A Spirited Perfect Ten

[Cesar R M]

On December 18, Rich Greenfield of BTIG downgraded Disney stock. Disney CEO Bob Iger wasn't pleased with the downgrade, making the following very public statement when questioned about it during a December 21 interview on Bloomberg TV:

Well, I was curious or suspicious about the timing. If anybody wanted headlines the time to do it was the morning after "Star Wars" opened in the United States. And so it was headline grabbing. The analyst who came out with that report has been wrong about us on a number of occasions. And so one would have to question if he's been wrong so often before, you know, how valid were his comments this time around. And by the way, he's entitled to his opinions.

And the other thing I would say is I don't know where the accountability is. I don't know when he's wrong; I don't know who he's accountable for. But nothing has changed and we've got nothing to update since our last filing and our last earnings call regarding ESPN. So again, he's entitled to his opinions.​

The response by the normally composed (some say dull) Iger caused murmurs among those who closely follow financial news and, in at least one case, lead to an unusual public commentary by Eric Jackson, Managing Director at Ader Investment Management.

On December 21, the Dow closed at 17251.62. Yesterday's close was 15988.08, a decline of 7.3%.

On December 21, Disney closed at 106.59. Yesterday's close was 93.90, a decline of 11.9%.

The markets are overreacting, they always do, but I have to admit that listening again to Iger's un-CEO-like response to Greenfield's prophetic downgrade concerns me.

Business people suck up to CEOs. Good CEOs expect it and learn to take everything with a grain of salt. However, after a while, many CEOs actually start to believe it and, as a result, their abilities to handle criticism declines.

I recall Michael Eisner becoming slowly unhinged after his first decade as Disney CEO, increasingly attacking those who differed with him. Now that Iger has been CEO for a decade, I'm beginning to wonder if we're starting to see the same with Iger.

the "untouchable and flawless" syndrome?

I also hope that he doesn't go crazy with buybacks and cancelling most of the upgrades on the parks :/

Which is .. by itself.. pretty stupid.. considering how the parks are constantly printing money and might be their "fall back" if ESPN goes to the carp...

 

[Cesar R M]

Somehow I think Kylo Ren will end up doing a duet with Olaf in Frozen 2.

more frozen carp...

Once again, Iger's genius has prevailed.

Not sure how Stallone's performance in Creed was better than Harrison Ford's.

Not sure how the simple plot of The Revenant is better than the Simple Plot of The Force Awakens.

now sure how much of a copy-clone of "a new hope" the new flick was

Id say Rey's acting was good, Ford was solid.. Finn overdid it a few times.. and hated the whinny baby of Kylo.... so Id say the movie was AVERAGE.
for popcorn flicks, clearly better than your amazing shia lebaouf's "NO NO NO NO NO ON!" for 30 minutes in transformers franchise.

 

[Cesar R M]

Mix of casuals with shorter attention spans and wanting to squeeze more Fastpass Plus slots in. Same thing with Tiki Room.

That seems to be more like a problem of fastpass than actual people stuff.

 

[Nmoody1]

Operative word 'could'. The problems at SDL 'should' not be laid at Weis's feet. The worry was he could be turned into the fall guy, but wiser heads have prevailed.

After all, say what you will about SDL, but apart from a few contentious items, people are generally happy with the creative direction of the park.

'People' haven't walked through tomorrow land yet, or 'the largest Fantasyland' with not many dark rides to speak of... but I hope everyone is right!

 

[The Empress Lilly]

Well.

There are only a handful of IMAX theaters on the continent of North America with a 70mm 4K digital laser projector. This is the only one in the DC area.

Goodness, that is most certainly rare! 70mm that is also digital, and laser! What else, two panda bears projecting from their rear ends?

 

[rael ramone]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/

Domestic Accomplishments
Biggest domestic movie ever
Biggest single day ever
Biggest opening day ever
Biggest Friday ever
Biggest Saturday ever
Biggest Monday ever
Biggest Tuesday ever
Biggest non-holiday Monday ever
Biggest non-opening Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday ever
Biggest opening weekend ever
Biggest average per movie theater in an opening weekend ever
Biggest second weekend ever
Biggest third weekend ever
Biggest December ever
Biggest 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10-day gross ever
Fastest ever to $100 million, $150 million, $200 million, $250 million, $300 million, $400 million, $500, $600, and $700 million, and only movie to top $800 million

Even adjusted for inflation, in just 29 days it's already the 15th biggest domestic movie ever and will undoubtedly get up to number 11, probably no later than next weekend, and may end up in the top 10. The top 10 list of adjusted for inflation domestic movie includes six movies that have had multiple releases, no movies released for the first time after 1997, and only one movie originally released after 1982 (less competition for entertainment dollars back in the day).

It's also the third biggest movie worldwide ever.

It's safe to say it's been big...really, really, really big.

And yet the investment community says 'what does this have to do with ESPNs troubles'.... and rightly so.

 

[PhotoDave219]

more frozen carp...

now sure how much of a copy-clone of "a new hope" the new flick was

Id say Rey's acting was good, Ford was solid.. Finn overdid it a few times.. and hated the whinny baby of Kylo.... so Id say the movie was AVERAGE.
for popcorn flicks, clearly better than your amazing shia lebaouf's "NO NO NO NO NO ON!" for 30 minutes in transformers franchise.

Have you seen the Revenant? Point being, it's not the wündercinema people are making it out to be.

 

[Hakunamatata]

Have you seen the Revenant? Point being, it's not the wündercinema people are making it out to be.

I was thinking about seeing it this week. Maybe I will wait until it comes out on blue ray.

 

[PhotoDave219]

I was thinking about seeing it this week. Maybe I will wait until it comes out on blue ray.

It was good - visually stunning. Good great white north eye candy, so for that alone I'd say its worth the big screen. Great acting by Leo, just comes up a little short in the story department IMO.

 

[Hakunamatata]

It was good - visually stunning. Good great white north eye candy, so for that alone I'd say its worth the big screen. Great acting by Leo, just comes up a little short in the story department IMO.

One of the draws for me was the setting. One of the reasons I love the movie Jeremiah Johnson.

 

[ford91exploder]

And yet the investment community says 'what does this have to do with ESPNs troubles'.... and rightly so.

And even with that TFA will not add a lot of short term CASH to the TWDC bottom line figure 1/3 of gross box office receipts, Longer term licensing revenues will contribute more overall to TWDC.

 

[PhotoDave219]

One of the draws for me was the setting. One of the reasons I love the movie Jeremiah Johnson.

In that case, go see it in the theatres. Its total eye candy.

 

[ford91exploder]

On December 18, Rich Greenfield of BTIG downgraded Disney stock. Disney CEO Bob Iger wasn't pleased with the downgrade, making the following very public statement when questioned about it during a December 21 interview on Bloomberg TV:

Well, I was curious or suspicious about the timing. If anybody wanted headlines the time to do it was the morning after "Star Wars" opened in the United States. And so it was headline grabbing. The analyst who came out with that report has been wrong about us on a number of occasions. And so one would have to question if he's been wrong so often before, you know, how valid were his comments this time around. And by the way, he's entitled to his opinions.

And the other thing I would say is I don't know where the accountability is. I don't know when he's wrong; I don't know who he's accountable for. But nothing has changed and we've got nothing to update since our last filing and our last earnings call regarding ESPN. So again, he's entitled to his opinions.​

The response by the normally composed (some say dull) Iger caused murmurs among those who closely follow financial news and, in at least one case, lead to an unusual public commentary by Eric Jackson, Managing Director at Ader Investment Management.

On December 21, the Dow closed at 17251.62. Yesterday's close was 15988.08, a decline of 7.3%.

On December 21, Disney closed at 106.59. Yesterday's close was 93.90, a decline of 11.9%.

The markets are overreacting, they always do, but I have to admit that listening again to Iger's un-CEO-like response to Greenfield's prophetic downgrade concerns me.

Business people suck up to CEOs. Good CEOs expect it and learn to take everything with a grain of salt. However, after a while, many CEOs actually start to believe it and, as a result, their abilities to handle criticism declines.

I recall Michael Eisner becoming slowly unhinged after his first decade as Disney CEO, increasingly attacking those who differed with him. Now that Iger has been CEO for a decade, I'm beginning to wonder if we're starting to see the same with Iger.

The question is does Iger dial down the investment in P&R and ramp up buybacks to levels unseen in hopes of creating inflated EPS to deflect analyst scrutiny of TWDC operations. I've long opined and been mocked for it that Disney is not as healthy as it appears on first glance and that they have made some monumentally poor business decisions. The ESPN MNF football package is a nice example of that I think.

If we see buybacks increasing over the next couple of quarters and no progress on park improvements then I think we know our answer.

 

[brb1006]

So who else is going to watch tonight's special on Zootopia around 8:00pm on Disney Channel.

 

[seascape]

The question is does Iger dial down the investment in P&R and ramp up buybacks to levels unseen in hopes of creating inflated EPS to deflect analyst scrutiny of TWDC operations. I've long opined and been mocked for it that Disney is not as healthy as it appears on first glance and that they have made some monumentally poor business decisions. The ESPN MNF football package is a nice example of that I think.

If we see buybacks increasing over the next couple of quarters and no progress on park improvements then I think we know our answer.

Given what is going on with the stock market Disney should buy TWX and sell part so the Feds will aprove it. With the extra networks they can completely by pass cable and offer a great Intertnet based TV package. There is no doubt once a network determine how to direct advertising to viewers individually that they will make a ton more money than they do now. Content is king and always will be. Further it is only a matter of time before the FCC regulates the rates charged for internet.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

The ESPN MNF football package is a nice example of that I think.

Disney is in a unique situation. If you look at ESPN and ABC (the networks)....there is an inherent issue. And that is..the networks don't own the product. They are merely conduits in distributing a product. A product they do not own. As distribution channels evolve (i.e. streaming, VOD, etc) that piece of the business gets exposed. With Disney Studios, Parks, Disney Channel...they do own the product and directly control the manner in which it is distributed. I wouldn't be surprised to see Disney offload ESPN and ABC sometime in the near future.

 

[Soarin' Over Pgh]

So who else is going to watch tonight's special on Zootopia around 8:00pm on Disney Channel.

I didn't know about this, thanks!

 

[Cosmic Commando]

I don't pretend to know how the ESPN thing will turn out, but there will be some balance coming in the cost vs. revenue side in the future. They pay a ton of money for rights to their live sports, but those packages are only worth what someone is willing to pay for them. If ESPN doesn't have the same subscriber base, if advertisers don't keep handing over the cash, then those packages will most likely come down in price. I don't see anyone in a better position than ESPN to turn live sports (which are special, because they draw live viewing) into $$$ on the revenue side of the balance sheet. The biggest threat to ESPN, I'd say, is if someone like Fox takes on some of these packages as a loss leader to try and shake ESPN off their lofty perch.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

The biggest threat to ESPN, I'd say, is if someone like Fox takes on some of these packages as a loss leader to try and shake ESPN off their lofty perch.

I think the alternate forms of distribution are ESPN's biggest threat. Yahoo had a deal with the NFL to stream a single game and it brought back record numbers. Same with the World Cup. At some point, the leagues (who own the product ESPN distributes) are going (they already are) to explore these alternate channels. Streaming will become a bigger and bigger piece. The leagues just need to overcome the financial arrangements they have with the likes of ESPN, DirectTV, CBS, NBC, and Fox. The networks spend because of the advertising revenue that package generates (along with the subscriber fee). Once the leagues feel they can make more through alternate distribution channels, ESPN and the like will lose market share. Imagine the NFL with a streaming package that would in turn generate for them all of the advertising revenue directly.(local, national, and international)

 

[bcoachable]

I see ESPN trying to hang on in the near future by emphasizing there ESPN generated product like "30 for 30", "Mike and Mike" and "Sportscenter" to help people realize they (ESPN) are more than just a sporting event mirroring tv station. At the moment, I am watching lots of sports using the ESPN watch app, but paying for it through Time Warner. I could see ESPN eventually being able to cut out the middle man (TWC) as long as their content stays great.