Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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sullyinMT

Well-Known Member
We also have alot of open space in Texas. I would guess that kept transmission down out in the rural areas for longer than normal.
I’ve really only spent significant time in the DFW area as a student in Dallas Children’s, and in rural west TX where my wife was born. But even though Dallas is HUGE, I was shocked at how spread out it was. Still relatively easy to get personal space. Even though Dallas is more dense than Atlanta (city proper), it feels quite the opposite, imo.
 

CosmicRays

Well-Known Member
I’ve really only spent significant time in the DFW area as a student in Dallas Children’s, and in rural west TX where my wife was born. But even though Dallas is HUGE, I was shocked at how spread out it was. Still relatively easy to get personal space. Even though Dallas is more dense than Atlanta (city proper), it feels quite the opposite, imo.
Yep, I have never really felt cramped in any Urban area in Texas except maybe downtown Houston. Get out west of I35 and you can go for miles without seeing a soul.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
yeah...still the wrong stance. But “you do you”
To date, 82% of COVID fatalities and 54% of COVID hospitalizations in FL residents were people 65+ which represent 14% of cases. 31% of FL resident COVID fatalities were residents of long term care facilities which represent 4% of cases.

How is not not abundantly clear that the highest risk of serious outcomes from COVID is, by far, to people 65 and over?

Of course there is a risk to people under 65 that gets higher the older you are. However, if people 65 and older had a magic natural immunity to COVID before the beginning of 2020, it wouldn't have become an issue in the minds of the vast majority of people.

Nationwide, we would have had around 120k deaths in over a year vs. 600k+.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
To date, 82% of COVID fatalities and 54% of COVID hospitalizations in FL residents were people 65+ which represent 14% of cases. 31% of FL resident COVID fatalities were residents of long term care facilities which represent 4% of cases.

How is not not abundantly clear that the highest risk of serious outcomes from COVID is, by far, to people 65 and over?

Of course there is a risk to people under 65 that gets higher the older you are. However, if people 65 and older had a magic natural immunity to COVID before the beginning of 2020, it wouldn't have become an issue in the minds of the vast majority of people.

Nationwide, we would have had around 120k deaths in over a year vs. 600k+.
So how many did we have?

so duct taping old people in their house was your plan?
Have you mastered peeing up that rope yet?
 

hopemax

Well-Known Member
To date, 82% of COVID fatalities and 54% of COVID hospitalizations in FL residents were people 65+ which represent 14% of cases. 31% of FL resident COVID fatalities were residents of long term care facilities which represent 4% of cases.

How is not not abundantly clear that the highest risk of serious outcomes from COVID is, by far, to people 65 and over?

Of course there is a risk to people under 65 that gets higher the older you are. However, if people 65 and older had a magic natural immunity to COVID before the beginning of 2020, it wouldn't have become an issue in the minds of the vast majority of people.

Nationwide, we would have had around 120k deaths in over a year vs. 600k+.
You can't just erase the over 65 death rate and then say that's what the number would have been. We would have called it a bad flu, and not have instituted mitigation procedures. Then it would have spread farther and faster than it did resulting in millions of more cases before the vaccine went into use. A consistent percentage of deaths in the under-65 population occur, and if you multiply that out in 50 million cases or 100 million cases instead of 30 million cases there would be a higher raw total among younger people. Also, the smaller percentage of case --> deaths might have removed the impetus for Warp Speed, and we might not even have a vaccine, or the vaccination rates we have at this point, so even more risk of variants and infections. More infections X consistent death rate (even though it is smaller for <65 than 65+) = more deaths for that cohort.
 
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...another challenger looking for a shot at the title. 🥊
Variants are of concern because of biology...they have the POTENTIAL to cause problems. Doesn’t mean it’s a guarantee...but that doesn’t mean you ignore it.

public
Health
Policy
I'm not saying ignore them. Track them, study them, but make public policy decisions based on confirmed threats, not potential threats. That's me looking at this through a systems engineering window.
 

Epcotfan21

Well-Known Member
To date, 82% of COVID fatalities and 54% of COVID hospitalizations in FL residents were people 65+ which represent 14% of cases. 31% of FL resident COVID fatalities were residents of long term care facilities which represent 4% of cases.

How is not not abundantly clear that the highest risk of serious outcomes from COVID is, by far, to people 65 and over?

Of course there is a risk to people under 65 that gets higher the older you are. However, if people 65 and older had a magic natural immunity to COVID before the beginning of 2020, it wouldn't have become an issue in the minds of the vast majority of people.

Nationwide, we would have had around 120k deaths in over a year vs. 600k+.
Please don't bring well documented facts into this argument.
 

ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
I'm not saying ignore them. Track them, study them, but make public policy decisions based on confirmed threats, not potential threats. That's me looking at this through a systems engineering window.
The problem with taking that approach with a virus is that by the time it's a confirmed threat, it's already too late...which is EXACTLY why we're where we are right now in a pandemic.
 
Dropping state mask mandates didn’t mean no Covid mitigations. Many businesses continued their same policies. From friends and co-workers I know in the Houston area not much changed when the gov dropped masks. Most businesses continued to require them as well as most employers. That hadn’t started to change until recently with the new CDC rules for fully vaccinated. That’s part of the answer.

We also have 3 highly effective vaccines and 56% of the adult population in TX has been vaccinated with one. As @Abs pointed out above the urban centers in TX are even higher than the state average and that’s where population density comes into play. So when you combine the vaccination rate with the natural infections there’s a high level of immunity there even though the state level is below the national average. That’s the other part of the answer.

The biggest risk is there are pockets where large numbers of people are unvaccinated that could result in a localized outbreak. I am hopeful that at this point we are far enough along that a statewide spike won’t be long lived or dramatic if it happens. I will feel better about that if/when we get some more people vaccinated. Keeping my fingers crossed🤞
Texas was hit hard after we opened up in September. Anecdotal for sure, but I know a lot of people who got sick but didn't get tested. Likely a result of Texas culture, don't need to go to the doc unless necessary - "I don't need a test to know I'm sick or have Covid."

The only thing that has really affected Covid is immunity (whether through natural means or vaccination)

Side note: I have both forms of immunity
 
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ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
Texas was hit hard after we opened up in September. Anecdotal for sure, but I know a lot of people who got sick but didn't get tested. Likely a result of Texas culture, don't need to go to the doc unless necessary - "I don't need a test to know I'm sick or have Covid."
That's a huge shame. During a public health emergency, the more accurate the data collected is, the better.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
The thing helping Texas is that the big cities have a pretty high vaccination rate. As of May 22nd 54% of Houstonians (not sure if this is adults or total population) have had at least their first shot. 45.5% are fully vaccinated. 96.4% of adults over 60 have had at least their first shot. I imagine this is similar to Austin, San Antonio, and Dallas. The big cities are really doing pretty well. It's the rural areas that bring the state averages down significantly. I imagine this will eventually be a problem but I guess we will see.

thank you...I didn’t do the research...but I would have guessed exactly what you said.

that also lines up with what they’ve seen in Texas demographically on “other” charts...the urban areas are where the people are and they act differently.
 
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Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I'm not saying ignore them. Track them, study them, but make public policy decisions based on confirmed threats, not potential threats. That's me looking at this through a systems engineering window.

ok...fair.

you’re not a hoaxer...we still have them hanging around...

...trying to disguise themselves by throwing strawmen discussions.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
You can't just erase the over 65 death rate and then say that's what the number would have been. We would have called it a bad flu, and not have instituted mitigation procedures. Then it would have spread father and faster than it did resulting in millions of more cases before the vaccine went into use. A consistent percentage of deaths in the under-65 population occur, and if you multiply that out in 50 million cases or 100 million cases instead of 30 million cases there would be a higher raw total among younger people. Also, the smaller percentage of case --> deaths might have removed the impetus for Warp Speed, and we might not even have a vaccine, or the vaccination rates we have at this point, so even more risk of variants and infections. More infections X consistent death rate (even though it is smaller for <65 than 65+) = more deaths for that cohort.

Valid points.
 
ok...fair.

you’re not a hoaxer...we still have them hanging around...

...trying to disguise themselves by throwing strawmen discussions.
I'm not a hoaxer at all, but I'm also not an alarmist.

There have been plenty of things we should have done better, plenty of things we did right, and plenty of things we did that were ineffective or pointless. I feel we should be able to discuss these like adults.

But I see the U.S. at least, at the point where the system is in a positive reinforcement loop. Opening back up is highly unlikely to disrupt the system again. Since societal risk is likely no longer a factor, it comes down to personal risk assessment now.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I'm not a hoaxer at all, but I'm also not an alarmist.

There have been plenty of things we should have done better, plenty of things we did right, and plenty of things we did that were ineffective or pointless.

But I see the U.S. at least, at the point where the system is in a positive reinforcement loop. Opening back up is highly unlikely to disrupt the system again.

oh I don’t disagree...

but I think the reason is because they held out long enough to get the “shields” up...and that’s still with a bunch of blunders...

and that was probably the whole point. Just to buy time and get the distribution system some time.

we have two schools of thought in all these debates:
1. Adults are “adults” and you should tell them everything
2. Humans are animals...and they’re stupid.

guess which school I have a PhD in?
 

CosmicRays

Well-Known Member
Texas was hit hard after we opened up in September. Anecdotal for sure, but I know a lot of people who got sick but didn't get tested. Likely a result of Texas culture, don't need to go to the doc unless necessary - "I don't need a test to know I'm sick or have Covid."

The only thing that has really affected Covid is immunity (whether through natural means or vaccination)

Side note: I have both forms of immunity
I can attest to this attitude as well down here. The doctor is a last resort for almost everyone I know personally and have been around.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Texas was hit hard after we opened up in September. Anecdotal for sure, but I know a lot of people who got sick but didn't get tested. Likely a result of Texas culture, don't need to go to the doc unless necessary - "I don't need a test to know I'm sick or have Covid."

The only thing that has really affected Covid is immunity (whether through natural means or vaccination)

Side note: I have both forms of immunity
Yeah, back in the Fall/Winter everyone got hit with wave 2. I don’t think that was 100% linked to re-opening anything just the nature of the beast at a time before we had vaccines. The other poster was talking specifically about dropping the state wide mask mandates in March.

I don’t disagree on the immunity part. When we had no vaccines there was little hope of reaching a high enough natural immune level quickly enough. Now that we have the vaccines it’s a matter of when not if. Great stuff 🥳🥳🥳
 

crawale

Well-Known Member
Can someone explain why the deaths of people who have been vaccinated are now differentiated as dying WITH COVID and dying OF COVID yet for a year deaths were not differentiated between the two types? Had there been a consistent differentiation would the number of 'COVID' deaths be a lot less?
 

Parker in NYC

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Can someone explain why the deaths of people who have been vaccinated are now differentiated as dying WITH COVID and dying OF COVID yet for a year deaths were not differentiated between the two types? Had there been a consistent differentiation would the number of 'COVID' deaths be a lot less?
They can be whatever number people advocate for them to be.
 
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