Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[MisterPenguin]

I'm guessing this fact isn't being highlighted in New York Times articles or any other national media. Nobody wants to admit that it's just natural cycles and the only real difference between geographic areas is timing.

This was just linked in this thread. So, don't know why you'd say this except as a dig against the NYT...

What Previous Covid-19 Waves Tell Us About the Virus Now (Published 2021)

Looking back at the outbreak so far can provide some clues about how the virus may spread in the future.

www.nytimes.com

Now, just assuming that as a 'cycle' it can't be affected by lockdowns, masks, ventilation upgrades, vaccinations, or even new variants is quite... odd. You want the NYT to come to that conclusion which goes against the scientific consensus?

 

[DisneyFan32]

China Expects New Covid Outbreak to Worsen in Coming Days

 

[DisneyCane]

This was just linked in this thread. So, don't know why you'd say this except as a dig against the NYT...

What Previous Covid-19 Waves Tell Us About the Virus Now (Published 2021)

Looking back at the outbreak so far can provide some clues about how the virus may spread in the future.

www.nytimes.com

Now, just assuming that as a 'cycle' it can't be affected by lockdowns, masks, ventilation upgrades, vaccinations, or even new variants is quite... odd. You want the NYT to come to that conclusion which goes against the scientific consensus?

That article doesn't exactly highlight how low FL cases have gotten. It also basically says that the high vaccination rates in the northeast stopped Delta in its tracks when it is way too early to draw that conclusion.

If you survey random people in NY or NJ about the COVID situation in FL, what percentage would answer that the case rate is the lowest in the country? I bet that at least a plurality think it's still spreading like wildfire and the hospitals are full.

 

[DCBaker]

 

[Nubs70]

Pretty sure the upper Midwest will begin to deteriorate as winter approaches as Southern states will improve and the deteriorate starting next summer.

Viral load in an enclosed environment is the key.

Currently in/near Tulum. Most notable change since 2 years ago is much lower lever of AC in common areas. Looks as if a tradeoff between comfort and air flow. As compared to a trip to WDW, much less close contact at an all inclusive than anywhere at WDW.

 

[Heelz2315]

WOW....and yet masks remain. What is the metric they're (either the Mayor of OC or WDW) looking for to drop the indoor masks? 0% over 14 days? It's barely over 3% now.

 

[DCBaker]

WOW....and yet masks remain. What is the metric they're (either the Mayor of OC or WDW) looking for to drop the indoor masks? 0% over 14 days? It's barely over 3% now.

There is a presser from Demings on Wednesday, the same day he would have to extend the emergency order. It will likely be allowed to expire and be announced that day.

 

[correcaminos]

Why do so many keep bringing up politics? Ugh

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Why do so many keep bringing up politics? Ugh

Unfortunately Covid and politics have become very intertwined.

I’m just thrilled at Florida’s numbers… 3 days til our trip.

We were a little concerned Covid may be bad when we were there and now it’s looking safer than where we live.

 

[Andrew C]

Unfortunately Covid and politics have become very intertwined.

I’m just thrilled at Florida’s numbers… 3 days til our trip.

We were a little concerned Covid may be bad when we were there and now it’s looking safer than where we live.

Have fun!!!

 

[mmascari]

WOW....and yet masks remain. What is the metric they're (either the Mayor of OC or WDW) looking for to drop the indoor masks? 0% over 14 days? It's barely over 3% now.

While I don't know, my personal guess would be WDW is going to follow the CDC guideline. So, while the Positivity looks much better, it's the case rate that hasn't fallen enough yet.

Orange County, Florida

October 25, 2021
Cases	1,018
Case Rate per 100k	73.06
% Positivity	3.8%
Deaths	24
% Eligible Population Fully Vaccinated	71.6%
New Hospital Admissions	137

Where I live, we're following the CDC guideline, and the county wants the Case Rate per 100k under 50 for 7 consecutive days prior to removing the indoor mask mandate. We're open for indoor dining, but other indoor activities require masks. It's about the only mitigation mandated at all. Schools are keeping masks even then, presumably because they trend younger. Next year or maybe spring I suspect that will change.

October 25, 2021
Cases	506
Case Rate per 100k	48.16
% Positivity	2.24%
Deaths	<10
% Eligible Population Fully Vaccinated	90.8%
New Hospital Admissions	30

We're 5 days into it now. Couple more and we'll get there.

Our "% of Population ≥ 12 Years of Age" with "At least One Dose" is also at 99.9%. So, either that 90.8% above will max out in 4 weeks or it's people not coming back for second shots. We've got just over 1M population and are fringe metro instead of central metro for size comparison to Orange county.

If all the metrics in FL looked like us, I would be much more excited for a trip. Of course, not even all the metrics in my state look this good.

 

[correcaminos]

Unfortunately Covid and politics have become very intertwined.

I’m just thrilled at Florida’s numbers… 3 days til our trip.

We were a little concerned Covid may be bad when we were there and now it’s looking safer than where we live.

We are not supposed to talk politics here. I know some have made it intertwined but this thread is not for that! That's my rant. Makes this thread awful to read

I am leaving in less than 3 weeks myself. Last trip was June when numbers were super low.

 

[mmascari]

So to drop them the case rate per 100K needs to be what? below 50?

That's the CDC guideline.

Don't know if that's what Disney will follow or not.

It's certainly possible to reach it though.

 

[Heelz2315]

While I don't know, my personal guess would be WDW is going to follow the CDC guideline. So, while the Positivity looks much better, it's the case rate that hasn't fallen enough yet.

Orange County, Florida

October 25, 2021
Cases	1,018
Case Rate per 100k	73.06
% Positivity	3.8%
Deaths	24
% Eligible Population Fully Vaccinated	71.6%
New Hospital Admissions	137

Where I live, we're following the CDC guideline, and the county wants the Case Rate per 100k under 50 for 7 consecutive days prior to removing the indoor mask mandate. We're open for indoor dining, but other indoor activities require masks. It's about the only mitigation mandated at all. Schools are keeping masks even then, presumably because they trend younger. Next year or maybe spring I suspect that will change.

October 25, 2021
Cases	506
Case Rate per 100k	48.16
% Positivity	2.24%
Deaths	<10
% Eligible Population Fully Vaccinated	90.8%
New Hospital Admissions	30

We're 5 days into it now. Couple more and we'll get there.

Our "% of Population ≥ 12 Years of Age" with "At least One Dose" is also at 99.9%. So, either that 90.8% above will max out in 4 weeks or it's people not coming back for second shots. We've got just over 1M population and are fringe metro instead of central metro for size comparison to Orange county.

If all the metrics in FL looked like us, I would be much more excited for a trip. Of course, not even all the metrics in my state look this good.

I wonder if the case to remove them indoors in OC Florida is the same. Below 50 for 7 consecutive days?

 

[DisneyCane]

While I don't know, my personal guess would be WDW is going to follow the CDC guideline. So, while the Positivity looks much better, it's the case rate that hasn't fallen enough yet.

Orange County, Florida

October 25, 2021
Cases	1,018
Case Rate per 100k	73.06
% Positivity	3.8%
Deaths	24
% Eligible Population Fully Vaccinated	71.6%
New Hospital Admissions	137

Where I live, we're following the CDC guideline, and the county wants the Case Rate per 100k under 50 for 7 consecutive days prior to removing the indoor mask mandate. We're open for indoor dining, but other indoor activities require masks. It's about the only mitigation mandated at all. Schools are keeping masks even then, presumably because they trend younger. Next year or maybe spring I suspect that will change.

October 25, 2021
Cases	506
Case Rate per 100k	48.16
% Positivity	2.24%
Deaths	<10
% Eligible Population Fully Vaccinated	90.8%
New Hospital Admissions	30

We're 5 days into it now. Couple more and we'll get there.

Our "% of Population ≥ 12 Years of Age" with "At least One Dose" is also at 99.9%. So, either that 90.8% above will max out in 4 weeks or it's people not coming back for second shots. We've got just over 1M population and are fringe metro instead of central metro for size comparison to Orange county.

If all the metrics in FL looked like us, I would be much more excited for a trip. Of course, not even all the metrics in my state look this good.

Something is wrong with the vaccination data. Nowhere near 90% of the eligible OC population is fully vaccinated. It's under 75% with one dose.

 

[Heelz2315]

My fear is the CDC has made these goals unachievable, and we'll be stuck in the "we'll get there soon" mentality for a very long time if not years.

 

[mmascari]

Something is wrong with the vaccination data. Nowhere near 90% of the eligible OC population is fully vaccinated. It's under 75% with one dose.

% Eligible Population Fully Vaccinated

71.6%

The second table was my county. It's got way better metrics than OC. CDC has the OC rate at 71.6%

The second table, with my personal county, was included to show what's possible. Before there are 3 pages of posts saying we'll never vaccinate that many people or we'll never get it under 50/100K. We can do all those things. We choose, as a group not every individual posting here, to not get there. It's a choice not a forgone conclusion.

 

[mmascari]

My fear is the CDC has made these goals unachievable, and we'll be stuck in the "we'll get there soon" mentality for a very long time if not years.

What part of the second table showing that where I live is likely 2 days away from getting there wasn't clear?

I'm not sure why everywhere cannot get there. It's a choice.

When I go to spend my vacation dollars (for flights I've already paid for and MUST use by the end of next summer), I want to spend them going someplace with similar (or better) metrics than where I live. And, I really want to go to WDW, since by then most of the new cool stuff will be open.

 

[Heelz2315]

I don’t know how fast that number shrinks. Days/weeks?

 

[MisterPenguin]

My fear is the CDC has made these goals unachievable, and we'll be stuck in the "we'll get there soon" mentality for a very long time if not years.

FL was at 120 cases per 100K just two weeks ago, they're now down to 70. They moved from High to Substantial last week.

Here's where OC is now...

Here's all of FL...

Website to keep track...

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov