Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Phroobar]

The cesspool of FB. Any post about TLOU, it’s there.

In case anyone didn’t watch, Ellie sort of “runs away” with another girl. It can be difficult to assume who is what in their hearts (and it doesn’t matter to the story) but the other girl was either closeted until very recently or bisexual, because she was in a relationship with a guy.

When the other girl reveals she is pregnant (and the two women are now “together,”) Ellie says, “I’m gonna be a…dad?” That can be taken different ways, but being gay myself and knowing how we refer to each other, my read was it was meant in a casual, jokey way. We men (especially of a certain age) often refer to friends as “she,” and it is not a reference to being trans. It’s a casual, jokey way of referring to each other. “John, did you hear about Martin the other night? Girl, she drank so much, we had to send her home in an Uber.”

Certain people assumed she had just declared herself trans, and lost their minds over the perceived “wokeness.”

They also mercilessly make fun of her looks. Must be very hurtful to the actress.

Just trying to keep up. What is TLOU?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Just trying to keep up. What is TLOU?

I think it’s the last of us?

Which is like last weeks fresh catch…anyone still into this?

 

[brideck]

I think it’s the last of us?

Which is like last weeks fresh catch…anyone still into this?

Yes, The Last of Us (most everything in the video game world ends up an acronym). It was brought up because Fantastic Four -> Pedro Pascal -> The Last of Us.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yes, The Last of Us (most everything in the video game world ends up an acronym). It was brought up because Fantastic Four -> Pedro Pascal -> The Last of Us.

Yeah I get it…not affect the box office in any way…but I get it

He had me sold with the red viper

 

[Disney Irish]

Your evidence of "praise" is from a pre-release promotional interview with the director?

Critics and audiences universally panned Leto's portrayal. That isn't to say Leto hasn't been good in other things. He's won an Oscar himself, after all.

That is just something I quickly found. Look if people had an issue with him in that role, fine. But I recall praise at the time (note this was almost a decade ago at this point so may not be able to provide examples beyond some articles like that one), so take it was a grain of salt.

To bring this back on topic: I doubt his casting will have an effect either way on Tron. I don't think he's box office poison (the general public is likely unaware of his off-putting, behind-the-scenes antics), but he isn't a draw, either. I suspect if they had cast, say, Ethan Hawke, the returns would end up being the same.

Whether a draw or not, I too believe he isn't going to be a determent to the box office of the movie. The movie itself, just like with Legacy in 2010, will likely stand on its own outside of any influence based on who is starring in it. Again with Legacy outside of Bridges himself most of the rest of the cast were fairly unknown outside of a few roles here and there, and none were big box office draws. So this is going to be no different in my opinion.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

The real problem for theaters is that they've been so dramatically undercut by Netflix and everyone chasing them. Combine that with the shortened window of time between a movie being in a theater and being able to watch it at home via something you're already paying for, and it's game over. Movie tickets would have to be stupidly cheap (on the order of $5 or less) if theaters were ever going to be able to compete with that, and I don't know if that will keep the lights on, unless doing that would double the audience size. It's hard to run a business when your primary good has reached commodity pricing.

Think about how Cap 4 just racked up 750m viewing minutes (6.3m+ views) in its first week on Disney+. Not all of those would have necessarily been from theater-goers were this 15 years ago instead of today, but that's got to be a lot of potential box office (>$60m at least? Who knows how many people are in the room watching those streams?) that just no longer exists.

There's been a lot of opinionating on the notion that the shortened theatrical window is hurting theater business.

I imagine this is true to a degree for sure, but plenty of movies still hit big.

The movie studios have the data we don't. If this were truly a major factor, surely they'd know that and adjust their releases accordingly? Disney has already made their theatrical windows a bit longer. That seems to be the exception though, not the norm.

Maybe it's just better for the movie producers. Movies are advertised on Apple with the tagline "Bring the theater home". The sooner a movie comes to streaming the more people may be willing to pay in order to see a new movie sooner. Thunderbolts as an example is priced $10 higher than any other new release right now on digital.

 

[Phroobar]

Yes, The Last of Us (most everything in the video game world ends up an acronym). It was brought up because Fantastic Four -> Pedro Pascal -> The Last of Us.

I've played the Last of Us and part of second game. I stopped caring after Joel died.

 

[brideck]

Maybe it's just better for the movie producers. Movies are advertised on Apple with the tagline "Bring the theater home". The sooner a movie comes to streaming the more people may be willing to pay in order to see a new movie sooner. Thunderbolts as an example is priced $10 higher than any other new release right now on digital.

Yeah, later in the conversation I came to the same potential conclusion. Maybe the producers are realigning around not needing as much from the box office end of things and are going to be satisfied with what they can get from the DTC market. I know there's a faction here that thinks that there's not enough real money in that, but I don't know about that...

If that is the case, then the theaters are well and truly hosed. There's just not enough demand from consumers to fill seats on the regular, just for event movies. The same thing kind of happened with live music (not sure where things currently stand as I don't pay super close attention) -- the mega tours sell out, but at the same time a bunch of other acts were canceling shows, etc. due to lack of ticket sales.

 

[TalkingHead]

I imagine this is true to a degree for sure, but plenty of movies still hit big.

The ones that hit have IP and/or spectacle. There’s no hits outside of that. Was watching Ocean’s Eleven the other day, a sizable hit when it came out. That movie would make far less today and would probably go direct to streaming. Maybe Wolfs (Apple) would be the equivalent.

Audiences, tech, social patterns, everything’s changed and the theater chains can only do so much to respond to that.

 

[FrontierSpirit]

Does it really matter what a movie makes at the box office? It’s not our money being spent. With Disney, It’s not like Walt Disney is alive making these movies or George Lucas is still making personal Star Wars films for us to care about.
Hard to care about a brand. The name Universal doesn’t mean anything to me.
The Nolan’s and Scorsese‘s are few and far between, there was a time the average movie goer had a top 5 directors list. That’s gone.

The money and the talent going forward will be on television, Films will matter for spectacle and legacy.
I don’t know, who really cares about the movie theater anymore? It’s just another of the many options people can choose to experience. Better stories, better characters are on your 85 inch Dolby surround sound theater experience at your house.

 

[Tha Realest]

Does it really matter what a movie makes at the box office? It’s not our money being spent. With Disney, It’s not like Walt Disney is alive making these movies or George Lucas is still making personal Star Wars films for us to care about.
Hard to care about a brand. The name Universal doesn’t mean anything to me.
The Nolan’s and Scorsese‘s are few and far between, there was a time the average movie goer had a top 5 directors list. That’s gone.

The money and the talent going forward will be on television, Films will matter for spectacle and legacy.
I don’t know, who really cares about the movie theater anymore? It’s just another of the many options people can choose to experience. Better stories, better characters are on your 85 inch Dolby surround sound theater experience at your house.

If you enjoy a particular movie or a particular type of movie, you should root for its box office success. I personally would have loved to have multiple sequels to Master and Commander and Devil in a Blue Dress, but they didn’t do well and that’s a one and done.

The people signing off on movies and their budgets need to be reassured they’ll recoup their investment.

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

We knew Stich was going to be a massive hit and we knew Elio was going to bomb. Thunderbolts underperformed in my estimations. And so did the latest Mission Impossible.
As far as what's coming up next, I think Jurassic will do poorly, compared to previous ones at least. I think F4 does better than Thunderbolts but not by much. I think Superman does the best of those 3, at least domestically

 

[Ghost93]

We knew Stich was going to be a massive hit and we knew Elio was going to bomb. Thunderbolts underperformed in my estimations. And so did the latest Mission Impossible.
As far as what's coming up next, I think Jurassic will do poorly, compared to previous ones at least. I think F4 does better than Thunderbolts but not by much. I think Superman does the best of those 3, at least domestically

I think the new Jurassic will do around $700-$800 million. They should have taken more time with the movie to allow people to miss the franchise and to make sure they had a great script. The whole production of Jurassic World Rebirth seems rushed.

 

[DKampy]

I think the new Jurassic will do around $700-$800 million. They should have taken more time with the movie to allow people to miss the franchise and to make sure they had a great script. The whole production of Jurassic World Rebirth seems rushed.

Jurassic was most definitely rushed…. Universal only began development a year and a half ago… while filming began just last June.., that is not much time for a special FX laden film such as this

 

[Baloo124]

Ok guys, I am officially DONE with Jurassic World. Finished. Washing my hands of this. Have been let down too many times with disappointments big & small beginning with Lost World. The studio keeps extending the teet of mediocre sequeliogy again and again, with no signs of stopping until audiences stop returning for yet another suckle. I am out.

Will always love the 1993 original, and it will forever remain among the films mentioned if discussing my all-time favorites in cinema history. Was mind-blowing then, remains timeless now. Spared no expense.

 

[Dranth]

I think Superman does the best of those 3, at least domestically

It would surprise me if it does, but admittedly, that might be my personal bias as I find the character boring.

Has there even been a solo Superman movie, even adjusted for inflation, that has cleared the $500 million mark? Maybe the 1978 one?

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Ok guys, I am officially DONE with Jurassic World. Finished. Washing my hands of this.

I’ve heard this from quite a few people, and its also how I feel myself, I love the books and also love the original movie but this series has gotten worse with each subsequent movie… unless the reviews are absolutely stellar I’m not even going to bother.

Another example of Hollywood killing the golden goose.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

It would surprise me if it does, but admittedly, that might be my personal bias as I find the character boring.

Has there even been a solo Superman movie, even adjusted for inflation, that has cleared the $500 million mark? Maybe the 1978 one?

Man of Steel made $670 million worldwide in 2013

Superman Returns made $391 million in 2006. That would for sure be over $500 million today.

Tracking for the new one has it opening between $130-$170 million domestically.

 

[Disney Irish]

It would surprise me if it does, but admittedly, that might be my personal bias as I find the character boring.

Has there even been a solo Superman movie, even adjusted for inflation, that has cleared the $500 million mark? Maybe the 1978 one?

Man of Steel unadjusted in 2013 got $670M WW, adjusted that is $929M.

 

[Dranth]

Man of Steel made $670 million worldwide in 2013

Superman Returns made $391 million in 2006. That would for sure be over $500 million today.

Tracking for the new one has it opening between $130-$170 million domestically.

Man of Steel unadjusted in 2013 got $670M WW, adjusted that is $929M.

Interesting. I didn't see either of those or remember hearing much positive buzz about them but if that holds, there could be some legit appetite for it.

Thinking about it honestly, I can also see it picking up some DC fans in general who really want this refresh to be the start of something good.

Personally, I still find it hard to believe it will do much better than any other movie this summer, but maybe I am being too pessimistic.