Lora Baines Bradley
Well-Known Member
I’m currently in Uni dorms, and i can’t even imagine going to social events if I tested positive. How selfish and awful.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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Andrew C
You know what's funny?
How?
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
Trends are also important. You just have to look at the reaction of the countries to know they are worried. So who is overstating their spike?
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
New York is below 1% and things are still closed or under major restrictions. So what’s going to be good enough for some before everything can reopen? A vaccine distribution, I imagine.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
They have an increase in cases that’s not in dispute. What’s overstated is how that relates to the situation in the US. The narrative that cases going up in Europe is somehow proof that there’s nothing we can do here.
I think the impacts are enough larger than the flu that it will have a lasting impact if we never manage to contain it. Commercial real estate back office space (which could be done anyway). Large parts of the service economy around experiences. There's just less experiences people will be willing to do.
There's lots of stuff where the cost/scale trade off means having lots of people or there's no way to make them profitable. How much does a football game ticket need to cost if instead of one seat you have to pay the cost for a quarter section? Can they sell enough to even make that math work?
The same kind of questions for WDW. Have we seen a quarterly report that includes all time when open at reduced capacity? Do we know if they're making money, breaking even, or just losing less than being closed would lose?
Other new things will come up too. Mask making replaced other clothing work. New small scale experiences. New tutoring and small scale teaching centers.
We were already seeing take out only restaurants, at least in areas with high delivery concentration.
Some things will make the transition, others will not. It'll be rough for many.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
I don’t understand what you’re suggesting we do here outside of better with testing and contact tracing?
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Chi84
Premium Member
Either that, or the absence of a huge spike in cases in the fall with its combination of regular flu season and schools reopening. I get the feeling that people heard at the start that there would be a "second wave" in the fall and are waiting to see what happens before opening up much more. Just a possibility.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
Ok. That’s good for me. No issues there.
I haven't been following NY close enough to know how solid that below 1% is, or how far below.
Are they way below?
Are they just barely holding it below while stressing the test and trace infrastructure?
Is there enough travel in and out of NY that it's impacting there ability to get any lower?
Do they think that removing restrictions will cause a rise?
What's the % where we know there are not infectious people that haven't been found?
I don't know what the magic number is, only that it's low, really low. We also know, from the early infection tracing that a single spreader can cause a huge outbreak if it's not caught.
My guess is that's the calculations going on in NY. A balance of how much they feel they have contained all infections vs how fragile that containment is.
Didn't someone (maybe you?) post about them relaxing some restrictions? Not "relaxing" them in general, but going form "extremely restricted" to "mostly restricted". A first step to see if they really have it under control or if even a slight relaxing is more than the public health infrastructure can manage.
Wear. A. Mask. Everyone.
The tri-state area had the huge and scary spikes, so, our shutdowns were severe. Messaging was often and clear. There were fines for violators. So, the people in the tri-state area knew: you wear a mask. People were yelled at and shamed in grocery stores for not wearing masks. Essential services basically hired bouncers to keep the maskless out. We did what WDW is doing. And this is the result...
NJ's R-nought has been hovering a little above and below R1.
You keep it below R1 and the virus goes away because each infected person isn't infecting one or more other people. This allows contact tracing to contain isolated flare-ups.
NJ let restaurants open at 25% capacity already (NYC is soon to follow). Contact information is required in case contact tracing needs to be done.
New York is opening. The state ahead of NYC. Each stage of opening requires the two weeks of good stats which the Federal government at one time said everyone should be following before moving to the next phase (and Florida and many states almost never did).
Where did you get this from?
Any chance one of the sites makes it easy and just lists this stat for every state?
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
But they aren’t really. Particularly NYC. Just watch how the fall unfolds after September 30th.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
This didn’t stop Europe from having their recent surge in cases. You can’t mask your way out of this. It can be very helpful. But it isn’t the end all, be all as some want to make it out to be.
also both California and Texas have statewide mask mandates. In Florida, it is at more local levels. All three states have been on a similar path.
Vaccine or bust. No government this late in the game will risk the negative scrutiny and accountability of relaxing restrictions prior to the arrival of a vaccine. Unfortunately, the type of society/world we live in will not allow for any type of flexibility regardless of the statistics or science, just my opinion. Once a vaccine arrives, everyone is going start taking the handcuffs off relatively quickly to salvage their economical interests. I stick by what I've always said, mid to late 2021 we will be as close to if not back to normal (and the recent headlines are now starting to hint the same).
Out of curiosity, when is Disney going to place tickets/packages on sale for late 2021 (i.e. the 50th?). it's almost a year away, people need to plan and place some future optimism in their lives.
Current R0 is 1.08 found on this page:
Story Map Series
This story map was created with the Story Map Series application in ArcGIS Online.
The governor's chart of R0 over time shows up in his daily videos...
I keep seeing pictures from Europe with crowds without masks. UK just had to re-mandate them with taking a step backwards in re-opening.
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