Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[havoc315]

I was thinking earlier that the young adult resistance/ambivalence is a huge problem with the goal of vaccine induced herd immunity. Whatever percent of the population is calculated to need immunity to reach herd immunity, the calculation is based on a roughly random sampling. If the number for COVID is 70% (it could be higher or lower, I don't know), the assumption is that the virus only has 30% of the population to spread to and it is unlikely that an infected person comes into contact in a way that they can transmit it with one of the 30% not immune.

However, with the vaccination rate being so varied by age, I don't think it will work because for most situations where spread is likely to occur, people are having close contact with others that are near their age. College students don't typically invite their grandparents to frat parties.

If you end up with 70% of the population vaccinated but if under 30 is only at 35%, there will not be herd immunity in the under 30 population who spends a lot of time with each other. Based on the trends to date, it will take a really successful outreach program to get the under 30 crowd anywhere near the required percentage vaccinated.

I'd say this is roughly accurate: To reach herd immunity, you need immunity spread pretty evenly through the herd. That means across societal groups, including geographic and age.
While it might be possible to reach herd immunity without vaccinating children (who already are less likely to transmit the disease), you aren't going to reach it in localities that only have 30% vaccination rates. It's going to be difficult to reach it if you have a workplace where only 30% of the employees are vaccinated.

I suspect we may see a false sense of security by late summer/fall. Cases will have declined massively due to both vaccines and seasonal effects. Everyone will think they are out of the woods. And I don't think we will see a massive surge like fall 2020, but I think you'll have some very significant local outbreaks in communities with low vaccine uptake. And large local outbreaks could spread to become small surges in places with decent vaccine uptake.

 

[Chi84]

As for someone that just got back from 9 nights, I was surprised at the mask wearing though.. I think I saw 2 people the whole week lower their mask. I was pleasantly surprised.

Im more than surprised. I find that completely incredible.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Im more than surprised. I find that completely incredible.

I went in with the lowest of expectations. Sometimes human kind can surprise I guess when you don’t expect it.

 

[DisneyFan32]

I'd say this is roughly accurate: To reach herd immunity, you need immunity spread pretty evenly through the herd. That means across societal groups, including geographic and age.
While it might be possible to reach herd immunity without vaccinating children (who already are less likely to transmit the disease), you aren't going to reach it in localities that only have 30% vaccination rates. It's going to be difficult to reach it if you have a workplace where only 30% of the employees are vaccinated.

I suspect we may see a false sense of security by late summer/fall. Cases will have declined massively due to both vaccines and seasonal effects. Everyone will think they are out of the woods. And I don't think we will see a massive surge like fall 2020, but I think you'll have some very significant local outbreaks in communities with low vaccine uptake. And large local outbreaks could spread to become small surges in places with decent vaccine uptake.

Maybe not by months as the people may getting more vaccinating as Biden will may force anti vaxxers to know that vaccines is safe as they will getting vaccinating so there may be no spikes or surges by fall/winter this year. We need TO speed up vaccinating people very fast by months so we have to do it as to end the pandemic in America as we know it! We need to herd immunity by fall/winter! Also I think Biden will told everyone during summer, that they will not out of the woods yet until late summer or fall.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I'd say this is roughly accurate: To reach herd immunity, you need immunity spread pretty evenly through the herd. That means across societal groups, including geographic and age.
While it might be possible to reach herd immunity without vaccinating children (who already are less likely to transmit the disease), you aren't going to reach it in localities that only have 30% vaccination rates. It's going to be difficult to reach it if you have a workplace where only 30% of the employees are vaccinated.

I suspect we may see a false sense of security by late summer/fall. Cases will have declined massively due to both vaccines and seasonal effects. Everyone will think they are out of the woods. And I don't think we will see a massive surge like fall 2020, but I think you'll have some very significant local outbreaks in communities with low vaccine uptake. And large local outbreaks could spread to become small surges in places with decent vaccine uptake.

On your last, I think you nailed it. I don't want to feel this way...I want to believe everyone will do the right thing, but we've been shown over and over throughout the pandemic that some just won't.

(For those who love to accuse people of being afraid, this isn't a fear thing. This is a wanting to be realistic thing.)

 

[DisneyFan32]

@ImperfectPixie is by fall and winter this year as we will may herd immunity as many people are vaccinated by October, November, December, January 2022 and February 2022. There will be not huge spike or surges, also there will be no spikes/surges anymore? As masks and social distancing will be gone forever?

 

[havoc315]

On your last, I think you nailed it. I don't want to feel this way...I want to believe everyone will do the right thing, but we've been shown over and over throughout the pandemic that some just won't.

(For those who love to accuse people of being afraid, this isn't a fear thing. This is a wanting to be realistic thing.)

My county is 54% vaccinated already... we will likely exceed 60% in the coming weeks. We also had high rates of infection (we were 1 of the original hot spots). So on a personal level, I feel my community is protected from any future massive surge.

But for example.... Alabama is down to 300 cases per day, from a high of over 4,000 cases per day. Vaccines are contributing but it's likely more seasonal and other factors. Only 33% of the population has received a vaccine dose.. they will likely top off at under 40%. I suspect there are parts of Alabama that are higher and parts that are lower -- probably some towns well under 25-30%.
It's doubtful they will return to 4,000 cases per day, but it's easy to imagine them spiking back up to 1,000, 2,000 cases per day at some point. And it's easy to imagine those cases bleeding in to near by states and spreading with travel to cause blips in places with decent vaccination rates.

I hope we hit true nationwide herd immunity and Covid is basically gone by fall. But I suspect and fear that we will have regional and local outbreaks that are not insignificant.

 

[Jrb1979]

On your last, I think you nailed it. I don't want to feel this way...I want to believe everyone will do the right thing, but we've been shown over and over throughout the pandemic that some just won't.

(For those who love to accuse people of being afraid, this isn't a fear thing. This is a wanting to be realistic thing.)

To add on to that, IMO seeing in a lot of places the good enough attitude it's bound to happen in the fall. I love the optimism from many for normalcy but til the whole country is 70% vaccinated you will continue to have spikes in different parts of the country. Good enough is not going enough.

@ImperfectPixie is by fall and winter this year as we will may herd immunity as many people are vaccinated by October, November, December, January 2022 and February 2022. There will be not huge spike or surges, also there will be no spikes/surges anymore? As masks and social distancing will be gone forever?

Masks and social distancing will be gone but you will have spikes and surges in a lot of pockets of the US where vaccination percentages is just good enough.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

@ImperfectPixie is by fall and winter this year as we will may herd immunity as many people are vaccinated by October, November, December, January 2022 and February 2022. There will be not huge spike or surges, also there will be no spikes/surges anymore? As masks and social distancing will be gone forever?

There will NOT be huge spikes like there were last year. What we're talking about is smaller rises in cases in areas where people just don't want to be vaccinated. We don't know for a fact that they will happen at all, but it's possible.

 

[DisneyFan32]

To add on to that, IMO seeing in a lot of places the good enough attitude it's bound to happen in the fall. I love the optimism from many for normalcy but til the whole country is 70% vaccinated you will continue to have spikes in different parts of the country. Good enough is not going enough.


Masks and social distancing will be gone but you will have spikes and surges in a lot of pockets of the US where vaccination percentages is just good enough.

What about the pandemic will end in USA soon too? Will I'll get a COVID-19 by fall/winter if I'm vaccinated?

 

[GaBoy]

I think this will be the norm for a while. counties pop up with a rash of cases. You see the hot little county to the west. Probably a large family gathering, funeral, etc...
That was some of our worse early deaths, funerals of all things and in small rural counties. Then, mostly around the Atlanta Metro just because of higher pop density I assume.
I think the positive case count is around 5.1% right now overall.

 

[Jrb1979]

What about the pandemic will end in USA soon too? Will I'll get a COVID-19 by fall/winter if I'm vaccinated?

I don't think it's going to truly end as I think Covid is here to stay like the Flu is. Your chances of getting Covid are low if you are vaccinated.

 

[DisneyFan32]

I don't think it's going to truly end as I think Covid is here to stay like the Flu is. Your chances of getting Covid are low if you are vaccinated.

Then masks and social distancing....FOREVER for years.... But the pandemic WILL end in America this year but the pandemic will continue on worldwide. @ImperfectPixie

 

[Jrb1979]

Then masks and social distancing....FOREVER for years.... But the pandemic WILL end in America this year but the pandemic will continue on worldwide.

Masks and social distancing will be gone just we will learn to live with Covid. Til the rest of the world catches up with the vaccine it will continue.

 

[DisneyCane]

To add on to that, IMO seeing in a lot of places the good enough attitude it's bound to happen in the fall. I love the optimism from many for normalcy but til the whole country is 70% vaccinated you will continue to have spikes in different parts of the country. Good enough is not going enough.


Masks and social distancing will be gone but you will have spikes and surges in a lot of pockets of the US where vaccination percentages is just good enough.

At some point it stops being a public health crisis and "good enough" is good enough. In the event a variant shows up that the vaccines aren't highly effective against, it could become a public health crisis again.

However, at this point in the US, anybody who wants to be vaccinated can get started (or finished depending on if they get J&J) in a day. They can be "fully vaccinated" based on the CDC definition by the middle of June.

By that time, the vast majority of cases (probably 90% or more) will be people who chose not to be vaccinated and 99% of the fatalities will be people who chose not to be vaccinated. Once extremely effective protection from a disease is available to anybody who wants it, it is no longer a public health crisis, it's a private health issue.

 

[GoofGoof]

Had another family discussion about the vaccine. My family all had COVID last august with mild to moderate symptoms. Some in my family are hesitant getting the vaccine. Reasoning is if there is long term effects and believing that we all have the antibodies. Doing some research online in regards to antibodies from getting COVID seems to be “Not sure how long antibodies last”. Brother is saying to wait until end of year to see if any negative effects show from the vaccine. Others say to wait until scientifically it is proven that antibodies are only temporary from getting COVID and then to get the vaccine. I am going back and forth between getting it ASAP for the greater good as we are being told vs waiting. The problem is I can’t find enough facts against the “wait, not yet” camp of thinking other then “get it for the greater good”. That’s not enough to change the mind of a family who got covid,and got through it (thank God).
This is real situations that people are grappling with.

I don’t know if this helps, but you could try sharing this information. The second half of the attached article talks about a study done that shows that antibodies from natural infection are stronger if you are older and/or if you had a more serious infection. 100% of the people hospitalized with Covid had detectable antibodies after a year but that wasn’t true for the younger crowd that had mild covid. It’s only one study, but it’s definitive proof that at least in this limited sample natural antibodies may not be enough especially if you are young and/or had mild covid. I shared this with a friend who had Covid back in January and hadn’t gotten the vaccine yet and they have an appointment now for later this week. It can’t hurt to share it.

Here is the relevant section:
Some COVID-19 survivors infected early in the pandemic still have detectable antibodies against the virus a year later, according to a new study. U.S. doctors collected blood samples from 250 patients, including 58 who had been hospitalized for COVID-19 and 192 who had not required hospitalization. Six-to-10 months after diagnosis, all of the former inpatients and 95% of the outpatients still had neutralizing antibodies, according to a report posted on Sunday on medRxiv ahead of peer review. In the small subset of those followed for a full year, 8-of-8 people who had been hospitalized still had antibodies, as did 9-of-11 former outpatients. Antibody levels at the time of follow-up were correlated with age and with COVID-19 severity. Older age was linked with higher neutralizing antibody levels, whereas levels were "lower and more variable" in participants under age 65 who experienced less severe COVID-19 and did not require hospitalization, the researchers reported. They said vaccination of COVID-19 survivors "would be prudent" because vaccine-induced protection against the virus will likely be more long-lived than antibodies induced by mild COVID-19.

Antibody drug neutralizes virus variants in lab study; COVID-19 antibodies detectable 12 months after infection

The following is a roundup of some of the latest scientific studies on the novel coronavirus and efforts to find treatments and vaccines for COVID-19, the illness caused by the virus. An experimental monoclonal antibody treatment for COVID-19 being developed by Eli Lilly and Co and AbCellera...

www.yahoo.com

 

[Parker in NYC]

View attachment 554882

I think this will be the norm for a while. counties pop up with a rash of cases. You see the hot little county to the west. Probably a large family gathering, funeral, etc...
That was some of our worse early deaths, funerals of all things and in small rural counties. Then, mostly around the Atlanta Metro just because of higher pop density I assume.
I think the positive case count is around 5.1% right now overall.

The irony is obviously lost on these... people.

 

[Parker in NYC]

There is no reason not to have The Beauty and the Beast show back at DHS. There is no need for temp checks. WDW can safely increase dining capacity — they are currently spacing tables far more than 6’.

Isn't that more of an Equity issue?

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Then masks and social distancing....FOREVER for years.... But the pandemic WILL end in America this year but the pandemic will continue on worldwide. @ImperfectPixie

No masks and social distancing for years...don't worry about that at all.

There's no way we can get rid of the virus completely - but we WILL get it down to manageable levels. If you've been vaccinated, you've got nothing to worry about.

 

[DisneyFan32]

At some point it stops being a public health crisis and "good enough" is good enough. In the event a variant shows up that the vaccines aren't highly effective against, it could become a public health crisis again.

However, at this point in the US, anybody who wants to be vaccinated can get started (or finished depending on if they get J&J) in a day. They can be "fully vaccinated" based on the CDC definition by the middle of June.

By that time, the vast majority of cases (probably 90% or more) will be people who chose not to be vaccinated and 99% of the fatalities will be people who chose not to be vaccinated. Once extremely effective protection from a disease is available to anybody who wants it, it is no longer a public health crisis, it's a private health issue.

Yeah I'm scared of new variants in the future, we will may never get back to normal if vaccines aren't working against new variants in the future. We will may start over for years...masks and social distancing will be forever as pandemic will forever in USA for years...@GoofGoof