Disney World Low Attendance Paradox

SteveAZee

Well-Known Member
It's certainly possible that Disney could make more profit with smaller crowds if the things the smaller crowds purchase are, on average, sold with a higher margin. If word gets around that the crowds are lower but the prices are higher, smaller crowds of big spenders (TS dining every meal, buying high end souvenirs, etc) could create greater profit. Also, if the crowds are notably smaller, there will be less cost to them for cast members to run attractions, crowd control, custodial and maintenance. While it might not be easy, it's possible smaller crowds could generate greater profit.
 

Capsin4

Well-Known Member
Disney could only profit from lower attendance if the customers that are going spend more money than the simple price increase alone. The $20 profit from the price hike of a ticket for one customer is not as profitable as an additional customer paying for admission, resort, food, merch, etc.
It is when you can slash operating expenses by reducing staff. It’s well known they’re doing this. Lower crowds but longer waits for food and rides. Higher spending per room means you need fewer rooms and can get by with fewer cast members at the resorts.
 

bUU

Well-Known Member
To say that this is all the result of people with an axe to grind is just plain silly.
We'll have to agree to disagree. You place far too much stock in unofficial sources with undisclosed biases when we can readily intuit what the official sources know based on what they are doing with their far better information.

Less guests is in no, way, shape, or form, a win for TDO. It’s just not.
Because you said so. 🤣

At this point, if I were Universal, I would lean into this situation and lower admission prices (15% ish) though the end of the year.
And the fact that they don't do that should tell/teach you something.

They have milked us cash cows dry and kept on squeezing.
Exhibit: Ax.

Disney could only profit from lower attendance if the customers that are going spend more money than the simple price increase alone. The $20 profit from the price hike of a ticket for one customer is not as profitable as an additional customer paying for admission, resort, food, merch, etc.
That's literally nonsense. You would need to know precisely how many "additional customers" are involved in order to determine what is or is not "as profitable as".

Guess who has the best information about that?

(Hint: It's not you.)
 
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bUU

Well-Known Member
This too shall pass. Maybe attendance is down at DL and WDW. The internet and YouTube blows up and spreads the fake news about the low attendance, then folks rush to DL and WDW to take advantage of the low crowds, and the parks are mobbed as usual..
Disney Always Wins.
But some may never learn.
 

xdan0920

Think for yourselfer
We'll have to agree to disagree. You place far too much stock in unofficial sources with undisclosed biases when we can readily intuit what the official sources know based on what they are doing with their far better information.

Because you said so. 🤣

And the fact that they don't do that should tell/teach you something.

Exhibit: Ax.

That's literally nonsense. You would need to know precisely how many "additional customers" are involved in order to determine what is or is not "as profitable as".

Guess who has the best information about that?

(Hint: It's not you.)
Your blind faith in management is admirable. I own a small business and I could use a man like you.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I think people and looking at this without a
Key detail: most still do not plan travel with this kind cash involved that would allow the flexibility to “delay” because a ride didn’t open as scheduled. The delay of one Star Wars Ride or the Mickey one is not going to be “accounted for” with delays in significant numbers. These prices are not that cheap...neither are flights.

The spook of places - like we morons here - That spread to other more casual travelers and travel agents likely did scare off a segment from this fall. “Crushing crowds”...”6 hour waits”. These Star Wars lands were decreed to be the greatest things ever with not a single thing to indicate that was a surety. It was likely avatar zeal gone awry.

Also - nobody believes me but whatever - it does not seem Star Wars has the pull that Disney fans assume. Very well could be waning.


But it’s also entirely possible they’ve crushed what’s left of the offsite, middle class type traveler. It was going to happen - maybe it has?

That’s trouble...as the on property rooms don’t provide nearly enough for them to be satisfied. Mass operations are dependent on the masses.
 
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Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Even if high prices were the #1 concern of customers, Disney is far too proud to simply lower them across the board.

That would be a sign of admitting defeat, and every think piece, opinion column and 3rd rate financial analyst would be going on about how "Disney killed its business" and asking questions the Bobs have no interest in answering (at least on camera). Universal would also be laughing at them while continuing to charge $175/day to visit both Harry Potter lands.

So now they're in a position where they either lower prices to bring back the crowds, but risk scrutiny, or keep them relatively flat and hope that the crowds come back or at least stay somewhat high.

And it's all their fault for thinking that they could get away with constantly raising prices forever. They have no one to blame but themselves.
They cannot lower prices because bob’s sole goal is stock price. To lower prices would indicate softness in their primary revenue generating segment and the street would Punish them. Iger’s got about 1 more year of fighting for nickels...then he washes the hands and is gone.
Less guests is in no, way, shape, or form, a win for TDO. It’s just not.
The contention they want lower crowds is the silliest thing in a fan base known to be immature and silly.
I just purchase a Buy 2 get 3 free for Universal. For someone that wants to go there for 5 days that is quite the discount. I was only planning on 2 days but since the other 3 were free... why not!
I’ve had disney annuals for roughly 15 of the last 18 years...
If uni takes this promo past 12/21 I jump on that and wdw loses me for another year (2 in a row)
I’m one person...but from a demographic/research perspective, that should scare the hell outta Disney based on my consumption history. I no longer have it currently and I don’t miss it. Bad signs.
Low attendance... wow. All weve been hearing is how oppressive the crowds have been, how long the lines are, how the standby times are over a hundred minutes long, how difficult it is to enjoy a Disney event from oversell of tickets... and now its a ghost town? From the beginning we were being told that people were holding back from booking for 2 years in anticipation of SW completion, Tron completion, SW hotel build, the 50th anniversary build up... and now that the numbers have seemingly shown a decrease... its a crisis and Disney is on its way out??
you’re gonna need help carrying that bucket or it may tear your arms right out of the sockets.
This too shall pass. Maybe attendance is down at DL and WDW. The internet and YouTube blows up and spreads the fake news about the low attendance, then folks rush to DL and WDW to take advantage of the low crowds, and the parks are mobbed as usual..

Disney Always Wins.
What if the price is too high that there’s no reinforcements to rush in and fill the void?
I’m not saying that’s happening...but if it were that’s a permanent situation and would be carastroohic.

We are not in a recession economy. Many customers are personally in one, however, and it’s not going to be fixed.
But some may never learn.
You’re demonstrating the difference between college level economic principal knowledge and applied wisdom of the Disney corporation and traveler/leisure habits on this thread.
Your blind faith in management is admirable. I own a small business and I could use a man like you.
This IS something that some people will never learn. The belief that they aren’t ultimately winging it has shocked me for 25 years and will continue to.

Business - like politics - in the end is about perception. Agenda becomes reality if people believe it.
 
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correcaminos

Well-Known Member
I like to look at @lentesta Touring plans numbers. It is really worth the cost of a subscription. Without giving too much away, based on his predictions and actual observations, there clearly has been a noticeable slow down for late spring and summer. It even appears that winter and early spring crowds outperformed the current period. Total reversal of crowd distributions.
This has been ongoing for years though. I don't think it is just SW:GE phenomenon. As they increased summer ticket and resort prices, the crowds have diminished.

I think this is intentional, better distribution of crowds throughout the year. We stopped doing fall/early winter in favor of spring and summer for that reason. October feels far more crowded than late May/early June now.
 

DuckTalesWooHoo1987

Well-Known Member
This has been ongoing for years though. I don't think it is just SW:GE phenomenon. As they increased summer ticket and resort prices, the crowds have diminished.

I think this is intentional, better distribution of crowds throughout the year. We stopped doing fall/early winter in favor of spring and summer for that reason. October feels far more crowded than late May/early June now.
Yeah October is WAY more crowded than it used to be but I think this is due to so many schools getting "fall breaks" now. We always go in May and October and last October was unreal in how crowded it was. A lot of it had to do with Hurricane Michael on that trip in particular and a lot of people left the coast and just came to Disneyworld when they were forced to evacuate. So with fall break combined with hurricane season sorta created a perfect storm, no pun intended, for bigger crowds. The Halloween party is now so popular too that it just causes even more crowds.
 

xdan0920

Think for yourselfer
This has been ongoing for years though. I don't think it is just SW:GE phenomenon. As they increased summer ticket and resort prices, the crowds have diminished.

I think this is intentional, better distribution of crowds throughout the year. We stopped doing fall/early winter in favor of spring and summer for that reason. October feels far more crowded than late May/early June now.
Most of the crowding you are feeling is the result of understaffing. Not more people.
 

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
Yeah October is WAY more crowded than it used to be but I think this is due to so many schools getting "fall breaks" now. We always go in May and October and last October was unreal in how crowded it was. A lot of it had to do with Hurricane Michael on that trip in particular and a lot of people left the coast and just came to Disneyworld when they were forced to evacuate. So with fall break combined with hurricane season sorta created a perfect storm, no pun intended, for bigger crowds. The Halloween party is now so popular too that it just causes even more crowds.
We never have fall breaks here, but I know many do. Same with winter breaks in Feb. I'd rather get out earlier in the year than have all these breaks.

I think adding in more festivals brings people too and lower prices. People take kids out of school now too without worry. We're happy with our summer and early spring break travel. Higher points (DVC) for us but it's worth it.
 

wdisney9000

Truindenashendubapreser
Premium Member
It is when you can slash operating expenses by reducing staff. It’s well known they’re doing this. Lower crowds but longer waits for food and rides. Higher spending per room means you need fewer rooms and can get by with fewer cast members at the resorts.
"Slashing expenses" (overhead costs) is not profit. It is a short term boost to the bottom line. What happens in the next quarter? You slash expenses again? Reduce staff again and raise prices? That is not sustainable and the product/experience will diminish.
 

wdisney9000

Truindenashendubapreser
Premium Member
That's literally nonsense. You would need to know precisely how many "additional customers" are involved in order to determine what is or is not "as profitable as".
Seems like basic mathematics. If you expect to make higher profits with lower attendance, would it not require one customer to spend more money than two customers combined?

Lets say you have two customers staying onsite. If customer A spends $1,000 and customer B spends $500, then in order to lower customers and increase profits, you would need one of the customers to spend minimum $1,501. Either customer A spends appx 50% more or customer B spends appx 200% more.

Of course there are other variables to consider, but in the end, its percentages, not dollars. If they were able to lower attendance by 20% then it would require the 80% still visiting to make up for the profit loss of the 20% no longer attending. How loyal can you expect a customer to be if you continue to squeeze them with price hikes?
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
This has been ongoing for years though. I don't think it is just SW:GE phenomenon. As they increased summer ticket and resort prices, the crowds have diminished.

I think this is intentional, better distribution of crowds throughout the year. We stopped doing fall/early winter in favor of spring and summer for that reason. October feels far more crowded than late May/early June now.
In no way do they want diminished crowds for one single minute. Come on, now...let’s stop with this, please? Common sense test.
Yeah October is WAY more crowded than it used to be but I think this is due to so many schools getting "fall breaks" now. We always go in May and October and last October was unreal in how crowded it was. A lot of it had to do with Hurricane Michael on that trip in particular and a lot of people left the coast and just came to Disneyworld when they were forced to evacuate. So with fall break combined with hurricane season sorta created a perfect storm, no pun intended, for bigger crowds. The Halloween party is now so popular too that it just causes even more crowds.
October sucks, frankly...they should have extended hours...instead they cut them and do silly upsells.

Never again
We did the first week in May in 2017 and 2019 --during the week crowds were not bad at all-- weekends it got crowded. It was hot and humid
May is typically a slow month...maybe the best month on the whole
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Seems like basic mathematics. If you expect to make higher profits with lower attendance, would it not require one customer to spend more money than two customers combined?

Lets say you have two customers staying onsite. If customer A spends $1,000 and customer B spends $500, then in order to lower customers and increase profits, you would need one of the customers to spend minimum $1,501. Either customer A spends appx 50% more or customer B spends appx 200% more.

Of course there are other variables to consider, but in the end, its percentages, not dollars. If they were able to lower attendance by 20% then it would require the 80% still visiting to make up for the profit loss of the 20% no longer attending. How loyal can you expect a customer to be if you continue to squeeze them with price hikes?
It is fairly simple...but no one believes it. TWDC in no way wants less attendance. Chisel that on the tablets and carry it down from the mountain of commerce.
 

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