Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

Disney Irish

Premium Member
And as we discussed waaaayyyy upthread a few months ago…the actual write down numbers for “2023: year of the uranium movies” were higher than we believed them to be at that time.

But it was definitely in late 2024 or early 2025 where it got play

There’s a reason you want to “bury” the corpse…not set it up in a lawn chair in the backyard next to the grill
I'm not trying to bury anything. I'm also not trying to go back to 2023, but we can if you want, please provide that list of actual write downs in 2023 and the financial statements that back that up.

What I want to know though is what if any they actually wrote down in the last 18 months, because that is the time period we're in, and I don't recall any happening. But you are claiming they did. So please go back to the beginning of 2024, what movies have they actually written down from Jan 2024 to July 2025?
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I'm not trying to bury anything. I'm also not trying to go back to 2023, but we can if you want, please provide that list of actual write downs in 2023 and the financial statements that back that up.

What I want to know though is what if any they actually wrote down in the last 18 months, because that is the time period we're in, and I don't recall any happening. But you are claiming they did. So please go back to the beginning of 2024, what movies have they actually written down from Jan 2024 to July 2025?

Of you course I’m not saying you did it…it’s just your opinions anyway here and accuracy “varies”

I’ll search for it…there were some doozies

We’re talking Indiana jones, the marvels, haunted mansion…ring a bell? You think there's a paper trail that somehow D+ subs bailed them out?
It’s more likely I can build a warp drive in my garage tonight

But it would be enough to just admit that things that can’t mathematically not be flops - even with tax credits and wizardry - were flops. But it never goes that way.

And that 2024 trick was not AT all clever. It’s like amateur hour or something? 2023 would do nicely…since it was what I said
 

Chi84

Premium Member
Of you course I’m not saying you did it…it’s just your opinions anyway here and accuracy “varies”

I’ll search for it…there were some doozies

We’re talking Indiana jones, the marvels, haunted mansion…ring a bell? You think there's a paper trail that somehow D+ subs bailed them out?
It’s more likely I can build a warp drive in my garage tonight

But it would be enough to just admit that things that can’t mathematically not be flops - even with tax credits and wizardry - were flops. But it never goes that way.

And that 2024 trick was not AT all clever. It’s like amateur hour or something? 2023 would do nicely…since it was what I said
So no facts or evidence to back up what you’re saying?

I’d love to know whether there are facts to back up anything you’re saying in these threads.

Saying generally that people lie, employ wizardry, group unrelated businesses in one filing to obfuscate matters, create an ambiguous soup that can’t be untangled etc. doesn’t mean anything without support.

Unless there’s some evidence that Disney is employing substandard business practices, maybe the confusion isn’t attributable to them but rather to insufficient knowledge to understand the subject matter.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Of you course I’m not saying you did it…it’s just your opinions anyway here and accuracy “varies”

I’ll search for it…there were some doozies

We’re talking Indiana jones, the marvels, haunted mansion…ring a bell? You think there's a paper trail that somehow D+ subs bailed them out?
It’s more likely I can build a warp drive in my garage tonight

But it would be enough to just admit that things that can’t mathematically not be flops - even with tax credits and wizardry - were flops. But it never goes that way.

And that 2024 trick was not AT all clever. It’s like amateur hour or something? 2023 would do nicely…since it was what I said
Actually I do think there is a paper trail that tracks subs to a particular piece of content, we just don't have access to it. Just like I do think there is a paper trail if they actually wrote something down, given the legal requirements regarding write downs, and we do actually have access to that. So I'd like to see that if you have it.

I also have no issue calling a flop a flop, if it is indeed a flop, ie it'll have lost more money than it can earn during its entire lifetime. But what you have a hard time admitting is that something that under performs during theatrical can and does end up turning a profit down the line, ie that theatrical is not the end all be all for a movies earnings, that its only part of the equation not the whole equation as you like to portray.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
I can help you out with this…
Snow White was a bomb

The two marvel movies this year were disappointments

Stitch hit huge

👍

As per your fear of trying to make up excuses in the back end, I just commented that its debut on streaming was sub par a few days ago. Snow is done and dusted. We’ll see the full loss in a year from Deadline, but it will be large.
 

AdventureHasAName

Well-Known Member
I think you're missing the point.

I've asked a couple times now. Can you please provide where you've gotten this calculation you're insisting be used?
I think the word "insisting" is doing a lot of work in your question. As far as I know, I never cited any calculation formula ... and I certainly didn't insist anyone use it. This may shock everyone, but I don't really care what anyone thinks in this thread. Feel free to use any calculation you feel like. LMAO.

But I'm not even sure what you're asking ...

Are you asking why I believe tentpole films often make far more than 50% of the gross receipts on opening week?

Or are you asking me why I believe Superman Legacy is a tentpole film?
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
So no facts or evidence to back up what you’re saying?

I’d love to know whether there are facts to back up anything you’re saying in these threads.

Saying generally that people lie, employ wizardry, group unrelated businesses in one filing to obfuscate matters, create an ambiguous soup that can’t be untangled etc. doesn’t mean anything without support.

Unless there’s some evidence that Disney is employing substandard business practices, maybe the confusion isn’t attributable to them but rather to insufficient knowledge to understand the subject matter.
Hold on…I’m actually finding some good articles from late 2023 on the situation of that year…and does a pretty good job of explaining the complicated system to make moves in the UK. It’s fascinating and worth a read:


And I’m sure that was posted prior…but we have forgotten. But I’ll keep looking for the more recent references…

Now I gotta ask…why are you jumping in and “picking a side”?

First…there are no sides here. Disney cares not for anyone’s opinion and we don’t affect their performance. We have opinions.

But math is math…still…and the obsession with trying to redefine/reassign math is getting weird.

Now i have grown tired of the contradictions…for sure…and if I just ignore it…anyone else who wonders into this minefield will be contradicted constantly as well. Plenty of evidence upthread of that ( so no “what do you mean?” Warranted)

Now…did you see Superman? What do you think about a new pirates?

There’s more than just holding court in the king of streamings self proclaimed kingdom
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
And as we discussed waaaayyyy upthread a few months ago…the actual write down numbers for “2023: year of the uranium movies” were higher than we believed them to be at that time.

They were actually lower. Marginally so then the metric system and almost half the imperial.

TP’s formula said 1.28B, mine said 709M and actuals (in which I included a fifth quarter to make sure we caught the full effect) said 694M.

This post summarizes the breakdown. Still a big loss, obviously running any moderate high 9 figure loss over the entire year speaks to many flops (4 in particular) and very few successes.

Repeat: 2023 was VERY BAD.

 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
👍

As per your fear of trying to make up excuses in the back end, I just commented that its debut on streaming was sub par a few days ago. Snow is done and dusted. We’ll see the full loss in a year from Deadline, but it will be large.
It’s just hot when worth talking about

There’s doesn’t need to be a battle between self evident events and “personal alternative analysis”

And the wheel keeps on turning.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
They were actually lower. Marginally so then the metric system and almost half the imperial.

TP’s formula said 1.28B, mine said 709M and actuals (in which I included a fifth quarter to make sure we caught the full effect) said 694M.

This post summarizes the breakdown. Still a big loss, obviously running any moderate high 9 figure loss over the entire year speaks to many flops (4 in particular) and very few successes.

Repeat: 2023 was VERY BAD.


I wasn’t referencing number nearly that high (in the red)…it was like $75-$125 or so losses on them with perhaps the exceptions of the marvels and Indy?

So not $600-$1 billion is posted loses. It’s Disney…they’re gonna use legal means to whittle it down. Hell…it happened in people’s minds this year already.
Captain falcon has been referenced here as having a low (impossible actually) budget and nothing for the extensive reshoots. Don’t get why that matters here…but whatevs? 🤷🏻

Now I’m wondering is it even worth it?

I can put up 100 things about losses and they’re not gonna be believed…or much worse and likely guaranteed…an attempt to massage away those loses with streaming revenues where NOTHING can be proved. It’s impassible.
 

Chi84

Premium Member
Hold on…I’m actually finding some good articles from late 2023 on the situation of that year…and does a pretty good job of explaining the complicated system to make moves in the UK. It’s fascinating and worth a read:


And I’m sure that was posted prior…but we have forgotten. But I’ll keep looking for the more recent references…

Now I gotta ask…why are you jumping in and “picking a side”?

First…there are no sides here. Disney cares not for anyone’s opinion and we don’t affect their performance. We have opinions.

But math is math…still…and the obsession with trying to redefine/reassign math is getting weird.

Now i have grown tired of the contradictions…for sure…and if I just ignore it…anyone else who wonders into this minefield will be contradicted constantly as well. Plenty of evidence upthread of that ( so no “what do you mean?” Warranted)

Now…did you see Superman? What do you think about a new pirates?

There’s more than just holding court in the king of streamings self proclaimed kingdom
I’m not picking a side but I haven’t seen any math in answer to the question you were asked.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
I think the word "insisting" is doing a lot of work in your question. As far as I know, I never cited any calculation formula ... and I certainly didn't insist anyone use it. This may shock everyone, but I don't really care what anyone thinks in this thread. Feel free to use any calculation you feel like. LMAO.

But I'm not even sure what you're asking ...

Are you asking why I believe tentpole films often make far more than 50% of the gross receipts on opening week?

Or are you asking me why I believe Superman Legacy is a tentpole film?
I'm trying to figure out where you got this "new" metric for break even you are using from. Was it some reddit, some article, made it up yourself, where?

And yes maybe "insisting" is a bit loaded here. But when I questioned your calculation on break even you brought up this "new" metric, as if we should have known there is a new one to use. So again that is where I'm trying to figure out where you got it from. If its valid metric, and one that we should be using to determine break even, it should be able to be held up to scrutiny like the other metrics that are commonly used like the 2.5x or the 50% metric or even TPs 60/40 split metric.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
But math is math…still…and the obsession with trying to redefine/reassign math is getting weird.
Correct math is math. But the math you're trying to use is incomplete, as it only tells part of the picture not the whole picture as you often try to claim.

No one is trying to say Snow White, Indy 5, or a few other movies are somehow mathing out to be a success. So you can get off the soapbox.

But movies like Cap4, Thunderbolts, and a few others that you claimed "failed" or "bombed" or whatever other adjective you wanted to use can and most likely do end up making money in the end. We don't need to debate if its "good" or "expected" money, just that they most likely did make money in the end. That should be able to be agreed on, even if begrudging by you. As there is enough post-theatrical monies for that to occur.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Correct math is math. But the math you're trying to use is incomplete, as it only tells part of the picture not the whole picture as you often try to claim.

No one is trying to say Snow White, Indy 5, or a few other movies are somehow mathing out to be a success. So you can get off the soapbox.

But movies like Cap4, Thunderbolts, and a few others that you claimed "failed" or "bombed" or whatever other adjective you wanted to use can and most likely do end up making money in the end. We don't need to debate if its "good" or "expected" money, just that they most likely did make money in the end. That should be able to be agreed on, even if begrudging by you. As there is enough post-theatrical monies for that to occur.

In shocking development…you’re claiming “profits” on streaming assigned to titles that can NEVER be quantified.

That’s experimental math…which isn’t math at all.

I think we’re back in the trenches here…so can we get back to current Movies?
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
In shocking development…you’re claiming “profits” on streaming assigned to titles that can NEVER be quantified.

That’s experimental math…which isn’t math at all.

I think we’re back in the trenches here…so can we get back to current Movies?
Where did I say "streaming"? I said post-theatrical, which has many revenue sources but yes also includes streaming. And I said post-theatrical for a reason. Because I knew you couldn't stand to attribute money earned outside of the box office.

Also why don't they qualify for monies earned by streaming? This is where you fail at this argument. Because you don't want to see the value that streaming can bring to all titles on the platform including new releases.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
So they make money post box office but we can’t quantify how much?
They have for decades…and yet nobody ever used blockbuster rentals or digital direct purchases to directly offset box office underperformance…or the ads sold when something showed on cable.

Those were always secondary. It didn’t make flops into hits. Period. They still want hits and always will. More money. They can’t charge those of us who…you know?…actually go to their P&R more indefinitely to drive the whole train. Hits make more money. Guaranteed.

Tech is changing but the metrics really haven’t changed all that much. Somebody has got it in their head that studios are ok with flops…so therefore they never can have mistakes. It’s really comical.

And if you look…now it’s “of course the ones that flopped two years ago were legit but NOW they all make money”

Why? Because of unverified low ball budget estimates that help one guy? Or the still rather meager streaming revenues (at this time) that doesn’t indicate at all where the model will shake out?

That seems rather convenient.

We even got an admission of how badly they messed up their Star Wars yesterday…which was a 5+ year battle and was never in doubt. How long until that gets casually reversed?

Ugh. Im gonna put myself back on ignore now.

I do think it’s “personal”…someone is way too attached to marvel and not really accepting its downturn. Which is neither exceptionally surprising nor offensive to a fan. It’s choices and an overall decline in quality/value

Peace be with you all. 🙏🏻 namaste
 

brideck

Well-Known Member
So they make money post box office but we can’t quantify how much?

The way I read the end-of-year Deadline pieces (and other folks can correct me if I'm wrong here) is that it's literally recording (or perhaps merely estimating) the amount that Disney+ (and other outlets) is paying to the movie production side of Disney for that particular title. TP, etc. like to hand-wave this as imaginary and/or presumed far future earnings (the preferred joke is future sales of Blu-rays, I think?), but it's not that. It's literally money that is paid into the production house for that particular title when it goes digital. And that money comes from the revenue that streaming is already making from subs and/or individual digital purchases/rentals of that title.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Studios are a separate line item on financial reports from Steaming. It's very easily quantified what they wind up with at the end of the day. We can all argue to the moon and back and surely will. But that's the actual inarguable end point.

I listed the January 2023-March 2024 above. And granted Way of Water surely did some hard work covering it up a little. But that's how the fiscal period fell. They've been comfortably in the green ever since. Thanks to a LOT of hard work from IO2, Deadpool 3, Moana 2, Mufasa and now Stitch. This is why I've said the baseline goal is if they can get two movies to hit big, they have long tails that cover up subsequent quarters. If they can hit three in a year, the studio machine is churning along swimmingly.

We only have one so far, it will cover Elio, it won't cover Fantastic Four falling flat. Then the back half of the year needs Avatar to show up for the mess that will be Tron
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
And of course we're back to the normal tale of "post-theatrical makes no money, never has" from you.

They have for decades…and yet nobody ever used blockbuster rentals or digital direct purchases to directly offset box office underperformance…or the ads sold when something showed on cable.
Um, yes it most certainly was used as that is how many many movies for decades that under performed at the box office made money. Ancillary revenue has always been used to offset losses during theatrical, and the post-theatrical market is no different today. This is how MANY actors and writers get paid because their deals include backend residuals. If it wasn't counted then no actor or writer would ever get residuals and they'd be paid upfront, and yet most of Hollywood isn't, they are paid in the backend.

Those were always secondary. It didn’t make flops into hits. Period. They still want hits and always will. More money. They can’t charge those of us who…you know?…actually go to their P&R more indefinitely to drive the whole train. Hits make more money. Guaranteed.
There is a whole list of movies that became hits after they left a disappointing box office. Movies like Shawshank, Fight Club, even Blade Runner, all became hits AFTER they failed at the box office. Again today is no different, a movie can find an audience and make money after theatrical. Just because you don't think its possible doesn't mean it doesn't happen.

Tech is changing but the metrics really haven’t changed all that much. Somebody has got it in their head that studios are ok with flops…so therefore they never can have mistakes. It’s really comical.
Actually not true. Metrics have changed a lot due to how VOD and streaming is calculated, there was a whole strike that shutdown the industry recently (you may remember that) with this as one of its main sticking point. As actors and writers want the residuals they are owed from VOD and streaming. Whole pay packages have been setup with how movies perform on VOD and streaming, so you bet the metrics have changed. And studios have to be more transparent with actors and writers on how their work is performing. So if you think the metrics haven't changed as a result of that, then you haven't been paying attention.

And if you look…now it’s “of course the ones that flopped two years ago were legit but NOW they all make money”
Who is saying this? Stop making stuff up. No one is claiming that flops from 2023 are now making money. I'm sure that some have made some money, but no one claimed they turned a profit. So again stop.

Why? Because of unverified low ball budget estimates that help one guy?
Help who? This doesn't help anyone here other than to try to understand the change with the industry that is happening right in front of us.

Or the still rather meager streaming revenues (at this time) that doesn’t indicate at all where the model will shake out?
Meager by who's standards? Also you haven't been paying attention as the industry is moving to have streaming setup to replace cable. A ruling just the other day has paved the way for all streaming services to put road blocks up make it harder to cancel to prevent churn. So tell me again that streaming isn't here to stay and replace cable, as that was your last argument on why it would never replace cable because its too easy to cancel, well guess what that just changed.

So the industry is moving forward whether you want to accept it or not.

We even got an admission of how badly they messed up their Star Wars yesterday…which was a 5+ year battle and was never in doubt. How long until that gets casually reversed?

Ugh. Im gonna put myself back on ignore now.

I do think it’s “personal”…someone is way too attached to marvel and not really accepting its downturn. Which is neither exceptionally surprising nor offensive to a fan. It’s choices and an overall decline in quality/value

Peace be with you all. 🙏🏻 namaste
Obviously the whole post was directed at me, but this section clearly is.

I've said long ago that Marvel has under performed. Do I think its bad no, but I do think that it turned off many, and have said so many many times. I've also said that many checked out after End Game due to it seeming like a natural ending for many. So not sure what you mean not accepting its downturn. Do I think it recoverable, absolutely. But that doesn't mean I can't acknowledge when I think its having issues. I said long ago that many of the issues stemmed from Feige being checked out for a long time, and by the directive to pump out shows that lead to a glut of content. Its the same as I think for horror, too much content starts to turn people off. Great for fans, but not so good for causal fans as its just seems like that is all there is. So again I don't know where you get this idea that I don't accept its "downturn", I've had this same opinion for a long time. Sure maybe 5 years ago I had a hard time accepting, but you know people have growth and change right? I know its hard for some, maybe look into it, might help you.

But again always with the grievances with you. Let it go, it'll make you feel a whole lot better I promise you. Also funny how you talk about not accepting things when that is exactly what you do a lot of times with these discussions about post-theatrical. Hey pot meet kettle.
 

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