oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
remember when no one showing up to GE was the biggest problem
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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Horizons '83
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
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I genuinely wish we were in those days, debating ride systems, park demand and new attractions instead of Coivid. We will get there again, hopefully soon!remember when no one showing up to GE was the biggest problem
A lockdown is a tool along the way, it's not a final solution. Details already covered here: https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads...eral-discussion.963478/page-1742#post-9359083
As such, it's not a tool that has any impact on Max Daily Deaths. There's no cause and effect relationship between those two metrics. We need a graph that shows rate of new cases after the lockdown started vs the rate from before the lockdown. Since there's an incubation lag, it's really just looking at the four weeks after the lockdown date. The first two are still the rate of pre lockdown infection and the next two are the disrupted rate because of the lockdown. If the curve doesn't bend at all, then there wasn't an impact. If it get's steeper, then the lockdown increased the rate, if flattens or goes down, then it reduced the rate.
This one is easy too. If a lockdown had no effect and it's the natural curve, then the curve shouldn't change two weeks after the lockdown ends. Assuming nothing else was done during the lockdown time as a longer term mitigation effort.
If other mitigations are done during the lockdown time to keep the rate down, then those things should keep the curve down making looking at this range of data more difficult as part of measuring lockdown effectiveness. And really, this is what is supposed to happen. A broad blunt lockdown to stop most interactions followed by mitigation efforts to contain and isolate specific interactions of infected people.
The percentages sound made up, and indicative or anecdotal instead of an actual measure. But, from news reports, most EU lockdowns sounded much more restrictive than the any in the US. Between reported enforcement of only being allowed to leave the house for limited time to more businesses shutdown. This is still anecdotal and not a specific measure. But, it certainly sounded like the EU restrictions were more severe.
Looking at the national graphs, it certainly looks like we didn't bend the curve down to a low enough level through national lockdowns and then haven't kept it down using other containment tools as the lockdowns have been lifted. At the state and regional levels, each area looks different with different times than a single national curve. Which also means the regional needs are different.
schuelma
Well-Known Member
Bingo
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
I have to admit. Despite the arguing (which is mostly healthy actually), it is refreshing to see a forum/site where there are actually two sides of a debate. I post on a well-known Star Wars site where everyone is very much on the "left" and, in some cases, the FAR left. Being one who tends to be in the middle (been called both a leftist and a right winger depending on the person reading my thoughts), it's nice to see both sides.
Still think there's nothing wrong with being both on the side of isolation/some degree of lockdown while also being empathetic to those (many) having to work, provide care for their kiddos, etc. Some reactions have seemed to be overblown. Some have been way too lackadaisical. Just depends on the situation you happen to be in.
But one thing I think personally is not true is that the virus is slowing down in the most affected states (FL, TX, AZ, CA, GA and others on the rise). However, some PARTS of all of those states are showing improvements. They tend to be less populated areas.
Dr. ZDog (not sure who is familiar) has interesting insights. He completely bashes the HCQ supporters and the "demon sex" doctor (and rightfully so). But he also has a video where he states that all we need is 20% infection rate to achieve herd immunity. That is not true.
Still think there's nothing wrong with being both on the side of isolation/some degree of lockdown while also being empathetic to those (many) having to work, provide care for their kiddos, etc. Some reactions have seemed to be overblown. Some have been way too lackadaisical. Just depends on the situation you happen to be in.
But one thing I think personally is not true is that the virus is slowing down in the most affected states (FL, TX, AZ, CA, GA and others on the rise). However, some PARTS of all of those states are showing improvements. They tend to be less populated areas.
Dr. ZDog (not sure who is familiar) has interesting insights. He completely bashes the HCQ supporters and the "demon sex" doctor (and rightfully so). But he also has a video where he states that all we need is 20% infection rate to achieve herd immunity. That is not true.
Beware of any map, showing any statistics, that just looks the same as a US Population Map.
There's all kinds of things and measures that simply correlate with "lots of people". Most of those maps might as well just say "lots of people live in these areas".
TeriofTerror
Well-Known Member
The economic collapse isn't because of the lockdown. The economic collapse is the fault of the virus itself. Please allow me to illustrate:
My husband manages a bar. Due to government regulations, that bar can only serve alcohol until 10:00 PM. That being said, I doubt the bar will have 5 customers this evening, a Friday. The bar will close for good sooner rather than later, as that is simply not sustainable.
Is that the fault of the lockdown? No. People are avoiding bars (smartly) because of the risk of infection. And you can bet no one is hiring bartenders right now (he's looking).
I don't blame the government for trying to mitigate the problem. I don't blame customers for not wanting to come in. And I certainly don't blame my husband for being a bartender. It is what it is, and to a certain extent, we're all in this together.
My husband manages a bar. Due to government regulations, that bar can only serve alcohol until 10:00 PM. That being said, I doubt the bar will have 5 customers this evening, a Friday. The bar will close for good sooner rather than later, as that is simply not sustainable.
Is that the fault of the lockdown? No. People are avoiding bars (smartly) because of the risk of infection. And you can bet no one is hiring bartenders right now (he's looking).
I don't blame the government for trying to mitigate the problem. I don't blame customers for not wanting to come in. And I certainly don't blame my husband for being a bartender. It is what it is, and to a certain extent, we're all in this together.
"Two St. Louis Cardinals have tested positive for the coronavirus, resulting in Major League Baseball postponing Friday afternoon's game at the Milwaukee Brewers, it was announced.
The Cardinals said they learned about the positive tests late Thursday night and have instructed all players and staff to self-isolate in their hotel rooms in Milwaukee until further notice. The team also said nobody left for Miller Park on Friday morning."
t.co
The Cardinals said they learned about the positive tests late Thursday night and have instructed all players and staff to self-isolate in their hotel rooms in Milwaukee until further notice. The team also said nobody left for Miller Park on Friday morning."
Two Cardinals players test positive; game ppd.
The postponement of Friday's game allows the Cardinals enough time to do additional COVID-19 testing and conduct contact tracing prior to resuming play Saturday at Milwaukee, MLB said.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Not good. After seeing the start to the baseball season compared to the NBA so far, Roger Goodell and the NFL brass should be on a Zoom call with the Bobs right now to see just how many rooms all those vacant WDW hotels have. It would be a huge bubble, but it doesn’t seem Disney is going to need those rooms anytime soon and I don’t think this sports in empty stadiums thing seems to work too well. If you include CSR and the other deluxe resorts not open yet they would easily have the 3 to 4 thousand rooms they would need for an NFL bubble. Temporary football fields could be constructed on soccer or baseball fields. There’s probably enough space. Doesn’t seem so crazy anymore."Two St. Louis Cardinals have tested positive for the coronavirus, resulting in Major League Baseball postponing Friday afternoon's game at the Milwaukee Brewers, it was announced.
The Cardinals said they learned about the positive tests late Thursday night and have instructed all players and staff to self-isolate in their hotel rooms in Milwaukee until further notice. The team also said nobody left for Miller Park on Friday morning."
Two Cardinals players test positive; game ppd.
The postponement of Friday's game allows the Cardinals enough time to do additional COVID-19 testing and conduct contact tracing prior to resuming play Saturday at Milwaukee, MLB said.
Rider
Well-Known Member
Georgia camp outbreak shows rapid virus spread among children
Some 260 cases of the coronavirus have been tied to attendees and staff at a North Georgia children’s camp in June, according to a report released Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, one of the largest known superspreading events in the state.
Of the 597 attendees and staff at the camp, 344 were tested and 260 tested positive. The CDC said the attack rate of all attendees was 44%.
oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
I thought kids dont spread corona...Georgia camp outbreak shows rapid virus spread among children
Some 260 cases of the coronavirus have been tied to attendees and staff at a North Georgia children’s camp in June, according to a report released Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, one of the largest known superspreading events in the state.www.ajc.com
Of the 597 attendees and staff at the camp, 344 were tested and 260 tested positive. The CDC said the attack rate of all attendees was 44%.
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
So, how about the other 253??? Think we maybe ought to test them???Georgia camp outbreak shows rapid virus spread among children
Some 260 cases of the coronavirus have been tied to attendees and staff at a North Georgia children’s camp in June, according to a report released Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, one of the largest known superspreading events in the state.
Of the 597 attendees and staff at the camp, 344 were tested and 260 tested positive. The CDC said the attack rate of all attendees was 44%.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
Georgia camp outbreak shows rapid virus spread among children
Some 260 cases of the coronavirus have been tied to attendees and staff at a North Georgia children’s camp in June, according to a report released Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, one of the largest known superspreading events in the state.
Of the 597 attendees and staff at the camp, 344 were tested and 260 tested positive. The CDC said the attack rate of all attendees was 44%.
yeah. Probably should have followed CDC guidelines.
hopemax
Well-Known Member
I wonder if people refused testing.
I saw yesterday that the Missouri hair stylist situation...139 clients were contacted but 72 of them refused testing. They did agree to report symptoms, and none were reported, so they presume no spread. But there is a difference between 139 negative cases (implied testing of everyone), vs 69 negatives and 72 people saying that they didn't get sick, especially when we know 40% of people might be asymptomatic.
Flugell
Well-Known Member
Genuine questions- why would they be allowed to refuse testing?
Why would they want to refuse testing?
Patcheslee
Well-Known Member
27 out of state attendees were not included in the preliminary 
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...camp-coronavirus-outbreak-cdc-trnd/index.html
oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
you can't force someone to get tested unless its a private policy. i.e. workplace
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
They can force a blood draw in a DUI, in a declared health emergency I would think they could stick a swab up your nose.
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