Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

I don’t know Leto received much praise for his Joker. In my estimation it’s the worst portrayal of that character, and that involves the Birds of Prey TV show and Gotham. Heck, even Cesar Romero was a better portrayal. Keep in mind, two actors have earned Oscars for portraying the character, and that does not include Jack Nicholson.

Well he did receive praise for his portrayal in Suicide Squad, not so much in the other movies. And it was just after Suicide Squad when he was attached to Tron.

I don’t know if the General Public cares because I do not believe he is a known commodity amongst the moviegoing Publix (eg he doesn’t help move the needle in terms of attendance). I only say this to say I believe it complicates his ability to robustly market this film. By many accounts he’s a cult leader. One of the few movies he was featured front and center in the marketing was Morbius, and we saw how that went.

Morbius had other issues outside of Leto. But he has received praise for his recent roles in Little Things, House of Gucci, and WeCrased all which released just prior. He is very similar to Adrian Brody in that way, where he is basically hit or miss at the box office.

Look I'm not defending the dude for this outside movie activities. I'm just not so sure he is actually a determent to the movie.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I’d moved on from following the box office but Elio’s numbers are so bad they’re hitting non-movie shows I watch and it’s becoming impossible to avoid, outside of a couple sequels they haven’t had a hit since Coco almost a decade ago. The golden goose seems to be dead.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Hindsight is always 20/20. If you asked anyone, even you, (and we did in this thread) how many $1B+ movies would there be in 2025, no one would have said zero until Avatar, again not even you. So no its not "easy to gauge", as no one expected a complete drop off in the box office that has happened so far in 2025 and may continue for the foreseeable future.

You wanna know who disputed that gobots has flatlined?

Take a guess…roll tape

 

[DisneyHead123]

I’d moved on from following the box office but Elio’s numbers are so bad they’re hitting non-movie shows I watch and it’s becoming impossible to avoid, outside of a couple sequels they haven’t had a hit since Coco almost a decade ago. The golden goose seems to be dead.

I think it’s more that the journey to the theaters will reversed. Instead of movie —-> maybe a tv series if it was really popular it will be more streaming series —-> maybe a movie if it’s really popular.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Given that W1 only got to $755M less than 12 months ago against Moana 2, I still question how much impact W2 will have on other movies. Not to mention that both IMAX and Dolby will be showing Zootopia 2, so its actually the other way around, Z2 will be snatching the broom away from W2 so to speak.

Bit of a difference audience…for sure

I thought zootopia would dunk a B…now that seems too optimistic.

As compared to Moana…it doesn’t line up as well to the “target test”

The stuff that moves product when there Isn’t a movie release is still the bellwether

And stitch just reaffirms that.

Moana moves product…hence the total. If Princess and the frog has a sequel (which someone should be asking why not? By now)…it wouldn’t sell as well.

Zootopia may be somewhere in the mid.

 

[Disney Irish]

You wanna know who disputed that gobots has flatlined?

Take a guess…roll tape

By Gobots, you mean Transforms? I don't think I disputed it flatlined, I think I pretty much called it as having run its course. I certainly didn't think that T1 would be a success last year, I thought it would fail and it did. I think pretty much everyone here saw that franchise had run its course. But that is beside the point of what we're talking about here in 2025.

This box office is really hard to predict right now, all the previous metrics used for prediction aren't working any more. Its too chaotic and the audience is too finicky these days, and maybe its changed too much to ever return to a previous "normal".

 

[Disney Irish]

Bit of a difference audience…for sure

I thought zootopia would dunk a B…now that seems too optimistic.

As compared to Moana…it doesn’t line up as well to the “target test”

The stuff that moves product when there Isn’t a movie release is still the bellwether

And stitch just reaffirms that.

Moana moves product…hence the total. If Princess and the frog has a sequel (which someone should be asking why not? By now)…it wouldn’t sell as well.

Zootopia may be somewhere in the mid.

And Z2 may still come close to $1B if not push over, as it certainly does well as a franchise outside the US (and not too shabby inside the US I would assume), so who knows.

PatF has certainly earned its flowers over the years, which is probably why they greenlit the sequel series.

As for the rest, as said its really hard to predict the box office these days. What should be slam dunks aren't performing as such. So you want to say something reaffirms the old models, well there are about 30 different movies that say those models should be thrown out because they aren't accurate. Because if any of us here, including you, were so good at predicting a movies success with any accuracy we'd be working in Hollywood and not posting on a Disney fan board.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And Z2 may still come close to $1B if not push over, as it certainly does well as a franchise outside the US (and not too shabby inside the US I would assume), so who knows.

PatF has certainly earned its flowers over the years, which is probably why they greenlit the sequel series.

As for the rest, as said its really hard to predict the box office these days. What should be slam dunks aren't performing as such. So you want to say something reaffirms the old models, well there are about 30 different movies that say those models should be thrown out because they aren't accurate. Because if any of us here, including you, were so good at predicting a movies success with any accuracy we'd be working in Hollywood and not posting on a Disney fan board.

Theyre are some surprises. But it doesn’t seem that tough to get in the ballpark right now.

But skippy keeps putting up aggregate reviews, Presale stats and trailer clicks and calls it “science”

I’m an engineer… I’m a fan of science…big fan.

But science ain’t wrong like 75% of the time with this “idiocy equation” stuff. There was another master calculation up thread today.

Entertainment consumption is governed by by “the other” part of the brain. It plays to the emotional. We’ve also seen the last few years it doesn’t play to the philosophical/ideological part of the brain either. We’re all leaning here.

Go with the gut. What is likely to land based what we know about humans? What is not. And the factor that is dismissed here is that people hold a grudge and make studios “pay” for their mistakes. String a few stinkers together and they aren’t buying a ticket for the next round…in general.

Back to regular programming

 

[Disney Irish]

Theyre are some surprises. But it doesn’t seem that tough to get in the ballpark right now.

But skippy keeps putting up aggregate retires, Presale stats and trailer clicks and calls it “science”

I’m an engineer… I’m a fan of science…big fan.

But science ain’t wrong like 75% of the time with this “idiocy equation” stuff. There was another master calculation up thread today.

Entertainment consumption is governed by by “the other” part of the brain. It plays to the emotional. We’ve also seen the last few years it doesn’t play to the philosophical/ideological part of the brain either. We’re all leaning here.

Go with the gut. What is likely to land based what we know about humans? What is not. And the factor that is dismissed here is that people hold a grudge and make studios “pay” for their mistakes. String a few stinkers together and they aren’t buying a ticket for the next round…in general.

Back to regular programming

And I'm an engineer as well, which is why I can follow the data. But one thing that many here discount is the chaotic nature of humans. Human nature is not as predictable as you make it seem, social science is VERY inaccurate for that reason. As humans tend to have very short memories for this stuff, so the grudge thing isn't as big or as long term as you try to make it seem. As if it was then IO2 wouldn't have gotten $1.7B less than 12 months ago.

I think what does have an impact is that once a human gets into a habitual repetition they tend to stick with it and its hard to break. Like being willing to skip a movie in theaters and wait for it at home.

 

[DKampy]

See I think F4 is going to do less than people think. I'm hoping to get out and see it, but I'm just not sure the box office is that big. I've said it before, but I don't think F4 are nearly as big with the general public as people think, and Marvel doesn't currently have the "Can't miss no matter what" going for it.

I know next to nothing about comic books….before the marvel movie came out…. all I recognize from the name Ironman was the song from Ozzy’s old band… but I knew of Fantastic Four since I was a child….even recognize Reed Richards as the smartest guy in the universe

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Just curious, are you aware of them because they already tried a few movies with the FF or because of the comics?

Because of cartoons. I haven’t watched previous movies.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Personally, he is one of the main reasons I may go see FF when it comes out.

Same.

Much criticism of TLOU centers on Ellie referring to herself as “a dad,” which I think most people don’t have the frame of reference to understand. That then comes around to Pedro supporting LGB and yes, fully, T.

 

[Disney Irish]

I know next to nothing about comic books….before the marvel movie came out…. all I recognize from the name Ironman was the song from Ozzy’s old band… but I knew of Fantastic Four since I was a child….even recognize Reed Richards as the smartest guy in the universe

I honestly think that Fantastic Four is more well known by the general public at this point then people want to admit. Just by the previous Fox movies alone I would think they are at least recognizable if not the cartoons.

 

[erasure fan1]

He was cast just after the Suicide Squad praise of his Joker, so it made sense at the time.

There was praise of his Joker? I know I didn't follow suicide squad talk all that closely. But most everything I had seen pointed pretty squarely at abomination. Lol, and I would agree. It wasn't until MODOK that Letos joker wasn't my least favorite comic portrayal ever. And I didn't actually dislike the movie like most everyone else. But man that was god awful. Just my opinion of course, but man was it awful. Lol

 

[Disney Irish]

There was praise of his Joker? I know I didn't follow suicide squad talk all that closely. But most everything I had seen pointed pretty squarely at abomination. Lol, and I would agree. It wasn't until MODOK that Letos joker wasn't my least favorite comic portrayal ever. And I didn't actually dislike the movie like most everyone else. But man that was god awful. Just my opinion of course, but man was it awful. Lol

Yes he did at the time, obviously peoples opinions will differ but here is an example of praise from the director -

"Suicide Squad" director praises Jared Leto's Joker: "the world stops"

David Ayer says the newest version of Batman's nemesis will knock everyone's socks off

www.cbsnews.com

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Midnight showings of JW are not nearby. Considered the 30-ish minute drive, but they’re too full already.

Will be awhile unless I go alone.

 

[Miss Rori]

Let’s not forget Glinda and Elphaba will be snatching wigs and PLF screens days before Zootopia 2 is released. That could dampen its box office.

It's possible, but I think there's less audience overlap between Wicked: For Good and Zootopia 2 than there was with Wicked: Part One and Moana 2 last year, and those two movies both did great business. So both these sequels can be big hits, and hopefully the rising tide that lifts all boats until Avatar: Fire and Ash, as the November/December schedule is otherwise short on potential big four-quadrant movies until after Avatar.

 

[BlindChow]

Yes he did at the time, obviously peoples opinions will differ but here is an example of praise from the director -

"Suicide Squad" director praises Jared Leto's Joker: "the world stops"

David Ayer says the newest version of Batman's nemesis will knock everyone's socks off

www.cbsnews.com

Your evidence of "praise" is from a pre-release promotional interview with the director?

Critics and audiences universally panned Leto's portrayal. That isn't to say Leto hasn't been good in other things. He's won an Oscar himself, after all.

To bring this back on topic: I doubt his casting will have an effect either way on Tron. I don't think he's box office poison (the general public is likely unaware of his off-putting, behind-the-scenes antics), but he isn't a draw, either. I suspect if they had cast, say, Ethan Hawke, the returns would end up being the same.

 

[Dranth]

Same.

Much criticism of TLOU centers on Ellie referring to herself as “a dad,” which I think most people don’t have the frame of reference to understand. That then comes around to Pedro supporting LGB and yes, fully, T.

Hadn't seen any of that. What a weird thing to be upset over.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Hadn't seen any of that. What a weird thing to be upset over.

The cesspool of FB. Any post about TLOU, it’s there.

In case anyone didn’t watch, Ellie sort of “runs away” with another girl. It can be difficult to assume who is what in their hearts (and it doesn’t matter to the story) but the other girl was either closeted until very recently or bisexual, because she was in a relationship with a guy.

When the other girl reveals she is pregnant (and the two women are now “together,”) Ellie says, “I’m gonna be a…dad?” That can be taken different ways, but being gay myself and knowing how we refer to each other, my read was it was meant in a casual, jokey way. We men (especially of a certain age) often refer to friends as “she,” and it is not a reference to being trans. It’s a casual, jokey way of referring to each other. “John, did you hear about Martin the other night? Girl, she drank so much, we had to send her home in an Uber.”

Certain people assumed she had just declared herself trans, and lost their minds over the perceived “wokeness.”

They also mercilessly make fun of her looks. Must be very hurtful to the actress.