Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[sullyinMT]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

FL Hospitalized 17,183, 80/100K.
CA Hospitalized 8,396, 21/100K.

Using Worldometer’s “active cases” for each state (I’m sure there are a couple holes there):
CA (~1.97M)- 0.004 hospitalizations/active infection
FL - (~803k) - 0.02 hospitalizations/active

Even if we take CA’s number of cases in half (a whole lot of counties don’t account for recovery), it rounds to about 0.009 hospitalizations/active.

If we look at the CDC fully vaccinated numbers, CA is 5% of their eligible (12+) population ahead of FL. For 18+, that difference is about 4.5%.

Cali may have a way to go in their way to a current peak, but even a small gap in vaccination acceptance combined with indoor masking appears to be helping for now.

 

[Andrew C]

The implication in the original post was they were just the same. That the actions being done in "not FL" didn't help because they were the same.

It's more like having two kids failing in school, one of them just a little and the other a complete disaster. The one that's just a little is taking actions to reverse direction while the other isn't even trying. Then saying they're the same, so there's no difference between them and the actions the one is taking don't matter.

It's fine to say CA isn't doing great. It's a bad take to say the actions CA is doing to not get worse don't matter because it's already not great and just as bad as FL. It's being used as a way to excuse how bad FL is and justify FL not doing anything.

Ok, maybe your argument is with the original poster then. I am not justifying one thing or another. My thought is that CA needs to not be comfortable and this is as bad as it will get. It is bad enough but the ceiling is high for them. Hospitals need to be ready just in case as we have seen where their numbers can go. I think one thing we have learned is how many states have celebrated prematurely.

 

[Andrew C]

Using Worldometer’s “active cases” for each state (I’m sure there are a couple holes there):
CA (~1.97M)- 0.004 hospitalizations/active infection
FL - (~803k) - 0.02 hospitalizations/active

Even if we take CA’s number of cases in half (a whole lot of counties don’t account for recovery), it rounds to about 0.009 hospitalizations/active.

If we look at the CDC fully vaccinated numbers, CA is 5% of their eligible (12+) population ahead of FL. For 18+, that difference is about 4.5%.

Cali may have a way to go in their way to a current peak, but even a small gap in vaccination acceptance combined with indoor masking appears to be helping for now.

They don't have a statewide indoor mask mandate for all. I think LA county does though...and schools do.

 

[draybook]

Just wanted to add that I root for any team that plays against Bama. The same goes for the Yankees, Cowboys, Lakers, and any other bandwagon sports team.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

What about if it was required to watch a game in the stadium? Would that move the needle?

Btw, 'Bama fans have always impressed this Yankee. They don't seem arrogant or particularly hostile to other schools (perhaps Auburn being an exception). OSU fans could learn a lesson...

British Columbia is seeing a slight bump in vaccination rates, in response to the announcement that proof of vaccination will soon be required to eat in a restaurant, attend a concert or sporting event, and access other leisure activities.

Masks in indoor spaces are back as of yesterday as well, due to cases increasing again.

All this despite COVID numbers below everywhere in the USA, with the exception of Maine. It's amazing how much of the USA seems to have just thrown in the towel.

 

[disneygeek90]

Just wanted to add that I root for any team that plays against Bama. The same goes for the Yankees, Cowboys, Lakers, and any other bandwagon sports team.

Go Yankees

 

[sullyinMT]

They don't have a statewide indoor mask mandate for all. I think LA county does though...and schools do.

Maybe it’s just a perception thing, but I assumed at least CA’s major cities all did. Or, if not officially, businesses there still did.

 

[DisneyCane]

Anyone who has access to the data, how do the hospitalization numbers compare between the two, both raw and per 100K?

Since the delta variant is hospitalizing a younger demographic than in previous waves, we should see proportionally lower deaths totals with this wave, although because death is a lagging indicator, it's still probably too early to use total deaths to compare to previous waves. So, hospitalizations right now might provide the best snapshot of a state to state comparison.

California and Florida might also be difficult to compare simply because their geography is so different. I could be wrong about this, but Florida's population seems less geographically concentrated and a little more evenly dispersed than California , where you have enormous clusters of people in relatively small but disconnected areas and much larger tracts of very sparsely populated territory.

I know in Vermont, in addition to our high vaccine rates, the manner in which geography tends to isolate different regions of the state from each other (and other states from us), has definitely helped keep our COVID numbers manageable.

FL is pretty much one giant, continuous crowded suburb with a few downtowns plopped in from Cutler Bay to West Palm Beach on the southeast coast (around 90 miles). Then the Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville metro areas are sort of isolated population centers. There's still some pretty large swaths of very low population density due to the Everglades, agricultural areas north of the Everglades and the northern parts/panhandle.

It's not exactly like CA for population density but it isn't like comparing FL to Vermont either.

 

[mmascari]

These governors think they are propping up the economy and fighting for individual rights, yet by their actions they are prolonging the pandemic and preventing the economy from recovering. Just look at the recent extremely low crowds at WDW.

Than why are the same type of covid problems occuring in places that had far stricter lock downs and rules. The north east is reversing course and reinstating mandates.

Do you have an example of someplace having the same type of problem as FL or TX?

CA isn't doing that great.

Ok, maybe your argument is with the original poster then. I am not justifying one thing or another.

That was the question you answered though. Conversation posts all included here. They read like this:

1. Preventing people from doing mitigations is bad and doesn't help the long run.
2. States that allow mitigations are just as bad as states that don't. They are the same, so we don't need mitigations.
3. Ask for an example of a state that's just as bad.
4. Answer - CA is just as bad.

The context was, CA is just as bad as FL, that CA allowing mitigations doesn't have any impact, and that means it doesn't matter that FL is preventing mitigation measures.

If that's not what you meant, and that CA just isn't doing well, it wasn't communicated well in the post with no extra information.

My thought is that CA needs to not be comfortable and this is as bad as it will get. It is bad enough but the ceiling is high for them. Hospitals need to be ready just in case as we have seen where their numbers can go. I think one thing we have learned is how many states have celebrated prematurely.

CA definitely needs to keep doing actions to reduce the impact and spread, to get it under control. Fortunately, the state hasn't told localities that they're not allowed to implement mitigation measures.

 

[Andrew C]

Maybe it’s just a perception thing, but I assumed at least CA’s major cities all did. Or, if not officially, businesses there still did.

I bet a bunch of businesses do. And it’s required in transportation i believe.

 

[DisneyCane]

Using Worldometer’s “active cases” for each state (I’m sure there are a couple holes there):
CA (~1.97M)- 0.004 hospitalizations/active infection
FL - (~803k) - 0.02 hospitalizations/active

Even if we take CA’s number of cases in half (a whole lot of counties don’t account for recovery), it rounds to about 0.009 hospitalizations/active.

If we look at the CDC fully vaccinated numbers, CA is 5% of their eligible (12+) population ahead of FL. For 18+, that difference is about 4.5%.

Cali may have a way to go in their way to a current peak, but even a small gap in vaccination acceptance combined with indoor masking appears to be helping for now.

Looking at Oregon, they have a similar vaccination rate to FL (both slightly lower than CA) with mitigation strategies similar to CA but a more rural state than FL (or CA). Oregon is having the highest case numbers that they've had so far in the pandemic. Oregon's 7 day rolling average is about half per capita what Florida is but it is unknown if either state has peaked yet.

The biggest difference between CA and OR is that CA has a slightly higher vaccination rate. It appears that the vaccination rate is the factor that has the most impact on keeping the numbers down out of the factors that are controllable. It seems that even a small difference in vaccination rate can make a significant difference in case rate.

 

[Andrew C]

If that's not what you meant, and that CA just isn't doing well, it wasn't communicated well in the post with no extra information.

I feel like you are just looking for a fight. But fine.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Not sure how many saw this a couple weeks ago when it came out:

What we now know about how to fight the delta variant of COVID | Column

An expert explains why vaccines — and masks — are so important, and why delta is different and more dangerous.

www.tampabay.com

This is a quick easy read, but very important. It really breaks down simply why vaccines AND masks are important.

 

[wendysue]

Mandatory mask mandate indoors everywhere in Illinois starting Monday. Mandate for all PreK - 12 teachers and staff to have vaccines starting Sept. 5 or weekly/daily testing depending on school district. Won't change for us, as we still wear our masks when shopping etc anyway, but some people are pretty mad about it. Of course, they won't get vaccines either and a few I know have said that they do not care if they spread covid. It is so sad how many families and friends have been torn apart by this political bull****. We even have an extended family member who has mentioned that the vaccine could cause some kind of zombie issue...I could do nothing but laugh, so now thankfully, he doesn't talk to us anymore.

 

[mmascari]

I feel like you are just looking for a fight. But fine.

I'm not looking for a fight. But, I'm super tired of the posts that basically say "Nothing matters, it is what it is, can't we all just call it over?" While ignoring that it's not freaking over yet and there's so much more we could be doing to make it over. In some instances we're actively doing the reverse and taking actions that will make it take longer to end.

I will jump on those posts as presenting a disingenuous bad faith comparison as justification that there's nothing else we can do and nothing we do matters.

In this case, you didn't mean it, but you totally answered the question. You answered that it didn't matter and was bad everywhere with something that isn't the same and actually shows that it does matter. When you don't mean that, don't give that answer. At least give it some extra context to show that's not really what you mean.

It's like the other poster who just posts graphs of other random states with no context about what they mean at all. In a WDW forum that's concentrated on FL, without any context, they read as "see it's bad everywhere, FL is fine".

 

[Heppenheimer]

FL is pretty much one giant, continuous crowded suburb with a few downtowns plopped in from Cutler Bay to West Palm Beach on the southeast coast (around 90 miles). Then the Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville metro areas are sort of isolated population centers. There's still some pretty large swaths of very low population density due to the Everglades, agricultural areas north of the Everglades and the northern parts/panhandle.

It's not exactly like CA for population density but it isn't like comparing FL to Vermont either.

That's kind of what I was getting at. The Bay region and Los Angeles are absolutely jam packed with people, but in between you have long stretches that are rather sparsely populated. Florida's geography offers far less protection, so the governor's choice of banning mandates seems even more absurd.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

FL Hospitalized 17,183, 80/100K.
CA Hospitalized 8,396, 21/100K.

Yep, not close.

 

[Andrew C]

You answered that it didn't matter and was bad everywhere with something that isn't the same and actually shows that it does matter.

I gave no such answer. That’s how you interpreted it. Like I said. It’s fine.

 

[Andrew C]

It's like the other poster who just posts graphs of other random states with no context about what they mean at all. In a WDW forum that's concentrated on FL, without any context, they read as "see it's bad everywhere, FL is fine"

Was that me too?

 

[Bob Harlem]

Although Florida has more or less peaked other areas outside the south still haven't and places like Australia and to a lesser degree New Zealand are rising quite rapidly despite lockdowns.