Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

We seem to be in universal agreement that Elio is a massive box office bomb. And globally too.

But there's a thought mentioned occasionally that it may "leg out" and go on to almost break even like Elemental did. While it's only one day of data, the box office for Monday is not a good indicator that Elio is getting good word of mouth.

Elio dropped 58% domestically on Monday from its already anemic Sunday box office. As a comparison, here are the two other SciFi Pixar movies from recent years, plus an inflation adjusted Wall-E thrown in for fun. All four of these Pixar SciFi movies debuted on a non-holiday June weekend, with their first Monday in theaters also a non-holiday.

Elio's 58% drop is notably steeper than Elemental's 35% Monday drop, and also weaker than Lightyear's 52% drop and WALL-E's 50% drop. If Elio is going to leg out on good word of mouth, people need to start talking ASAP!

Elio (2025) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Elio (2025) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[TP2000]

It just seems to me that people often want to mistake poor choices, thought and/or execution for malice.

I can agree with that. That's a lesson from the Alissa Heinerscheid School Of Brand Destruction.

Ms. Heinerscheid didn't mean to destroy the sales of Bud Light and alienate almost its entire core demographic that had been buying the product for 50 years, but that's exactly what she did.

Ms. Heineirscheid wasn't being purposely malicious, she was just incredibly out of touch with her customers and had the unfortunate instinct to go on a podcast and brag about how much she disliked those customers. She was the epitome of living in an Elite Coastal Bubble while trying to sell to people who live outside her bubble. And she now looks like an idiot.

Disney and its various flagship movie studios (plus the Parks division too) made some of those same mistakes. And the mistakes were bragged about by both the talent (Rachel Zegler) or by smug Burbank execs bloviating on leaked Zoom calls with other execs. Luckily, it's apparent that Burbank and the senior execs now realize that mistake and are in the process of correcting it, while the production pipes get flushed out of all the previous mistakes that are too far along to fix.

None of that was malicious. But it was purposeful. And idiotic from a brand and profit standpoint. The box office proves it.

 

[Casper Gutman]

My point was that people THINK that it is. To the point that even Variety mentions it. I recall (it's been awhile) that since Elio was announced, it has always had that association. Right or wrong, that's how it was perceived.

Now, that could have an impact on viewership. It's not necessarily a popcorn topic.

I haven’t once heard that association before your posts - and I follow this stuff pretty closely.

Over the past couple pages, we seem to be getting several explanations for the modern box office that pretty much amount to more gentle articulations of the idea that the audience is getting stupider - unable to discern fact from reality in a media ecosystem drenching them with a firehose of misinformation and manipulative rage-bait.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Maybe someone can find an example of some marketing that was done to purposely antagonize their customers but I can't think of any and it certainly isn't widespread.

Now, I can think of attempts that ended up antagonizing customers, but it wasn't selected and purposely done for that goal, which is what I was responding to.

It just seems to me that people often want to mistake poor choices, thought and/or execution for malice.

People want to be victims. It justifies the things they want to do to other people.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

The title sounds like it's about frozen pizza.

^This!

Also, my husband looked at the AMC app yesterday and said, “Elio? Is that the one we saw when the kid goes into the water and turns into something?”

 

[Willmark]

People want to be victims. It justifies the things they want to do to other people.

That’s your take? People want to be victims?

As noted I think there’s a lot of people that said meh and shuffled off to do other things.

 

[Casper Gutman]

That’s your take? People want to be victims?

As noted I think there’s a lot of people that said meh and shuffled off to do other things.

Clearly you’ve put the whole thing behind you and moved on.

 

[Willmark]

Clearly you’ve put the whole thing behind you and moved on.

Sticking purely to the topic. As also noted its probably in Disney best interest to find out why people are skipping some movies. I offered up one possibility. You seem to believe its conspiracy. For all any of us know it very well could be. Doesn't change the core issue.

The next few weeks will be interesting to see what transpires with various movies.

 

[networkpro]

I haven’t once heard that association before your posts - and I follow this stuff pretty closely.

Over the past couple pages, we seem to be getting several explanations for the modern box office that pretty much amount to more gentle articulations of the idea that the audience is getting stupider - unable to discern fact from reality in a media ecosystem drenching them with a firehose of misinformation and manipulative rage-bait.

I would say that its more of that squishy accounting valuation term "Good Will" being significantly reduced.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Maybe someone can find an example of some marketing that was done to purposely antagonize their customers but I can't think of any and it certainly isn't widespread.

Now, I can think of attempts that ended up antagonizing customers, but it wasn't selected and purposely done for that goal, which is what I was responding to.

It just seems to me that people often want to mistake poor choices, thought and/or execution for malice.

I’ll grant you that point. Not everything is nefarious. Some of it is just stupid.

Then we have Kathy Kennedy…the perfect symbiosis of both at times

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Clearly you’ve put the whole thing behind you and moved on.

You want to talk about moving on? We should probably not go down that tunnel. We’re all gonna end up slinging poo like we’re residents of animal kingdom

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The next few weeks will be interesting to see what transpires with various movies.

Pretty sure they have another movie coming in the “bomb to not successful/good enough” range…

Waiting to see how that prediction goes but I’m on a heater so far this year…

 

[Willmark]

Pretty sure they have another movie coming in the “bomb to not successful/good enough” range…

Waiting to see how that prediction goes but I’m on a heater so far this year…

Fantastic Four is the one I'm the most curious about in terms of results. I suspect same for a lot of folks. Its got a lot going for it and everyone is in (near) universal acclaim in regards to the the retro look, the fact it has H.E.R.B.I.E in it, etc.

That said there are some headwinds and Marvel needs it to be a success. Add to this FF hasn't lived up to expectations at the box office previously. I must be an odd man out as I enjoyed both previous attempts aside from the inter-space cloud of Galactus. The first one was uneven but better than the second which just seemed "off" the whole movie.

Slightly further ahead?
Superman? I have no idea.

Dinosaurs usually do well, The JP movie seems the "safest" out of the three.

Either way its a possibility that there isn't going to be enough $$$ from the movie going public to go around for all three. Sure there might be some that will go see all of them, but is that the majority of people?

Either way in a week or so roughly we're going to find out.

 

[Casper Gutman]

You want to talk about moving on? We should probably not go down that tunnel. We’re all gonna end up slinging poo like we’re residents of animal kingdom

I absolutely never once pretended I’ve “moved on” from Disney. I’ve been very open about how important it is to me.

 

[Casper Gutman]

I would say that it’s more of that squishy accounting valuation term "Good Will" being significantly reduced.

That’s a symptom, yes.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Sticking purely to the topic. As also noted its probably in Disney best interest to find out why people are skipping some movies. I offered up one possibility. You seem to believe its conspiracy. For all any of us know it very well could be. Doesn't change the core issue.

The next few weeks will be interesting to see what transpires with various movies.

I am not talking about a conspiracy.

Are you suggesting a conspiracy of people allied against you and others like you? Kinda sounds like it.

 

[Willmark]

Are you suggesting a conspiracy of people allied against you and others like you? Kinda sounds like it.

I'm sure it does sound like that to you.

Probably shouldn't engage on the point but I'll make it short: I'm not on anyone's side.

If a movie isn't targeted at me or geared for me it has no material impact on my daily life. If someone enjoys something I don't more power to them. Even movies I dislike which is very few, if others get enjoyment from them, then great for them.

As far as Disney I don't have too strong of feelings one way or the other. Simply observing. My stance has largely been the same since I first joined the site. My wife is the Disney fan, I just like being on vacation. If anything my interest lies Pixar, SW and Marvel which to me are separate from Disney per se.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I absolutely never once pretended I’ve “moved on” from Disney. I’ve been very open about how important it is to me.

No…not talking about moving on from Disney

None of us would be here

Our individual grievances about specific titles would be a rabbit hole to go down

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Fantastic Four is the one I'm the most curious about in terms of results. I suspect same for a lot of folks. Its got a lot going for it and everyone is in (near) universal in regards to the the retro look, the fact it has H.E.R.B.I.E in it, etc.

That said there are some headwinds and Marvel needs it to be a success. Add to this FF hasn't lived up to expectations at the box office previously. I must be an odd man out as I enjoyed both previous attempts aside from the inter-space cloud of Galactus. The first one was uneven but better than the second which just seemed "off" the whole movie.

Slightly further ahead?
Superman? I have no idea.

Dinosaurs usually do well, The JP movie seems the "safest" out of the three.

Either way its a possibility that there isn't going to be enough $$$ from the movie going public to go around for all three. Sure there might be some that will go see all of them, but is that the majority of people?

Either way in a week or so roughly we're going to find out.

I think they all underperform. Some vastly. But that’s just a guess

 

[Disney Irish]

Dinosaurs usually do well, The JP movie seems the "safest" out of the three.

I've seen it in a early preview, it fell flat for my theater, no one left with smiles or talking about it after. ScarJo is good as always, but the rest just didn't hit.