantining at a hotel that will cost the same as 14 nights at Pop Century, plus another 11 nights at the cattery for my poor cat. Not going to happen.

The day 2 test is for when you get back to the UK, not in the USA. When you're in the USA, you just need to do a test (PCR or Lat flow) 48 hours before returning to the UK. I'll PM you to explain how it works, as I think you're still a little mixed up.

 

[Communicora]

Update on monoclonal antibodies. The treatment is now authorized for all age groups, for individuals considered "high risk". The article I read was light on specifics, but it seemed to imply that any child below the age of 1 is considered high risk, and the antibody cocktail can be used as a post-exposure prophylactic in certain children (it didn't elaborate). I'm pretty sure prophylactic use has not been approved in adults yet, so that would constitute a significant expansion of the infusion's use.

We're not yet at vaccines for all children (and probably never will be for babies less than 6 months old), but at least now we have treatments for all age groups.

In Minnesota it is theoretically available for prophylactic use in people with certain immune conditions who have been exposed. I wonder how great our supply is though. We don't have clinics like they had in Florida and Texas when their numbers were high.

 

[Heppenheimer]

In Minnesota it is theoretically available for prophylactic use in people with certain immune conditions who have been exposed. I wonder how great our supply is though. We don't have clinics like they had in Florida and Texas when their numbers were high.

That's interesting. Just to check, I pulled up the order set on our EMR, since it has boxes you need to check off for the inclusion criteria. At least here, prophylactic use is not authorized. Whether that's an institution or state-specific rule, I wouldn't know.

I'd like to see if there's any data to back up prophylactic use in adults, because I know it wasn't part of the trial that granted the EUA. I can certainly understand the theoretical benefit of giving antibody infusions to immunosuppressed individuals.

 

[Nubs70]

Being vaccinated doesn’t cause mutations, replication causes mutations.

Does replication within a vaccinated environment result in mutations? Similar to bacterial mutations within an antibiotic infused environment?

How does Covid know how to develop vaccine resistance within a environment not influenced by a vaccine? If the unvaxxed are the source of variants, the shear number of unvaxxed combined with the 18x vume of replication, should we not be seeing an order of magnitude greater number of variants?

 

[lazyboy97o]

Does replication within a vaccinated environment result in mutations? Similar to bacterial mutations within an antibiotic infused environment?

How does Covid know how to develop vaccine resistance within a environment not influenced by a vaccine? If the unvaxxed are the source of variants, the shear number of unvaxxed combined with the 18x vume of replication, should we not be seeing an order of magnitude greater number of variants?

Mutations are not the result of stimuli. They are random occurrences that occur during replication. The virus doesn’t know to develop vaccine resistance, it is a random occurrence. How much a virus is able to change due to mutations varies between viruses, the flu changes significantly over months but others have not changed much as long as they have been known.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Does replication within a vaccinated environment result in mutations? Similar to bacterial mutations within an antibiotic infused environment?

How does Covid know how to develop vaccine resistance within a environment not influenced by a vaccine? If the unvaxxed are the source of variants, the shear number of unvaxxed combined with the 18x vume of replication, should we not be seeing an order of magnitude greater number of variants?

It doesn't know - it's just the luck of the draw. A mutation might help it evade vaccines or might not. But vaccinated people generally fight the virus off sooner if they do catch it, thus giving the virus less opportunity to mutate.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Does replication within a vaccinated environment result in mutations? Similar to bacterial mutations within an antibiotic infused environment?

How does Covid know how to develop vaccine resistance within a environment not influenced by a vaccine? If the unvaxxed are the source of variants, the shear number of unvaxxed combined with the 18x vume of replication, should we not be seeing an order of magnitude greater number of variants?

The others adequately answered the first part of your questions, so I'll answer the highlighted portion, although I can't tell if you're legitimately curious or just being annoyingly contrarian.

We only see the mutations that result in a viable virus and are competitive enough in their infection and replication cycle that they don't become overtaken by another strain. Almost all mutations result in dead-ends, because the change in the mRNA sequence results in defective viral progeny. Some are effectively silent, because they don't result in significant changes to the coded protein structure or function. If even detected, these mutations will usually only get registered in an obscure scientific database, but the if the resulting viruses don't behave differently, they won't receive a variant designation. And the popular press will rightfully pay no attention to them.

Only those extremely rare mutations (or combination of mutations) which result in a functional virus different enough from previous strains and successful enough to get noticed by surveillance testing will receive a greek letter designation.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Does replication within a vaccinated environment result in mutations? Similar to bacterial mutations within an antibiotic infused environment?

How does Covid know how to develop vaccine resistance within a environment not influenced by a vaccine? If the unvaxxed are the source of variants, the shear number of unvaxxed combined with the 18x vume of replication, should we not be seeing an order of magnitude greater number of variants?

Are you a scientist?

 

[Heppenheimer]

Here's a good educated lay person-level summary of why antibiotic resistance is common, but vaccine resistance remains relatively rare:

Why resistance is common in antibiotics, but rare in vaccines

How resistance to drugs originates, and why it’s different for vaccines.

theconversation.com

 

[hopemax]

Does replication within a vaccinated environment result in mutations? Similar to bacterial mutations within an antibiotic infused environment?

How does Covid know how to develop vaccine resistance within a environment not influenced by a vaccine? If the unvaxxed are the source of variants, the shear number of unvaxxed combined with the 18x vume of replication, should we not be seeing an order of magnitude greater number of variants?

COVID doesn’t “know” anything. Errors happen and it either gives the newly mutated virus a competitive advantage or it doesn’t. If it doesn’t, it doesn’t infect enough people to be noticed since no countries are sequencing 100% of infections. A few countries are sequencing 100% of confirmed positive tests. But that only gives a subgroup. Any mutation that presented with illness that went unnoticed by its host and therefore no reason to test would be missed. So yes, there have been many more variants / mutations than we know about. And they died off before we even knew about them because they did not provide a competitive advantage.

Something to think about for all the people who think everyone getting infected with a milder virus will end this. Every infection presents a mutation risk. Not just serious infections. Infecting a billion or more people with a mild virus conveys immunity to all, which has benefits, but it doesn’t stop the chance for mutation. It increases it. If Omicron originated via reverse zoonosis as is a plausible option, it’s theoretically possible some Delta descended mutation is stewing in another animal reservoir which might be more competitive than this, so even if no human mutation occurs future mutations still might. Which results in more rounds of “is immunity holding up?” If the answer stays yes, then some authority will declare Covid endemic and we go on. But with the underlying knowledge that mutation potential still exists to change it and we could get a bad Covid season or epidemic.

As to your first point, comparison to bacteria. It’s like I said before. The natural selection process is against *immunity* not vax vs no vax. Vaccines aren’t providing a different enough environment than natural infection. Strong response vs weak vs not at all is a question… but a virus mutation that doesn’t get destroyed by an antibody doesn’t care if your body learned to produce it via natural infection or vaccination. If you are concerned about this, then you should be working to prevent any infections from occurring which involves those things no one wants to do. This bacteria argument is in favor of zero-Covid which means serious lockdowns. You may think you are trying to make the case against vaccination but that’s not what it means.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

COVID doesn’t “know” anything. Errors happen and it either gives the newly mutated virus a competitive advantage or it doesn’t. If it doesn’t, it doesn’t infect enough people to be noticed since no countries are sequencing 100% of infections. A few countries are sequencing 100% of confirmed positive tests. But that only gives a subgroup. Any mutation that presented with illness that went unnoticed by its host and therefore no reason to test would be missed. So yes, there have been many more variants / mutations than we know about. And they died off before we even knew about them because they did not provide a competitive advantage.

Something to think about for all the people who think everyone getting infected with a milder virus will end this. Every infection presents a mutation risk. Not just serious infections. Infecting a billion or more people with a mild virus conveys immunity to all, which has benefits, but it doesn’t stop the chance for mutation. It increases it. If Omicron originated via reverse zoonosis as is a plausible option, it’s theoretically possible some Delta descended mutation is stewing in another animal reservoir which might be more competitive than this, so even if no human mutation occurs future mutations still might. Which results in more rounds of “is immunity holding up?” If the answer stays yes, then some authority will declare Covid endemic and we go on. But with the underlying knowledge that mutation potential still exists to change it and we could get a bad Covid season or epidemic.

As to your first point, comparison to bacteria. It’s like I said before. The natural selection process is against *immunity* not vax vs no vax. Vaccines aren’t providing a different enough environment than natural infection. Strong response vs weak vs not at all is a question… but a virus mutation that doesn’t get destroyed by an antibody doesn’t care if your body learned to produce it via natural infection or vaccination. If you are concerned about this, then you should be working to prevent any infections from occurring which involves those things no one wants to do. This bacteria argument is in favor of zero-Covid which means serious lockdowns. You may think you are trying to make the case against vaccination but that’s not what it means.

When I first heard Omicron may have originated in an animal it confirmed my belief we’ll never eliminate this and we need to learn to live with it.

Vaccinations are our best defense. They may not “end” the virus but they slow its spread, offer great protection against serious cases, and for the most part prevent death.

Managing it beats doing nothing.

 

[dreday3]

never mind, I don't want the onslaught!

 

[Heppenheimer]

When I first heard Omicron may have originated in an animal it confirmed my belief we’ll never eliminate this and we need to learn to live with it.

Vaccinations are our best defense. They may not “end” the virus but they slow its spread, offer great protection against serious cases, and for the most part prevent death.

Managing it beats doing nothing.

If there's evidence that people can catch COVID from livestock/domestic animals and/or it starts to cause economic damage in the animal husbandry industry, then I suspect we'll eventually have veterinary COVID vaccines. For precedence, one of only two infectious diseases humanity has ever successfully eradicated was rinderpest, which only occurred in animals. Despite having a reservoir that included wild animals, we still managed to eradicate it mainly by vaccinating livestock.

 

[hopemax]

When I first heard Omicron may have originated in an animal it confirmed my belief we’ll never eliminate this and we need to learn to live with it.

Vaccinations are our best defense. They may not “end” the virus but they slow its spread, offer great protection against serious cases, and for the most part prevent death.

Managing it beats doing nothing.

Yep, and here's the thing... We need proof that T-cell and B-cell function remains effective against a wide variety of mutations, because Omicron's early modelling results are showing the NAbs aren't doing much. Which going back to the optimism vs pessimism about is Omicron mild... if Omicron isn't inherently more mild and similar to previous variants, and NAbs have little effect, BUT!!! the resulting illness in people with immunity is mild illness, then that is evidence T-cells and B-cells are doing their job. This is a really important thing to confirm. If Omicron is more milder, than questions about T&B cell function vs numerous mutations remain. People seem to have an idea that since I am unwilling to hope for inherently milder that I must be living in a constant state of worry or fear. But I'm not. I am trusting that the vaccines are doing what we expect and the sooner we have evidence that our bodies can produce an immune response capable of overcoming a variety of mutations then the better of we *really* will be. Mild Omicron means we only know we're good against a mild variant like Omicron.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I have to admit, I'm completely baffled by this conversation. I thought we wanted a mild version of the virus to overtake all other versions. That it would be a good thing. I've read countless articles about it. We don't KNOW yet that this is the case and everyone should be getting vaccinated that can, but it's the hope. Maybe it will end up that way, maybe it won't, but we will know eventually.

But we don't want it to be more mild, or if it is, it doesn't matter?

More mild would be great. It would give our hospital staff a much-needed breather. But just because one strain ends up being mild doesn't mean the next one will follow the same pattern. We want to give this virus the least opportunity to replicate as possible, so that we don't ever see a Π variant.

Although I admit, having a Π variant enter the lexicon would probably result in some interesting English language usage.