WDW July 4 2025

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Do you recall when Disney last had a non-COVID 5% drop in attendance? I ask because we could go back and see if they disclosed it in or around an earnings call. My thinking is that 5% is a large enough drop to warrant disclosure. And 10% would be immense - they'd be giving fund managers a heads-up. Especially if their CFO's last comments were +4% and +7%.

That said, I think few of us could visually recognize the difference in crowd size between 100 people, 97 people (-3%), and 95 people (-5%). Maybe 10% we could start to see it? Even then, I don't think I could do it myself. So it's hard to put stock in, say, photos showing people walking around the parks, without other context.

I don’t recall what the actual percentages where during the crash (which was essentially 2009-2011)…but as I’ve said in the past…they did a pretty effective job of maintaining attendance during the disruption with promos…while actually increasing pieces moving forward. Credit where due. They just got really stupid afterward.

I was in the sundial for part of the post 2001 drop (which was actually the after effect of the dot.con rupture that was delayed by the 2000 show…it wasn’t caused by planes)…and there was not as huge of a disruption as people believed. They had some substantial short term pain in early 2002 and then built back up pretty steadily for a couple of years. But they responded.

What they’ve been doing the last 3 years is laughable


“Here’s your dining plan (which nobody wants) if you pay full freight for the rest”
<crickets>

“Here’s a discount on the jacked up rate of your room if you pay for 4+ days of the jacked up tickets and your $60 buffets”
<crickets>

“Here’s more upsell night tickets to go with your off the charts rooms and day tickets and $60 buffets”
<crickets>

“Here’s the third different repacking/relabeling of line tickets to go with your $135 average daily ticket (concrete pass)”
<crickets>


It’s the base prices that are now out of whack. The always raise prices…but the comedy team of Bob & Bob seem to have finally exceeded the upper limit of what their market can support.
Excellent work .
There was always a fine line they were aware not to cross…the line between “expensive” and “not reasonable”
The old, evil, horrid management managed to not step on that rake.

Brave new world now.

It’s just the base prices…just not in the right spot. The problem is they’ve spent a decade promising investors that their name means prices don’t matter. That’s a pretty bad spot to put yourselves in if you get rough waters

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’d like to see the data on that 4% and 7% proclamation (we never will)…it just does not appear to be possible based on what the daily ops look like.

That math ain’t math in’

So the next quarterly should attribute any gains( if any) to “increased attendance and overall revenue corresponding”…
Correct?

Or is it gonna be buried under “cost cutting and price increases”?

Because that’s buried under the lead seemingly each time

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I agree with the bolded. It's not that noticeable with a drop of 3-5%.

A big tell for me that attendance is down is the amount of discounts they keep putting out plus the year long kids eat free deal. They don't put out discounts for no reason. I really do think they are struggling with attendance. They aren't the only ones. Universal is down as well as Six Flags parks. The bigger question is why are people not interested in parks as whole anymore?

Oh there’s no doubt they see numbers behind the scenes that they don’t like to necessitate the “levers”

There’s no way to talk around that…but they’ll try.

This is the same outfit that (from good authority) they were telling the largest travel wholesalers in 2017-2019 that they were eliminating discounts altogether. Do people not now this?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That said, I think few of us could visually recognize the difference in crowd size between 100 people, 97 people (-3%), and 95 people (-5%). Maybe 10% we could start to see it? Even then, I don't think I could do it myself. So it's hard to put stock in, say, photos showing people walking around the parks, without other context.

Just to go to this one a little

You’re correct…few could spot 5 bodies missing per 100…the net effect on the eyes isn’t much to spot.

But it’s possible.

Empty concourses is a different matter.

That would be anecdotal IF the shops, restaurants were juiced. Not the case at all…not even close

So eliminate that and what’s the only other possibility? Everyone in the park is in long lines…so nobody lagging in between them.

Let’s assume that the suggestion that people are pounding lines at a much higher rate than they traditionally had prior because the prices are higher and makes it more of a go to strategy…and also lightning lane increases the line push with the cost pressure it puts on the park.

That seems a possibility. Something reasonable that would also load your data and not indicate attendance drops via line tracking. I can see it.

The problem if that’s true is they screwed up. Disney parks were not built to be packed with ride queues. By design…the elements were supposed to support each other.
That’s bad for business. Nobody spends in line. They make free cash off lighting lane and lose a significant chunk of it with people in the lines too much. That’s stupid.
They never wanted somebody to enter…go to first line…the proceed clockwise to next line for 12 hours, and maybe hit the corndog stand twice a day for 10 minutes in between lines.

That’s a total Disney fail if that’s where it’s heading.

Everyone knows where cedar point is if they want that.

Packed lines was a loss. Once upon a time…a system was divised to lower that as much as possible…I bet some of us here have heard of it/remember it?

 

[Jrb1979]

Just to go to this one a little

You’re correct…few could spot 5 bodies missing per 100…the net effect on the eyes isn’t much to spot.

But it’s possible.

Empty concourses is a different matter.

That would be anecdotal IF the shops, restaurants were juiced. Not the case at all…not even close

So eliminate that and what’s the only other possibility? Everyone in the park is in long lines…so nobody lagging in between them.

Let’s assume that the suggestion that people are pounding lines at a much higher rate than they traditionally had prior because the prices are higher and makes it more of a go to strategy…and also lightning lane increases the line push with the cost pressure it puts on the park.

That seems a possibility. Something reasonable that would also load your data and not indicate attendance drops via line tracking. I can see it.

The problem if that’s true is they screwed up. Disney parks were not built to be packed with ride queues. By design…the elements were supposed to support each other.
That’s bad for business. Nobody spends in line. They make free cash off lighting lane and lose a significant chunk of it with people in the lines too much. That’s stupid.
They never wanted somebody to enter…go to first line…the proceed clockwise to next line for 12 hours, and maybe hit the corndog stand twice a day for 10 minutes in between lines.

That’s a total Disney fail if that’s where it’s heading.

Everyone knows where cedar point is if they want that.

Packed lines was a loss. Once upon a time…a system was divised to lower that as much as possible…I bet some of us here have heard of it/remember it?

That's the negative side of having a paid Fastpass system. Due to having to pay for it, guests now will want to get their moneys worth. To do that means spending most of their time on attractions.

 

[Chi84]

That's the negative side of having a paid Fastpass system. Due to having to pay for it, guests now will want to get their moneys worth. To do that means spending most of their time on attractions.

Free Fastpass+ was much better. And from the DAS threads it seems people with disabilities were able to work with that system even though it didn't give them all they wanted. Same with people who just used their three and then some lesser ones.

 

[Jrb1979]

Free Fastpass+ was much better. And from the DAS threads it seems people with disabilities were able to work with that system even though it didn't give them all they wanted. Same with people who just used their three and then some lesser ones.

The other benefit of the free Fastpass+ was that it wasn't a big deal if you missed a return time as it was free. People would still plan dining reservations regardless of FP. Now with paying for it many avoid planning dining cause it costs money to skip return times.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Free Fastpass+ was much better. And from the DAS threads it seems people with disabilities were able to work with that system even though it didn't give them all they wanted. Same with people who just used their three and then some lesser ones.

Disagree

That system was even worse. It promoted customers bogging up a virtual queue…which lead to even more lazy habits that didn’t necessarily encourage spending either.

Book their 3 from the toilet months in advance, show up at 11 o’clock, ride mine train, say it’s “too hot” and go park their carcass back at the hotel a few hours later.

Also rather pointless

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The other benefit of the free Fastpass+ was that it wasn't a big deal if you missed a return time as it was free. People would still plan dining reservations regardless of FP. Now with paying for it many avoid planning dining cause it costs money to skip return times.

I do agree with that…their desire to micromanage every second of the customers day to maximize each penny of a low paid employee may have had some longterm negatives for the bottomline

 

[Chi84]

Disagree

That system was even worse. It promoted customers bogging up a virtual queue…which lead to even more lazy habits that didn’t necessarily encourage spending either.

Book their 3 from the toilet months in advance, show up at 11 o’clock, ride mine train, say it’s “too hot” and go park their carcass back at the hotel a few hours later.

Also rather pointless

That wasn’t my experience.

 

[Chi84]

The other benefit of the free Fastpass+ was that it wasn't a big deal if you missed a return time as it was free. People would still plan dining reservations regardless of FP. Now with paying for it many avoid planning dining cause it costs money to skip return times.

I think the free system was more relaxed. I know we had our best vacations then.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think the free system was more relaxed. I know we had our best vacations then.

They didn’t want you to”relaxed”…only “cost efficient”

We still don’t know if that was a good business model…as decisions then will
Influence how travelers act going forward as well

 

[Jrb1979]

That wasn’t my experience.

It may not be that extreme but when pre-booking FP+ came along, many booked their 3 for certain times of the day. Mainly to avoid being in the park all day.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That wasn’t my experience.

Opinions vary

Trends really didn’t. The modifications to fastpass+ seem to be viewed as mistake by ole Bob…because it was not around long by Disney standards and they bailed out of it as soon as they could scorched earth style during a plague

 

[Chi84]

They didn’t want you to”relaxed”…only “cost efficient”

We still don’t know if that was a good business model…as decisions then will
Influence how travelers act going forward as well

Why would I care what they want if the system worked for me? We were able to relax and enjoy all aspects of WDW without paying as we do now for the same experience.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It may not be that extreme but when pre-booking FP+ came along, many booked their 3 for certain times of the day. Mainly to avoid being in the park all day.

Yep…and that wasn’t good for the gift shop
I think that was a very unintended consequence

And contrary to exactly what the OG fast pass did do

 

[Chi84]

It may not be that extreme but when pre-booking FP+ came along, many booked their 3 for certain times of the day. Mainly to avoid being in the park all day.

That’s exactly what we did. We’d go to a water park or the resort pool, maybe have lunch at DS and then hit AK for our three scheduled rides (and Nomad Lounge for dinner).

 

[Jrb1979]

Why would I care what they want if the system worked for me? We were able to relax and enjoy all aspects of WDW without paying as we do now for the same experience.

As a guest I agree. That's also where a lot of the disagreements happen here. Most view these changes from their own perspective and how it affects their visit.

From a business perspective, it's not good. They need people in the parks from open to close. To be in the gift shops and eating their meals at the park

 

[Chi84]

As a guest I agree. That's also where a lot of the disagreements happen here. Most view these changes from their own perspective and how it affects their visit.

From a business perspective, it's not good. They need people in the parks from open to close. To be in the gift shops and eating their meals at the park

What if we’re at a water park eating there and buying Moana buckets and shirts for the kids? Or if we get a margarita and lunch at the resort pool?

Does Disney discount money from water parks and resorts? I don’t get that impression at all. It seems like we’re helping by taking some of the strain off the theme parks.

 

[Jrb1979]

What if we’re at a water park eating there and buying Moana buckets and shirts for the kids? Or if we get a margarita and lunch at the resort pool?

Does Disney discount money from water parks and resorts? I don’t get that impression at all. It seems like we’re helping by taking some of the strain off the theme parks.

That's the thing as much as most want to believe, Disney wants the parks crowded.