Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[Sirwalterraleigh]

40% off a standard room at the Poly still comes in at 340 a night plus tax and that’s value season. It not like there giving the rooms away. I remember when I paid 375.00 for club level at the Poly in May 2011.

It started at $269 in 2002...just saying

 

[GoofGoof]

Why does this have to be a guessing game? Why don’t the people in charge give the information out so families that are thinking of going to WDW can make an informed decision? It just has the feel of hiding things.

I don’t know if it’s just incompetence or attempting to play games. I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt and saying the former.

 

[GoofGoof]

Wasn't a major reported decline in average age directly correlated with the rise in cases? Won't that help keep deaths associated with that increase down?

That was the theory, but now who knows. Since the death numbers aren’t really by date of death it’s hard to say. Median age doesn‘t mean nobody older is sick. When you look at the reported deaths lots of older people still with a few 30s and 40s sprinkled in. The median age is also rising. It was in the low 30s each day a few weeks ago but was up to 40 as of a few days ago. Still younger than Mar/Apr peaks but seems to be trending up a little. Could be we are starting to see secondary infections from the younger crowd.

 

[GoofGoof]

Wasn't a major reported decline in average age directly correlated with the rise in cases? Won't that help keep deaths associated with that increase down?

In the other thread someone posted this which has the deaths reported in July. It looks like about 50/50 on over 65 or under 65.

Alright, I just wasted a few minutes and checked the PDF. Only the first 66 pages are deaths, so I converted those pages to an excel file. Sorted for newly identified deaths, confirming the total of 112 and 10 unknowns. Sorting those deaths for July gets us to, wait for it...

31 deaths in July. Perfectly in line with the graphic shown by @xdan0920. Here's a screenshot of the sheet sorted for July:

View attachment 482462

 

[chrisvee]

If I was a conspiracy theorist I would say FL deliberately held numbers to reinforce the narrative that deaths weren’t increasing.

I don’t actually believe that. I believe there is institutional government incompetence + overwhelmed people.

 

[GoofGoof]

If I was a conspiracy theorist I would say FL deliberately held numbers to reinforce the narrative that deaths weren’t increasing.

i don’t actually believe that. I believe there is institutional government incompetence + overwhelmed people.

Agreed. Never under estimate the incompetence of the government

 

[milordsloth]

In the other thread someone posted this which has the deaths reported in July. It looks like about 50/50 on over 65 or under 65.

Quick check of those 31 in July shows average age of 70.

Edit to add: 12 under 65 and 19 over 65.

 

[legwand77]

We don’t know how many people died in the last 24 hours and won’t know for a few weeks apparently. It could be more than 120.

Do we know that the deaths were lower than what was reported each day? We know that some of what was reported each day was on a lag, but without going back to every day and assigning the reported deaths to the actual dates the people died we can’t really say whether what got reported is higher or lower than actual deaths. If the number of actual deaths is increasing than in theory the amount reported each day would be lower than the real deaths because of the lag. If the number of deaths is decreasing than the opposite would be true.

check the graph above your post

 

[legwand77]

Quick check of those 31 in July shows average age of 70.

yup not quite 50/50 I would say and also matches the trend for the past few months

 

[GoofGoof]

Quick check of those 31 in July shows average age of 70.

Right so not just young people getting sick.

 

[chrisvee]

The median age is also rising. It was in the low 30s each day a few weeks ago but was up to 40 as of a few days ago. Still younger than Mar/Apr peaks but seems to be trending up a little. Could be we are starting to see secondary infections from the younger crowd.

and that may be the natural progression of an outbreak

we don’t have the early infection data from the NE for Feb/Mar bc we didn’t know the virus was here and weren’t testing

 

[milordsloth]

Right so not just young people getting sick.

I mean, this is only looking at July deaths so not surprising in my mind the average age is older.

 

[GoofGoof]

yup not quite 50/50 I would say and also matches the trend for the past few months

Sorry 58% were over 65 and 42% were under. I was making a generalization saying around 50/50.

 

[GoofGoof]

I mean, this is only looking at July deaths so not surprising in my mind the average age is older.

Yeah, overall deaths have always skewed older and it holds true still. My point is just because the median age is low 30s doesn’t mean older people weren’t getting sick and also dying. Some younger people also died.

 

[havoc315]

True, but I also imagine there are a significant amount of people who think 120 people actually died in the last 24 hours. That is why day to day is pointless with all the data anomalies and catching up. For the past few months the actual deaths data per day has been lower than what has been reported on that date.

Yes, lots of people don’t understand the data.

but no... you can’t say that fewer died than reported. We don’t yet know how many died “yesterday” and we may not get a final number for months.
But we need to look at it as a lagged rolling average. Looking at the data... we can say that over the last few weeks, deaths have been increasing, up to an average of 70-80 per day. It might be significantly higher -today-.. but we won’t know for weeks.

It’s also why you can’t wait for the numbers to get bad before taking mitigation measures. If you wait for the numbers to get bad, then you’re probably reacting 2 weeks too late.

 

[chrisvee]

Yes, lots of people don’t understand the data.

but no... you can’t say that fewer died than reported. We don’t yet know how many died “yesterday” and we may not get a final number for months.
But we need to look at it as a lagged rolling average. Looking at the data... we can say that over the last few weeks, deaths have been increasing, up to an average of 70-80 per day. It might be significantly higher -today-.. but we won’t know for weeks.

It’s also why you can’t wait for the numbers to get bad before taking mitigation measures. If you wait for the numbers to get bad, then you’re probably reacting 2 weeks too late.

yes

plenty of experts warn that the biggest mistake is inaction

 

[GoofGoof]

check the graph above your post

But that doesn’t take into account the lag. Why would the CDC numbers not have the same lag if they get the numbers from the local governments?

 

[robhedin]

But that doesn’t take into account the lag. Why would the CDC numbers not have the same lag if they get the numbers from the local governments?

I believe the CDC gets their death numbers once the death certificates are processed. The local data (I believe) is likely provided earlier before the certificate is completed/filed/registered/whatever. For example, person dies in hospital, hospital reports using COVID NET to get the data out and then, over the course of the next couple of weeks, the paper work is filed which makes its way to the CDC.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

yes

plenty of experts warn that the biggest mistake is inaction

That was what all the epidemiologists foretold...for months...
Including Fauci...who some now equate with the night cashier at taco bell

 

[GoofGoof]

I believe the CDC gets their death numbers once the death certificates are processed. The local data (I believe) is likely provided earlier before the certificate is completed/filed/registered/whatever. For example, person dies in hospital, hospital reports using COVID NET to get the data out and then, over the course of the next couple of weeks, the paper work is filed which makes its way to the CDC.

Isn’t the local data what is on a lag? The 120 deaths reported today for FL were actually deaths from weeks ago. I assumed that delay was due to the time it takes to establish a cause of death and issue a death certificate. It’s all very confusing.